The latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor down three points on the primary vote to 29%, as One Nation moves back ahead of the Coalition after the latter drew level in the poll conducted amid last month’s leadership change, respectively being up a point to 24% and down a point to 22%. The Greens are up one point to 12%. No two-party preferred result is provided, but my own estimate based on previous election preferences has Labor’s with a lead over the Coalition of somewhere between 52-48 and 53-47.
This is the first Resolve Strategic poll to gauge personal ratings for Angus Taylor, who has a combined very good and rating of 35% compared with 26% for poor and very poor, compared with 27% and 50% for Sussan Ley in the last poll. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 36% and down three to 52%. He leads Taylor 35-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 38-22 over Ley a month ago. The poll had a sample of 1803, and was presumably conducted last Sunday through to Saturday.
Well done Angus
Reposting from the previous thread:
I’m not saying Resolve’s findings are accurate – and state-based samples in federal polls should always be treated with a hefty grain of salt – but I see no reason to dismiss them either.
It might seem incongruous at first that One Nation are doing better in NSW than in QLD and vice versa for Labor, but just remember a few things:
NSW currently has an incumbant ALP government while QLD doesn’t, and this probably isn’t a great time to be an incumbant government anywhere right now.
The Minns government went all in the hate laws that One Nation supporters so detest, while the Miles opposition have come out swinging against Crisafulli’s own version.
Sydney has been hit hardest by the housing crisis that is – in part – fuelling the surge to One Nation.
Finally, Sandilands Country has historically been One Nation’s strongest area outside of Queensland… it doesn’t surprise me that they are performing well there in the present climate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/world/middleeast/fcc-broadcasters-iran-war.html
This feels…dictator-ish.
Guessing the one nation cookers think that are getting 90 seats next election seriously I think people need to stop dooming I think the problem one nation has that it’s popular in areas where people are already gonna like them and before you say the suburbs I’m pretty sure there’s multi ethnic people there too
Do we know ON voters detest the NSW laws? I think we can say they likely detest the federal laws that resulted in white nationalist groups breaking up.
Another repost from the last thread:
That’s certainly the case when it comes to One Nation MPs and their doners and inner circle, but I suspect the that many in the far broader demographic of people currently considering a vote for One Nation are on much lower incomes and much more mixed opinions on the matter.
Mind you, I don’t think reforms to CGT and negative gearing by themselves are what could potentially win those people over so much as actually affecting genuine change on the housing crisis that is causing so many desperate people to turn to One Nation – and the former is one such move that would help in accomplishing the latter.
I’ll add though that it is not about being “left” or “right” on tax here so much as it is actually alleviating pressure on cost-of-living and housing.
Just have to wonder, what’s so appealing about this?
pauline. Big gina’s puppet.
Confession:
I’m not sure. My suspicion is that many don’t really draw a huge amount of distinction between them or even realise they are seperate things.
William:
Do you have any intention of including a Labor / One Nation TPP in Bludgertrack going forward?
How do we know it’s housing that is sending voters to ON and not just a pox on both their houses of the major parties?
Probably a fair suspicion.
One Nation is:
-The anti-“change housing taxes” party at a time when it is looking like the Commonwealth budget in May will change federal housing taxes.
– The “migration is too high because of the million ISIS brides we are importing”
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HH88HR1Gwa9keIiIYiBbiSWTAANkKRS9/view
One Nation is NOT the rallying call of the poor and disposed; it is the party of boomer landlord and Gen X’ers about to inherent a property portfolio, who are angry but even more so at the prospect of having to bare any cost of reform to economic settings.
One nation is competing for the scraps from 31.8% combined primary vote and 42 seats of the federal lib/nats .
“The poll had a sample of 1803, and was presumably conducted”
Yes, I presume it was conducted as well??
As already noted in the previous thread, ON is seeing its best gains in multicultural Victoria where housing is getting more affordable (aka, worse if you are a landlord).
Sussan Ley quitely sitting back having a laugh at this poll. Well done Angus.
Confession:
We don’t. My feeling is its a combination of both.
But anecdotal evidence from stuff I’be seen online as well as conversations with people I know who are considering a vote for One Nation would suggest to me that housing is a big factor and that there is now a sizeable cohort of people who do blame overly high immigration rates for rising cost-of-living and housing prices.
This is also why I think having loons like Bernardi as their standard bearers could come back to bite One Nation in the butt. It’s not about God or “traditional values” or any of that nonsense. Its the economy, stupid.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-economic-chiefs-meet-paris-clear-path-trump-xi-summit-2026-03-15/?taid=69b66387f9dd4700017e13b9&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
I wonder if the Iran war will still be going by then…
Another disastrous poll for Labor and the Coalition.
They really are detached from reality.
Bizzcan:
Interesting. When I think of ON voters I think of Gen X men and rural and regional Boomers and Millennials.
But admittedly I don’t actually know anyone who would freely admit to voting ON so my perceptions are just that.
Bizzcan
If the landlord property rich are PHON’s base they should be competitive in Teal seats.
(From previous thread)
Resolve has been a reputable poll, so the results are concerning.
The State-based numbers are less reliable because the small samples have larger margins of error.
The poll had 1803 respondents, so an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent. About 600 would have been from NSW (MOE ~4.1%), while about 360 would have been from Qld (MOE ~ 5.3%).
Bizzcan:
I don’t agree. It’s a combination of both.
However only one of those two categories are likely to ever consistantly vote for a Labor government, and so those are the people the government should be focussing on winning back.
It’s the cost of living + housing crisis = anger at the political parties that have held power throughout all this time.
Some of you guys with comfortable housing and income levels, can endlessly wonder why ON is doing well. It’s not actually that hard to work out.
Young Angus is doing better than moderate loser Ley was ,on 2pp and popularity.
Housing getting cheaper in Victoria eh,last month interest rate increase and Tues next week and another in May sadly look on.
Labor had better hope that Yougov poll was wrong about one nation leading in the outer subs of Aust aka mortgage belt recently.
Labor is like a crack addict hooked on its population Ponzi scheme and massive gov spending driving up inflation.Not booting overstayers unlike Trump.
Inflation Aus 3.8%
USA 2.4%
I too would be very curious about the polls showing ON to be solely wealthy landowners; stuff from Kos etc suggest its actually gen Xers from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds, and notable groups in the Millennial and Zoomers.
Passing them of as rich boomers doesnt seem to be supported by the numbers.
Especially if they are starting to eat into Labors right flank
Heather Cox Richardson, US political historian, author and commentator: the Trump Administration is leaking like a sieve, much more so than Biden’s and most prior administrations.
https://youtu.be/jVmy5rHzf0c?si=GNjKftxSs2NIIhmG (~ 7 mins)
Even taking account that many of the leakers are self-interested and/or covering their backsides, the amount of leaking indicates a lot of disquiet within the Administration with the conduct of the War.
Miskal
Labor has a few middle class seats – Menzies, Maribyrnong, Jaga Jaga, Deakin, Aston, Chisholm, Sturt, Boothby, Tangney, Bennelong, Reid.
“This feels…dictator-ish.”
I suppose it could traject that way but right now. . . on the contrary, it feels . . .”re-balance-ish”.
Scott:
Er. No.
22 + 24 adds up to a result a bit higher than 31.8.
I’m not trying to run the stupid Jolly Jumbuck line of simply adding up the primary votes and claiming the “Right” is now beating the “Left” or any nonsense like that. I fully expect there to be serious preference leakage on both sides of the Coalition / One Nation divide , and can certainly see Labor retaining a majority on those numbers, possibly in a landalide. (I could also see them losing government on those numbers too depending on how things fall.)
But the surge to One Nation is clearly coming from more than just disaffected Coalition supporters, and Labor would be fools to get complacent and just assume they can leave the parties of the right to fight among themselves while they sail to another election victory.
I note that data provided by Kos relating to polling for Victoria notes 13, 21, 29 and 29 percent first pref for Zoomers through to Boomers
Those numbers also show 24 for women and 25 for men, 16, 24, 25 and 35 from inner city to rural, 26, 26 and 20 for ownership without mortgage, mortgage and renting, 36, 24, 30 and 14 for not finishing yr 12, finishing yr 12, tafe and university education.
And on voting softness?
29, 21 and 18 from Hard to soft voters (sic).
None of this suggests ON voters are solely boomers with houses, or bumpkins in the country.
Shame Resolve don’t do ‘Preferred PM’ question for Albo vs. Hanson (and Taylor vs. Hanson).
Not sure whether that involves a big upheaval in their polling ‘system’ that they (and various other pollsters) are delaying, or whether they’re in denial (or simply waiting . . . rather a long time. . . to see if ON’s surge becomes a mirage before they give themselves extra work to do).
Is this becoming a trend for the opinion polling companies narration
Before the 2025 federal election and federal by elections ,The opinion polling companies narrative
The federal lib/nats combined primary votes were gaining votes off Labor primary without evidence from elections
despite the voting in federal by-elections continuing to contradict the narrative by the opinion polling companies , showing swings to Labor and swings against the federal lib/nats .
The opinion polling companies narrative the mythical
Federal lib/nats combined primary votes were gaining votes off Labor primary votes.
—
Now after the 2025 federal election
Opinion Poling company narrative is
One Nation primary votes gaining votes off Labor Primary votes , with no actual evidence from elections
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:57 pm
Bizzcan
If the landlord property rich are PHON’s base they should be competitive in Teal seats.
____________________
The Teals are the party of diversifed wealth (property + financial):
– Allegra Spenders tax plan on the face of it would be a weakening of the Superannuation tax changes just passed by Labor
– Her negative gearing plan (ring fence it to collective income derived from wealth) does not harm those with big share holdings, but hurts mum and dad investors.
One Nation is the party for property investors where that is the only major non super investment (most landlords).
And I’m not even arguing against change, just warning that it does have a political downside.
Scott
In between actual elections, polling companies do what they exist for: do polls to gauge the best barometer they can of voters’ sentiment towards the political parties.
Their polling methods can be scrutinised (and even dismissed, though one would be stupid to think any of them would sacrifice their reputation by intentionally getting it wrong).
But I don’t think it’s wise to simply dismiss polls we don’t like as “no actual evidence”.
With regard to the last federal election, the polls prior to the campaign used the same method (largely) as the ones at the end of the campaign that correctly predicted Labor’s vote shares – it’s well-known that Labor ran a far better/less bad (you choose) campaign than the absolutely diabolical one Peter Dutton and party had, where they appeared not to have clear policies after all.
So why are you dissing those polls back then as if they were wrong. . . dare I say it, “without evidence”?
I’m going to have to get out a bit more and meet some of these One Nation voters. I don’t know where they are hiding.
BTSays
Not dismissing the opinion polling completely , just the narrative from some in the opinion poll companies and lib/nats propaganda media units.
There is no evidence in elections , whether they are federal by-elections or general election that one nation is taking ground off Labor or even Lib/nats , the up coming federal by-Election in Farrar will be a test to see if one nation is taking ground of the lib/nats
The Guardian on the potential unintended consequences of the recent age-verification requirements for porn websites:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/14/australia-porn-age-verification-user-experience-vpn-dark-web-ntwnfb
Also, a very good point I saw on a related Reddit thread: why in the fucking fuck is this stuff not being implemented on gambling websites?
We are living in strange, perhaps frightening, times where almost a majority of Australians are Turing away from the traditional major parties. Heaven knows where all the second preferences will end up.
Diogenes @ #37 Sunday, March 15th, 2026 – 7:26 pm
You and me both!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-15/story-lab-one-nation-polling/106322978
“The lowest estimate is that one in five people who voted for the Coalition in 2025 now say they intend to vote for One Nation.
But according to one of the polls, that figure could even be as high as one in three.
By way of comparison, one in 20 (or at the high end, one in 10) Labor voters are saying they now favour One Nation.”
Again, nothing suggesting this is simply an issue of cashed up boomers, and something that any party can safely ignore as a “its not us its them” out of the traditional 2.
Other than the self-immolation of the Coalition and the defection of Australia’s drunk cranky uncle, what else has trigger the surge in One Nation’s vote? It can solely be a reaction to Bondi or Joyce’s defection as it the surge was evident in November before both of those events.
I can understand the dip in Labor’s vote as they do seem to have fumbled the war so far – not that there was actually much they could have done otherwise but they seemed to be on the backfoot for the past two weeks.
Asha says:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 7:10 pm
I’m not trying to run the stupid Jolly Jumbuck line of simply adding up the primary votes and claiming the “Right” is now beating the “Left” or any nonsense like that.
—————————–
Funny, because I have never said anything remotely like that.
When stuff gets made up, maybe that is why labor is losing votes. Labor living in a bubble world. Thinking they will be safe with the votes from NDIS rorters.
I have predicted ONP will start to eat away at Labor as things get harder and all labor can do is blame people with lots of superannuation or people who own a second property, oh and gun owners.
A few more interest rate rises, cost of everything going up and immigration going brrrrr. Support for albanese is going to evaporate, much like we saw how deeply unpopular he was during his first term until the very end. Albanese was given a second chance, but it seems leopards cannot change their spots. Still as useless as ever. How are those solar panel factories going Albo?
I am hoping someone at labor decides to attempt to get hanson charged with some hate laws stuff. Much like Abbott did over electoral laws… That would be the icing on the cake and the demise of albanese for sure.
One nation is a proxy for the Trump vote as well.Maybe Trump booting illegals out and reducing population is a winning policy that Aussies want here?
Ashasays:
Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 7:31 pm
The Guardian on the potential unintended consequences of the recent age-verification requirements for porn websites:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/14/australia-porn-age-verification-user-experience-vpn-dark-web-ntwnfb
___________________
The ACL and every cockblocker in the country celebrating.
Scott’s the guru fella!
He’s “runs on the board”!
Look many of us are aware/concerned/worried/dumbfounded regarding the ON phenomena.
The lack of candidates, policies, significant ON history and the unknowns are a great cause for some soul searching regarding the polling.
My take on all this Pauline/Barnaby malarky will manifest itself to the detriment of the LNP/LP/Nats and leave a Federal Labor government to go about the rennaisence of transparent democracy in the Australian version of democracy.
However, I’d never dismiss the existence of a largish cohort of “moronic bogans” willing to give the “cultish” ON an opportunity to insert their particular notions into unknown apertures without using protection.
The massive Trump/Putin/Netanyahu/Kim Jung Un experiment should be enough for the thickest of “bogans” but I suspect most of them couldn’t even associate the nations to which they supposedly add leadership.
With the latest explosion of wars and the ON phenomena, PBers have plenty to keep themselves occupied.
pied piper
Every US president deports illegals.
One Nation is gaining due to the totally unchecked numbers of temporary workers from South Asia in Melbourne and Sydney and to a lesser extent elsewhere.
Have you been to some of the towns immediately south of the Himalayas? People decorate the rooves of their houses with giant airplane models, believing migration for migration’s sake should be one’s life mission.
They arrive in Oz, are exploited by employers of their own nationality, and, unable to survive and send remittances home, turn to theft. And the locals no longer feel safe.
The only way to solve this crisis is to halt immigration from these parts immediately (except for proven talent which should be capped at a few hundred a year) and deport those temporary visa workers who have no legitimite avenue to permanent settlement.
What are effectively Laboral (Labor and Liberal) factions of what is effectively one party now reap what they sowed.
Yes, Trump must be super popular in Australia right now, what with the wonderful work he’s done for our fuel prices.
@Asha at 8:02pm
Ah but all that’s worth it if we can do mass-deportations against brown people. (/sarcasm)