Morgan: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

The weekly Roy Morgan result fails to replicate fully a remarkable drop in major support last week.

The only new item of federal polling this week has been the weekly result from Roy Morgan, which takes some of the edge off an unusual result last week in finding Labor up two to 28.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down one to 22.5% and the Greens down two to 12.5%. Labor leads the Coalition 54-46 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, in from 54.5-45.5, but by only 52-48 when preferences from last year’s federal election are applied, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted March 9 to 15 from a sample of 1654.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

704 thoughts on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

  1. Jordan Baker has written a great editorial for the SMH headlined “Australian troops have died for a US lie before. An unhinged Trump wants us to go again” and concluding with, “As a wartime leader, Trump has sunk to the occasion. He has exposed himself as a hollow man playing a deadly game of bluff poker while the world is forced to underwrite his futile strategy of going fast and breaking things.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australian-troops-have-died-for-a-us-lie-before-an-unhinged-trump-wants-us-to-go-again-20260318-p5oml7.html

  3. NSW State poll from Resolve..

    Labor leader Chris Minns remains the preferred premier with 38 per cent of voters while Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, who replaced Mark Speakman in November, is on 17 per cent.

    The survey of 1100 voters, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from March 9 to 14, is the first time One Nation’s votes have been tallied outside the “other” category, which includes the Greens and independents.

    Resolve director Jim Reed said One Nation was proving to be a nationwide threat.
    “We are now asking people if they will vote One Nation overtly, rather than just including them in an ‘other’ category as they have certainly been on the rise, and this latest poll now shows their primary vote nipping at the heels of the major parties,” Reed said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/cannibalising-labor-s-vote-one-nation-s-insurgence-into-nsw-20260317-p5ob5g.html

  4. There goes another justification for the war…

    Two top intelligence officials directly contradicted one of the Trump administration’s justifications for going to war with Iran, repeating on Wednesday the intelligence community’s conclusion that Iran was years away from developing missiles capable of hitting the United States.

    Testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, and John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, would not say whether the intelligence community had determined that Iran would be able to launch such long-range missiles within six months.

    Ms. Gabbard said that Iran “could” combine technology from its existing space program with its missile development capabilities to “begin to develop” an intercontinental ballistic missile “before 2035, should Tehran attempt to pursue that capability.”

    But when pressed by Senator Jon Ossoff, Democrat of Georgia, Ms. Gabbard refused to provide an assessment of the threat Iran posed.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/world/middleeast/tulsi-gabbard-senate-testimony-iran-war.html

  6. “As a wartime leader, Trump has sunk to the occasion. He has exposed himself as a hollow man playing a deadly game of bluff poker while the world is forced to underwrite his futile strategy of going fast and breaking things.”

    Donald “Tell” Trump is a poker player’s dream.

  7. I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled. They need to have a more relaxed attitude to their religious observance, mainly revolving around not murdering in cold blood those who don’t toe the mediaeval Mullah’s line.

  8. C@tmomma, Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:45 am:

    I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled. They need to have a more relaxed attitude to their religious observance, mainly revolving around not murdering in cold blood those who don’t toe the mediaeval Mullah’s line.

    C@tmomma – with you there. I reckon you’re putting it mildly. 😉

    I realise this jars with my simultaneous view that toppling the Tehran regime needs to wait until Russian forces are expelled from Ukraine, but these are the cognitively dissonant times we are living in. It’s what comes from having outright insanity elected as POTUS, and outright evil (Putin) disgustingly indulged by too much of the world.

  10. Greens not doing well in NSW at 10% but this is a bit harsh imo lol

    “The survey of 1100 voters, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from March 9 to 14, is the first time One Nation’s votes have been tallied outside the “other” category, which includes the Greens and independents.”

  12. Abs unemployment and population stats out today.
    Remember any population stats will not include the massive amounts of overstayers the fed Labor government has failed to kick out exacerbating the rental crisis and inflation and interest rate increases.
    Labor 32% One nation 27% last Newspoll will next one ,given interest rate increase and labor stuffing up fuel supply organisation show One nation ahead of labor?

    Btw not a wise idea the other day Iran threatening to kill Israel leader as 3 leaders in Iran are now dead since and the attempt and threats to kill Trump me thinks kicked off this war along with nukes.
    Massive bombing in Iran is occurring a good thing.

  13. Morning all. BK thanks for the link to the SMH editorial, which I agree is a good summary. We have seen these same lies before with the Iraq invasion in 2003.

    The cost of support would be a lot higher too. Howard supporting USA in Iraq cost dozens of lives. Labor supporting USA in Iran in 2026 would probably costs hundreds of lives.

    A single Hobart or Anzac class warship has a crew of 180 to 200, and they could easily be sunk on convoy duty in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is a much bigger foe, with much more difficult geography.

    Economically we are also more at risk from disrupted oil supplies. At the peak of Bass Strait and Timor Sea drilling we were once 70% self sufficient in fuel. Now we are 10% self sufficient in fuel. Best case we might get to 20% in petrol, but less in diesel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz reduces world oil supply by 20%, mostly in Asia.

    Meanwhile our non-ally Israel is attacking Iranian fuel infrastructure.

  16. Regime change rarely goes as planned, regime change through an illegal and illegitimate war even less likely to imo

    Escalating things by attacking Iran’s gas infrastructure, shared with Qatar? risks further escalation and global economic fallout, especially with Iran saying they’ll attack oil and gas facilities in the region in response

    It’s a mess based on another WMD type lie and partly driven by political timelines i.e. Netanyahu facing election this year and US midterms. No wonder the polling confirms how unpopular it is here

    Have a great day

  17. HBG Says
    Greens not doing well in NSW at 10% but this is a bit harsh imo lol

    Anatomically speaking, The Greens won’t do much better than 10% till they relax the sphincters an opposite ends of their alimentary tracts.

  18. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Europe tells Trump Iran is ‘not our war’: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/not-our-war-europe-says-no-trump-2026-03-18/

    World Health Organization Prepares for Nuclear Scenario, Including Weapons Use, in Iran: https://united24media.com/latest-news/world-health-organization-prepares-for-nuclear-scenario-including-weapons-use-in-iran-16995

    Ukraine Drones Wipe Out Most Tanks at Key Russian Military Fuel Depot in Krasnodar: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72140

    Russia Sends Oil and Gas Tankers to Crisis-Hit Cuba, Defying U.S. Blockade: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/18/russia-sends-oil-and-gas-tankers-to-crisis-hit-cuba-defying-us-blockade-ft-a92264

    Ukraine Moves Beyond the Black Sea With New Ocean-Going Drone Fleet: https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-moves-beyond-the-black-sea-with-new-ocean-going-drone-fleet-zelenskyy-says-16985

    QatarEnergy reports ‘extensive damage’ after missile attacks on Ras Laffan industrial city: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatarenergy-reports-extensive-damage-after-missile-attacks-ras-laffan-industrial-2026-03-18/

    Rand Paul says he’s a ‘no’ vote on Mullin for DHS secretary: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5790090-rand-paul-markwayne-mullin-dhs-secretary/

    Trump’s DHS pick, Markwayne Mullin, never served in military but talks as if he did: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/trump-dhs-markwayne-mullin-military

    The World Is on Fire. Gas Prices Are Rising. Republicans Are Trying to Make It Harder to Vote: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/03/senate-save-america-act-voter-suppression/

    Fed votes to hold rates steady, notes ‘uncertain’ impacts from Iran war: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html

    US wholesale prices rose by a surprisingly hot 3.4% last month, the most in a year: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-tariffs-iran-war-federal-reserve-fab21616b87c6d7dbe4c09e869406000

    Trump hasn’t made up his mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material, sources say: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-americans-iran-nuclear-material/

    Dow tumbles more than 750 points to new closing low for 2026, fueled by inflation woes; Fed holds steady on rates: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    China makes energy security ‘reunification’ offer to Taiwan amid Middle East war: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-makes-energy-security-reunification-offer-taiwan-amid-middle-east-war-2026-03-18/

  20. I’d also still like to see the Iranian regime replaced by something more moderate, but am not optimistic.

    The 130,000 IRGC in Iran is the equivalent of the Waffen SS in Nazi Germany or the NKVD in the Soviet Union or the FSB in Russia. It is designed to protect the regime, not the people.

    As long as Iranian leaders are removed but the IRGC remains in place, nothing really changes. They have put down multiple popular uprisings, with many deaths.

    I don’t know how we get a negotiated settlement, but one is needed. Even the USA would struggle to keep the Strait of Hormuz safely open, unless Iranian forces on the north shore were removed. There are tens of thousands there, so that means a major war.

  21. I do honestly think it’s strange that the government has been dead quiet on putting out any advice on Lebanon or support for the Lebanese community during the wholesale destruction of their capital city right now. I understand that the Lebanese community are treated like rural Aboriginals in the coast because some of them have boats and go to The Entrance to ride them, but they are also a substantial proportion of our population and I’ve worked with, worked for, and know a lot of great and generous people of all different religions from the Lebanese community, it is starting to upset me how the suffering of their families can just be completely ignored by the gov and the media. It seems like a failure of multiculturalism to me that we can’t even acknowledge their humanity.

  22. On food and fertiliser, the risk is large but the situation is less catastrophic for Australia. Use of fertiliser can double crop production on rural land. Yet even if we had none and our food crops were halved, Australia normally exports 70% of what we grow. We could still feed the country, though exports would drop. The impact on food prices would be major though.

  23. The minister says Australia has enough fertiliser in the country and on the water to carry the country through the upcoming cropping season.

    (ABC live)

  25. Um, yeah…
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033581038589370505
    https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/did-donald-trump-predict-9-11-2001-a0598b

    This is the book that he “wrote”:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_America_We_Deserve

    Kari (f)Lake cops it in the neck again.
    https://www.newsbreak.com/the-independent-517119/4545254495769-embarrassing-loss-for-trump-and-doge-after-judge-orders-kari-lake-s-voice-of-america-to-bring-back-1-000-fired-workers

  27. The more that leaders publicly rebuff Trump, the more electorally popular they’ll become. Hastie, for example, has surprisingly set the tone here. Granted, with an almost certifiably mad man in the WH, it would be better not to go for the jugular, but crawling to him is a poor substitute. To see his lap-dogs, such as MAGA Mike Johnson, sucking up to him is pathetic. History will judge him (Johnson) very poorly. With the midterms due in eight months, more and more hitherto silent critics will somehow find a backbone.

  28. SL 8:24

    Thanks. I appreciate that we will not suffer a loss of fertiliser. I was just pointing out that even if Australia had zero fertiliser Australia would still have enough food to feed itself. We grow enough food to feed over 60 million people.

  29. PP, mostly an upbeat wakey post from you this morning, except for the final bit: “Massive bombing in Iran is occurring a good thing.”

    I marvel at your ability to find the cloud in the otherwise silver lining.

  30. HUUUUGE change in direction for the Albo led ALP government as it embraces protectionism – what ON and some coalition have been talking about for a while:
    “For Australia to compete, succeed and prosper in this decade – we have to upgrade to a new economic model. “We have to build an economy that is more resilient, more self-reliant and geared to our national strengths. This is about making more things here.”
    Declaring there would be ­reforms announced in coming days to shield Australians from the “worst of global uncertainty”, The Australian understands a government support deal is close to being unveiled to help keep the two remaining oil refineries open beyond 2027. The deal with Viva Energy and Ampol is likely to be a restructure of the Fuel Security Services Payment designed by the Morrison Coalition government that will include more funding being released to the refinery owners when they are not making money. The package is expected to include measures that would support the refineries to produce lower-carbon fuels over time.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/treasurer-warns-middle-east-war-could-push-australian-inflation-above-5pc/news-story/545ac01536164442b3a9ff25f95e4483?amp

  31. Spectator: BREAKING: Four Palestinian women killed in Iranian missile attack
    ————————————-
    That Iran cares little for Palestinian civilians shouldn’t be a surprise. I wonder tho if the Spectator covered the deaths of 12 Palestinians in an IDF strike on Gaza (still in a ceasefire) a few days ago.

  33. HH, you would be very aware (considering your handle) that Coalition claims to protectionism is utterly hypocritical. They will protect one thing above all else – their interests.

  34. Bean, wrt Gas refineries on fire. Our gas companies wouldnt use this war to increase the cost of Australian gas in the Australian economy, would they?
    I wonder how quickly the SA government can bring on line the next lot of renewable projects in the pipeline? Does it start to alter the dynamics on Hydrogen power?

  36. Diesel up to 2.86 at local. Luckily I needed to fill up a couple of days ago. Unluckily, I think that saving is a false one – prices are only going up.

  37. It is a bit like Trump was playing poker with Iran. Trump has 17 cards holding three kings, pairs of Aces, Jacks, 8s, 7s and 5s. Iran only has 4 cards but they are four 3s – the four of a kind that is the strait of Hormuz. They are both all in.

  38. Team Katich – The wholesale price yesterday was 266 cents so that is not a surprise. I will post todays’ prices in about 40 minutes when they are released. I expect higher again.

  39. sprocket_, thanks for the polling on the Iranian war.

    I’d say it shows two things, support is broadly split on whether not its a good thing, support is broadly against us joining.

  41. “I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled.”

    she says as she bags the remaining fragments of her kids in the acid rain

  42. Good Morning! Here’s Your Daily News and Views Roundup

    Treasury can’t predict how Trump ends this war, with or without allies. In a major pre-Budget speech today, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will reveal the latest Treasury thinking. Chalmers sees this crisis as “a reason to go further, not slower” on reform. By David Speers
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/donald-trump-nato-anthony-albanese-iran-andrew-hastie-budget/106464586

    This will be a reform budget: Chalmers vows change on May 12. Shane Wright
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-will-be-a-reform-budget-chalmers-vows-change-on-may-12-20260318-p5ou8d.html

    National cabinet to shield Australia from war’s global impacts: PM
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/us-iran-war-live-updates-iranian-intelligence-minister-killed-in-israeli-strike-iran-threatens-gulf-energy-assets-after-south-pars-gas-field-hit-20260318-p5oxbh.html

    The Albanese government needs to stop being afraid of the gas industry before the current fuel crisis goes to waste. A failure to seize the moment amid soaring energy prices and act in the May budget could make voters turn their anger toward the federal government. Greg Jericho
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2026/mar/19/australian-government-gas-industry-iran-war-fuel-crisis

    The RBA is asking Australians to show restraint. They may want to take their own advice. We are all living in uncertain times, so we expect decisions to be made with a high degree of caution. That applies to the central bank and interest rates. Nicki Hutley
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/17/rba-interest-rate-hike-australia-inflation-economy

    ‘A bigger scar’: prolonged war in Middle East could slash $16.5bn from Australian economy, Chalmers warns. Treasurer likens impact of conflict to recent major shocks, including global financial crisis and Covid pandemic.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/anthony-albanese-national-cabinet-iran-war-fuel-shortages-self-reliance-economic-resilience

    SMH Editorial Australian troops have died for a US lie before. An unhinged Trump wants us to go again
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australian-troops-have-died-for-a-us-lie-before-an-unhinged-trump-wants-us-to-go-again-20260318-p5oml7.html

    Fuel supply chain coordinator to be proposed at national cabinet meeting. Jane Norman
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/albanese-calls-national-cabinet-fuel-shortage-fears/106467140

    Price gouging at petrol stations may not be illegal, experts warn as Iran war fallout hits hip pockets
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/petrol-price-gouging-cost-of-living-pressure-oil-prices-iran-war/106467554

    Oil tankers to Australia have never stopped, industry assures, though they are in uncharted waters
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/fuel-shipments-safe-april-complicated/106464430

    Experts say there are some practical things we can do to help get more out of a tank of fuel and to make our travel more sustainable.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/expert-tips-on-saving-fuel-reduce-travel/106464820

    ‘It’s not panic-buying’: farmers defend stockpiling as regional Australia bears brunt of fuel crisis
    Independent retailers are struggling to get fuel from the majors and say farmers have only responded to soaring prices and lack of availability
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/australia-fuel-crisis-farmers-rural-regional-diesel-prices-supplies-availability

    The ‘catch-22’ protecting Robodebt bureaucrats from criminal prosecution
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/why-robodebt-bureaucrats-have-evaded-prosecution/106468572

    Sam endured four miserable years in a disability group home. The NDIS was meant to change that – but reports of neglect are surging
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/ndis-disability-group-home-neglect-ntwnfb

    Federal police are warning that their investigations into building industry crime and corruption are being hampered by threats from organised crime figures and a culture of fear and silence still permeating the building industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/witnesses-threatened-afp-sounds-underworld-alarm-on-cfmeu-probe-20260318-p5p58f.html

    Could a fracture in conservative politics cost right-wing parties a seat in SA’s parliament?
    By Chief Elections and Data Analyst Casey Briggs
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/sa-could-fractured-right-wing-politics-cost-them-parliament-seat/106464114

    This party has no MPs and no candidates. So why are NSW voters so infatuated?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/this-party-has-no-mps-and-no-candidates-so-why-are-nsw-voters-so-infatuated-20260317-p5oivo.html

    ‘Cannibalising Labor’s vote’: One Nation’s insurgence into NSW
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/cannibalising-labor-s-vote-one-nation-s-insurgence-into-nsw-20260317-p5ob5g.html

    Singh beats Smith: How Indian-born entrepreneurs are driving a Sydney business boom
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/singh-beats-smith-how-indian-born-entrepreneurs-are-driving-a-sydney-business-boom-20260315-p5oal8.html

    Liberals can’t lay a finger on Labor. Now there’s someone who can – Pauline Hanson
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-can-t-lay-a-finger-on-labor-now-there-s-someone-who-can-pauline-hanson-20260317-p5ob2o.html

    In what has been described as a potential first for South Australia, some residents are preparing to vote in two separate elections on Saturday. As well as voting in the state election, about 30,000 First Nations South Australians are also eligible to vote in the second SA Voice to Parliament election.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/some-first-nations-south-australians-to-vote-twice-this-weekend/106464282

    South Australian premier told gun lobby he wouldn’t tighten firearm laws despite agreeing to federal crackdown. Hopes for uniform nationwide gun control reform fade as states walk back federal cabinet commitment after Bondi beach massacre.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/gun-lobby-assured-south-australian-government-had-no-plan-to-tighten-firearm-laws-despite-state-agreeing-to-federal-crackdown

    Tasmania’s opposition and crossbench have combined to pass three integrity and transparency motions in parliament. The government will consider whether to begin releasing cabinet documents after 30 days, which the parliament has called on it to do.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/transparency-motions-pass-parliament-without-government-support/106470250

    Cross River Rail boss tells Queensland CFMEU inquiry union purposefully caused delays and budget blowouts
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/cross-river-rail-chief-evidence-at-cfmeu-inquiry/106463212

    CFMEU disruption did not blow North East Link’s budget, says Victorian premier
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/cfmeu-disruption-did-not-blow-north-east-link-s-budget-premier-says-20260318-p5oo0z.html

    Call for tougher anti-vilification penalties as hate flyers target Perth LGBTQIA+ community
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/homophobic-flyers-left-in-perth-letterboxes-lgbtqia-targeted/106468902

    Mathias Cormann, finance minister under Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison and now the head of the OECD, has used a Productivity Commission inquiry into the 2018 GST deal to argue it was a “sound long-term investment” and should be maintained. Shane Wright
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cormann-vs-the-rest-why-former-finance-minister-is-still-backing-this-60b-blowout-20260318-p5okil.html

    The EU’s Hungary problem won’t be solved even if Viktor Orbán is ousted. The bloc’s foremost troublemaker could lose April’s election, but the headaches he’s caused will not necessarily disappear with him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/viktor-orban-hungary-parliamentary-election-eu-ukraine

    Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and the meeting looming over Middle East war. By Laura Tingle
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/trump-xi-meeting-looming-large-over-middle-east-war/106465096

    Looking for leverage: China keeps close eye on US politics after summit delay. Beijing seeks to decipher effect of Iran war on US midterms and best way to apply pressure when Trump meets Xi
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/looking-for-leverage-china-keeps-close-eye-on-us-politics-after-summit-delay

    Sales catalogues obtained by the ABC showed “commercial” drones listed on the online retail platform Alibaba described as “cruise missiles” and “suicide attack drones”. Some of the listed drones had near-identical dimensions and capabilities to the Iranian-made Shahed drones that have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz. The ABC could not confirm if the sellers were genuine, but when it notified Alibaba the company removed the listings and said it suspended the sellers’ accounts. 😡
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2026-03-19/low-cost-autonomous-cruise-missile-drones-listed-on-alibaba/106448410

    Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story. Emanuel Fabian says his routine report became focus of wager with $23m at stake on online prediction platform.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-israeli-journalist-missile-strike-wager

    Trump, hit by the karma bus, wins on battlefield but loses on diplomacy
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-hit-by-the-karma-bus-wins-on-battlefield-but-loses-on-diplomacy-20260318-p5okj1.html

    The US once held huge sway in Cuba. Now it wants a new deal. Without oil from Venezuela, the island nation is in crisis. Now Trump says he will ‘take’ it. How did Cuba get here? What’s next?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/unfinished-business-why-trump-floated-a-friendly-takeover-of-cuba-20260226-p5o5sx.html

    Joe Kent joins growing list of Donald Trump allies distancing themselves from Iran war
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/trump-losing-trust-with-republicans-allies-in-iran-war/106467072

    Trump wants out of this costly war. The Iranian regime has him trapped. Clinton Fernandes
    Academic and former intelligence officer
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/trump-wants-out-of-this-costly-war-the-iranian-regime-has-him-trapped-20260316-p5oazv.html

    Analysis: The US right wing can forgive Trump for anything – except his deeply unpopular war. Iran war has split some Maga conservatives from Trump and alienated young voters. What will it mean in the midterms?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/trumps-deeply-unpopular-war

    What you need to know about Iran today, with Matthew Doran
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/iran-israel-war-daily-news-briefing/106446786

    Trump needs to reject Netanyahu’s quest for a forever war. Kenneth Roth
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/18/trump-netanyahu-iran-war

    Trump now calls war reporting ‘treason’. His attacks on the press are escalating fast. The US president is using the language and the strategy of authoritarians once again. Margaret Sullivan
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/18/trump-media-war-reporting-treason

    Fire damage, clogged toilets, and sinking morale: USS Gerald R Ford to set sail for repairs in Crete
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/onboard-fire-uss-gerald-ford-aircraft-carrier

    US contractors stranded in Iraq under threat of imminent attack: ‘We are sitting ducks’
    More than 200 Americans at Balad site say they have no evacuation plan as fears grow of a post-Ramadan assault
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/us-contractors-stranded-iraq-iran

    Trump’s DHS pick, Markwayne Mullin, stokes fears of more Fema cuts. Senator backed restructuring the disaster agency but dodged questions on staffing, leaving officials uneasy over readiness and leadership.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/trump-dhs-markwayne-mullin-fema

    Markwayne Mullin strikes softer tone but defends Trump policies in Senate hearing. Trump pick to replace Kristi Noem signaled he’d avoid her mistakes but defends president’s immigration campaign
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/senate-markwayne-mullin-nomination-dhs

    Fed holds interest rates steady as Iran war drives up oil prices and inflation fears. Jerome Powell resists Trump pressure as policymakers weigh energy shock against a weakening US jobs market
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/18/fed-interest-rates-iran

    Trump waives US shipping law for oil and gas in bid to lower prices
    Move comes as president attempts to mitigate rising price of oil while carrying out war on Iran
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/trump-shipping-oil-gas-law

    US financial regulator issues long-awaited cryptocurrency guidance. SEC now classifies crypto into five categories, with securities laws only applicable to one: digital securities.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/18/sec-cryptocurrencies-securities-rules

    Jeffrey Epstein’s elite relationships visualised: the prince, the sultan and the politicians
    Guardian analysis of more than a million emails reveals financier’s deep and longstanding ties with the wealthy and powerful
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/mar/18/jeffrey-epsteins-elite-relationships-visualised-the-prince-the-sultan-and-the-politicians

    Judge indicates he might shut down Trump’s $400m White House ballroom plan
    ‘I’m struggling to see this as an “alteration”,’ judge said amid lawsuit seeking to halt construction until president has won congressional approval
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/18/trump-white-house-ballroom-plan-lawsuit

    In war-weary Lebanon, anger at Israel and Hezbollah takes hold
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/in-lebanon-anger-at-israel-and-hezbollah-takes-hold/106456504

    Israel faces stiff Hezbollah resistance as it attempts to push deeper into Lebanon. IDF engaged in intense fighting with militants in at least three key areas in battle for control of border towns
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/fighting-intensifies-israel-hezbollah-southern-lebanon

    As Israel invades again, Lebanon faces more turmoil & possible civil war. Here are 3 ways this could go
    https://theconversation.com/as-israel-invades-again-lebanon-faces-more-turmoil-and-possible-civil-war-here-are-3-ways-this-could-go-278408

    Iran threatens Gulf energy facilities after Israeli attack on its largest gasfield. Revolutionary Guards say they will strike infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar after South Pars field hit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/iran-gulf-energy-facilities-israel-south-pars-gas-field-saudi-arabia-uae-qatar

    Explainer: Middle East war: why attacks on gasfields like South Pars are a major escalation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/middle-east-war-why-attacks-gasfield-south-pars-are-a-major-escalation

    Inside the White House plan to sell the Iran war online
    The administration is bucking decades of decorum by depicting the Iran war as a violent video game.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/18/white-house-iran-game-online-00834373?utm_medium=bluesky&utm_source=dlvr.it

    Trump wants to strongarm Nato into a new Gulf war. Here’s why Europe must resist. If Europe is sucked into this illegal conflict with Iran, public support for rearmament could collapse – and only Putin will benefit. Armida van Rij Senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/18/donald-trum-nato-gulf-war-europe-iran-vladimir-putin

    5 fights to watch out for at summit of EU leaders. Two wars, climate clashes and a €90 billion standoff with Hungary overshadow an EU meeting on reviving Europe’s economy.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/5-fights-to-watch-out-for-eu-leaders-summit/

    Spain takes victory lap as EU coalesces around Sánchez’s anti-war position
    Spanish Foreign Minister José Luis Albares says the bloc is finally standing up in defense of the rules-based order and against “a unilateral war that is not our own.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-takes-victory-lap-as-rest-of-the-eu-coalesces-around-pedro-sanchez-anti-war-position/

    Pro-MAGA president fights pro-EU prime minister for control of Poland
    The conflict between Karol Nawrocki and Donald Tusk could sour the country on staying in the EU.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-power-struggle-explodes-over-e44b-eu-weapons-loan-safe-karol-nawrocki-donald-tusk/

    Hungary braces for a post-election battle
    As the election approaches, attention is also turning to how the loser might react.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-election-viktor-orban-peter-magyar-aftermath-outlook/

    Macron blasts mainstream parties for working with ‘dangerous’ forces in local elections
    https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-local-elections-mainstream-parties/

    Enter the disrupter: Far-left Mélenchon seizes momentum in French elections
    The France Unbowed leader wants to build on his party’s success in local elections to become a leading presidential rival to Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen on the far right. It’s a race few see him winning.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/enter-the-disruptor-french-far-left-jean-luc-melenchon-seizes-momentum-in-national-elections/

    ‘Put him on trial’: pro-Kremlin loyalist turns on Putin in rare outburst. Ilya Remeslo sends Telegram post titled ‘Five reasons why I stopped supporting Vladimir Putin’ to his 90,000 followers
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/pro-kremlin-loyalist-turns-on-putin-ilya-remeslo-russia

    Four Indonesian military officers have been arrested over their alleged involvement in an acid attack on human rights activist Andrie Yunus.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/military-officers-arrested-over-indonesia-acid-attack/106471030

    Why don’t Australian banks offer 30-year fixed-rate home loans? Borrowers would benefit from them
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/should-banks-offer-30-year-fixed-rate-home-loans-new-report/106465276

    Record property profits see home owner wealth surge despite rising interest rates
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/home-owners-record-equity-australian-real-estate-domain-report/106459336

    What is a healthy birth weight? Urgency to close the gap for all Indigenous babies
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/closing-the-gap-report-shows-little-progress-march-2026/106437910

    Tropical Cyclone Narelle could be ‘biggest system in living memory’ when it crosses Queensland coast, authorities warn
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/tropical-cyclone-narelle-north-queensland-landfall

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to intensify into a category four system before making landfall this week.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/cyclone-expected-to-make-landfall-far-north-queesland/106465088

    Cyclone Narelle tracker map: When will it hit the Queensland coast?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/cyclone-narelle-map-tracker/106470988

    Australia’s environment minister wants to ban fishers and drillers from more ocean – and avoid a culture war. Conservationists hope Murray Watt’s review of national marine parks will ‘right the wrongs’ of previous downgrade of protection
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/17/australia-environment-murray-watt-ocean-protection-fishers-drillers

    Electric vehicles: what to know if you’re considering an EV
    https://theconversation.com/electric-vehicles-what-to-know-if-youre-considering-an-ev-278419

    The ACF has found, via satellite imagery, a dozen cases in Queensland and NSW of old bushland containing endangered habitats being cleared without any of the necessary referrals for approval.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/epbc-land-clearing-koala-unaware-farmers/106452434

    Australia is escalating its fight against the booming illicit tobacco and vape trade with tougher penalties, new offences and expanded police powers. States and territories are being pushed to shut illegal shopfronts as authorities also target online sales and nicotine pouches.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/tobacco-crime-law-changes-for-illegal-vape-cigarette-market/106469048

    Should tobacconists even exist? Minister poses radical question as illegal cigarette sales soar
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/should-tobacconists-even-exist-minister-poses-radical-question-as-illegal-cigarette-sales-soar-20260318-p5omcx.html

    Venezuela defeats United States 3-2 to win first World Baseball Classic
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/world-baseball-classic-final-venezuela-united-states/106470290

    Sean Penn receives ‘Oscar’ made from damaged Ukrainian rail carriage after Zelenskyy meeting
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2026/mar/18/sean-penn-oscar-ukrainian-rail-carriage-zelenskyy

    Is this the world’s first quantum battery? Australian scientists say so. Researchers say their prototype is a big step towards fully functioning batteries with rapid charging times.
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/mar/18/world-first-quantum-battery-australian-scientists-say

    A world‑first quantum battery charges faster when it gets bigger – but it’s tiny and only lasts nanoseconds. James Quach Science Leader, Quantum Batteries Team, CSIRO
    https://theconversation.com/a-world-first-quantum-battery-charges-faster-when-it-gets-bigger-but-its-tiny-and-only-lasts-nanoseconds-276755

    Australia was once a world leader in innovation. A new report shows the system is now ‘broken’
    https://theconversation.com/australia-was-once-a-world-leader-in-innovation-a-new-report-shows-the-system-is-now-broken-274012

    We asked experts about the most responsible ways to use AI tools – here’s what they said. Three years on from the release of ChatGPT, two broad camps have formed: those people who refuse to use it, and those who use it every day. Use AI as a brainstorming partner and organizer, but don’t outsource your judgment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/ng-interactive/2026/mar/18/how-to-use-ai-tools-expert-guide

    Men can get out of the manosphere. Here’s what former Incels say about why they left
    https://theconversation.com/men-can-get-out-of-the-manosphere-heres-what-former-incels-say-about-why-they-left-278312

  43. Vile Shlomo says:
    Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 9:24 am
    “I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled.”

    she says as she bags the remaining fragments of her kids in the acid rain

    = emotive slop

    Anyway, good to know you back the continuation of the mediaeval Iranian regime.

  44. The Gold Coast Council is considering strict new measures for the homeless, who mainly congregate in the Southport CBD, including three-month bans for those engaging in anti-social behaviour. While it is a problem for businesses, moving them will merely result in another suburb being forced to bear the brunt. Mayor Tom Tate is a Trump lover, and his approach is part of a broader “compliance-led strategy” rather than a welfare-first approach. Apparently, a person may complain to the police/Council officers if they feel “agitated” by the sight of the homeless, which could result in a move-on notice. Meanwhile, plans are
    proceeding apace to build a Trump Tower on the Glitter Strip.

  45. I don’t get why so many Australians believe/assume Israel is an ally. It is not. Never has been. We owe them nothing. Not even the ‘moral’ position we owe Taiwan, the hidden promise of support when we don’t say such things out loud (although under Trump that has probably gone too – they best arm up and quickly). We don’t get oil from Israel.

    We shouldn’t fall for US propaganda that just because they are an ally of Israel. My ally’s ally is my ally has NEVER been true.

    It feels to me a bit like Thatcher/Reagan support for Apartheid. They could only ‘justify’ stretching the ally cloth so thinly across South Africa on the spurious grounds that the Boers were anti-Soviet too.

  46. From HH’s links this morning;

    “Russia Sends Oil and Gas Tankers to Crisis-Hit Cuba, Defying U.S. Blockade:”

    And Chump will do absolutely nothing about it, because he can’t.

  47. The Labor supporters on this blog, who support Iran war, are wrong because

    1. It is an illegal war. It is not authorised by either US Congress or UN.
    2. It was started on false pretenses i.e. Iran is an imminent threat to US.
    3. Whether one hates Iranian mullahs or not is not important. Netanyahu and Trump are acting as judge, jury and executioners. They are conducting extra judicial killings.
    4. It is against International rules of engagement.
    5. None of the US Allies are willing to help US in this war.

  48. newy boy says:
    Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 7:29 am
    C@tmomma, Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:45 am:

    I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled. They need to have a more relaxed attitude to their religious observance, mainly revolving around not murdering in cold blood those who don’t toe the mediaeval Mullah’s line.

    C@tmomma – with you there. I reckon you’re putting it mildly.

    I realise this jars with my simultaneous view that toppling the Tehran regime needs to wait until Russian forces are expelled from Ukraine, but these are the cognitively dissonant times we are living in. It’s what comes from having outright insanity elected as POTUS, and outright evil (Putin) disgustingly indulged by too much of the world.

    Yeah, with you there, newy boy. It’s called nuance and not many people are capable of it.

    Also, the Iranian and Russian regimes are propping each other up. So, who in their right mind can support returning to the status quo ante bellum? Russia, Iran, and China, working together to take over the world? Yes, I get it that Trump wants to be a party to that project, but do you have to give in to the antics of Russia, Iran and China just so you can poke Trump in the eye? There’ll be plenty of time for that in the Mid Terms. Because America still has free and fair elections. For the moment anyway.

  49. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 9:27 am
    Vile Shlomo says:
    Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 9:24 am
    “I’m still happy to see the Iranian regime dismantled.”

    she says as she bags the remaining fragments of her kids in the acid rain

    = emotive slop

    Anyway, good to know you back the continuation of the mediaeval Iranian regime.

    If we don’t support C@tmomma on regime change, then we are supporters of Trump regime. This is not only emotive slop but most egregious thing to say.

  50. Team Katichsays:
    Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 9:13 am
    Bean, wrt Gas refineries on fire. Our gas companies wouldnt use this war to increase the cost of Australian gas in the Australian economy, would they?
    I wonder how quickly the SA government can bring on line the next lot of renewable projects in the pipeline? Does it start to alter the dynamics on Hydrogen power?
    __________________________________________

    Australian gas spot prices are still <$11/GJ, last year they averaged $12.76/GJ.

    SA doesn't have a lot of wind and solar in the pipeline:

    It doesn't need much more, and they won't make much money until these batteries are built:


    https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-changing-shape-of-the-nem-demand-has-responded-to-price-at-least-modestly/

    Hydrogen is a long way of (if ever) being used to generate electricity, except in edge cases. One such edge case was the previous SA govt policy which was intended to create demand for H2 which could then be used as a feedstock for green steel at Whyalla. However, the SA govt seems to have given up on green steel.

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