Morgan: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

The weekly Roy Morgan result fails to replicate fully a remarkable drop in major support last week.

The only new item of federal polling this week has been the weekly result from Roy Morgan, which takes some of the edge off an unusual result last week in finding Labor up two to 28.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down one to 22.5% and the Greens down two to 12.5%. Labor leads the Coalition 54-46 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, in from 54.5-45.5, but by only 52-48 when preferences from last year’s federal election are applied, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted March 9 to 15 from a sample of 1654.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

704 thoughts on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

  1. hack

    As always, the question is: will the centre hold? Will the centre hold in the face of severe economic disruption? Will the centre hold if the US folds?

    We have to hope so.

    Why? What you believe is the “centre” is now so far to the right that the planet itself is now unbalanced.

  5. You might be interested in Tim Ayres’ speech for the John Curtin Research Centre Gala Dinner, Hack. Here’s an extract:

    At the pinnacle of the trade boom, the sort of leadership Curtin and Dedman had once shown – crisis-hewn, focussed on building Australian capability and economic resilience – was relegated to a distant history.

    Australia lost touch with its economic and strategic vulnerabilities – for “efficiency”.

    In my three decades in the manufacturing sector, efficiency was a central concern.

    But it is a poor substitute for strategy.

    For industrial policy.

    For the national interest.

    In industrial areas and outer suburbs, factories closed and jobs disappeared.

    Capability, lost. Critical facilities, lost. Skilled trades and apprenticeships, lost.

    But given that the 2000s commodities boom was time-limited, and the rolling crises that tend to expose national vulnerabilities would inevitably return – the “efficiency” orthodoxy sold Australia short.

    A generation of Liberals and Nationals weren’t troubled by the lack of a long-term plan, or about selling Australia short.

    Our opponents have never understood that strong industrial suburbs and regions, with good jobs and a sense of shared purpose, are the bedrock of an economy, and of any enduring democracy.

    They’ve never understood that democratic, social and industrial resilience are mutually reinforcing propositions.

    I made that case to successive governments, while free-market fundamentalists and cost-cutting consultants – like Angus Taylor – were in city boardrooms spoon-feeding corporate Australia a diet of PowerPoints that said critical facilities and productive factories should be closed and good jobs forfeited in a race to the bottom against low-cost, often subsidised economies.

    https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/timayres/speeches/speech-john-curtin-research-centre-gala-dinner

  6. Luigi Smithsays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:34 pm
    hack @ 8:02,

    Interesting post. The US may be the architect of its own economic downfall

    Always is, always was. For example, GFC or depression.
    Fortunately, they had Roosevelt during depression and US dollar as reserve currency later to thank for during GFC.

  7. SLsays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:35 pm
    You might be interested in Tim Ayres’ speech for the John Curtin Research Centre Gala Dinner, Hack. Here’s an extract:
    _______________
    Tim Ayres forgets the role of successive Labor governments in pursuing the free market vision.

    It’s clearly a lament, with no obvious alternative. Unless he goes on to argue for increased protectionism and that way lies an even worse fate.

  8. Player One says:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:31 pm

    I mean it more in an allegorical than electoral sense. We need shared self-belief. We need to have a common sense of what holds us together. Great change is upon us. Epochal change. Tectonic-scale change. The decay of an Empire is unfolding. This will affect us. We have to rise to meet that from a position of common purpose.

  9. Huge 2 days.

    If one nations vote goes berserk tomorrow and we get a Newspoll and they get ahead of labor.

    Btw USA AI mag 7 is worth trillions.

  10. hacksays:

    I mean it more in an allegorical than electoral sense.
    ____________________
    You mean Yeats meant it in an allegorical sense.

  11. Did you read the speech, nath?
    Are you familiar with the Future Made in Australia policy?
    Have you read the Ambitious Australia report or the Energy Industry Jobs Plan Review?

    If you haven’t it’s a pretty lazy argument to dismiss what Ayres is saying as:

    It’s clearly a lament, with no obvious alternative. Unless he goes on to argue for increased protectionism and that way lies an even worse fate.

  13. SLsays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:49 pm
    Did you read the speech, nath?
    Are you familiar with the Future Made in Australia policy?
    _________________
    I’m familiar with the policy. It’s a bit of red meat for nationalists. 2 billion a year is chump change, we can afford it to make people feel good and pretend that a manufacturing future awaits us.

    I doubt anyone high up in the government even believes in it or that it will do much.

    We are lucky we can afford to piss money up the wall like we do.

  14. newy boysays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:52 pm
    My question is: who or what is the “rough beast”?
    ________
    the anti christ.

  18. Luigi Smith says:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:34 pm
    hack @ 8:02,

    Interesting post. The US may be the architect of its own economic downfall.

    The postwar order is decadent. This order has been characterised by US dominance. That dominance has been enabled by monetary and military pre-eminence. However, neither monetary nor military pre-eminence is inevitable. If either of these is lost then the other will certainly also follow. When that happens the US will be reduced to post-imperial humility. It’s not possible to yet predict if this will happen, but the omens are not good for the US. As they say, “pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall”. We can see the excessive pride – the hubris – the conceit – the deceits.

    The fall…we have to wait and see.

    The Europeans, Canada, India, Japan…they seem to be betting the fall is occurring as we watch. China is waiting. Meanwhile, the UK, itself nostalgic for Empire, is uncertain what to do. We should have no such nostalgia. We should have a hand in the design of a new order. This should commence with a reconsideration of our relations with the US. They are faithless. They themselves have declared they are not to be trusted.

  19. Not sure if it’s been posted, but the latest from John Birmingham.

    https://aliensideboob.substack.com/p/so-youve-decided-to-lose-a-war

    Congratulations, sir. Congratulations.

    You’ve done it again. Nobody thought you would do it; a lot of people said don’t do it, very smart people, military people, constitutional people, the so-called experts, and yet here we are. You’ve started a war in the Middle East. Again with the Middle East. Always a mess over there. A total mess. But now it’s your mess, sir, which in a way is very strong leadership when you think about it.

    Take a moment. Breathe it in. That burning smell? That’s history, Mister President. That’s legacy. A lot of presidents, they want the legacy, they talk about the legacy, but they don’t get it. But you’ve got it now. You’re going to be remembered for this. Very strongly remembered. And that’s important. People forget that.

    You made history. You really did. You kicked over the hornet’s nest. Nobody even talks enough about the murder hornets anymore, they used to, for about ten minutes, and then they stopped, very unfair to the hornets frankly, and now the murder hornets of history are everywhere. They’re swarming, they’re very upset, and they’ve started stinging you in a very exposed area. Maybe the most exposed area. We don’t have to say what area. Everybody knows.

  20. hack says,

    “….. the US will be reduced to post-imperial humility. It’s not possible to yet predict if this will happen, but the omens are not good for the US. As they say, “pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall”. We can see the excessive pride – the hubris – the conceit – the deceits.”
    ————
    America’s new Manifest Destiny?

  21. Let’s imagine a world where the US has imploded into a medium power both economically and militarily. What will this new world look like. Which country, or countries, will be the economic and military leaders, China, India, both.
    What impact will that have on minor economies like Australia.
    The alternative of course is that the US will self correct post Trump.

  22. It is existential crisis for Iran and Lebanon whether you like it or not.

    Some say on PB say that they care about Iran women and girls but it appears they don’t care about Iranian people because they support Iran war.

  24. BB posted:

    Nath is telling porkies again.
    I rescued and released a native bird, Bubsy the Butcherbird.

    I loved that little guy.

    Yes, I remember that. It was actually very touching the way you looked after the little bloke after he was rejected by the rest of his family.

  25. China was to have past the US and become the largest economy more than ten years ago but it hasn’t happened yet. Likely they will but then what does the world look like when China is the strongest economically and militarily. Can they be trusted any more than the US.
    We can’t forget India. They have been growing at a very high rate.
    Interesting times ahead for humanity.

  26. Err China is struggling economically and is trying to get tariffs removed.

    All the crap talk they would overtake USA in economy’s worth,has evaporated.

    Japan trap of middle income.

    Btw The Iranian people are tipping off the Israelis where the top brass are.

    AI is a bonanza for USA.

  27. Ven says:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 9:17 pm
    It is existential crisis for Iran and Lebanon whether you like it or not.
    ______________________________________________

    No it’s not. It’s an existential crisis for Hezbollah and for the IRGC and the Religious totalitarians in Iran.

    The people who make up the Lebanese nation are far more than the Shi’ite clients of Iran and the people of Iran have a proud history going back thousands of years, including before Islam and, most likely, Judaism, existed.

  28. As per Western democracies, Iran is a terrorist state i.e. a country that spreads terrorism. It is not said in hushed tones but openly. Just think for a moment. What do you think will happen after this war has ended and Iranian women are liberated as some OB claim?
    For the next 20 years, terrorism, which was toned down, will be reignited.

  31. I think the United States will remain a formidable military and economic power for at least 250 more years. Anyone waiting for its fall by next wednesday lunchtime is not plugged in to rationalality. By sheer virtue of its population, the natural resources wealth, infrastructure manufacturing power and institutions means even if there is a steady decline…which is problematic, it would take centuries to unravel against its natural advantages……Think of Britain…now stripped of its empire is still a g7 nation despite its tiny size…..so with an economy that remains gigantic for the forseeable future, its military will also be gigantic for the forseeable.

  32. How the MSM crafts a story where a reporter’s question is actually an accusation, requiring the respondent to deny the statement is correct, allowing the MSM to then write a story “The respondent denied that…”. How dodgy can you get?

    Key Event 9h ago

    Albanese denies Australia is out of step with allies after release of joint statement

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is speaking in Whyalla, where he has travelled for the final day of the South Australian state election campaign.

    Overnight, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada released a joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz.

    The countries expressed their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage” through the strait.

    Asked whether the federal government was now out of step with key allies, Albanese said it doesn’t represent that “at all”.

    “We’re offering support and have support on the ground in the region, including an E-7 aircraft,” Albanese says.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-20/iran-israel-us-war-live-updates/106475836?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-273658

  33. @citizen at 9:44pm

    It seems to be the normal modus operandi where a media controlled by billionaires who want to turn the world into a billionaire paradise just basically lie, and nobody ever holds them to account for it, so they continue to lie in order to bring forth that paradise where they sail into the sunset on their megayachts laughing while us plebs remain behind to suffer and die.

    That’s their version of the “rapture”.

  34. ‘The Epstein Class’ by Anand Giridardas.(US Citizen)
    Brilliant book written after going through various Epstein files and photos
    1. How nobody talked about it for a long time.
    2. How these powerful, whom Epstein interacted with never had women around them when they discussed serious issues.
    3. How all social issues like healthcare, infrastructure got degraded while banks got bailed out can be traced to Epstein class.

  35. citizen says:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 9:44 pm

    How the MSM crafts a story where a reporter’s question is actually an accusation, requiring the respondent to deny the statement is correct, allowing the MSM to then write a story “The respondent denied that…”. How dodgy can you get?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-20/iran-israel-us-war-live-updates/106475836?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-273658

    _________________________________________________

    Yes I noticed it too this morning, strange seeings the ABC, SMH and others have been editorializing against “participating” and then seemingly editorializing against a refusal to participate.

    The link to the actual statement is below with an excerpt to the section everyone has noticed. I have no idea what “contribution” or “preparatory planning” means.

    “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.”

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026

    Now what’s perhaps more perplexing is that there has been zero media coverage (in Australia…) of the reception to the nations who have “express readiness”. Is the Japanese navy really going to send their ships in? Funnily, I could only find any meaningful take from Sky News. The URL alone says it all:

    https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/seven-nations-bend-the-knee-to-trump-agree-to-help-the-us-secure-the-strait-of-hormuz/video/9ad953859e3fb23eeb7f93c1d17c836a

  36. SLsays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:35 pm
    You might be interested in Tim Ayres’ speech for the John Curtin Research Centre Gala Dinner, Hack. Here’s an extract:

    At the pinnacle of the trade boom, the sort of leadership Curtin and Dedman had once shown – crisis-hewn, focussed on building Australian capability and economic resilience – was relegated to a distant history.

    Australia lost touch with its economic and strategic vulnerabilities – for “efficiency”.

    In my three decades in the manufacturing sector, efficiency was a central concern.

    But it is a poor substitute for strategy.

    For industrial policy.

    For the national interest.

    In industrial areas and outer suburbs, factories closed and jobs disappeared.

    Capability, lost. Critical facilities, lost. Skilled trades and apprenticeships, lost.

    But given that the 2000s commodities boom was time-limited, and the rolling crises that tend to expose national vulnerabilities would inevitably return – the “efficiency” orthodoxy sold Australia short.

    A generation of Liberals and Nationals weren’t troubled by the lack of a long-term plan, or about selling Australia short.

    Our opponents have never understood that strong industrial suburbs and regions, with good jobs and a sense of shared purpose, are the bedrock of an economy, and of any enduring democracy.

    They’ve never understood that democratic, social and industrial resilience are mutually reinforcing propositions.

    I made that case to successive governments, while free-market fundamentalists and cost-cutting consultants – like Angus Taylor – were in city boardrooms spoon-feeding corporate Australia a diet of PowerPoints that said critical facilities and productive factories should be closed and good jobs forfeited in a race to the bottom against low-cost, often subsidised economies.

    https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/timayres/speeches/speech-john-curtin-research-centre-gala-dinner

    “Our opponents have never understood that strong industrial suburbs and regions, with good jobs and a sense of shared purpose, are the bedrock of an economy, and of any enduring democracy.

    They’ve never understood that democratic, social and industrial resilience are mutually reinforcing propositions.”

    Even though I understand why L-NP did it, I never understood why they went with the policy of “to cut the nose to spite the face”. The reason I heard why they did what they did is because if they reduce industrial base, the reduce Union strength.
    Now the industrial base is less than 8%. Scratching my head emoji.
    And I think one of the reasons PHON support became strong is because of the destruction of Industrial base.

  38. Economically the rise of China to be the dominant economic power now seems inevitable. The preference for Chinese currency as preferred medium for world trade will follow, as it has every time in the past when the leading trading nation changed. Otherwise would still be counting our wealth in Spanish Reals.

    US errors like Iran may speed this process up but won’t change the outcome. Genuine reform in USA might reverse the trend – USA is still a powerful country. But the US political system seems unwilling to undertake reform.

    Military power doesn’t last forever, especially when technology advances fast. Russia inherited the former Soviet Union’s vast arsenal after the end of the cold war in 1990. Now 35 years later the Ukraine war has proven a lot of it has scrap value in the face of a modern drone threat. Russia inherited a superpower’s nukes, but it is no longer a superpower.

    Long before this century is out the same will be true of the US and especially its fleet. It is building ships (and subs) far more slowly than it is retiring them.

  39. Socratessays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 11:00 pm
    Economically the rise of China to be the dominant economic power now seems inevitable. The preference for Chinese currency as preferred medium for world trade will follow, as it has every time in the past when the leading trading nation changed. Otherwise would still be counting our wealth in Spanish Reals.

    US errors like Iran may speed this process up but won’t change the outcome. Genuine reform in USA might reverse the trend – USA is still a powerful country. But the US political system seems unwilling to undertake reform.
    __________________________
    Anyone with any money in China wants to get it out and into the USA so it cannot be taken from them at the whim of a party official.

    As long as that situation remains the USA will remain on top.

  40. newy boy at 7.03 pm

    “My view: no, the Israeli-US attack on Iran is doing nothing to distract Putin from his invasion of Ukraine.”

    Correct. All of Netanyahu’s recent wars since the Hamas atrocity of 7 Oct 2023 have had the result of making Ukraine’s defence harder. Remember that Orban is a long-term political associate of Netanyahu. Their links go back a long way. Putin would not need to have encouraged Netanyahu’s relentless war crimes directly; Orban may have done it.

    For a Russian view of Trump’s war and its likely trajectory by Andrei Kortunov see:

    https://journal-neo.su/2026/03/19/andrey-kortunov-for-the-conflict-to-end-the-sides-need-to-negotiate-some-compromises/

    If there was any downside for Putin’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine of Trump war, then Kortunov would have mentioned it. He was opposed to Putin’s 2022 invasion.

    He also notes that, as a fact, “currently there is no indication that a change of political regime in Iran is possible in the near future”.

    His view of Trump’s war is similar to that of Socrates and others: it will continue with little constraint except for the exhaustion of munitions, but others won’t join in it.

  42. After telegraphing his intentions for a week or so, it seems Trump is firming on the idea of sending a Marine expeditionary force to occupy Kharg Island, to, in his mind, force the Iranians to cry ‘uncle’. (rather than start popping missiles and drones at everyone’s oil production) Has anyone told him Kharg is inside the SoH? Dumb as d0&$%it

  43. Socrates at 11 pm

    “But the US political system seems unwilling to undertake reform.”

    That is putting the problem very mildly, when it is a chronic lack of capacity to reform.

    There are many dimensions to this, from the archaic constitution to the dominance of money politics and instituitionalised political ossification, particularly re Democrats.

    While there are some individual cases of younger reformist politicians beating old party hacks in the Democrats, it is hardly a strong trend, when it certainly needs to be.

    Historians may look back at this as one of Obama’s main negative legacies, that he was unable to prevent the failed run of Hillary Clinton and the failed Biden Presidency, with the result that Trump has undone whatever domestic legacy he might have hoped for.

  44. davidwh at 11.23 pm

    Yes, I once heard Prof Galtung outline it in a talk at Curtin Uni nearly 20 years ago. I can’t remember the exact date, but probably a year or two before Obama became President. He said there were broadly similar processes of fragmentation in the US as had occurred in the USSR, though the manifestation of those processes would take quite different forms.

    Here is an article with a photo of Galtung and a summary of his classic 1965 study of why the mass media focus overwhelmingly on conflict, ignoring other phenomena:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/18/johan-galtung-news-principles-journalists-too-negative

  47. Dr Doolittle

    His view of Trump’s war is similar to that of Socrates and others: it will continue with little constraint except for the exhaustion of munitions, but others won’t join in it.

    Yes that is my view. The US forces attacking Iran now are completely lacking in ground units and any real staying power. Its an impressive air show but the Iranians would surely realise that if they can outlast the Tomahawks and Patriot supplies, the USA can’t beat them. The widely discussed reinforcement of 2500 Marines is less than the IRGC strength in a single large Iranian city, never mind the Iranian army. So they wait.

    With USA in no condition to control the area for long, why would any of the smaller NATO allies risk it? They would be on a hiding to nothing.

    To put the US forces in the Mid East now in perspective, whilst the air strength is impressive, the US force in Desert Storm (500,000) was ten times larger than all US forces in the Middle East now (50,000) and the naval fleet was twice as large. Whereas the Iranian army now is 340,000 plus 130,000 IRGC.

    It took US army logistics six months to build up supplies for Desert Storm. The USA spent four weeks building up supplies for current operations.

    So it is clear that the USA has made no serious attempt to build up forces or supplies in the Mid East region to mount a major ground campaign.

  49. Cowards, we will remember: Trump slams Nato over lack of support in Iran war
    Donald Trump slammed Nato allies as “cowards” for not backing the US-Israeli war against Iran, saying the alliance is a “paper tiger” without the US.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/donald-trump-slams-nato-cowards-lack-support-us-iran-israel-war-2884962-2026-03-20

    US President Donald Trump on Friday sharply criticised Nato allies over their lack of support during the US-Israel war against Iran, calling the longtime US allies “cowards.”

    In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “Without the US, Nato is a paper tiger!” He accused member nations of refusing to join what he described as a fight to stop a “Nuclear Powered Iran,” adding that the conflict had now been “militarily won” with minimal risk to them.

    “Now that fight is militarily won, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuvre that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk,” he wrote.
    “Cowards, and we will remember,” Trump added.

  50. Trump stunned by intelligence claim that Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay: Report
    According to a report by the New York Post, US intelligence suggested Mojtaba may have had a long-term relationship with a man who served as his childhood tutor. The news outlet said the claim was revealed to it by two intelligence community officials and a person close to the White House.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-stunned-by-intelligence-claim-that-iran-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-may-be-gay-says-report-2882957-2026-03-17?utm_source=Taboola&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=recirculation

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