The date of the Farrer by-election has been set for May 9, as announced in parliament on Thursday by the Speaker, Milton Dick. Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates that Labor is not running, which I have not seen reported elsewhere, and there is no indication yet on who the Liberal candidate might be. One Nation yesterday endorsed David Farley, 69-year-old former head of major beef producer the Australian Agricultural Company and an activist locally on water issues. Farley was chosen by local party members ahead of Albury small business owner Leigh Wolki and agribusiness manager Guy Cooper.
A Nationals preselection vote to be held today will be contested by former Albury mayor Kylie King, former Wodonga mayor Kev Poulton, retired army colonel Brad Robertson and beef farmer Marc Greening. Helen Dalton, the state independent member for Murray, says she will not run, after earlier considering doing so either as an independent or for One Nation.
Before diving into various federal electoral matters that have been accumulating over the past two months, two non-federal matters worth noting: Labor looks to have won the Northern Territory seat of Nightcliff from the Greens at a by-election held yesterday, and a draft state redistribution for Queensland will be published on Tuesday.
• Nine Newspapers reported a fortnight ago that Special Minister of State Don Farrell has been holding “informal talks” with other parties about expanding the federal parliament. This would likely involve 12 new seats for the Senate and twice that many for the House (a requirement of the Constitution’s nexus clause), resulting in around 174 seats for the House and 88 for the Senate, though there are options for adding further seats for the territories. Any such change would take effect after the 2028 election. The Liberals have declared themselves opposed, though the report says “some Liberal MPs and strategists” are privately supportive, but the Greens and the Nationals are thought likely to be favourable.
• A Greens preselection is looming to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Tasmanian Senator Peter Whish-Wilson, which he announced last October. Among the candidates will be Tabatha Badger, who has held a seat for the party in Lyons since the March 2024 state election. Other prospective nominees identified by the ABC are Vanessa Bleyer, an environmental lawyer who ran in Braddon in last year’s state election; Scott Jordan, an environmental campaigner and frequent election candidate; and Alistair Allan, a former Sea Shepherd captain and the party’s candidate for Lyons at last year’s federal election.
• Barnaby Joyce, who is currently slated to be One Nation’s lead Senate candidate in New South Wales, says he would “consider” running again in his existing seat of New England, presumably reflecting bullishness about the party’s position in the polls.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Policy Research has released an analysis of survey research conducted immediately after the election showing support for the proposition that democracy was “always preferable to other forms of government” ranging from just 43.8% among those aged 18-to-24 to 89.1% among those 75 and over. Those inclined to disagree were more likely to have low educational attainment, speak a language other than English at home, and live in a rural electorate. Those with religious affiliations and identifying as being on the left were more inclined to agree.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reported last month that Luke Howarth, who was unseated in the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie last year, has nominated for top position for the Senate ticket in a preselection to be held at the party’s state convention next month. This places him in opposition to James McGrath, “who is expected to hold his position”. Second spot is reserved for the Nationals and Matt Canavan, notwithstanding suggestions he may run in the lower house seat of Capricornia, and former Senator Joanna Lindgren has nominated for third.
• Antony Green has published an instructive resource in the shape of two-party preferred preference flow data by candidate from non-classic contests at the last three elections, provided to him by the Australian Electoral Commission. The AEC routinely publishes data showing how the preferences of each candidate that didn’t make the final preference count divided between those who did, but this data extends the principle to preference splits between Labor and the Coalition in those seats where an independent or minor party candidate made the final count at the expense of one or the other.
• A note regarding the BludgerTrack poll aggregate: the leadership rating trends are on hold for the moment, as accommodating the new Opposition Leader will require some code re-engineering and enough data points to produce a workable trend result, which I won’t have time to do until after the South Australian election. I have added some new tabs to the “Poll Data” feature recording voting intention by 2025 election vote and the four regional categories used by the Australian Electoral Commission, the former striking me as being of particular interest in the current environment. You can access this by clicking the “more” tab on the far right until it gets you to the relevant set of tabs.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/07/politics/americans-killed-iran-war-dignified-transfer-dover-analysis
A “dignified transfer”, FFS.
SL @ #49 Sunday, March 8th, 2026 – 9:54 am
lol SL
Ven 9:47am
Yes as I said yesterday, Trump’s slogan will soon be MIGA:
“Make Inflation Great Again!”
There is no plan, nor was there any plan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/us/politics/iran-war-first-week.html
Pageboisays:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 8:21 am
Albo is a complete fraud, he’s gone from fighting tories to being one, and Penny Wong never met a value she wouldn’t sell out.
_______________________
+1
Australia considering request for military assistance from Gulf states.
Did you see Australian government trick here. It looks like Australia will play military role in Iran war.
Australia cannot help themselves, can they?
They have to insert themselves in a in a US war. PATHETIC!
Why will Gulf states only ask Australia for military assistance? Uh?
Another aspect of the Iran war Trump supporters were in denial of yesterday was the risk of depletion of specialist ammunition stocks, especially SAMs and cruise missiles. Production rates of these costly weapons are in the hundreds per year, not thousands, and the USN and USAF are firing hundreds per day. There are a lot of them on order for allies as well, which means somebody is going to miss out.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/07/allies-fear-iran-war-will-leave-them-without-u-s-weapons-they-bought-00817204
Australia is also in the queue for some zuS missiles – Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM3 and ESSM SAMs. Lockheed Martin already had a backlog of several years of production before the Iran war kicked off. What is it now?
Which country still has full stocks of all these weapons with high production capacity? China.
Thanks for that nonsense Pageboi!
Mavis @ #50 Sunday, March 8th, 2026 – 9:59 am
Mavis while it does seem a touch Orwellian, it is better than “Cargo 200”.
I sincerely hope that the Australian Government does not send anti-drone and anti-missile units to defend the Gulf States.
Especially now that Iran has apologized for attacking them and has promised not to do it again.
Let the Gulf States use their climate loot to defend themselves.
PP at 9.05am.
Finally he/she posts something truthful;
“one nation who is the proxy for Trump in Australia”
That is why Hanson and Rinehart suck up to Chump at his gaudy palaces. Hanson thinks she can end up being a billionaire like Rinehart and Chump.
By the way, the sentence I quoted from PP was preceded by “Btw labor fears”. Wrong, it has amusement value only.
Excellent point about the logistics choke points, IMO. It is something we learned from the Ukraine War and have emphasized once again during Trump’s War.
Albanese needs to expand still further the domestic production of missiles his government initiated.
On China, I have it on the full authority of numerous bludgers that it does not matter that China:
1. Is engaged in the biggest peace time naval construction build in world history
2. Is adding the equivalent of the RAAF to its air force every year.
3. Has the world’s biggest army.
4. Rams Philippines vessels in Philippines sovereign territory.
5. Is building a military base inside Bhutan.
6. Is making numerous war like threats
7. Authorizes its military to make dangerous passes in international waters…
…because Xi is a peace lover.
Just out of interest , Pageboi, what is your preference for an alternative government and what particular foreign policies and other policies do you envisage ?
BTW, I notice that it is something of an anti-Israel and anti-US meme that posits that they are running out of missiles. Or will run out before Iran runs out of drones.
If they gain aerial supremacy, which they seem to have either done or got either close to, they don’t need missiles to attack anymore.
They have plenty of relatively cheap glide bombs. The US produces something like 10,000 a year of the standard glide bomb used extensively by Israel to flatten Gaza. Some of the larger GBUs carry far bigger warheads than most missiles.
The point? Provided the US keeps supplying them, even when Trump does his TACO, Netanyahu has an indefinite capacity to continue flattening selected targets in Iran. IMO that indefinite military capacity is not matched with an indefinite strategic capacity implied by Iran’s capacity to keep the SoH closed. The latter will, IMO, force Netanyahu to stop with his ritualistic state killing program. IMO this is why Netanyahu is sounding increasingly shrill. He knows he is running out of time.
Missile supplies do now matter for Israel and the US is when they are used to destroy incoming missiles and drones. Iran has de facto announced that its missiles and drones will only be used against Israel, US planes and ships, and against Gulf tankers.
Iron dome is not perfect but it effectively reduces the destructive impact of Iranian missile to the level of tactical noise. Israeli military losses thus far are negligible when measured against Israel’s total military power.
Israeli military targets are hardened. Israeli unit towers all have a strengthened safe room attached to each flat.
I see that Netanyahu is doing a version of peace though war.
Butter would not melt in his mouth.
Boerwar
Yes we really need to make some policy decisions about not just having local missile production, but deciding which weapons are most essential to being able to defend ourselves and making those locally.
Dependency is dangerous when your supplier does not have the physical capacity to supply them, even if not run by a lunatic.
Australia should be able to make the following locally under license, or shift to alternatives we can make.
SSMs (NSM in progress)
LRCMs
SAMs
AAMs
This is the sort of thing we might share with Canada, Korea or Japan rather than USA. Norway and Sweden also make good quality missiles that might agree to local production.
Lest this sound far fetched, we have done it before. Back in the 60s we locally made an ASW missile, Ikara, so well we exported it to multiple NATO navies.
Socrates
Iran did not close Strait of Hormuz .
Seven Insurance companies residing in London did that.
They simply stopped re-insuring from March 5.
Even if the war stops today, it will take several weeks before the vessels passing through Strait of Hormuz can be insured by Insurance companies.
The re-insurance companies are
Gard, Skuld, North Standard, London P&I Club, American Club, Steamship Mutual.
12 P&I Club insure roughly 90% of all ocean going tonnage on earth.
Albo,
This is how to deal with the US President
https://youtu.be/20934JY8RlY?si=cjNdL3Ve_lsyLfoa
(Is the ALP in a state of Sedevacantism?)
Socrates:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 10:08 am
Xi will be cashing in on the chaos, though if this article can be relied upon, which probably can’t, given the source is Trump’s bestie Witkoff, Iran possesses ‘enough enriched fuel to build 11 nuclear bombs.’
https://nypost.com/2026/03/03/us-news/iran-claimed-to-have-enough-uranium-for-11-nuclear-bombs-during-geneva-talks-us-envoy-witkoff-says/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
It was gratifying to hear Peter Hartcher make the point I have been making all along, and for the women, Sam Maiden and Annabel Crabb and the Host of Insiders, David Speers, to all agree with Hartcher that, if something good can come out of this war with Iran that it will be that the Women of Iran are no longer having their lives controlled by the mediaeval Mullahs. On this International Womens Day.
Excellent post, IMO.
I just had a stray thought.
Imagine if Trump were running China…
Albo has copped a bit on PB because “he has RAN sailors on the US submarine that attacked the Iranian ship.”
Albo is probably aware that a part of the AUKUS arrangement is that Australian sailors will be trained by the US Navy. That the Australian Prime Minister is involved in assigning sailors to particular US ships is gross stupidity.
There will most likely be Australian sailors on other US submarines and at nuclear shore facilities as well. Albo would have no role in deciding where particular RAN members serve. It is also most likely that the RAN members involved are high ranking members with specialised engineering skills, not those who man the guns or torpedo tubes.
BW bringing in the ‘billionaires’ and telling them to get with the ******* program is something the Chinese do well.
This was true for the first couple of days following 28 February. Now, not so much.
The facts that your post does not explain are:
1. Iran has attacked seven tankers.
2. The Guards have announced that the Strait is closed. Trump’s response to this was to promise escorts and to promise re-insurance funds. (Trump has, presumably, moved on from this promise because the USN would have told him that he would be losing destroyers).
3. The actual real world meaning of what ‘Iran’ means now that there is a clear disjunct between what the remnants of the civilian government are saying in public and what the Guards are saying in public.
haha. I am taking the long view. China has had some terrible despots wrecking the joint over the last three millenia or so.
I note that all of Bludger’s Dedicated Team of Anti-Labor Slaggers missed THE crucial point about the sinking of the Deni.
It showed just how strategically important submarines are.
A couple of Virginia class subs can close the Indian Ocean to merchant shipping more or less indefinitely.
I just heard a clip of Trump boasting about the number of Iranian naval ships the US is sinking.
Apart from the kilo class subs, the loss of Iran’s fleet is irrelevant to the outcomes of this war. (The tinnies and the smaller water-borne UAVs do potentially matter in the SoH.)
He was, BTW, very heavily into ‘slurping’ during the interview.
AI made the following up:
‘Slurping for breath” is not a standard medical term but describes a wet, labored, or noisy inhalation often associated with severe respiratory distress, upper airway obstruction, or end-of-life breathing patterns. It indicates that the body is struggling to bring in air, often due to fluid, mucus, or airway narrowing.’
Hard Being Green,
It’s really hard being an idealist in a world, and blog, full of cynics.
Let everyone else delve into the minutiae of Trump’s megalomania and mistakes, that’s not my jam. My eyes are looking at the horizon and hoping for the best. Starting with the Iranian Women’s Soccer Team.
Test. Morning bludgers. A couple of long posts of mine have failed to upload. have I been binned or banned at long last?
C@t
Of course an outcome for women and gay rights finally happening, would be ideal and with time, achievable.
The point is Trump and co are not attacking Iran for this reason
Every other reason but that one
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-08/government-request-military-asset-gulf-states-iran-war-/106429450
And so continues the staged entry of Australia into the latest yank fuckup.
“She would not provide details on the type of military assistance being considered, but said the government would be transparent if it accepted the request.
The minister reiterated that Australia’s position remains that it will not participate in offensive action against Iran. ”
So Australia will go to the aid of Gulf states in a way yet to be determined, because those Gulf States are being attacked by Iran in part because said countries are being used as forward staging grounds for US forces that attacked Iran in the first place because the Israelis forced their hand.
Cant wait for the Government to “consider” the next request for escalation.
“ Taylormade says:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 10:06 am
Pageboisays:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 8:21 am
Albo is a complete fraud, he’s gone from fighting tories to being one, and Penny Wong never met a value she wouldn’t sell out.
_______________________
+1”
_________
Textbook horseshoe.
TPOF says:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 9:19 am
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 6:55 am
So says a couple of cynical, opportunistic males. Good to know you support ultra religious males exerting control over the women in their countries. If I’m a ‘white colonialist’ then you two are mediaeval religion supporters. And don’t try and worm out of that responsibility by saying you don’t support the Iranian Mullahs. By your lack of support for the aspirations of Iranian Women, you do.
_________________________________________
They don’t care about women. They don’t care about Palestine. They don’t care about Iran. They just hate Big Satan and Little Satan.
And moi. 😉
To the extent that they will excuse any crime by the Iranian leadership, IRGC and Religious Police, with a convenient, mealy-mouthed, ‘Don’t think I like the Iranian government either, but…’ 🙄
A_E the universe is telling you to turn all your ideas into one line zingers
Trump is not having a great start to the month…
https://charliesykes.substack.com/p/the-sum-of-trumps-fears
haha. I did enjoy that one. Taylormade has never had so many real friends.
Mavis
Yes this sounds as believable as what Colin Powell said before invading Iraq. They really should come up with better lies.
The weapons inspection people all think that Iran has achieved 60% enrichment in its uranium stocks. This is suspicious because it is more than the 6% to 20% enrichment needed for nuclear power. But it is still well short of the 93+% needed to make a nuclear weapon.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-sci-tech/iran-uranium-enrichment-nuclear-10270503/
BW
Yesterday night I posted the explanatory post around 2:30 am
It appears William Bowe has deleted it because it was very long post.
If William Bowe gives me permission to post it, it will repost it again.
William Bowe
Please give me permission to post the relevant post again.
I think it is a very important article.
Ven, can’t you just post a link to the article?
A federal judge ruled Kari Lake was illegally appointed to run the U.S. Agency for Global Media and voided all actions taken between July 31 and Nov. 19, including mass layoffs of hundreds of employees.
Jan Fran from Ette Media did a nice two Albos take yesterday, with all the receipts
The only horse shoe is Albo moving from fighting Tories to being one. Makes sense he and Penny are close they both have no values and just say what they think the room wants to hear.
John Winston Howard has a better understanding of Labor values than those two.
I would like to but I can’t. There is no link. I will ask my friend who sent me that article to me again to send the link.
I was staggered when I read the article.
BW, just dismissed my point. I am almost certain BW got it wrong
I really hope I am wrong and BW is correct.
Times UK: The drone that hit the UK’s air base in Cyprus was equipped with Russian military hardware
It contained a Russian-made Kometa-B navigation system, previously seen in drones shot down by Ukrainian air defences. The components have been sent to a UK laboratory for investigation after the UK ruled out Iran as the launch source.
Wearing a baseball cap! Remember when Republicans lost their minds at Obama for wearing a tan suit?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/07/iran-war-us-trump-israel-strikes/
Apparently, today is Women’s Day.
Happy Women’s Day to C@tmomma, Victoria and other female bloggers of PB. 🙂
HH, thats very interesting; so the likely culprits are either Russia (keen for the yanks to get stuck and waste as much resources as possible that otherwise could be used by Ukraine oorrrrrr
A country with access to the tech who sees it in their best interests to expand the roster against Iran. I wonder which country that could be…
There is no plan, nor was there any plan.
———————————
That is the plan. Trump knows how to operate in chaos. Most other players need the rules and norms to orchestrate their behaviour.
It is not good enough to just say ‘Trump doesn’t have a plan” or “Trump isn’t playing by the rules”. His followers don’t believe you in the first and don’t care wrt the second.
Happy international women’s day to the women of Palestine, may the genocide using planes Australia supplies parts for be a little bit less heartbreaking for a day, and the women of Afghanistan, how goes your ‘freedom’, any words of advice for your Iranian friends, any advice for colonial white saviour types who want to see the Iranians bombed to freedom, something that has never ever worked, one primary school at a time. It i lucky those primary school kids didn’t have mothers, because if they did those mothers would be heart broken.
Edit a typo and: oh I left out the women of Lebanon, hopefully when Israel bombs you to peace today you appreciate the death and destruction like you should and be properly thankful. The women of Iraq, well sorry like the women of Afghanistan you are on your own, to the women of Syria, do try to avoid the bombs, and make sure the Australian women and children aren’t treated to well they deserve nothing they made their beds and well we have decided they aren’t Australian, even though they are …
WWP, dont forget the women of the Gulf, our allies that still treat women AT BEST as 2nd class citizens, and usually engage in slavery.