Two new Victorian state polls:
• The Financial Review reports a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll showing One Nation, which was not a response option in the last such poll in December, at 24%, with Labor down six to 25%, the Coalition down 12 to 28% and the Greens up one to 13%. Two-party preferred results based on respondent-allocated preferences show the Coalition with a 52-48 lead over Labor and Labor with a 53-47 lead over the Coalition. The poll was conducted February 18 to 27 from a sample of 2165.
• The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 27%, One Nation on 23% and the Greens on 13%. Labor and the Coalition are tied on a two-party preferred measure that I presume is based on respondent-allocated preferences. Jacinta Allan records a minus 33 net approval rating compared with plus 15 for Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who holds a 46% to 30% lead over Allan on preferred premier. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal leadership change in November made them more likely to vote Coalition compared with 14% for less likely and 44% for no difference. Seventy-four per cent registered support for a royal commission into alleged criminal infiltration and corruption within the CFMEU, with only 7% opposed. The poll was conducted February 19 to 23 from a sample of 1030.
Also from Victoria:
• May 2 has been set as the date for the Nepean by-election, arising from the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. A Liberal preselection vote last week was won by Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh. Cameron McCullough of the Mornington Peninsula News reports Marsh won the preselection ballot on the first round with 10 out of 19 votes, against four for former Hastings candidate Briony Camp, three for Frankston mayor and federal Dunkley candidate Nathan Conroy, and two for Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess. The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes Marsh’s how-to-vote card at the 2020 council election directed voters to put the Liberal candidates last. One Nation’s candidate is Darren Hercus, whom the Herald Sun reports is a civil engineer and owner of a Dromana floor and roof truss manufacturing plant. Former Liberal member Peter Angelico will run for the Libertarian Party. Labor will presumably not bother.
• The Australian reports Andrew Lethlean, the Bendigo publican who came close to pulling off an extraordinary feat in winning the federal seat of Bendigo for the Nationals last May, looks assured of being the party’s candidate against Jacinta Allan in Bendigo East.
• Tim Read, who has held Brunswick for the Greens since 2018, has announced he will not contest the November election, having been diagnosed in October with metastatic cancer.
• One of a number of SMS polls published last week by Roy Morgan gauged Victorian state voting intention, and it had One Nation leading the field with 26.5%, with Labor on 25.5%, the Coalition on 21.5% and the Greens on 13%. Three two-party results were provided, putting Labor 52-48 ahead of the Coalition and 52.5-47.5 ahead of One Nation, with the Coalition leading One Nation 56-44. The poll was conducted February 13 to 16 from a sample of 2462.
@Victoria at 8:45pm
Ben Carroll probably. Although his seat of Niddrie is less secure than Allan’s, but, a change in direction might be something that saves Victorian Labor this year.
Going along as is would most likely result in a loss.
Are the Victorian and Queenslander branches the only parts of Labor that are currently in shambles?
@Thomas Brian Mutter
The Tasmanian branch is also in the shambles.
Jacinta Allan is not going anywhere. Labor will not change leaders and risk being similar to the Liberals. And there is no clear successor anyway.
Despite public reports and speculation, she still commands respect.
Relax woketorians.
Kevin or William will produce a 2pp showing labor at 56% 2PP.
Relax.
Have to admit though, Hanson + Libs = 52%
Elephant in the room.
This poll surely has the libs in the lead on 2PP, or more rigging upcoming perhaps.
-40 approval rating speaks for itself.
I am sure she is a good manager and party has been incredibly disciplined. People obviously like working for her, she is probably much easier to work for than Andrews. Even then Mid 20s primary , lagging preferred premier ratings, -40 approval rating, , writing is on the wall.
@Whatgoesaround at 9:33pm
I disagree. Jacinta Allan looks almost identical to John Brumby before he lost the 2010 election.
Not much respect to command from a position of “We’re going to lose.”
Ante Meridian,
Ian Whitchurch does not understand preferences and voting.
Posters like this are best wiped.
They are dumbo’s.
I take back my commentary with pied 3 hours ago.
This is a death poll for Jacinta Allan & Vic Labor.
Good riddance.
I would say the Tasmanian Labor Party party is probably the only branch that can be accurately described as being a shambles right now, and even they still managed to clean up at the last federal election. (I dunno how things are internally the NT branch right now… I suspect not great, but given the usual paucity of polling in the top end, their tiny caucus could be conceivably be looking at anything from losing every seat they have to regaining office in a crushing landslide.)
Victorian Labor are looking increasingly likely to lose government at the state level, yes, but remain surprisingly competetive despite a bunch of scandals and a very unpopular leader, and they continue to do very well federally.
Queensland Labor also punched well above their weight at the last federal election, have held office at the state level for the bulk of the last few decades, and while now in opposition, still have a decent-sized caucus with plenty of talent and wouldn’t need a huge swing to them for Crisafulli to join Borbidge and Newman in the one-termer club.
Both have seen better days and they probably do each need new state leaders, but that’s a far cry from being a “shambles.”
Kirdsarke, since you’re a local: how much of a chance do you reckon One Nation are in the block of NW regional Vic seats held by Labor? (Ballarat x2, Bendigo x2, Ripon, Macedon.) Polling generally has ON doing better in the country than the city, so if that holds up they could be vulnerable.
That block is starting to remind me of Darwin’s northern suburbs. Reliably Labor from 2001, including a one-term Lib government, so they were starting to look like permanent Labor seats – then the bottom suddenly fell out in 2024. Same deal here: all those seats were Lib for the Kennett govt, and only Ripon went back for Baillieu / Napthine. If they all flipped to Lib / Nat, it’d make their job easier in suburban Melbourne, but if they go to One Nation instead, it’s a recipe for a spicy minority parliament.
ARKANSAS:
I don’t know if someone who expects there to be a 100% preference flow between the Coalition and One Nation really wants to be setting a precedent for summarily executing people who don’t understand our electoral system.
Especially given Bernardi’s recent comments about how difficult it apparently is for the average One Nation voter to correctly write a bunch of numbers on a ballot paper!
@Bird of Paradox
Honestly, I don’t know. But my guesses are this.
I think Wendouree is a safe Labor hold, I think Ripon will be flipped to Liberal/National/One Nation, and I think Eureka will be a narrow seat between Labor and Liberal/One Nation.
@Alabama,
Do you say things like this out loud and in public?
How do people react?
Hint: tone it down, just a tad! Bad bot!
@kirskdale
I understand your point about Brumby (also good person).
The campaign machine is more sophisticated, the margins are greater.
Expecting some losses and also expecting to win.
Will stay united. To win.
It’s the end for her, Kirsdarke.
Even Kos Samaras (a Labor operative), couldn’t blemish the numbers. He is ‘labor to his bootstraps’.
Victorian’s have 8 months left of the Allan circus.
Wilson will set up an RC on ‘Victoria’s Big Build’, plus examine $15b of taxpayers wastage. Should be fun, if she has the guts, and could wipe out Labor for another term.
The ‘death poll’ has arrived.
Hopefully my posts won’t keep getting deleted, unless of course posters don’t want to read ‘contra-speak’.
Tick. Tick, tick.
@ALABAMA
Honestly I couldn’t care less if Jacinta Allan gets sacked as leader. She’s had her time to prove herself for the job, has failed, so, make way for someone who can.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 10:22 pm
@ALABAMA
Honestly I couldn’t care less if Jacinta Allan gets sacked as leader. She’s had her time to prove herself for the job, has failed, so, make way for someone who can.
_______________________
You have given up on her.
I don’t blame you.
$15 billion dollars down the drain.
This 15 billion dollar figure was plucked out of thin air by Watson
He still can’t account for it.
This is at the same time, that it has been established that building costs in Victoria comes out cheaper than the rest of the country.
In other words, comparable costs of projects .
The CFMEU leadership were bullies, but they did not lose 15 billion dollars in building costs.
It’s bullshit.
Is Ben Carrol going to be the heir apparent?
The preferred premier/PM measure is so heavily skewed towards incumbency, whenever an incumbent falls behind it’s a certain sign that he or she is doomed. If the party doesn’t do the knifing the voters will.
Ain’t that a fact!
But in Australia “people” are allowed to express that issue and do
“steel trap”political opinions.
That is certainly a possibility unlike some other fantasy stuff being aired here.
A drop in Labor’s primary vote to 25 in the Redbridge poll is bad news because typically Redbridge has been among their best series (hovering around 30 while other series were in the 20s).
And a -40 for Jacinta Allan is just disastrous. I agree with the previous comment here that simply replacing the leader will probably add +5 to Labor’s primary vote because her unpopularity is clearly a significant drag. Labor don’t even need a popular leader; just someone relatively neutral who is neither a drag or a boost, to be a winning position again.
That said, there are some really troubling signs for the Liberals here too, not just their plummeting primary vote in isolation but some context and comparison around that:
For example, compared to the most recent polling at the time of the February 2025 byelections – where the Libs fell about 1% short in Werribee and only scraped through by 800 2CP votes in Prahran (with no Labor candidate even running) – Labor’s primary support has actually increased a little bit from the 22-25 range to the 25-28 range, while the Liberal primary vote has crashed by almost 15% from around 42 to the high 20s.
So basically, Labor are still actually in a slightly better position in March 2026 than they were in February 2025, when they held onto Werribee.
The other worrying sign for the Liberals is that given this is the first series of polling that has shown the ONP surge in Victoria, those voters in inner/middle Melbourne who are still parking their support with the Liberals (most likely moderates who are repelled by ONP) would not yet have factored in a landscape where the Liberals likely can’t form government without ONP support.
If polling, the media narrative, and campaign messaging by Labor (and Greens & Teals) all contributes to a perceived likelihood that the Liberals cannot win enough seats on their own and will need to govern with ONP, then regardless of what Jess Wilson may say about making “deals”, that is going to make moderate/urban Liberal voters rethink their vote if they genuinely believe it risks a government where One Nation have a seat at the table.
The path for Labor to retain government, in my view, is for Jacinta Allan to voluntarily step down and announce that she is retiring in November and won’t recontest her seat (this will differentiate Labor from the leadership spills in the Liberal camp), and to hammer home messaging about a LNP-ONP Coalition being the only realistic path to the Liberals forming government.
This isn’t a normal contest at all though, I’m looking forward to seeing Redbridge’s regional breakdowns, but my assumption is that the path for the LNP has probably moved away from winning those 6-8% metropolitan seats (they won’t win them if there is a threat of an LNP-ONP government) and instead a combination of picking off <6% metro seats + winning double-digit regional/outer seats off ONP preferences.
Glut of polling for Victoria when compared SA, which will have real election in 2 1/2 weeks time.
I don’t understand this
7.1 million vs 1.9million is an explanation. Not being Sydney does not equal “all the same”
Is there a sense of “deja vu” surrounding the next Victorian election?
At the lead up to the last Federal election, the Dan Andrews backlash was to be the undoing of Federal Labor, Victoria would vote to correct excesses of Dan and Labor, the renaissance of the once grand Victorian Liberals would begin.
The Federal election, out of mind , out of sight and the dead wood remnant media have us believing that the Victorian Liberals, having been to the courts and back, have now settled on a leader and are ready to assume their rightful place in Victorian politics, albeit by the shoelaces of Poorleen.
The enormous infrastructure build that Dan conjured will be seen as the “fury of hell”, the contrived spend on the CMFEU was accurate and the lot of the Victorians during Covid was akin to Solzhenitsin’s gulag experience and now everyone will vote for the the Liberals.
Wrong.
The polls indicate that a surge of support for the as yet unnamed ON candidates in Victoria, with a zero platform of policy will result in a coalition between the Liberals and ON after the next Victorian election.
Fanciful!
The biggest challenge facing Labor in Victoria is the retention of the Premier’s seat!
Victorian voters are unlikely to discard the work of “commie” Dan in a hurry.
I suspect we’ll have Labor government in Victoria after the next Victorian state election.
It’s never easy taking over a pub from a successful publican, but Jacinta has made a full glass of it with a good head.
The trilogy that is ON will not be popular with the “shouts” as the election nears.
The plethora of polling for the Victorian Election, with a lot indicating dire problems for Labor, seems to have encouraged the supporters of the Right in PB to emerge from long- term hibernation to broadcast optomistic views about the Liberals’ chances.
But the election is still 9 months away, and to repeat an old adage, don’t count your chickens till they hatch…
I believe Victorian voters are, generally speaking, pretty sanguine about politics. Remember how the Press contantly attacked Andrews, prophesizing certain defeat? And what happened? I won ‘t remind the Liberal supporters on this blog about the results…
I will remind them that the Victorian Liberals have engaged in factional power plays and leadership changes constantly over the past few years and inspite of the Hun and The Age, Victorian voters would have noted this behaviour and marked the Libs down for that repeated pathetic , selfish public behaviour.
A new leader for the Libs is no guarantee for electoral success, and any talk of ” deals “, whether by the Liberals or the “Liberal press”, or brought up by the Labor Party during the campaign, with regard to the ” apparently” resurgent On Nation , will be in the minds of many voters come the day.
Will the idea of Liberal Government in Victoria, possibly with parliamentary support from ON, sit uneasily with voters, particularly the majority urban voters?
Given the shakey, undisclipined and Republican- flavoured politics of ON, even Liberal supporters may be questioning themselves about wanting such a fractious bed- mate in Government…
So, our fellow conservative bloggers on PB need to have a quiet cuppa before going on and on about the demise of Victorian Labor. Given some questionable ingredients possibly going into a Liberal cake in November, that cake may not rise in the oven.
One last comment.
The Liberal press goes on about Allan and a tired, “time to a change” government. But will sanguine Victorian voters believe that message is worthwhile or even risky given the Liberals recent past history and its possible coalition with ON?
The chickens haven’t hatched. Will the heat of the election campaign incubator cook them rather than hatch them?
-12 on primary libs since the stupidity of getting rid of Battin. So a moderate is going to win back the one nation movers from the libs eh!
The lib/nats at state or federal level is unlikely going to get into majority and struggle into minority government with a combined primary vote under 40%, and they will not get into government with a combined primary vote under 30%.
In Jacinta Allan seat, the national party candidate primary vote need to be close to or likely over 40% if not , Labor will retain the seat
For the sake of my poor eyes, may I humbly request that my fellow posters follow the rules of basic online etiquette and press the enter key twice between each paragraph. With a few seconds of extra work, your contributions will become infinitely more readable.
I don’t think Wilson’s ineffectiveness as opposition leader is a result of her being either a moderate or a woman. Hell, I would hesitate to even call her a moderate, given she’s an IPA acolyte who gained the leadership with the assistance of the hard right.
Her main issue is that she is an inexperienced first-term MP in her mid-thirties, and both looks and sounds it.
The “moderate” faction of the Liberal party is only moderate in the same sense as the Liberal Party is liberal. Both are just marketing terms with no connection to political reality.
The polls are mostly irrelevant. The election is 9 months away. People will focus with 2-3 month to go. But the issues are simple – Cost of Living, Immigration, Housing, the $16,000,000,000 corruption of the CFMEU (who Jacinta’s drunk husband worked for), the $1.2 million per hour interest on the state debt (Thanks Dan) and then there is the cover up of the kid on the bike incident. None of these issues does the ALP look good. If LNP lose this…….
@ PJB 453pm.
I’ll ignore those initial points you brought up, courtesy of the Murdoch and Nine Media…..
Your final point, however,about if the LNP (um, the Liberal Party, not the LNP , which doesn’t exist in Victoria……) loses this election.
If they lose, it will be because the voters of Victoria decide this fragmented, faction- riddled Party, becoming more and more MAGAish and desperate to get over the line , even if it means getting together with the extremist ON , is simply not to be entrusted with power.
Thats the point, not how much trash can be dug up in order to divert from the fundamental failings of the Opposition…..
Imagine if this result occurred in Victoria
ALP 39 seats
Green 4 seats
Lib/Nat 22 seats
ON 23 seats
Australia gets its first One Nation led state government and Premier!
Woe to the Woke!
The tin foil bike brigade is back again.
“then there is the cover up of the kid on the bike incident”
What was covered up exactly? Spell it out for the peanut gallery. Was there a crime? What was it? Who committed it? How was it covered up? What evidence do you have as being the fault of Dan Andrews? What evidence do you have that he ordered a cover up, or created it on the spot after the accident? Why did there need to be a cover up?
No-one ever seems to actually accuse Dan Andrews of any specific fault regarding the teenager who decided to ride through a blind alley at high speed, out onto the street without stopping, where he hit the car driven by Dan’s wife, who couldn’t see the teenager due to the bike’s speed and the trees completely blocking all view of the alley to the point you wouldn’t know there was any path there as you turned onto the road.
It’s just vague accusations of a conspiracy between a Labor Party politician who wasn’t in government, and Victoria Police who famously love the Labor Party, to cover up ????? committed by ???? by hiding evidence of ?????
Instead of what actually happened, which is that a teenager was riding recklessly on an alleyway with no visibility to the main road, and instead of stopping at crossings he flew out into the street from that hidden alleyway and collided with a vehicle travelling legally.
Timmy
Lib/nats and one nation both are not going get over 20 seats in Victorian election
If one nation is getting support
One nation likely taking majority of primary votes off the lib/nats
Scott:
I mean, they could. I don’t think they will, but its hardly outside the realms of possibility.
New Poll:
Asha’s point about separating your paragraphs is supported by a bajillion percent of voters.
Take heed, people!
I’ve got an absolutely ironclad prediction, which I’m happy to bet my next paycheck on:
After the election coming up this November, Dan Andrews will no longer be the premier of Victoria.
(That guy really got inside some of your heads, didn’t he?)
__________
Timmy:
If that happened, I’m pretty sure there’d be two Libs willing to back the old enemy in return for being deputy premier. Or six willing to do so without the Greens (although they would still be involved in the upper house, so maybe that would go the way of the potential ALP/Nat coalition in WA in 2008). A one-seat majority involving a party notorious for MPs defecting or being sacked from it would be… somewhat volatile.
Liberal Party civil war deepens as millionaire David Orford funds Pesutto loan challenge
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/victoria-ink/liberal-party-civil-war-deepens-as-millionaire-david-orford-funds-pesutto-loan-challenge/news-story/5cdf70c57f0127229f91978387422a6a?amp
https://sh.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/1rlbbtp/it_is_now_almost_certain_the_victorian_partys/
As terrible as it would be for Victoria, there’s a cynical part of almost hoping their next state government is some ungodly mess of a Lib / Nat / ON Coalition, with all the chaos and defections and scandals that would likely entail. It would probably be a gift to the federal government.
The Deeming farce turning into another Supreme Court trial is a rare bit of good news for state Labor.
I’ll never understand why some people think Carroll would be a better alternative than Allan. Carroll is the sort of candidate you run when everyone knows you’re comprehensively stuffed because no one better wants the job. If replacing Allan with anyone could maybe turn things around, it’d be Gabrielle Williams.
@Ghost Of Whitlam
Listen to the podcast https://bikeboy.com.au/podcast.
Spells out pretty clearly the facts against Dan – but I know corruption is the cornerstone of the left (aka CFMEU) so let’s not investigate we might find the truth – and we know the truth is kryptonite for Socialism.
Paul, he hasn’t been premier since September 2023. He won’t be again.
It’s over.
Let
it
go.
I would just like to express my appreciation of all the posters who know the correct expression is ‘I couldn’t care less’, and not ‘I could care less’.
You know who you are. Thank you.
“As terrible as it would be for Victoria, there’s a cynical part of almost hoping their next state government is some ungodly mess of a Lib / Nat / ON Coalition, with all the chaos and defections and scandals that would likely entail. It would probably be a gift to the federal government.”
Australia took 3 elections to get rid of the Fed coalition despite non-stop corruption, scandals and incompetence. All the while doing things like Robodebt.
I’ll take the worst Labor/Green government over any electoral win for the axis of evil, especially one that involves Hanson’s racist fascists.
Paul James Baker, if it “spells out the facts” then you shouldn’t have any trouble repeating them to answer my questions.
What crime are you accusing Dan Andrews of committing and/or covering up? Do you have any evidence he orchestrated this supposed cover up? While he was a member of the opposition no less.
You made the claims, you should answer for them.