The Sunday Telegraph today carries a DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, recording primary votes of 34% for Labor, down three on the last such poll in October; 23% for the Coalition, down seven; 21% for One Nation, for whom no result was recorded in October; and 15% for the Greens, up two. Chris Minns records personal ratings of 38% positive, 45% neutral and 17% negative, while Kellie Sloane is at 22% positive, 59% neutral and 19% negative. Minns holds a 48-24 lead over Sloane for preferred premier, bettering his 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman from October.
Also featured are results on upper house voting intention, which have Labor on 29%, One Nation on 22%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%, with none of the minor players exceeding 2%. This compares with equivalent results at the 2023 election of Labor 36.6%, Coalition 29.8%, Greens 9.1% and One Nation 5.9%. The poll was conducted February 24 to March 4 from a sample of 1032.
There was also a Roy Morgan SMS poll a fortnight ago which had One Nation at an improbable 30%, ahead of both Labor on 25% and the Coalition on 19%, with the Greens on 12.5%. It was conducted February 16 to 19 from a sample of 2108.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
With OPV those PVs are hard to predict the final outcome. However, it is certainly not good news for L-NP.
PHON will be a strong presence in upper house.
ALP, -3, GRN, +2. But Labor have lost votes to One Nation??
What’s the login behind that headline summation, William?
Greens in the mid-teens, I like to see that
Looks like the right wing media attempt to turn Sloane into the next Premier by constantly repeating their reporting error that she was “at the Bondi massacre while it was happening” has failed.
The continued rise of One Nation is laid squarely at the feet of the Liberal Party. Their incompetence, corruption, lies and then their dog-whistling turning into whistling and flirting with ON preference deals has caused people to abandon them. Why go for racism light when you can go for racism full strength.
The word from well connected Liberals I know, reckon that they fear losing every seat on the North Shore to independents and Ryde, Epping and Hornsby to Labor. Labor will easily pick up Ryde and made a mistake not running in the Epping Byelection. If the voting intent mirrors the federal vote last May it will be a blood bath for the Liberals in those seats.
Minns’ popularity going up also makes a mockery of the Greens Political Party voters here who said Minns would be politically punished for his strong response to the Greens white saviour protests that Josh Lees weaponised in an attempt to boost his profile and hurt Labor.
https://demosau.com/news/minns-popularity-climbs-as-one-nation-splits-conservative-vote-in-nsw/
Primaries vs last election result: 34 (-3) L/NP 23 (-12.4) ON 21 (+19.2) GRN 15 (+2) OTH 7 (-9.1)
“If preferences flowed as per the 2023 state election this would result in a two-party preferred of 61-39% to Labor. However, this figure should be treated with caution due to the dramatically changed One Nation vote and the Optional Preferential Voting system used for NSW state elections.”
In 2023 the TPP was ALP 54.26 vs L/NP 45.74
44:49
Right:Left
Coalition + ON: Labor + Greens
It was either Kos or Tony Barry (one of them!) saying that the preference bleed on the right is worse than on the left – I think 85% consistently voting Green 1 and ALP 2. What PHON will deliver is anyone’s guess, as is what Libs will do if they come 3rd
Minns is universally hated by some on the left, including Sydney Morning Herald letter writers, and he’s often accused of dancing to the tune set by 2GB shockjocks and the Daily Telegraph. I think some in the Muslim community too think Minns has been too supportive of the Jewish community since October 7, 2023, including some on his own backbench.
However, look at the polls, this bloke will probably be reelected Premier in March 2027 because he’s a terrific communicator and he appeals to those in the centre.
Kellie Sloan to me is rather unimpressive – better media performer than Mark Speakman, sure, but she never has much of substance to say, and her shadow front bench is cod ordinary.
Corleone:
No, no, ALABAMA has been very clear that there will be no preference leakage whatsoever between One Nation and the Liberals, and if we can’t trust an experienced psephologist like him, who can we trust?
There will end up being twice as many Nationals as Liberals if it does end up 61/39 in a worst case scenario for the right where One Nation finishes 3rd behind the Nats/Libs and a lot of ON votes exhaust.
It would be a long shot but there might be a chance for a better independent/Teal than the nimby that took 17% last election to win the seat if the swing punishes Sloane a little bit more than 61/39 and most of it goes to the Teal so they can stay in the 2CP.
Here’s a bit of a long shot: the Greens could pick up Lismore. That seat was boringly safe Nat for decades, the Greens ran them close a couple of times (and also won Ballina), then Labor ran former federal MP Janelle Saffin and won big. (Solid Nat all through the Carr and Wran years, now safer for Labor than Cabramatta.) She’ll be 72 by the next election and will presumably retire, and take her hefty personal vote with her; if the Nats can’t win it back due to One Nation getting in their way, the Greens could have a genuine chance.
@Bird of paradox says: Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12:44 am
Checking previous results for Lismore, I’m very surprised that the Greens managed to make 2pp within the state 2 times, let alone get a 52.9-47.1 NAT-GRN result in 2015. Afaik, unless I’m missing something, Lismore does not have the same high income, progressive, environmental, hippy city migrants as Byron Bay or Ballina. Is there something special about Northern NSW which leads to the Greens doing well there?
The Nat vote got whacked in 2015 in a few northern NSW seats over coal seam gas, and a lot of that vote never came back. Upper Hunter became suddenly marginal, and a few years later a Labor opposition leader (in the wilderness years after the Obeid/Tripodi government) got sacked on the pretext of failing to win the seat in a by-election. I thought that was a bit harsh, but that’s NSW Labor for you.
Lismore (the seat) has a lot of weird little hippy towns, same as Ballina – it’s been like that for ages. I think Nimbin is in there somewhere. WA has something similar in the seat of Warren-Blackwood – mostly very rustic old Nat-voting towns, with a few weird blips where the Greens get 30%. In the NSW northern rivers, those towns are concentrated enough that the Greens can actually win seats. That area has been a magnet for alternative-lifestyle types since long before the Greens existed. (Also anti-vaxers – one of those towns recently had a measles outbreak.)
Lismore the town? About the only thing I know about it is that Grinspoon come from there and it floods a lot.
Lismore is very hippy and alternative. I know a few folks who’ve moved up there to be tree dwellers and organic veggie growers. It also is a university town and quite progressive.
From my very casual observation, the two vital differences between Lismore and surrounds and the coastal area of Ballina/Byron are age demographic and property prices. Oldies need somewhere to live; young’uns need somewhere to rent.
Notahorse
Lismore is a mere shadow of what it was in the mid to late 1990’s when Southern Cross Uni had aprox 4-5k students on campus. Its ironic that the site in East Lismore is now leased out to other educational entities with about 800 uni students on that campus. Students were a key driver of train travel in and out of Lismore until the Coffs and Gold Coast campuses came on line in the early 2000’s. Lismore is no longer the centre of the SCU universe.
As uni’s in Lismore goes there’s SCU but Sydney is also there via the School of Rural health.
The joke is there’s two uni’s in Lismore the small one and the big one. Where Sydney is the small one.
Bludgeoned Westie: When was the last time you went to Lismore? It’s been extremely popular with tree-changing Greens voter types of all ages, and has been for years. Saffin – who has a lot of appeal to many of those voters – has been an unusually strong candidate – and I wouldn’t count on the Labor vote holding up once she’s gone.
From memory the Greens vote was about 14% in the Lismore electorate at the last election. They won’t be winning it any time soon.
And the growth in Lismore is around Goonellabah where they are less popular still.
https://pollbludger.net/nsw2023/Results/LA.htm?s=Lismore
Lismore also got smashed by the floods in 2022, it came out in the aftermath that the Liberal Government had rejected the Council’s reports and request for flood mitigation and research.
Huge personal vote for Janelle Saffin up there in Lismore, she had a huge swing to her in the 2023 election. As long as she stays the MP, Labor won’t be losing that seat.
I’d agree that the pickup opportunities from the Liberals Labor would be focused on in 2027 would be Ryde, Holsworthy, Miranda, possibly Epping, Terrigal too of course.
Lane Cove could easily go in even a moderately poor night for the Liberals.
People around there have got the taste for voting Labor now and Roberts might have out stayed his welcome, if he runs again
@Rebecca says: Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12:33 pm
“When was the last time you went to Lismore? ”
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I’m a Sandgroper, so I’m naturally isolated from the rest of the world. On the bright side, there’s plenty of stuff about the East that I keep learning about everyday. With the exception of Ballina-Byron Bay, Alice Springs and some pockets of Southwest WA, the Greens don’t seem like a party to make much headway within rural areas.
@Democracy Sausage says: Monday, March 9, 2026 at 5:20 pm
Tweed and Oatley should probably be on that list too. I’ve also heard whispers that Drummoyne, Winston Hills, Goulburn and Upper Hunter are at risk of falling to Labor, although I have my doubts on the latter 2.
I saw a figure of 61-39 for the 2pp of that latest poll on Twitter (seems huge, but with CPV would be more like 56-44). A uniform 6% swing to Labor would get them 12 seats (10 Lib, plus Tweed and Upper Hunter from the Nats) – up the pendulum to Lane Cove. Assuming the Kiama and Pittwater by-elections hold and the rest of the crossbench stays put, that’s ALP 58 (+13) Lib/Nat 14/9 (-11/-2) Grn 3 (-) Ind 9 (-) – not a total wipeout, but a pretty good night for Labor. If the Libs lose another few seats to independents and the Nats hold off One Nation, who the senior coalition partner is might get a bit wobbly.
Is Greg Piper retiring in Lake Macquarie? If he does that’s another potential Labor gain.
One Nation chances… hmm. If the tide is running Labor’s way they won’t lose much. Monaro is regional and held by Steve Whan’s personal vote so that might be interesting.
Apart from that, the bracket of safe but not THAT safe regional Lib/Nat seats (ie: safe enough that Labor won’t win them, but not so anti-Labor that they come third – ON won’t get Labor prefs). Roughly: Oxley, Coffs Harbour, Clarence and Myall Lakes for the Nats, Albury (useful data point coming up with the Farrer by-election) and Port Macquarie for the Libs. I get the feeling ON will go after Coffs Harbour, because how dare the Nats have an Indian-Australian leader. Their online supporters / bots are gonna be extra obnoxious with that one.
Another wild card: Summer Hill. 16.8% is a big margin, but then Jo Haylen shat the bed pretty spectacularly with her government car antics. The NSW Greens don’t seem to have many likely seats they don’t already hold, so they might as well throw the kitchen sink at this one. At least make it marginal.
There’s eight seats in Melbourne which the Greens either hold or are in a marginal 2cp – how does Sydney have just two?
Bird of paradoxsays:
Tuesday, March 10, 2026 at 2:33 am
………………………………… I get the feeling ON will go after Coffs Harbour, because how dare the Nats have an Indian-Australian leader. Their online supporters / bots are gonna be extra obnoxious with that one.
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You are aware that the Coffs Harbour area has a large Indian (predominantly Sikh) community so unlikely to be high resistance to ethnic Indian representation?
Bludgeoned Westiesays:
Monday, March 9, 2026 at 1:47 am
………………………….. Afaik, unless I’m missing something, Lismore does not have the same high income, progressive, environmental, hippy city migrants as Byron Bay or Ballina. Is there something special about Northern NSW which leads to the Greens doing well there?
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There is a long history of the far north coast (and Lismore in particular) being ignored and very poorly served by the duopoly; so there is a strong pox on both your houses attitude pervading the electorate and increasing openness to other alternatives.