Farrer by-election and federal electoral miscellany (open thread)

A date announced and candidate details starting to emerge for the by-election to be held in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer, plus sundry other items of electoral news.

The date of the Farrer by-election has been set for May 9, as announced in parliament on Thursday by the Speaker, Milton Dick. Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates that Labor is not running, which I have not seen reported elsewhere, and there is no indication yet on who the Liberal candidate might be. One Nation yesterday endorsed David Farley, 69-year-old former head of major beef producer the Australian Agricultural Company and an activist locally on water issues. Farley was chosen by local party members ahead of Albury small business owner Leigh Wolki and agribusiness manager Guy Cooper.

A Nationals preselection vote to be held today will be contested by former Albury mayor Kylie King, former Wodonga mayor Kev Poulton, retired army colonel Brad Robertson and beef farmer Marc Greening. Helen Dalton, the state independent member for Murray, says she will not run, after earlier considering doing so either as an independent or for One Nation.

Before diving into various federal electoral matters that have been accumulating over the past two months, two non-federal matters worth noting: Labor looks to have won the Northern Territory seat of Nightcliff from the Greens at a by-election held yesterday, and a draft state redistribution for Queensland will be published on Tuesday.

• Nine Newspapers reported a fortnight ago that Special Minister of State Don Farrell has been holding “informal talks” with other parties about expanding the federal parliament. This would likely involve 12 new seats for the Senate and twice that many for the House (a requirement of the Constitution’s nexus clause), resulting in around 174 seats for the House and 88 for the Senate, though there are options for adding further seats for the territories. Any such change would take effect after the 2028 election. The Liberals have declared themselves opposed, though the report says “some Liberal MPs and strategists” are privately supportive, but the Greens and the Nationals are thought likely to be favourable.

• A Greens preselection is looming to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of Tasmanian Senator Peter Whish-Wilson, which he announced last October. Among the candidates will be Tabatha Badger, who has held a seat for the party in Lyons since the March 2024 state election. Other prospective nominees identified by the ABC are Vanessa Bleyer, an environmental lawyer who ran in Braddon in last year’s state election; Scott Jordan, an environmental campaigner and frequent election candidate; and Alistair Allan, a former Sea Shepherd captain and the party’s candidate for Lyons at last year’s federal election.

• Barnaby Joyce, who is currently slated to be One Nation’s lead Senate candidate in New South Wales, says he would “consider” running again in his existing seat of New England, presumably reflecting bullishness about the party’s position in the polls.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Policy Research has released an analysis of survey research conducted immediately after the election showing support for the proposition that democracy was “always preferable to other forms of government” ranging from just 43.8% among those aged 18-to-24 to 89.1% among those 75 and over. Those inclined to disagree were more likely to have low educational attainment, speak a language other than English at home, and live in a rural electorate. Those with religious affiliations and identifying as being on the left were more inclined to agree.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reported last month that Luke Howarth, who was unseated in the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie last year, has nominated for top position for the Senate ticket in a preselection to be held at the party’s state convention next month. This places him in opposition to James McGrath, “who is expected to hold his position”. Second spot is reserved for the Nationals and Matt Canavan, notwithstanding suggestions he may run in the lower house seat of Capricornia, and former Senator Joanna Lindgren has nominated for third.

• Antony Green has published an instructive resource in the shape of two-party preferred preference flow data by candidate from non-classic contests at the last three elections, provided to him by the Australian Electoral Commission. The AEC routinely publishes data showing how the preferences of each candidate that didn’t make the final preference count divided between those who did, but this data extends the principle to preference splits between Labor and the Coalition in those seats where an independent or minor party candidate made the final count at the expense of one or the other.

• A note regarding the BludgerTrack poll aggregate: the leadership rating trends are on hold for the moment, as accommodating the new Opposition Leader will require some code re-engineering and enough data points to produce a workable trend result, which I won’t have time to do until after the South Australian election. I have added some new tabs to the “Poll Data” feature recording voting intention by 2025 election vote and the four regional categories used by the Australian Electoral Commission, the former striking me as being of particular interest in the current environment. You can access this by clicking the “more” tab on the far right until it gets you to the relevant set of tabs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,401 thoughts on “Farrer by-election and federal electoral miscellany (open thread)”

  1. WeWantPaulsays:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 12:52 am
    These colonial white saviours of Iranian women, could perhaps ask the women of Palestine and Afghanistan how it is going with their ‘help’ from Israel and the USA?

    Miskalsays:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 1:05 am
    Dont bother WWP. Apparently some people learnt nothing from history other then there’s no limit to how many people need to be bombed so they can feel good…

    So says a couple of cynical, opportunistic males. Good to know you support ultra religious males exerting control over the women in their countries. If I’m a ‘white colonialist’ then you two are mediaeval religion supporters. And don’t try and worm out of that responsibility by saying you don’t support the Iranian Mullahs. By your lack of support for the aspirations of Iranian Women, you do.

    Guys, you think YOU can decide what Women can and can’t get with your vitriolic and mocking attacks on another woman, well that just proves how sexist and chauvinistic you supposedly most ‘Left’ of us all are. You think that it’s aok for the ultra religious men to be back in charge in Afghanistan & Gaza because you are so quick to snuff out on this blog any aspirations that the women in their countries may have for greater freedoms. They’re not allowed to have them, apparently, according to you two, because the men are back in charge again. And the same goes double for the Women of Iran.

    WeWantPaul, I bet you didn’t even notice the 5 books I linked to that have been written by Women in Afghanistan, who are still yearning to be free of the yoke of the mediaeval thugs who rule over them again? Nope, you just saddle up your hobby horse for another day of palling around with your equally blithely dismissive new best bud, Miskal, and ride off, gung ho for shooting fish in a barrel marked ‘Trump’.
    And, do you think I don’t realise what an almost equivalent bunch of religious retards the Christian Nationalists in America are? But if their action causes a step change in the conditions under which the Women of Iran can live, despite the minor inconvenience of petrol for your cars costing a bit more for a while, and it won’t be that long anyway because Iran is already retreating on attacking the Gulf States, who can refine their own oil and gas, then it will have all been worth it. Or your food bill increasing-and obviously it won’t affect you two, WeWantPaul and Miskal, because you appear to be wealthy enough not to have to work for a living and so can spend your days here attacking people like me who have hopes for other women around the world that want to fight against the constraints of religious conservatism increasing around the world.

    Hmm, let me see, what have you, WeWantPaul, Miskal, Bushfire Bill and Ven, the other major scoffers got in common? Ah, yes, you’re all males who think they know what’s best for women, and in this case it’s, sit down and shut up and stop hoping for a better life. Oh, and sterling job, Ven, spamming the blog overnight with your self-serving articles, that’s exactly what men do, assert their dominance if a woman dares to disagree with their point of view. And you lot think you’re Progressive? You lot don’t know how comfortably conservative you are. Especially you, Ven, hiding behind the deaths of those schoolgirls, maybe, and I bet you still haven’t bothered to read the ABC Verify article, but studiously ignoring the deaths of thousands of other Iranian women and girls who are fighting against the murderous regime they are forced to live under.

    Well for your ‘Afghanistan and Palestine’ I have the Suffragettes. And this:

    Maybe you could better spend your time today going to a local event and supporting Women, instead of attacking them on this blog?

  2. https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/new-gas-fired-power-station-investigated-by-state-government-c-21854259

    In advanced planning the above also looking at extending coal also.Labor in Victoria is telling people to remove gas appliances!
    This all gets back to labors fed gov population Ponzi scheme with emissions not reducing due to increased population.
    Biggest winner one nation as locals electricity bills have gone up 32% in a year with no reductions in total emissions and worst of all locals paying 32% more for electricity to squeeze in more visa holders etc.

    BTW SA election 21 March reserve bank MEETING 15/16 at least .25 maybe a .50 increase this could smash SA labors vote.Main cause of inflation apart from labor gov spending is population explosion causing Labor governments cost of living crisis.
    Blaming war when inflation was already 3.8% is ABC labor bias.

    Below-Where’s my sexist quota? No wonder productivity in Aust is down the toilet.

    PS TAXPAYERS PAY THE SUBSIDY

  3. pied piper: Premier Mali could walk down Rundle Mall slowly and naked and it would not affect the ALP vote let alone a mooted interest rate rise.

  4. pied piper the socialist! Most of that temporary increase in energy bills is from the government taking the subsidy away. Also, if you want more coal-fired power stations that’s going to have to be subsidised by government too. You can’t avoid the label ‘Socialist’ now, pied piper. 😆

  5. Is David Farley, ON candidate for Farrer, related to Rick Farley, late husband of Linda Burney and Indigenous Rights campaigner?

  6. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Trump vows to hit ‘very hard’ after Iran’s president says he won’t surrender: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/07/trump-iran-threat-military-strike-surrender-00818032

    Pentagon believes U.S. struck Iran girls elementary school, killing 150: https://www.nydailynews.com/2026/03/06/pentagon-believes-u-s-struck-iran-girls-elementary-school-killing-150/

    Pentagon chief not concerned about Russia sharing intelligence with Iran for attacks on US troops: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/07/8024303/

    US Intel Warned Iran Regime Change ‘Unlikely’ Even After War: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-intel-warned-iran-regime-change-unlikely-even-after-war-report-11182926

    Iran’s Guards challenges Trump to have US Navy escort oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-guards-challenges-trump-have-us-navy-escort-oil-tankers-strait-hormuz-2026-03-06/

    Trump tells CNN Cuba is soon going to fall: ‘I’m going to put Marco over there’: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/trump-cuba-marco-rubio-fall

    Votes are still being counted but rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah has taken a decisive early lead in Nepal’s general election which would put him on track to become the country’s next prime minister: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxdlz3y95ro

    Soham murderer Ian Huntley dies after prison attack: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80jmm00379o

    Republicans typically lead on the economy, national security, and immigration. Trump is squandering the GOP’s traditional strength on all three: https://newrepublic.com/article/207467/donald-trump-presidency-free-fall

    Senator Brags About How He Manipulated Trump, 79, Into War: https://www.thedailybeast.com/senator-lindsey-graham-brags-about-how-he-manipulated-trump-79-into-war-with-iran/

    US skips congressional review to approve munitions sale to Israel: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-state-department-approves-possible-military-sale-israel-1518-million-2026-03-07/

    College Republican chat group exposed as “Nazi haven”: “Ew you had colored professors?!”: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/03/college-republican-chat-group-exposed-as-haven-ew-you-had-colored-professors/

    Trump administration says it can’t comply with order to start tariff refunds: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/trump-tariffs-refunds-cbp

    ICE Barbie’s Alleged Lover Out of Top Job: https://www.thedailybeast.com/ice-barbies-alleged-lover-corey-lewandowski-out-of-top-job/

    US senator seeks perjury investigation into Kristi Noem over DHS spending: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/06/kristi-noem-congress-investigation

    ICE Kidnaps Journalist Who Was Covering Them: https://newrepublic.com/post/207479/ice-kidnaps-journalist-nashville

    Footage shows US citizen shot dead by ICE agent in Texas traffic stop: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedzep6gp07o

  7. Liberal Party Deputy Leader Jane Hume says her party should adopt a “whatever it takes” approach to determining preferences ahead of the next election, leaving the door wide open to cutting deals with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to help hoover up conservative votes. In an exclusive interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Senator Hume – who seized the deputy leadership from Ted O’Brien last month – said the Liberals should allocate their preferences on a seat-by-seat basis.
    “If there is a candidate that would be dangerous to have in parliament, they should be at the bottom of the ticket,” she said. “But if there’s a candidate that isn’t like that, the same rule wouldn’t apply.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/nsw/jane-hume-opens-door-to-one-nation-deals-in-whatever-it-takes-election-strategy/news-story/7d03390a1dcbd2dec7a1ab1822970bc0?amp

  8. Thanks, Hh

    Iran’s Guards challenges Trump to have US Navy escort oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-guards-challenges-trump-have-us-navy-escort-oil-tankers-strait-hormuz-2026-03-06/

    This article is well worth reading, IMO. It picks up on something I was speculating about: a disjunct between what the clergy were saying and what the Guards are doing. It takes it further: the conflict between the pragmatists and the extremists within the clergy.

  9. Did you see this story, pp?

    Some downcast party insiders fear Ashton Hurn’s Liberals could be reduced to fewer than five of the 47 lower house seats, and wiped out in metropolitan Adelaide in a political earthquake on the scale of their Western Australia’s counterparts’ landslide defeat in 2021.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/08/south-australian-liberal-party-election-polls

    You weren’t an adviser to the WA Libs in 2021, were you?

  10. There’s plenty happening at the moment with electoral matters, a few proposed administrative changes, dynamic world affairs, a few wars and a classic Country Party 1950s casting for the Farrer by election running as ON candidate.

    The Farrer contest will be a combination of immigration, water, cheap labour, environmental affairs, family budgets and the seat of Farrer being the most important place on earth

    It will be especially important for the Liberals, the Nationals and ON.

    The Australian democratic political landscape is dynamic platform dominated, as you would expect in the most gambling contorted place on earth, with the voters needing to decide which “dodgy” political poker machine pays the the most “jackpots” and to whom!

    Australia spends “truckloads” on all forms of education and roughly a 20% of the population see Poorleen, Barney, Cors, jimmy Ashby and a leftover 1950s Country Party cove as the answer.

    O’Grady’s classic has had its name changed to “they’re a ‘very’ weird mob”

  11. I’m struggling to see ANY positives from this idiotic war in Iran. What exactly has the axis of evil (the US and Israel) achieved?

    Sure, they’ve killed the Ayatollah and a bunch of Iranian leaders, but if anything it sounds like regime change is LESS likely than before, the Straits of Hormuz are closed , oil is spiking and Iran continues to launch attacks through the region, meanwhile Israel has taken advantage of the situation to completely close off the Gaza strip and complete its starvation of those people and is now on a rampage in Lebanon

    Here at home our government is apparently fine with all of this and is doubling down on Aukus and the US alliance…….. Albo is a complete fraud, he’s gone from fighting tories to being one, and Penny Wong never met a value she wouldn’t sell out. If albo had a spine or an original thought he might realise that we should be making our security IN Asia, not from it, and moving away from the US rather than towards it. They will screw us over on the end, it’s just a matter of when

  12. Morning all. Great game last night with the Lions just falling short 🙁
    Thanks HH for the international roundup. Further to your reply to PP on the SA Liberal’s chances:

    pied piper: Premier Mali could walk down Rundle Mall slowly and naked and it would not affect the ALP vote let alone a mooted interest rate rise

    And Ashton Hurn could discover a cure to cancer and it would not change the fact that the SA Liberals are a rabble dominated by Alex Antic with four former MPs convicted of charges.

  13. Happy International Women’s Day

    Let’s hope C@ts dreams of freedom for the women of Iran, and the rest of the world come true. Although I can’t agree that an illegal war is the best way to get there

    Noting. That freedom won’t look the same for all women

    One by-election down, congrats on your narrow win last night Labor folk, a couple to go along with the South Australian election. Big couple of months coming up here and abroad

    I hope the Liberals are punished for their flirtations with One Nation wherever they occur and that progressive left parties, or at least more moderate ones, win out as widely as possible

  14. Also, wot she said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/07/pms-pragmatism-on-trumps-iran-fury-risks-australia-following-us-into-operation-epic-fail

    Anthony Albanese’s support for actions that do not adhere to international law stands in stark contrast to the principles demonstrated by Labor two decades ago

    Yup, and how many times have Albo and Penny stood up and crapped on about the “international rules based order”???????

    Thanks to Albo we have sailors serving on US submarines and participating in war crimes, plus he invited in more marines and B52 bombers, and is literally paying to build a base for the yanks in Perth and giving them money for their submarine program with absolutely no guarantee of anything in return. How does any of this make us safer? Whitlam would be spinning in his grave

  15. Trump says that oil prices will come down ‘very fast.
    Trump’s options to reverse soaring oil prices are ‘severely limited unless he can rapidly reopen the Strait of Hormuz’, according to FT report.

  16. A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

    The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.

    The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/

  17. CREA have this report on China’s 15th Five-Year Plan:
    https://energyandcleanair.org/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-implications-for-climate-and-energy-transition/

    In the lead-up to its release it was hoped that it would include clear commitments to transition away from coal-fired power generation to ensure that CO2 emissions, which have been flat or falling for the last two years, don’t increase in the future. Those hopes were not realised:

    The overall approach to the plan continues to be to scale up clean energy and cleantech industries, relying on falling costs and increasing supply of clean energy to drive down emissions rather than focusing on strong, measurable emission targets.

    The plan aims to double clean energy in the next ten years, but it doesn’t specify whether that is nameplate capacity or actual generation. This is to be achieved through the continued expansion of gigantic clean energy bases, which include:
    – wind and solar in the N and NW deserts (yellow),
    – wind, solar and water in the SW hydropower-rich provinces (green),
    – nuclear on the coast (red circles), and
    – wind offshore.
    Connected by cross-region electricity transmission channels (red arrows):

    There is also a focus on zero-carbon transport corridors and industrial parks which are decarbonised by replacing oil and gas with electrification and green hydrogen.

    Thus, while there are no firm constraints on emissions there is continuing policy support to scale up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries. Consequently, China’s emissions trajectory over the next five years remains uncertain. As sector-specific plans are developed in the coming months and years, perhaps more clarity will emerge.

    Further information: https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/

  18. Happy international women’s day to all women, including those oppressed in Afghanistan and Iran.

    Unfortunately though, as the report Confessions referred to confirms, Iran is a really difficult place to invade, more like Afghanistan than Iraq geographically. With a larger population and military than Afghanistan, it would be harder to conquer than Afghanistan. Without such a land conquest, the regime seems unlikely to change.

    The US and Israeli strikes on Iran were clearly to suppress its military (benefiting Israel) but do not appear to have been accompanied by any long term plan to change Iran’s government, as opposed to its leader. Meanwhile Lebanon is coping a collateral invasion from Israel.

    The only comfort Albo can take from Iran and his statements so far is that Angus Taylor was much more unhinged on the same subject.

  19. Australia plays an uncomfortable and important role as a middle power

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-08/middle-powers-rules-based-order-anthony-albanese-mark-carney/106419438

    “Albanese is forever seeking to balance alliance politics with the country’s longstanding commitment to respecting international law.

    Consideration of this, along with other domestic calculations, would have factored strongly in his decision to swiftly indicate support for the initial Iran strikes.

    Generally though, he has preferred to move only once a critical mass of like-minded countries is prepared to do the same.
    :::
    Middle powers may have a larger role to play in the emerging world order, but that role still comes with the same old dilemma: how far are they willing to defend the rules when the countries bending them are their closest allies?

  20. I’m not sure what pp’s incoherent posts above were meant to mean exactly, but I can confirm that getting rid of gas at home, plus getting an EV and not paying for petrol ever again, were two of the best financial decisions I’ve ever made.

  21. Rapper-turned-politician Balen Shah defeats former prime minister in historic Nepal election

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-08/nepal-election-rapper-turned-politican-balen-shah-party-victory/106428916

    “”It is actually the people’s revolt against the established political parties,” he said.

    “The people understand that the new do not really have strong agendas, but it is a punishment to the parties for their decades-long poor governance.””

  22. “I’ll get back to you on that“

    I hate to disappoint all… any speculation re US polling & outcome is a total waste of time..

    “So beyond this horrible save act that we’ve talked about many times before, there’ll be other things going on. And the other thing to mention here is this morning, the great Maggie Goodlander, Congresswoman from New Hampshire, grilled a top Defense Department official this morning, and said, you have plans to send thousands of military forces into all 50 states to prepare for a civil disturbance, which is the precursor to invoking the Insurrection Act and very possibly suspending the election. And his response was, I’ll get back to you on that, which is insane.”

    From DSR’s Words Matter: Trump’s Mental Meltdown (feat. Mary Trump), 7 Mar 2026
    https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/dsrs-words-matter/id1420216970?i=1000753681352&r=1948

    “I’ll get back to you on that“.. yes a valid answer as he may not be in the know.. but it shouts loud & clear where the US is right now .. anything is possible.

    There will be no more elections in the US..

  23. pied piper says:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 7:38 am

    PP is just a first generation Russian AI bot let out to play for the morning.

  24. Some of us worry about the pensioners not being able to turn the aircon on over summer and heating in winter due to the expense.Then there is the taxpayer debt due to subsidies.
    Some ones paying the bills for the road charges EVs do not pay for also.Its people who cannot afford EVS so piss on them as well.
    Someone’s also paying for the upkeep of the electricity system not solar users so piss on people who cannot afford solar like asset rich but cash poor home owners like pensioners.

    Gas is not as renewable as nukes!

    Btw labor fears one nation who is the proxy for Trump in Australia.Interest rate rise/s coming.

    Policies like the above drive oldies etc to one nation.

  25. Trump will likely find himself backpedaling from the demand for unconditional surrender. He might also redefine unconditional to denote more easily achieved aims. (Indeed, hours after Trump’s post, the White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt was already offering an interpretation of unconditional that was far more limited than absolute capitulation.) Soon, the Americans could find themselves retreating to the strategic incoherence that has characterized the administration’s approach since the first hours of the war. Military operations and national purpose will become more and more distanced from each other, because military prowess cannot clarify America’s war aims. As the old saying warns: If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.

    My colleagues Marie-Rose Sheinerman and Isabel Ruehl have pointed out the severity of this problem by noting that Trump and his aides have offered at least 10 rationales for war over the course of only six days. Rationale No. 1 was “an imminent threat” from Iran, Rationale No. 2 was nuclear weapons, Rationale No. 5 was election interference, Rationale No. 6 was “world peace” writ large, Rationale No. 10 was that America had been dragged into the war by Israel. Some of these reasons might constitute a casus belli—others, such as Rationale No. 9 (“fulfill God’s purpose”), less so—but Trump’s team has thrown them all at the wall to see what sticks, perhaps in part because the war is still unpopular with the American public and Trump has so far seen no “rally ’round the flag” benefit from launching it.

    But each of these rationales demands a different strategy; eliminating an imminent threat involves a different set of operations than establishing peace in the region (or the world). Instead, the Americans are choosing an “all of the above” approach, employing immense power across Iran. Entranced by the show, Trump, Hegseth, and others assume that because these operations are going well, something good will come of them. This kind of poor strategy, ironically, is an option only because of the excellence of the American and Israeli militaries: If Trump had to make decisions under greater material or military constraints, such as shortages of money, weapons, or talent, he would have to choose an actual war aim and stay with it.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/iran-strategy-victory-disease/686275/

    Trump definitely has ‘victory disease’. Evidenced by the fact he’s now talking about regime change in Cuba while the situation in Iran is still very unclear.

  26. Yes , Soc, a disapointment for the Lions last night, following Oscars miss at pole in the F1.
    More than made up for by the Reds incredible win in Canberra and topped off this morning with the Azzurri Rugby knocking off the “anyone but England” Poms- vai, vai Forza Italia!
    And the Scots defeating France… The Flower reign supreme at Murrayfield!
    All three games were testament to running Rugby and why Rugby is the football worlds second most followed code.

  27. pied piper says:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 9:05 am

    Yep let “your” pensioners undermine renewables out of their selfishness , let them piss on the planet & leave the next generation to deal with the mess…

  28. ‘Trump warns Iran ‘will be hit very hard’ as war enters its second week

    What began last Saturday as coordinated attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel has sprawled into a wider conflict with repercussions around the world.

    The American-Israeli military campaign set off a series of attacks and counterattacks that have hit or threatened several Gulf nations. The conflict also triggered political tensions and economic upheaval, drawing in countries far beyond the Middle East.

    More than 1,300 people in Iran have been killed as a result of the ongoing fighting, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. American and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as dozens of his top officials. The Iranian navy and air force have also been wiped out and soon, Israel and the U.S. will have complete control of Iranian skies, according to the Pentagon.

    Israel’s Air Force announced on Saturday it had conducted more strikes in Tehran, including an attack on military infrastructure located at Mehrabad Airport, which it described as “a central hub used by the IRGC to arm and fund its terror proxies across the Middle East.”

    President Trump also signaled the U.S. could broaden its target list.

    Trump has said he would not negotiate with Iran unless it was prepared to unconditionally surrender — making it unclear when the fighting will cease and how many more nations may be pulled into the conflict.’

    https://www.npr.org/2026/03/07/nx-s1-5739242/iran-war-oil-trump-israel-spain-economy-one-week

    Historically, attempting to bomb a country into submission doesn’t exactly have a good track record, as evidenced by the U.S. dropping more bombs in the Vietnam War than in all of World War II, and given it’s highly unlikely that the Iranian regime will obey Trump’s directive to surrender unconditionally, this war will most likely have legs for some time.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 6:55 am

    So says a couple of cynical, opportunistic males. Good to know you support ultra religious males exerting control over the women in their countries. If I’m a ‘white colonialist’ then you two are mediaeval religion supporters. And don’t try and worm out of that responsibility by saying you don’t support the Iranian Mullahs. By your lack of support for the aspirations of Iranian Women, you do.
    _________________________________________

    They don’t care about women. They don’t care about Palestine. They don’t care about Iran. They just hate Big Satan and Little Satan.

  30. ‘Iran-US war latest: Trump tells Starmer ‘we don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won.

    The so-called special relationship has come under strain as Donald Trump demands complete surrender from Iran.

    Donald Trump dismissed British support in the Middle East amid a growing spat with the prime minister over his reluctance to get involved in the US conflict with Iran.

    The US president acknowledged reports that Britain is weighing sending an aircraft carrier to the region, as the HMS Prince of Wales was prepared to set sail within days.

    “The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Saturday evening.

    “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”

    The president has publicly attacked Sir Keir after Britain gave delayed permission to the US to use its airbases for ‘defensive’ purposes during the war with Iran.’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-latest-updates-tehran-israel-trump-uk-b2933844.html

    It’s okay, Charles & Camilla are due to visit Washington on April 26. They’ll repair the relationship that Starmer appears to have bungled – agin one day, for the next.

  31. Peg
    “When is an illegal war, morally justifiable”
    At least Evans comes to the right conclusion on this war but you would have to have a very high bar to say that your view of moral justification overcomes international law.
    (The wording reminds me of George W, having been rebuffed by a triple veto in the Security Council saying he would be justified by getting a moral (i.e. simple) majority. Unfortunately he couldn’t convince Guinea or Cameroon of the moral imperative of invading Iraq)

  32. From previous thread

    Miskalsays:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 1:05 am
    Dont bother WWP. Apparently some people learnt nothing from history other then there’s no limit to how many people need to be bombed so they can feel good…

    Miskal
    As per Hegseth, US bombed 3000 targets

  33. After watching Penny Wong on Insiders I’ll just say that the standard you walk past, or refuse to call out, is the standard you accept

    Made some good points but embarrassing in the main

  34. From previous thread
    Catherine Rampell/The Bulwark:

    Trump’s “Warflation” Has Just Begun

    If he were trying to increase prices on purpose, would he be doing anything differently?

    Gasoline might be the most noticeable price Trump is turbocharging right now, but it’s far from the only one.

    Other energy markets are affected, too. Qatar, which supplies about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, halted LNG production after a drone attack. Production there will take weeks to restart.

    As a result, downstream firms that require LNG to operate are closing shop, too. For example, the Gulf region is responsible for nearly a tenth of the global aluminum supply. Already this week, multiple major aluminum smelters had to initiate shutdowns; one company says it may take up to a year to restart production.

    Production of methanol and other chemicals has also been disrupted. Same with fertilizers used to grow the world’s food supply: Roughly 35 percent of global exports of urea (the most common nitrogen fertilizer) and 45 percent of global exports of sulfur (used to produce phosphate fertilizers) traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices are already spiking, and American farmers are freaking out. Consumers may see “higher prices for bread within six to 10 weeks, eggs within a few months and pork and broiler chicken within six months,” according to an estimate from food-system expert Raj Patel.

  35. From previous thread
    Vensays:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 2:38 am
    Nick Judin
    @nickjudin
    Unlike every evil, craven, idiotic decision Trump’s made in office, the Iran War is finally the act he can’t immediately retreat from. Every one of his catastrophic failures (DOGE, liberation day, siege of minneapolis, regime change in venezuela, etc.) he survived by abandoning.
    5:52 PM · Mar 7, 2026
    ·
    495
    Views

  36. Vensays:
    Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 2:44 am
    Arnaud Bertrand
    @RnaudBertrand
    This is genuinely extraordinary: https://x.com/MicloutT/status/2029441221374992857/video/1

    Speaking is General Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

    He says that the UK “should not, in any way, shape or form be involved with the Americans because they are being led by a couple of gung-ho nutters like Trump and Hegseth without a proper strategy and without serious thought about what the end state for this war is.”

    He goes on: “Yet again we have an American president who has gone to war, a war of choice, a war of hubris frankly, without ANY

    the emphasis is his

    clear idea of how the war ends and without any clear strategy.” He predicts that “this thing is going to go south very, very quickly.”

    He highlights in particular just how foolish it was to kill Ayatollah Khamenei: “The idea of assassinating the Ayatollah Khamenei who was not just Iran’s head of state but he was the religious symbol for Shiites worldwide. Assassinating him during the month of Ramadan is about as subtle as murdering the Pope on the steps of St Peter’s in Holy Week. It will inflame the Shiite world and what you’re doing by doing that is probably pushing large numbers of Iranians who might have been reconcilable, who might have thought about rising up, back into the fold of the irreconcilable.”

    https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2029743059861397764?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2029743059861397764%7Ctwgr%5Ef0b40cd1bc28bf967d4202938186a0d06d76e911%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F3%2F7%2F2372056%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Didn-t-think-it-through-The-Karma-gods-take-notice
    (watch video)

  37. I wasn’t paying close attention to Insiders. I think there was something about reverse ferrets driving Tonka trucks above the speed limit. Maybe pp writes their lines?

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