The latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor down three points on the primary vote to 29%, as One Nation moves back ahead of the Coalition after the latter drew level in the poll conducted amid last month’s leadership change, respectively being up a point to 24% and down a point to 22%. The Greens are up one point to 12%. No two-party preferred result is provided, but my own estimate based on previous election preferences has Labor’s with a lead over the Coalition of somewhere between 52-48 and 53-47.
This is the first Resolve Strategic poll to gauge personal ratings for Angus Taylor, who has a combined very good and rating of 35% compared with 26% for poor and very poor, compared with 27% and 50% for Sussan Ley in the last poll. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 36% and down three to 52%. He leads Taylor 35-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 38-22 over Ley a month ago. The poll had a sample of 1803, and was presumably conducted last Sunday through to Saturday.
Racists don’t like being told they are racist.
One nation’s surge has nothing to do with the economy. It is racism.
Offended? Take a look in the mirror.
Yes blah blah calling people racist won’t make them vote for you. It’s not about that. They’re still racist.
Timmy
PHON been antiimmigration since 1996, Australia’s population has grown about 10 million in that time, its sudden surge in support has nothing to do with Indian.
Asha says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:02 pm
Yes, Trump must be super popular in Australia right now, what with the wonderful work he’s done for our fuel prices.
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I am sorry, Trump made Australia, a country stupidly wealthy in energy reserves of it’s own to decide we want none of using our own home grown energy and instead lets import 100% of it from overseas. Plus he did it decades ago.
What an amazing person he is.
Or maybe we should be blaming ourselves for being totally dependent on overseas energy. A lesson we should take note of as we import 100% of our new shiny electricity grid from China.
Kevin Bonham has had a go at estimating the TPP on this new Resolve poll.
https://bsky.app/profile/kevinbonham.bsky.social/post/3mh3luwyn4k2s
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham.bsky.social
#ResolvePM ALP 29 L-NP 22 ON 24 Green 12 IND 8 others 5
No 2PP released. My estimates ALP vs L-NP 53.3 (-0.5), ALP vs ON 53.7 (-0.9)
8:09 PM · Mar 15, 2026
MABwM
Keep telling yourself that, addressing COL and economic conditions are much harder.
Jolly Jumbuck says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:11 pm
Asha says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:02 pm
Yes, Trump must be super popular in Australia right now, what with the wonderful work he’s done for our fuel prices.
————————————
I am sorry, Trump made Australia, a country stupidly wealthy in energy reserves of it’s own to decide we want none of using our own home grown energy and instead lets import 100% of it from overseas. Plus he did it decades ago.
What an amazing person he is.
Or maybe we should be blaming ourselves for being totally dependent on overseas energy. A lesson we should take note of as we import 100% of our new shiny electricity grid from China.
___________
You make me laugh more than Miskal does 🙂
Particularly when you still worship at the alter of trickle down and don’t even try.
nath says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 7:53 pm
Ashasays:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 7:31 pm
The Guardian on the potential unintended consequences of the recent age-verification requirements for porn websites:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/14/australia-porn-age-verification-user-experience-vpn-dark-web-ntwnfb
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The ACL and every cockblocker in the country celebrating.
________________
This is just wowser material. VPNs are used by about a quarter of all internet users. You just need to use barrier protection. Simples 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-inquiry-into-brethren-election-involvement-calls-on-dutton-to-appear-20260313-p5oad5.html
Still dont understand your earlier point Grif, but hey, glad someone finds ON growing funny, because I dont…
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:31 pm
Still dont understand your earlier point Grif, but hey, glad someone finds ON growing funny, because I don’t…
_______
Where did I say it was funny? And which point don’t you understand? When I said you were arguing against yourself? Read your post at 6:28 and 6:31. In the first you advocate for “big ticket items”. In the next you say “Bold assumption that enough voters either know or give a damn about policy beyond “the status quo sucks, burn it down””.
I think simply calling people racists is a too simple explanation of what is happening at present. Even saying it’s down to economic issues is too simple. It’s much more complex than that. Many factors are likely feeding into the apparent loss of support for the traditional majors and the transport to ON including:
The Trump effect;
Reaction to the Bondi tragedy;
Perception that Australian values are under attack and any attempt to point this out results in calls of racism;
Claims of economic crises including COL and housing without people seeing these issues being addressed in an effective way; and
Seemingly the traditional parties no longer truely represent people.
I’m not sure where all this will end up but ON is not the answer in my opinion.
Griff, ill keep it simple.
ON voters are broad – alot want to simply burn the ground down.
However, a decent amount of them are leaving the big 2 because they dont agree with what they see as status quo politics, and could be won back by big ticket items.
So, big ticket items will help get some back, while a decent chunk are simply beyond help, but this doesnt mean Labor cant stop the bleeding by coming out strongly on something cost of living related.
I doubt they will, but they could.
davidwh:
I also don’t buy the whole ‘I’m aggrieved’ thing aka MAGA. The very people who insist that they are the only ones working hard and doing their bit are invariably the first to blame ‘others’ for having some kind of advantage.
I find it ironic that some towns in the US heavily reliant on migrant workers have now ground to a halt because Trump has either deported the workers or scared them into staying home. Perhaps the question is why aren’t all those ‘aggrieved’ MAGA types who think Latinos are taking their jobs and taking their homes stepping up to fill the void.
Kevin Bonham: ResolvePM ALP 29 L-NP 22 ON 24 Green 12 IND 8 others 5
No 2PP released. My estimates ALP vs L-NP 53.3 (-0.5), ALP vs ON 53.7 (-0.9)
One nation is a halfway house until the libs fire up.
It’s a lot easier for libs to pinch one nation votes than straight from labor so One nation maybe making it easier for a lib resurgence down the track.
Btw AI uncertainty on jobs and labors failure to counter the anxiety is not helping.
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:41 pm
Griff, ill keep it simple.
ON voters are broad – alot want to simply burn the ground down.
However, a decent amount of them are leaving the big 2 because they dont agree with what they see as status quo politics, and could be won back by big ticket items.
So, big ticket items will help get some back, while a decent chunk are simply beyond help, but this doesnt mean Labor cant stop the bleeding by coming out strongly on something cost of living related.
I doubt they will, but they could.
__________
Now that is a different argument, Miskal. I shall answer seriously. So, you are thinking that some or all of the 1 in 20 potential ex-Labor voters could be won back with big ticket items? Are you saying the ex-Coalition mob will be seduced? It isn’t the Greens voters as they are static.
While I personally am keen on 2019 Labor policies, I don’t know if those 1 in 20 Labor voters that may potentially move to ONP are.
Fess agree you make a lot of sense.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/farm-labor-trump-migrant-workers-h2a.html
Surely this is a boon for those white South Africans who migrated to the US on humanitarian grounds? They all need work after all.
Confessions says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:44 pm
davidwh:
I also don’t buy the whole ‘I’m aggrieved’ thing aka MAGA. The very people who insist that they are the only ones working hard and doing their bit are invariably the first to blame ‘others’ for having some kind of advantage.
I find it ironic that some towns in the US heavily reliant on migrant workers have now ground to a halt because Trump has either deported the workers or scared them into staying home. Perhaps the question is why aren’t all those ‘aggrieved’ MAGA types who think Latinos are taking their jobs and taking their homes stepping up to fill the void.
_____________
I spent a wee while in Lincolnshire, UK. There was less than a 1% unemployment rate in the agricultural heartland of the UK at the time. A large immigrant agricultural workforce with local management. A few years later they were the area with the highest Brexit vote in the UK (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36616740). Suffice to say, they currently have a higher than average unemployment rate.
I am not surprised when this phenomenon repeats in the US. And Australia.
I’m a bit confused, Jumbuck. You say we import 100% of our energy. It sure doesn’t look like it:
https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-update-2025/energy-flows
You also enquired about our solar panel factories. Check out 5b, they’re going off: https://5b.co/projects
davidwh:
The hypocrisy drives me mad. I’m really hoping that Matt Canavan can drive ON to irrelevance. I’m not liking that he will likely be the defacto LOTO because Taylor is so hopeless. But if anyone can subsume ON either from a policy standpoint or a populist standpoint, he will be able to do that more so than Taylor.
I didn’t say only boomer landlords vote One Nation, I made clear that the ON vote also includes significantly Gen X (and millennials to a lesser extent) who are the first to inherit from said boomers, and want the same deal their parents got.
And on migration, tackling migration and substantially reducing it is an effective response to a range of hard to fix policy problems (housing supply very slow and expensive, businesses not investing); but few have taken up the opportunity to promote race-neutral migration cut, ceding the field to ON.
One Nation’s biggest support are in the areas with the least non-whites. Their movement is based on bogan, boomer racism of people whose view of the world comes from Sky News and AI slop facebook fake news posts created in Asia and Eastern Europe.
25% of the population being incoherent, cooker racists is hardly surprising after 40 years of Howard, Hanson, Murdoch, Abbott and now Rinehart priming them with hate.
They live in a fantasy world where somehow you can shut the border, cut tax for billionaires, destroy medicare but magically Australia will be like the 1960’s again.
Fess I have this sinking feeling the country will have to experience ON with some political influence before they get driven into irrelevance.
The MAGA / One Nation crowd complain that foreigners have taken jobs formerly done by Australians. True, but not the full story. The foreigners taking the jobs aren’t migrants, they’re still in their home countries. The jobs were exported by corporations to low wage countries to improve profitability.
Often, to identify the cause of any problem, it often pays to find out who benefits. Loss of local jobs? It’s not migrants. Look to the big end of town.
Look at housing affordability. Who benefits? Not migrants. Look to “investors”, look to the tax system, look to why we seem to be unable to increase supply in a seller’s market.
Griff:
It’s complete madness. Is it fear of the ‘other’, even while cognitively acknowledging the ‘other’ is a benefit rather than a hindrance to their way of life? I don’t understand it.
OTOH I’ve watched videos of Minnesotans out protesting in below freezing conditions protecting their neighbours, community members, employees etc from ICE operations, even being killed to do so.
So it begs the question as to what is it about Minnesotans that they can recognise and mobilise to protect their community’s way of live in a way that some Australians refuse to do the same because of grievance, envy and racism?
Griff, its deff the 1 in 20/10 that might be scraped back with big policy. The question then becomes which area; choosing immigration seems obvious but thats a trap, and as seen by the Dems, Labour and European leftwing parties simply entrenches the populist right.
So, we go with cost of living; specifically housing. I have always supported a return to (ironically) the Menzies approach; have government led housing construction, as opposed to a simple investment fund that may have a percentage of that funding directed to encouraging housing.
At the same time, a reduction on tax based factors that incentive’s or ease owning multiple properties. These are big and loud policies that will piss of some voters, but at the same time even the 2019 Labor review noted the housing reforms wasnt the election killer that it is often claimed to be.
Hell, the fact is that a small but decent chunk of those who would be impacted are teal voters who, based on being social progressives, are very unlikely to shift their votes far enough away to support ON. And once the LNP makes the super dumb choice of endorsing the preferences with ON, that further cements the Teals.
The fact that the Libs used the Brethren in their thousands on election day disgusts me. I reckon if you claim religious excemption from voting you should be banned from any related activity.
Before retirement I had a run in with these brethren arseholes. The corporate legal advice was to tell their lawyer to go and get f$^/ ked. I did, but in a slightly more polite manner and heard no more from them.
Steve777:
You raise a very good point. Just look at Atlassian for eg who recently blamed AI for 1,600 job losses as if AI was some phenomenon that nobody had ever heard of until last week and which had therefore snuck up on us all overnight.
It’s not only A.I. many businesses are ramping up offshoring.
I think the end result that those behind MAGA want is the simplest – they sail away into the sunset on their megayachts laughing while the remaining plebs left on land fight each other over the dregs.
That’s their “rapture” made real.
The only people that know less than Trump is Wall Street & Oil Market
Oil prices fell on March 9, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war in Iran was “very complete,” which raised hopes that the conflict would not be prolonged. This optimism led to a rebound in global stock markets and a decrease in crude oil prices from their earlier highs.
Fall was around 26% on the day genius’s
They all know SFA.. we are in the hands of total fools
Landlord of the Year @ #82 Sunday, March 15th, 2026 – 9:19 pm
Shorter ON voter: ‘ My job just got offshored to India, therefore I blame my Vietnamese nextdoor neighbour and I’m voting for Pauline because of it!’
Sorry, that doesn’t jive for me. Be an adult, man up and stop blaming others for the things that happens to you which are outside of your control.
Fess
We can agree on that but when major companies start offshoring professional jobs, it would come as a cultural shock to people used to secure employment.
The 1960s had progressive taxation, strong unions able to bargain for increasing wages, Government ownership of essential services like power generation, extensive public works done by Government employees, mass building of public housing and virtually zero unemployment. Governments would get worried if it approach 2%.
The bankrollers of the Right and Far Right have worked for decades to wind all that back. It’s not coming back.
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 9:13 pm
Griff, its deff the 1 in 20/10 that might be scraped back with big policy. The question then becomes which area; choosing immigration seems obvious but thats a trap, and as seen by the Dems, Labour and European leftwing parties simply entrenches the populist right.
So, we go with cost of living; specifically housing. I have always supported a return to (ironically) the Menzies approach; have government led housing construction, as opposed to a simple investment fund that may have a percentage of that funding directed to encouraging housing.
At the same time, a reduction on tax based factors that incentive’s or ease owning multiple properties. These are big and loud policies that will piss of some voters, but at the same time even the 2019 Labor review noted the housing reforms wasnt the election killer that it is often claimed to be.
Hell, the fact is that a small but decent chunk of those who would be impacted are teal voters who, based on being social progressives, are very unlikely to shift their votes far enough away to support ON. And once the LNP makes the super dumb choice of endorsing the preferences with ON, that further cements the Teals.
____________
So a 1-2% potential gain for an unknown potential loss for tax settings? Risky. A new department of housing to directly build property? Expensive and slow with unknown potential gain.
While risky, I am expecting a light touch 2019 tax change in the budget. Before the election they will pull a xenophobic-light policy e.g. a tightening of the screw on foreign ownership of housing. Materially it would make a small difference, but it will appeal to the electorate. Brutal, effective, politics.
Foreign ownership of housing is small target though; unless Labor combines that with massive immigration cuts it will be seen as simple management vs national development. Plus it runs into the old issue of “ON was just proven right about this policy” which emboldened the far right everywhere it was tried. So that won’t work.
Disagree that a department would be slow be default; Menzies dep was directly responsible for building 15 percent of the new housing over 5 yearsish.
That’s between 25 to 30k housing a year in today’s numbers.
What’s stopping Labor from doing the same?
Confessions says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 9:12 pm
Griff:
It’s complete madness. Is it fear of the ‘other’, even while cognitively acknowledging the ‘other’ is a benefit rather than a hindrance to their way of life? I don’t understand it.
OTOH I’ve watched videos of Minnesotans out protesting in below freezing conditions protecting their neighbours, community members, employees etc from ICE operations, even being killed to do so.
So it begs the question as to what is it about Minnesotans that they can recognise and mobilise to protect their community’s way of live in a way that some Australians refuse to do the same because of grievance, envy and racism?
____________
I think my response to you was swallowed. My better half says the Minnesotans have a strong culture of collective action. We may have that in some areas of Australia, but not certainly not all. There are enough voters that will cut off their nose to spite their face here in Australia.
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 9:37 pm
Foreign ownership of housing is small target though; unless Labor combines that with massive immigration cuts it will be seen as simple management vs national development. Plus it runs into the old issue of “ON was just proven right about this policy” which emboldened the far right everywhere it was tried. So that won’t work.
Disagree that a department would be slow be default; Menzies depth was directly responsible for building 15 percent of the new housing over 5 yearsish.
That’s between 25 to 30k housing a year in today’s numbers.
What’s stopping Labor from doing the same?
___________
You are conflating signaling with substance. Small targets are great! Fewer losers with political upside. As this is a prediction, we shall have to wait and see which of these policies will be employed.
“Small targets are great!”
Strong disagree, and i am confidant that such an attitude will lead Labor down the same path the libs are currently death marching down; the next interest rate rise is going to crack Labor current lead, and if they are seen to be pursuing small targets for much longer watch those 53 turn into 50 and then 49
If you talk to people on the street, the shared experience is that big change is needed; the issue with the populist right is that they have tapped into this drive and are encouraging loud and simple solutions that won’t actually solve systemic issues, but will help the class of individuals that are directly sponsoring these parties.
Here is a question; if Menzies could build 12 to 15 percent extra housing per year, why can’t Labor?
davidwh @ 7:35 pm
There’s a reason for that.
@Miskal
I don’t think Labor is going down that path. They had the experience of 2007-2013 where they tried instant big changes, and all that got us is the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government.
This time around, they’re going for slow-cooking medium-long term changes, where even if somehow we end up with a Coalition government in 2028, they wouldn’t be able to just repeal them as easily as Abbott did with the Carbon and Mining Profit taxes in 2014.
It might not be as electorally appealing, but it would be pretty effective if these reforms get the chance to simmer and set themselves in Australian politics where it would be harder to repeal them.
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 9:47 pm
“Small targets are great!”
Strong disagree, and i am confidant that such an attitude will lead Labor down the same path the libs are currently death marching down; the next interest rate rise is going to crack Labor current lead, and if they are seen to be pursuing small targets for much longer watch those 53 turn into 50 and then 49
If you talk to people on the street, the shared experience is that big change is needed; the issue with the populist right is that they have tapped into this drive and are encouraging loud and simple solutions that won’t actually solve systemic issues, but will help the class of individuals that are directly sponsoring these parties.
_____________
I suggested a policy that is a “loud and simple solution{s} that won’t actually solve systemic issues” in combination with a tax change that will. That is the second time tonight that you argue for something (albeit working for ONP but not Labor) that you have argued against almost immediately prior.
But you are confident so that is all that matters.
Carry on 🙂
Edit: square brackets hit different these days
There would be zero political harm for Labor to take up a racism-free migration cut strategy. The entire migration numbers issues sits in international students – too many are studying degrees that are not useful for Australian productivity growth (accounting, HR, chef).
A government could take a strict “no international students beyond STEM/Med/Nursing/Childcare”, a measure that would be massively productivity enhancing. The most significant productivity challenge today is that the size of the workforce is growing faster than investment, meaning we are going through capital shallowing.
Quite frankly, a lot of non-essential businesses need a bit of labour shortage to encourage them to invest.
On housing, the purpose of the HAFF is precisely to stop the annual/electoral fiscal cycle. The funds are there now and will generally keep growing and funding housing for the foreseeable future. Besides, Menzies gov didn’t “directly” built houses, it mostly funded the states and charities to do so, largely the same model as the HAFF.
And housing construction costs have massively exploded since COVID. Housing supply is not a developer margins problem, it is that every step from planning, to materials, to wages has skyrocketed.
– A new apartment in Australia now cost $470,000 (per unit) to build, 33% up since before the pandemic.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-activity-australia/dec-2024#data-downloads
– On average, apartments now take 29 months to build – ie any apartment buildings started today are highly unlikely to be finished before the next federal election
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-activity-australia/jun-2025#data-downloads
The long version short is that since the pandemic, we have higher population growth and lower construction – feeding into massively accelerating rents and thus increasing stress.
I’m gonna be real I thought the oropaganda about the USS Abraham lincoln was ridiculous but now that Trump is begging everyone to come to Hormuz im starting to believe it
@Bizzcan at 9:59pm
I’d say that’s pretty reasonable.
Big changes are needed, not timid tinkering. And those excellent economic policies of the 1960s? We can have them again at any time the government chooses. Giving up and saying it’s not possible is what fuels One Nation.
Kirsdarke, let me expand the question with a dash of rhetorical; why is it in the past Australians were open to big policies like government owned housing construction targets, but wouldn’t be today?
If the answer is that people’s priorities changed and thay voters then and now are not the same, then let me put forward the next logical step; today’s voters is not the same as the voters of the a period that is in some cases over a decade ago.
Alot of the people who voted for Abbott and scomo are literally dead; as in the voting basis has shifted from boomer to gen y and z dominance of the voters basis.
So why do we assume that the same patterns that existed a decade ago are in play?
Griff, once again im confused by what your saying, and I once again ask the question you keep avoiding.
If Menzies can build an extra 12 to 15 percent housing year on year with direct action, why can’t Labor?
Bizz, I am very curious to see how the HAFF is basically the same thing as Menzies approach.