The latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor down three points on the primary vote to 29%, as One Nation moves back ahead of the Coalition after the latter drew level in the poll conducted amid last month’s leadership change, respectively being up a point to 24% and down a point to 22%. The Greens are up one point to 12%. No two-party preferred result is provided, but my own estimate based on previous election preferences has Labor’s with a lead over the Coalition of somewhere between 52-48 and 53-47.
This is the first Resolve Strategic poll to gauge personal ratings for Angus Taylor, who has a combined very good and rating of 35% compared with 26% for poor and very poor, compared with 27% and 50% for Sussan Ley in the last poll. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 36% and down three to 52%. He leads Taylor 35-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 38-22 over Ley a month ago. The poll had a sample of 1803, and was presumably conducted last Sunday through to Saturday.
What? Something like,
‘Heshbollah should not have fired large volleys of missiles in the general direction of Israel in support of murderous and genocidal theocracy that funds, arms, trains them as well as supplying them with tens of thousands of missiles. Going on the record, if those missiles kill anybody at all, they kill random civilians.’
Oh. And while we are at the talking bit: ‘Israel should not have launched a ferocious bombing campaign, should not have forced 800,000 people out of their homes, and should not have launched a ground invasion while threatening to keep Lebanese territory.’
Say all that to feel better? Something like that?
The fact of the matter is that heshbollah and israel have a shared vision statement: ethnic cleansing which in modern parlance is genocide.
The wheels of justice grind…
Actually, politics is meant to be fair. In a democracy, anyway. That’s kind of what democracy is supposed to mean.
It just isn’t fair, whether it’s meant to be or not.
ajm, Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 6:21 pm:
Spot on. PP, and anyone else running that anti-Europe line, is running Trumpian false propaganda, for Putin’s benefit and at Ukraine’s expense.
Total support for Ukraine since 24 February 2022:
Europe: about 250 billion USD
USA: about 180-190 billion USD (all before Dec 2024)
“The Coalition opposition and the Greens in Victoria have banded together to pass a bill in the upper house that would give the state’s anti-corruption watchdog “follow the money” powers to combat corruption in the construction union.
The power would allow the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (Ibac) to investigate corrupt conduct by third parties and private subcontractors connected to government funding.
It follows the release of a report by corruption fighter Geoffrey Watson SC last month, which included allegations that corruption involving the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) cost taxpayers up to $15bn.
The bill also increases transparency by better enabling the agency to conduct more public hearings.
It will now move to the lower house, where it is expected to be voted down, given Labor has a commanding majority.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/mar/18/australia-news-live-trump-iran-nato-hormuz-interest-rates-rba-cost-of-living-jim-chalmers-economy-fuel-price-crisis-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-69ba3c418f0833896286a9ba#block-69ba3c418f0833896286a9ba
Looking at the YouGOV SA poll, you can see that at 3PP stage that One Nation and Liberal vote equal Labor’s vote. But over 40% of people who prefer the Liberals prefer Labor over One Nation and a third of One Nation voters prefer Labor than the Liberals.
@Ante Meridian at 6:40pm
Of course, political interaction with voters in a democracy is meant to be fair, just internal party politics very rarely is.
I recall a scene from The Crown where Harold Macmillan said as such to Anthony Eden when he replaced him as Prime Minister after the Suez crisis.
I remember seeing some stats a while ago that engineering construction costs in Victoria are actually lower than in some other states where the CFMEU has a smaller footprint. There’s an awful lot of assertion and not much fact in the slagging of the CFMEU for delays and costs.
However, I did see some comments that there was an organised crime cell in the Victorian CFMEU that was not present in the union in the other states – but this may have mainly been a few insiders enriching themselves rather than the union as a whole benefiting. Given the huge amounts of money involved this may have merely caused a blip in total costs.
My comments seem to get randomly deleted
Greetings, Labor people!
I am a real life ON voter.
I’m here to tell you that you are wrong about almost everything.
Labor voters are a small group of hard core bubble dwellers (like poor William’s blog denizens) but in the large part they are classic low information voters who vote the way their parents did, or think the party represents the working class, or else they are easily swayed by advertisements. ON voters are usually much better informed than this. They generally get their information from a much broader perspective than the left standards of the ABC, Guardian, SMH, etc. We generally know not to trust mainstream media of either stripe.
Are ON voters right about everything? Definitely not. But we are nowhere near as wrong as Labor voters. As for the Liberals, they will hopefully soon be relegated to minor party status. As for the Greens… the less said the better.
You seem to think ON voters are stupid and racist because you’re so deeply entrenched in your bubble that you are utterly unable to imagine any other reason.
Not many of us expect that ON would be a competent government, but it will do us for now if it helps to remove the corrupt LibLab duopoly. It’s a step in the right direction.
The left represents nothing but decay and destruction (which you seem to think is progress). The people of Australia are waking up to this fact. You will not, because you are embedded in a black hole of leftism.
The trends that the good Mr Bowe sets out on this blog will most likely continue. The right will continue to rise and the left (and fake right) will continue to wither.
I may or may not return to this unfortunate blog to read your responses (if any). If I do, it will be for the sport. If I don’t, it’s because I know that nothing will ever change your mind and I’m just wasting my time and yours.
Good luck, and please try to poke your noses out of your bubble.
Thank you for reading. I hope it wasn’t too scary for you.
Love this image. But boy, Sean Penn has certainly aged since I last saw an image of him.
I saw a comment a while ago from Possum on Bluesky that PHON is basically an “angry button” you push if you feel the system as a whole is not delivering enough for you personally, rather than an identification with then PHON world view.. Having pushed the angry button, most people go back to their previous voting habits with their later preferences.
Confessions, Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 6:54 pm:
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FMD that was a great post!
On 1 March labor on 32% of vote One nation on 27% Newspoll.
Interest rate rise,fuel stuff up from labor and will we see One nation go ahead of labor ?
Friendlyjordies’ latest on the SA Election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU2Y7P3PXmM
newy boy:
Yes, very true.
@Kirsdarke
Have to agree re Jacinta Allen, don’t get me wrong, no hater here, she was a very effective and capable minister right back to the Bracks era. I remember one time, at band camp, when we had to rush an employment brief to her after hours to her house just to make sure she was on to of the ERC hearings the next day.
She is/was just like John Brumby – a capable minister who knows his/her portfolio inside out and is respected by the VPS and the private office. But, just like Brumby, not Premier material, it takes more than being competent and knowing your stuff – you need the cojones to take it to the opposition and prosecute your case. Brumby came off like a good worker/nice guy but didnt have the chutzpa that a leader needs. The same goes for Jacinta. Worst thing is I thought she would make a good go of it but ability and hard work need that little bit more to be a leader.
Dr Doolittle:
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 5:00 pm
I didn’t mean to convey that judicial activism was necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, cases such as Mabo No 2 and Australian Capital Television v Cth were groundbreaking. But black-letter courts such as Dixon’s and Barwick’s would not have come to the same decisions. That is my main point. As for Heydon, all he was good for was to sexually harass his associates and to have Howard’s ear. Thanks for the links.
Jeremy Harris confronting Sam Altman in person at an Oscars party and calling him the Goebbels of the Trump administration to his face is classic.
“apologising” afterwards by saying of course he misspoke while drunk, he actually meant to compare him to Friedrich Flick (the Nazi industrialist who was also convicted at Nuremberg) is nearly as good.
But doesn’t sound like he managed to enrage Altman to have an apopleptic fit, so he’s clearly got some work to do on his delivery.
I always wanted to get a shot at insulting Murdoch to his face, myself.
‘Fess
Have you seen Daddio? He was brilliant in that (and old looking). Dakota Johnson was brilliant too.
The movie wasn’t brilliant. But it was well shot, engaging and different from so much of the crap movies out there. Worth the time if you haven’t seen it.
Thanks for the view from inside the deplorable basket iconoclast
@Dr Fumbles at 7:05pm
Yeah, I don’t hate her either, just really not looking forward to going into an election with Labor led by someone likely to lose to right-wing arseholes and is seemingly unable to change their strategy or keep ahead of things.
Hah, I got that reference.
TK:
No I haven’t seen that, but thanks, will keep an eye out.
Sean Penn’s absence from the Oscars is explained by that image. I hope those who criticised him feel suitably chastened.
@the iconoclast – you sound exactly like an arrogant Liberal who’s just crossed out the name of their old popular friend Liberal in their old rant about Labor and wrote in the new popular kid’s name. Heard it before. It’s not very interesting, much like arrogant right-wingers whichever party they have latched onto.
Oh Dear labors besties support a killer regime what a surprise …
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/colonialstyle-arrogance-china-attacks-australia-new-zealand-over-iran-comments/news-story/d0552232f1b9e3f997e8fdc38682533d
Err commies….
https://ishr.org/torture-methods-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china/
Back to the bunker.
The European Union and Australia are expected to conclude talks on a long-awaited trade deal early next week, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday announcing she would visit from March 23-25.
Von der Leyen will meet Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, according to a Commission statement. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is also expected to join the trip, although planning might yet change due to flight disruptions in the Middle East.
Albanese confirmed the visit, saying in a statement that he would meet both von der Leyen and Šefčovič on March 24.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-australia-trade-talks-ursula-von-der-leyen-anthony-albanese/
The annual Irish schmaltz in the White House didn’t go as planned.
The Donald used the press conference to attack Europe for not joining the illegal war. But best was his calling on the spirit of the “late, great Winston Churchill”
Taoiseach Micheál Martin, who by this time looked like a stage prop, looked somewhat bemused- he may have a slightly different opinion of Churchill.
I may or may not return to this unfortunate blog to read your responses (if any). If I do, it will be for the sport. If I don’t, it’s because I know that nothing will ever change your mind and I’m just wasting my time and yours.
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Right, so you aren’t interested in engaging. PO then.
You certainly wasted my time and I won’t waste any more of it.
I thought Martin sat Trump down quite well on immigration.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033943345697849702
I heard Brazil mentioned earlier today. They’re having their Presidential election in October. Polling does look pretty narrow between incumbent Lula and opponent Flavio Bolsonaro (son of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, now serving in prison for insurrection).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Brazilian_presidential_election
It’ll likely be a 2-round runoff situation as well, considering both of them are not close to the 50% primary vote threshold.
@Kirsdarke
Yeah same here, was really impressed wither her as minister but as a leader, well you need that something else to be leadership material and that has not come through and the clock is ticking, seems like 2010 all over again.
I didn’t think Hastie had it in him to call Trump “petulant”. We might be in for another spill.
ajm says:
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 6:51 pm
I remember seeing some stats a while ago that engineering construction costs in Victoria are actually lower than in some other states where the CFMEU has a smaller footprint. There’s an awful lot of assertion and not much fact in the slagging of the CFMEU for delays and costs.
However, I did see some comments that there was an organised crime cell in the Victorian CFMEU that was not present in the union in the other states – but this may have mainly been a few insiders enriching themselves rather than the union as a whole benefiting. Given the huge amounts of money involved this may have merely caused a blip in total costs.
_________________________________________
Well the stats I’ve seen are that:
– Construction industry wages in Victoria are lower than NSW and QLD:
– It is measurably cheaper to build an house or appartment in Vic, just higher on the townhouse front:
– Others point out that construction cost inflation has been much lower in Vic than elsewhere:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/16/cfmeu-victorian-branch-15bn-cost-estimate-explained-administrator-report-ntwnfb
So my opinion is:
– I believe that Geoffrey Watson’s figure is highly methodologically incorrect (“lol businesses told me corruption causes 15% higher, 15% times total build cost!”), to the extent that Watson himself has acted corruptly.
– I also believe there is weird criminal linkages within the Vic branch of the CFMEU … but for what reason I can’t actually decide. My theory is that its mostly performative criminality, as in the state that produced “Underbelly” for a certain class of “tough guy” associating with crims is “cool”.
From publicly available data, there is zero proof to Geoffrey Watson claims.
Dan Tehan welcoming listeners to his interview with Sarah on 7.30…
haha.
Whom the gods would destroy they first turn mad. They have the mad bit in hand… now for…
Arky @ 7.13pm…bit like that annoying little kid from the kiddies pool that stands beside the big pool with his Pepper Pig Floaties while threatening to ‘bomb’ the big kids.
Up way past his bedtime!
Will Australia’s ag commodities exporters finally get a clear run at EU markets?
Although Dan had a nice little slap back to Sarah when she mentioned 4 refineries were closed under the libs watch. He said two of those were done under the previous labor govt. Expect a fact check from Sarah tomorrow night.
Bizzcan
If Geoff Wilson’s numbers are wrong, the government should welcome a proper investigation.
Mick Gatto is suing Geoffrey Watson
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mick-gatto-sues-sydney-silk-claiming-he-likened-him-to-tony-soprano-20260313-p5oaaq.html
Dr Fumbles McStupid
You say she was a good minister, you probably can’t answer this, but how can Jacinta Allen get basic things wrong, she produced a video in a Kew apartment, and said the apartment was near the 49 tram when it’s the 48 tram. there is no 49 tram.
bigger than bikeboy
the iconoclast
Not everyone here is a Labor supporter. Is your definition of good media Sky and the Australian, and why not tell us about what you find best about the One Nation Party.
Like him or loathe him, Don Farrell has been a very effective Minister for Trade.
Also I bet Don Farrell never got the Glenelg tram mixed up with … one of the other trams…
Landlord of the Year says:
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 8:12 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupid
You say she was a good minister, you probably can’t answer this, but how can Jacinta Allen get basic things wrong, she produced a video in a Kew apartment, and said the apartment was near the 49 tram when it’s the 48 tram. there is no 49 tram.
__________________________
Not sure about that, badly briefed maybe there were always cockups along the way it does happen but good as minister for employment/workforce participation but a good minister doesn’t translate to being a good Premier.
Since 2010 5 of Australia’s 7 oil refineries have closed;
2013
2014
2015
2021
2023
Geelong and Brisbane remain operational.
Three of the closed refineries were converted into fuel storage and handling facilities.
Looks like Sarah was correct.
Tehan’s intent was to create doubt. He already knew the answer.
The problem is in an open economic society wholesale/retail fuel operators will obtain fuel from the lowest cost source which in the main is from overseas refineries. Not sure how to deal with that unless you want governments directly involved in refineries.
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Jacinta isn’t a bad premier, she’s had the misfortune of following a dominate leader, Daniel Andrews, and she hasn’t differentiated herself from him.