This week’s Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor down a point to 30.5%, the Coalition down half to 23.5%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 22% and the Greens down one to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is out from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44, but this reflects an unusually strong result on respondent-allocated preferences: the two-party measure that applies preference flows from the 2025 election has the Labor’s lead in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1554. Hopefully Morgan will shortly be publishing aggregated state breakdowns from its last month of polling, as it did at the end of January.
Speaking of respondent-allocated preferences, the Financial Review reports follow-up results from the RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll providing detail on how the flows from its result broke down by voting intention. This is particularly instructive in relation to Labor-versus-One Nation, for which election result data is scarce, Hunter being the only example of a seat where the final count came down to these two parties at the 2025 election. The poll found Liberal voters breaking 72-28 in favour of One Nation and other Coalition voters breaking 60-40, while Greens voters broke 89-11 to Labor and others broke 68-32. These are small sub-samples, the overall sample from the poll being 1006, but hopefully it’s an example other pollsters will follow.
The only similar polling data to have emerged on preference flows came from the Newspoll before last, which found 43% of Liberal voters favouring One Nation and 33% Labor, with the rest saying they did not know or that they would follow how-to-vote cards. The corresponding numbers were 70%, 6% and 24% for Nationals voters, 1%, 91% and 8% for the Greens, and 32%, 53% and 15% for others.
Kirsdarke:
I think you are overly catastrophising there.
Don’t get me wrong, I share your despair at just… everything… happening in the US and wouldn’t put it past Trump tp try to subvert democracy to that extent, but more likely than not I think Trump will TACO as usual and the midterms will go ahead, with the Republicans hoping their standard mix of bullshit and voter suppression will get them through.
Things will remain pretty shit across the states with major division and discontent, economic conditions deteriating, ICE continuing to be utter bastards, and the horrifyingly dark comedy that is the Trump administration plumbing bizarre new depths as things get even weirder and nastier… but I think they are still a long way away from an actual civil war.
I could be wrong. (Though I sure hope not!)
BW
just how does the US block Spanish goods and services without blocking all EU goods and services? And do you still imagine playing doggo(and beggar thy neighbour) is the boss way of dealing with Trump? Wasn’t there a German priest who wrote a poem about that (“First they came for the…”). It’s at best a measure for buying time, but not time for performing obituaries for those who didn’t take your advice. Heads in ground ABOUND
Not my problem! It is a problem for the spanish workers whom Australian idealists are willing to sacrifice to the moloch of demented, disinhibited and malignant narcissist.
The thing with human sacrifice is that the holy priests get to keep their jobs.
@Asha at 8:19pm
Yeah, I know I’m catastrophizing, just I feel like I need to put it out there so we can at least prepare for it.
Just, this piece of shit in absolute power of the world’s only remaining superpower being like “War, war, yeah, war, let’s take out Venezuela, let’s take out Iran, let’s take out Cuba” like a fucking sociopathic toddler in a cot makes me honestly hate humanity that we let this situation happen in the first place.
Sorry to hear about your friend C@tmomma. Hopefully this unsafe technology will not be let loose on our streets.
The Iranian President’s statement seems to have be directed towards Azerbaijan, who was attacked by a handful of drones yesterday. And they probably don’t want to start a fight with them – Azerbaijan have a standing army of about 100k troops and 300k reservists who have probably had service in the wars with Armenia. Also Azerbaijan is only other Shia nation in the world and they had actually shown great sympathy for the loss of the Supreme Leader – but they withdrew their ambassador today after the drone strikes.
I don’t see the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait or Qatar having the attacks decreasing. They are still bases for much of America’s forces in the region.
I admire Spain immensely for telling the truth about this illegal war. It would be good to see Ireland do the right thing also. It is disappointing to see the bootlicking from the UK, France, and NATO.
Cat
Sorry to hear about you friend in the Tesla crash but sadly not surprised.
When I first read about the theory of self driving cars I was a supporter of the idea which seemed to show a lot of promise. The Google system seems to work, but Tesla not so much.
I listened to some State highway engineers in a US conference a few years ago who were quite caustic about Tesla’s claims. In their real world road tests they were not able to replicate Tesla claims.
Looks like Elon rushed the product out to market to get the cash flow without full development being completed. Common to send out “beta test” software these days but in this case (cars) failure kills people. Australian regulators should be wary. Elon lies.
Kirsdarke
—————————————————
I am hopeful this might backfire on Pauline and ON. Listening to the Two Barries one of the factors supporters of oN cite is her “authenticity”. They say Pauline “tells it like it is”.
People hearing that the same billionaires who used to support the Liberals now support One Nation will hurt their image. Image is all they have got.
Friendly reminder that Australia hasn’t had the same exposure to the less then stellar outcomes of actions directed or influenced by far right populists like the poms and yanks; while you can hope that these examples may temper your fellow Aussie at the polling booth, i suspect the only way some people will learn that fire is hot is by being burnt
In Thailand early last year:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/surprise-detail-richest-australian-holiday-105024289.html
Socrates at 9.04pm.
I agree that ON hasn’t got much going for them once scrutiny of a campaign is applied. Most of their support comes from the working class who will get nothing from a party with billionaires pulling the strings and religious freaks like Joyce and Bernadi deciding women’s health outcomes.
How quickly the narrative can change…….
Not so long ago the “war” would be over in “four weeks”….
I see now the timeline has been restated as “six weeks” or, as on the most recent news “as long as it takes”.
Interesting too that we get breathless reports of damage and wreckage in parts of Israel frequently on the local news but meanwhile in Gaza, southern Lebanon………………..not so many pictures.
As is usually the case – or at least based on past reports of “wars” – the ‘news’ reports tend to be slanted to what those who feed into the media, what is wanted to be seen.
We, out in the ‘normal’ world as it were, are fed biased crap for a good part of the time.
Irans regime is cooked says it will not bomb its neighbours and its sorry for them.
Going for sympathy vote to make it look like the massive bombing coming is underserved.
As Trump said today A lot of USA service people had their legs etc blown off by Irans IEDs.
Payback is a bitch Iran.
It will be very ugly.
How the flood of retiring Republicans signals a growing blue wave
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/3/6/2371943/-How-the-flood-of-retiring-Republicans-signals-a-growing-blue-wave?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
In other news, Australia all out for 323.
Remember, it is USA, which invaded Iran and killed over 150 girls in one of its first strikes on a school in Iran.
It doesn’t matter how bad the mullahs and Ayottolahs are, little girls blood is on Trump’s hands and Republicans because Congress Republicans voted against curbing Trump’s war powers and atrocities.
I don’t know, but wouldn’t be surprised if Hurn didn’t have a say in this and an Antic controlled State Exec has effectively imposed a decision to direct preferences to ON
Ven, I am sure Chump is sorry that all those little girls have been wasted. If only Mr Epstein was still alive, he could have flown them to his island for Chumps enjoyment.
India doing badly in this Test. That’s what happens when you make all these DEI hires. All these brown women are occupying spots more qualified white men should be filling, just to meet idiotic quotas!!!1!
Granny Anny
Hegseth said
“no rules of engagement”
“death and destruction”
What horrible human beings Trump’s regime are.
Except that their working class supporters getting nothing if ON gets into government isn’t totally true.
They’ll get the satisfaction of the Left, the sanctimonous latte sippers and chardonnay-drinking non-cisgender-hetero activists of Fitzroy and Collingwood, the universities and intellectual elite, and those who dare to profess kindness and empathy, being royally f**ked over. And that is frankly enough to keep their votes.
The winds of change are blowing.
“They’ll get the satisfaction of the Left, the sanctimonous latte sippers and chardonnay-drinking non-cisgender-hetero activists of Fitzroy and Collingwood, being royally f**ked over.”
Right, so nothing then
“Things will get worse for me, but at least I get to fuck over the people I don’t like.”
I mean that line seems to work great for the yanks..
Yep, pretty much “I’ll kick down your sandcastle because I hate that it’s better than mine” politics as expected from the right.
Evil bullying pieces of shit.
So all identity politics and culture wars. Not one economic vision, just grievance, grievance, grievance.
You lot are going to try and do a January 6 if you don’t get your way, electorally, aren’t you? I certainly hope Parliament House security will be prepared.
Ven posted
Actually it does matter that the whole female population of Iran are regarded has second class citizens under the mullahs and the Ayatollah. It matters a lot. Tens of thousands of them have been killed for simply demanding equal rights with the male population and as awful as the unintentional bombing of that school was, it does not detract from that fact.
Kirsdarke @ #1526 Saturday, March 7th, 2026 – 11:31 pm
And it’s misdirected envy too. Because they’re kicking down on the smaller sandcastles made by the poor kid who only has a simple shovel and bucket while totally being supportive of the big one made by the rich person who brought in construction equipment and poorly paid workers to build it, as well as already knocked down the poor kids’ sandcastles to steal sand to use for the monstrous sandcastle that hogs the entire beach.
Thank you for your kind thoughts Omar and Soc. Yes, he should have gotten the google taxi (Waymo?)
Between them, David Frum and Tom Nicholls articulate better than I can, what should be the ultimate aim of the Iran conflict and how best to get there(guess what? It involves the Women of Iran achieving the rights the Women of the Western world take for granted):
https://youtu.be/8w7KOoD8sCs?si=g7wop0wchCnOfX-z
Bystander says:
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 12:10 am
Ven posted
It doesn’t matter how bad the mullahs and Ayottolahs are, little girls blood is on Trump’s hands and Republicans because Congress Republicans voted against curbing Trump’s war powers and atrocities.
Actually it does matter that the whole female population of Iran are regarded has second class citizens under the mullahs and the Ayatollah. It matters a lot. Tens of thousands of them have been killed for simply demanding equal rights with the male population and as awful as the unintentional bombing of that school was, it does not detract from that fact.
Absolutely 100%, Bystander. Ven is being selective as to whose shed blood is the most important. ‘Little girls’ blood is more important than any of the blood shed by the ~35000 Iranians that the regime murdered. Which, I can probably say, included ‘little girls’ blood as well among all the rest.
I also imagine that Ven hasn’t read this forensic analysis of the attack on the girls school by ABC Verify, just assumed that was was said about it was true and then riffed on it from there.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-07/verify-satellite-imagery-direct-strikes-around-minab-school/106419210
The fog of war is thick around this incident.
I don’t wish to be too much of an insensitive bastard, but …
Anyone who trusts his or her life and limb to a Tesla self-drive is asking for a Darwin award. I would have serious doubts about getting into a Tesla with a human driver, without several hours of training on how to open those freaking emergency doors, never mind a self-driving death-trap.
These colonial white saviours of Iranian women, could perhaps ask the women of Palestine and Afghanistan how it is going with their ‘help’ from Israel and the USA?
Dont bother WWP. Apparently some people learnt nothing from history other then there’s no limit to how many people need to be bombed so they can feel good…
Cat at 12.35 am
It is a week now since so many young Iranian girls were slaughtered. There was no military necessity in that attack, so it is a war crime under international humanitarian law.
It will go unpunished, because Iran is obviously not part of the International Criminal Court (if it were there would be a case involving the slaughter of many thousands of protestors in early January). Note that neither France nor the UK tried to extend the ICC’s jurisdiction to cover Iran from then.
If the US had any credible excuse, we would have heard about it long before now. They have just stalled.
As for the effects within Iran of Trump’s war, it has added desperate fear to the regime’s repression.
See this report on the BBC coverage:
‘A Tehran resident who had been in touch with the BBC via a relative has described how the reality of war has shifted the mood from political debate to “basic survival”.
“Everyday life becomes about safety, food, communication and protecting family,” he tells BBC Your Voice.
“Political debates that existed before the war fade in importance when people are under attack.”
While some believed that war could see the current regime removed, he says that once “missiles start hitting their streets and homes are destroyed” the “reality is very different”.
“War forces people to confront the human cost,” he adds.
The man continues by saying “uncertainty is one of the hardest parts of this wartime life. When people don’t know what tomorrow will bring, even the most basic daily tasks become extremely difficult.”’
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ceqvwrydzpqt
There is more prospect of regime change in Venezuela than in Iran. That is the terrible reality facing Iranian women now. First, slaughtered by the institutionalised misogyny. Now attacked by Trump etc.
Miskal
As per Hegseth, US bombed 3000 targets.
Catherine Rampell/The Bulwark:
Nick Judin
@nickjudin
Unlike every evil, craven, idiotic decision Trump’s made in office, the Iran War is finally the act he can’t immediately retreat from. Every one of his catastrophic failures (DOGE, liberation day, siege of minneapolis, regime change in venezuela, etc.) he survived by abandoning.
5:52 PM · Mar 7, 2026
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495
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Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is genuinely extraordinary: https://x.com/MicloutT/status/2029441221374992857/video/1
Speaking is General Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
He says that the UK “should not, in any way, shape or form be involved with the Americans because they are being led by a couple of gung-ho nutters like Trump and Hegseth without a proper strategy and without serious thought about what the end state for this war is.”
He goes on: “Yet again we have an American president who has gone to war, a war of choice, a war of hubris frankly, without ANY
clear idea of how the war ends and without any clear strategy.” He predicts that “this thing is going to go south very, very quickly.”
He highlights in particular just how foolish it was to kill Ayatollah Khamenei: “The idea of assassinating the Ayatollah Khamenei who was not just Iran’s head of state but he was the religious symbol for Shiites worldwide. Assassinating him during the month of Ramadan is about as subtle as murdering the Pope on the steps of St Peter’s in Holy Week. It will inflame the Shiite world and what you’re doing by doing that is probably pushing large numbers of Iranians who might have been reconcilable, who might have thought about rising up, back into the fold of the irreconcilable.”
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2029743059861397764?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2029743059861397764%7Ctwgr%5Ef0b40cd1bc28bf967d4202938186a0d06d76e911%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F3%2F7%2F2372056%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Didn-t-think-it-through-The-Karma-gods-take-notice
(watch video)
Antony Green’s blog: who now holds the 13 seats once held by former Liberal Leaders?
In fact just two of the 13 seats are currently held by the Liberal Party.
https://antonygreen.com.au/where-are-they-now-the-fate-of-seats-held-by-former-liberal-leaders/?fbclid=IwY2xjawQZUWZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETEwTExKUUxjVWlnaXlKQjlVc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoIWAfm2ES9YSVHhdQ_tNjSX-9WC1Sabr0EnJzgaMhUNwhiJ2J8O2gi1X2LV_aem_c6M8uS8rYAniH61Z6zGg8Q
New thread.
So says a couple of cynical, opportunistic males. Good to know you support ultra religious males exerting control over the women in their countries. If I’m a ‘white colonialist’ then you two are mediaeval religion supporters. And don’t try and worm out of that responsibility by saying you don’t support the Iranian Mullahs. By your lack of support for the aspirations of Iranian Women, you do.
Guys, you think YOU can decide what Women can and can’t get with your vitriolic and mocking attacks on another woman, well that just proves how sexist and chauvinistic you supposedly most ‘Left’ of us all are. You think that it’s aok for the ultra religious men to be back in charge in Afghanistan & Gaza because you are so quick to snuff out on this blog any aspirations that the women in their countries may have for greater freedoms. They’re not allowed to have them, apparently, according to you two, because the men are back in charge again. And the same goes double for the Women of Iran.
WeWantPaul, I bet you didn’t even notice the 5 books I linked to that have been written by Women in Afghanistan, who are still yearning to be free of the yoke of the mediaeval thugs who rule over them again? Nope, you just saddle up your hobby horse for another day of palling around with your equally blithely dismissive new best bud, Miskal, and ride off, gung ho for shooting fish in a barrel marked ‘Trump’.
And, do you think I don’t realise what an almost equivalent bunch of religious retards the Christian Nationalists in America are? But if their action causes a step change in the conditions under which the Women of Iran can live, despite the minor inconvenience of petrol for your cars costing a bit more for a while, and it won’t be that long anyway because Iran is already retreating on attacking the Gulf States, who can refine their own oil and gas, then it will have all been worth it. Or your food bill increasing-and obviously it won’t affect you two, WeWantPaul and Miskal, because you appear to be wealthy enough not to have to work for a living and so can spend your days here attacking people like me who have hopes for other women around the world that want to fight against the constraints of religious conservatism increasing around the world.
Hmm, let me see, what have you, WeWantPaul, Miskal, Bushfire Bill and Ven, the other major scoffers got in common? Ah, yes, you’re all males who think they know what’s best for women, and in this case it’s, sit down and shut up and stop hoping for a better life. Oh, and sterling job, Ven, spamming the blog overnight with your self-serving articles, that’s exactly what men do, assert their dominance if a woman dares to disagree with their point of view. And you lot think you’re Progressive? You lot don’t know how comfortably conservative you are. Especially you, Ven, hiding behind the deaths of those schoolgirls, maybe, and I bet you still haven’t bothered to read the ABC Verify article, but studiously ignoring the deaths of thousands of other Iranian women and girls who are fighting against the murderous regime they are forced to live under.
Well for your ‘Afghanistan and Palestine’ I have the Suffragettes. And this:
Maybe you could better spend your time today going to a local event and supporting Women, instead of attacking them on this blog? You might come away better people than you are now.
Or, you can stroke each other’s egos and attack me again. Your choice.
Big Gina is also using her connections for Trump donors to back ON.
I’m sure the White House will share with the US people the potential adverse consequences that were identified before striking Iran last week. And the planned responses should they eventuate.
“All quiet. No missiles tonight,” is the text message I never thought I would be getting from one of my kids. She works in the UAE. She is not leaving, but is staying there and doing her job.
I @#$%ing despise drump and that other war criminal.
Eventually, the world will have to come up with a strategy to deal with narcissistic sociopaths. Possibly, a diagnosis will lead to being locked up in a facility, as no treatment will work. That means Human Rights get binned, but the planet cannot sustain the damage these creatures do.
As a woman, I am sick of being used as an excuse for men to go to war and have a jolly good time fighting each other.
We all know Trump and Hegseth don’t give a fly’s butt about the rights and circumstances of the women of Iran. They don’t GAF about any woman’s rights and circumstances.
Women and their kids are always the biggest losers in a war. And they don’t get to go to a local RSL or march on commemorative days to honour the civilian women who didn’t make it. They get no medals or reunions but suffer the same, if not more than, the men.
We were the excuse for Afghanistan, and how did that work out for our sisters?
BK
I would not like to be hanging by my fingernails for that one.
How old is Gina? Australia should introduce a billionaire death tax, on all holdings anywhere in the world. Say, about 75%!
Yeah, I know, and pigs might fly.