Two new Victorian state polls:
• The Financial Review reports a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll showing One Nation, which was not a response option in the last such poll in December, at 24%, with Labor down six to 25%, the Coalition down 12 to 28% and the Greens up one to 13%. Two-party preferred results based on respondent-allocated preferences show the Coalition with a 52-48 lead over Labor and Labor with a 53-47 lead over the Coalition. The poll was conducted February 18 to 27 from a sample of 2165.
• The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 27%, One Nation on 23% and the Greens on 13%. Labor and the Coalition are tied on a two-party preferred measure that I presume is based on respondent-allocated preferences. Jacinta Allan records a minus 33 net approval rating compared with plus 15 for Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who holds a 46% to 30% lead over Allan on preferred premier. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal leadership change in November made them more likely to vote Coalition compared with 14% for less likely and 44% for no difference. Seventy-four per cent registered support for a royal commission into alleged criminal infiltration and corruption within the CFMEU, with only 7% opposed. The poll was conducted February 19 to 23 from a sample of 1030.
Also from Victoria:
• May 2 has been set as the date for the Nepean by-election, arising from the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. A Liberal preselection vote last week was won by Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh. Cameron McCullough of the Mornington Peninsula News reports Marsh won the preselection ballot on the first round with 10 out of 19 votes, against four for former Hastings candidate Briony Camp, three for Frankston mayor and federal Dunkley candidate Nathan Conroy, and two for Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess. The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes Marsh’s how-to-vote card at the 2020 council election directed voters to put the Liberal candidates last. One Nation’s candidate is Darren Hercus, whom the Herald Sun reports is a civil engineer and owner of a Dromana floor and roof truss manufacturing plant. Former Liberal member Peter Angelico will run for the Libertarian Party. Labor will presumably not bother.
• The Australian reports Andrew Lethlean, the Bendigo publican who came close to pulling off an extraordinary feat in winning the federal seat of Bendigo for the Nationals last May, looks assured of being the party’s candidate against Jacinta Allan in Bendigo East.
• Tim Read, who has held Brunswick for the Greens since 2018, has announced he will not contest the November election, having been diagnosed in October with metastatic cancer.
• One of a number of SMS polls published last week by Roy Morgan gauged Victorian state voting intention, and it had One Nation leading the field with 26.5%, with Labor on 25.5%, the Coalition on 21.5% and the Greens on 13%. Three two-party results were provided, putting Labor 52-48 ahead of the Coalition and 52.5-47.5 ahead of One Nation, with the Coalition leading One Nation 56-44. The poll was conducted February 13 to 16 from a sample of 2462.
Stunning poll result to put it mildly. Ridiculous is another word another word coming to mind.
It’s interesting how Freshwater Strategy is giving the benefit of the doubt to Labor for once.
So much dislike for Jacinta and yet the public still can’t seem to bring themselves to vote Liberal. What’s the message here? Would Labor do better with a different leader or Liberals do better with a different message?
And yet the 2PP in almost all of these polls has the ALP ahead. You wouldn’t know it from the reporting.
Jacinta Allan is all sorts of trouble and will no doubt be considering her future, but I suggest the old sunlight disinfectant will force people to face reality eventually. One Nation in particular are unable or unwilling to vet their candidates. The Libs issue is those doing the vetting are Old Balding White (misogynist) Men with a conservative religious bent. The people doing the vetting are complete out of touch.
One Nation and the LNP are an unelectable rabble in this state and beyond. A significant portion of Liberals, actual Liberals, won’t be able to preference One Nation, and vice versa.
The polls are useless unless they actually ask respondents for their allocation of preferences. Without that they are just noise.
At the risk of offending the sensibilities of some pollsters it is verging on “push polling” in the broader sense. The pollsters and their sponsors are trying to create a narrative. The narrative is one of crisis.
(Yes, I know push polling has a very distinct narrow meaning, but the world has moved on!)
If Allan was to be replaced, Labor would probably romp it in on these numbers. She is just so unpopular that I think Labor would add 5% to their primary with a new leader.
Labor can also hammer the Liberals on whether they are going to be willing to o a deal with One Nation if One Nation wins a seat in SA.
I still believe the gentleman that will stand in Jacinta Allan’s seat, Can beat her this time
@Victoria – the likelihood Allan will lose her own seat ought to be factored into decision making. Ironically her best chance at keeping it is probably to not be leader anymore.
Arky
Agreed
I daresay she is mulling things over
I am calling complete bs on the 2PP here. With One Nation and the Coalition on a combined 50% and a 9% others made up primarily of conservative parties like Family first, Freedom and DLP I would have Coalition ahead something like 53-55 to Labor 45-47. You can’t seriously tell me Labor and Greens on 41% are picking up 12% more when they only really have Animal Justice and Socialists left which barely accounts for 3%. This delusional idea a large number of Lib and ON voters will be putting the other last over Labor is laughable.
@Dave
That’s what the polls are saying. Roughly 30-40% of Liberal voters intend to preference Labor over One Nation.
Former right-wing Liberal voters will just put One Nation first anyway.
These results indicate that the upper house will look like a zoo. With a quota of 16.6 percent no party will have anything close to a workable minority.
@Jacabin
I’ll be very disappointed if Group Ticket Voting is not abolished by the next election. Not looking like a good prospect if we have to spin the Glenn Druery roulette wheel once again for 2026-2030.
Dave:
Well, none of us really know how preferences will go in these unprecedented times, but it seems plausible to me that – even if they come to some sort of arrangement – a fair few Liberal and One Nation preferences could go Labor’s way, for the following reasons:
1) Those still sticking with the Liberals would be more inclined to be opposed to One Nation, and generally the sort of establishment conservatives likely to support the devil they know (predictable, centrist Labor) over the wild cards promising to burn the joint down.
2) The current surge to One Nation doesn’t just consist of former rusted-on Libs and Nats who want a more right-wing alternative. Along with a minority who were formerly Labor supporters, I suspect there are also a bunch of lower income Australians who formerly voted Liberal or Nationals but have finally learned that those parties don’t give a shit about the poor, as well as “pox on both houses”-type protest voters, none of which I can see being hugely reliable sources of preferences for the Coalition.
In any case, I guess we will have a better idea one way or the other when SA goes to the polls in a few weeks.
It is outrageous that Group Ticket Voting still exists in Victoria. A simple bill could remove that blight on democracy from their electoral system.
Herald sun now….
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fvictorian-coalition-rules-out-one-nation-deal-despite-minor-partys-polling-surge%2Fnews-story%2F58fd91c5530d6baefb8629234e0b3c62&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-1-SCORE
Losers -libs need to do a preference deal.
Ha! After decades of “WILL LABOR DO A DEAL WITH THE EVIL GREENS” now the shoe is on the other, racist foot.
Here’s a thought, who would even be the Opposition Leader if One Nation wins the most seats other than Labor?
Or do they expect Pauline to sit in the public gallery and tell whatever puppet they put up as parliamentary leader to do as she says?
Dave @ 12.33pm
Exactly. The 2pp calculations going on are bs.
Take yesterdays morgan poll.
Combined right = 47%
Combined left = 42%.
Yet when morgan, WB, and K BONHAM calculate the 2pp, somehow they reckon labor is at 55% 2pp or so.
What, of the remaining 11% indy vote, the fantasy figure of 13% transfers to labor. Complete mathematical bullshit.
And what, the tories who have left the libs for hanson, are now suddenly go and preference labor over libs.
Complete rigged bullshit.
One Nation preferences leak to Labor more than Greens preferences do the Coalition — certainly historically, and polling on how respondents intend to allocate their preferences provides no indication that this has changed.
Exactly my point.
Libs are down about 10% since the last election, and hanson is up.
The clear inference – conservative libs are fleeing the ‘woke/moderate’ lib party, and parking with hanson.
Yet, pollsters are bogged down using last election preferences.
These voters moving from lib to hanson, are not suddenly going to preference labor over the libs. BS to imagine this.
The liberal party has been overrun with climate change loonies – ‘the sky is falling crowd’.
That mob are still leaking against the libs.
Look at the lib review drivvel. It’s been leaked by one of the ‘moderates’.
The enemy.
That’s a more than reasonable hypothesis, but if you read to the end of my post on Morgan, you’ll see that it isn’t what respondents are telling pollsters: RedBridge had the Coalition getting 72% of One Nation preferences, which was worse than they did at the election, and none of the pollsters doing respondent-allocated TPP are finding the Coalition doing particularly better on that measure than on previous election preferences, for which I don’t consider “they’re all rigged” a compelling explanation.
Now, it’s entirely possible that we could be seeing some sort of social desirability/shy tory effect playing out here in a very subtle way. We’ll have a much clearer idea about this after the South Australian election. However, I had a similar hypothesis going in 2010 when the Greens vote was temporarily engorged by Labor voters disaffected by the coup against Rudd, but Labor actually ended up getting their weakest Greens preference flow ever. Time will tell.
ALABAMA:
They get those results from using the preference flows from the previous election, which is standard practice for most pollsters besides Morgan.
Now, there is possibly a valid argument to be made that the size of the swing to One Nation means that previous election preferences are not as accurate a measure as in a business-as-usual election and that maybe respondant allocated preferences should be used instead (personally, I’d favour some kind of average between the two), but there’s no “rigging” going on, you absolute nitwit. Both previous election preferences and the respondent allocated ones from recent polling show reasonable leakage from One Nation to Labor.
In the absense of data from an actual election, I’m not sure how else you expect people like William and Kevin (who, I might add, know a hell of a lot more about this sort of stuff than we do) to measure this sort of thing.
Thankyou.
Yes, you are right. The south australian election plus Farrer should provide a clearer indication of preference flows, especially in the rural/regional areas.
I do read the ‘new thread’ intro posts of yours when i have time, and kevin and antony green too. I suspect the three of you are all left wingers, but you all tend to play a straight bat.
At the least, your intro posts aren’t all about Ukraine, gaza and Trump.
Yes, yes, it’s all a big conspiracy.
One thing elections past, voters have not told the truth to pollsters about voting intentions for fear of being called racist.ESP face to face polling.
So is one nation vote more than it is in the polls?
You’re a nitwit Asha.
Last weeks morgan poll, had the loon figure of 11% indi, with the ALP picking up all of that on preferences, plus 2 more points from thin air.
Buy yourself a calculator.
Nitwit
When was the last time a majaor pollster did face-to-face polling?
Pied, is Allan outski’s, or will she hang on.
Look’s like Victorian taxpayers love paying for bikey gangs and hookers on construction sites.
Same old labor.
Sick Victorian’s.
ALABAMA:
No, you twit, their TPP figure also drew from a minority of One Nation preferences, as has happened in every previous election where One Nation has run.
One Nation voters traditionally arn’t as anti-Labor as you may think. Many are on lower incomes, and some – in contrast to geniuses like you – actually have enough braincells remaining to not vote (or preference) against their own financial interest.
Also, does it not strike you as possible that someone who thinks the Liberals are all “woke climate change cultists” or similar nonsense would therefore not see much difference between the Liberals or Labor and therefore not put much thought into who is preferenced first?
ALABAMAsays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 5:20 pm
Dave @ 12.33pm
Exactly. The 2pp calculations going on are bs.
Take yesterdays morgan poll.
Combined right = 47%
Combined left = 42%.
Yet when morgan, WB, and K BONHAM calculate the 2pp, somehow they reckon labor is at 55% 2pp or so.
What, of the remaining 11% indy vote, the fantasy figure of 13% transfers to labor. Complete mathematical bullshit.
And what, the tories who have left the libs for hanson, are now suddenly go and preference labor over libs.
Complete rigged bullshit.
—————————————————————-
ON preferences have always leaked like a sieve. Guessing you’ve never followed politics. Alot of reasons why people vote ON, hence they can leak.
Given ON has sucked up the right win IND/Other vote it’s not too hard to tell that much of those preferences will head left. Greens preference Labor at 90% v LNP and 95 % v ON.
Using RW 47 %/LW 42% is simple thinking in the highest. Labor will get most of IND/Other and all the Green vote near enough. 30% of ON/LNP vote will leak.
Respondent-based preferences flows in polls are always been inaccurate. Never works that way at an election. Never has. Hence why Newspoll use last election preferences. Newspoll went down the respondent-based flow once, turned out horrible and never did it again.
Allan gifted a liberal
own goal by getting rid of Battin.
Victorians are used to labor selling out to unions, the 22 out of last 26 years in opposition libs cannot sell themselves except for being labor lite.
So people just vote for what they know.Look at the one nation vote total it screams at not being libs enough!
Jim L.
You are a dum dum.
“Given Hanson has sucked up the minor right”, apparently you believe it’s all going to head left after preferences.
Like magic?
You’re another labor looney wishcaster Jim L, or should it be Jim Z.
Thanks pied.
Sounds like Victorians want higher taxes to pay for money on bikies. You can always tell a Victorian, but you can never tell them anything. Fuck em.
Battin was good. The new leader look’s like some silly schoolgirl straight out of PLC. (Presbyterian Ladies College).
Oh well, 4 more years of Vic Labor may help to lose a swag of seats when it’s Albo’s turn.
Gotta remain positive. Always a silver lining there.
Ha ha.
Alabama,
” apparently you believe it’s all going to head left after preferences.”
No, those of us who have been around for a while believe it’s going to exhaust.
Cookers who distrust the Liberal Party will get their disgust out of their system, and not number every box.
Their vote will then exhaust, heading nowhere.
This may, for example, result in the Liberal Party not winning a seat on preferences over a community independent and/or the ALP.
An issue with Australian politics is people who mistake the world they want to see for the world that is.
I’M LEAVING THE WOKE LIBS FOR POORLEEN! ALSO I’M VOTING WOKE LIBS #2!
A person leaving a party isn’t automatically going to give their preference to the party they left. If they loved that party so much they wouldn’t have left it. It’s not like you’ve got people leaving the Fraser Anning Nat-C Party for One Nation because One Nation is “electable”, so them going 1 ON, 2 NTC 100% of the time makes sense.
If ON causes the LNP to lose 3 out of 10 preferences to Labor, if you get 30 votes, 10 each, you get Labor 13 – LNP 17
If Labor got 14 votes, LNP 9, ON 7, that turns into Labor 16, LNP 14.
This stuff matters a lot, and claiming things are “rigged” because you don’t like the outcome is just sour grapes that ON aren’t going to swallow the LNP voting electorate whole.
Ian:
The only place votes can still exhaust in the lower house are in NSW state elections and various local government elections. Everywhere else now has full preferential voting. (Actually, NT may still have it too, I can’t quite remember.)
Compulsory (number all the boxes) preferential voting in Victoria
Jim’s point, obvious to everyone with an IQ above room temperature, is that with most of the right-wing minor party vote looking as though it is being hoovered up by One Nation, the remainder of independent / “other” voters are probably going to be either left-leaning or centrists and therefore more likely to preference Labor over One Nation.
Asha,
And if not all boxes are numbered then the vote become informal and exhausts, right ?
In 2022 results there are around 7% right wing minor party vote. Surely One Nation has hoovered those up in polling. Remaining pool of other/Independents may indeed become more centrist/left leaning as a result.
Freshwater poll looks like ALP might hold on, though there is a redbridge that shows it is likely to lose.
Jacinta Allen needs to go IMO, she is toxic. There is still time for orderly transition. I don’t see government surviving with her.
Latest Redbridge poll
https://www.afr.com/politics/labor-and-liberal-support-crashes-in-victoria-hanson-is-the-winner-20260304-p5o7e2
If a ballot paper does not have all boxes numbered it is simply informal. Full stop. It won’t count towards the result, even if the first preference is for one of the highest two candidates. There is no ‘exhaustion’.
At least, that’s according to the VEC’s website. Unless there are savings provisions they don’t publish.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/how-voting-works/preferential-voting
Like Asha above, I’m cynical about assumptions that the One Nation vote will necessarily just flow straight to the Coalition.
I like to keep an eye on a variety of online spaces to make sure I’m not getting my info in a bubble, and the amount of very much non-usual=suspects saying that they’re interested in voting for One Nation because of white-hot anger about migration, what they view as the impact of migration on the cost of living, and disdain for establishment politicians is scary.
Many of these people also have much the same view of Dutton and friends as most people on this site.
RedBridge Poll – VIC state:
2PP = ALP 48 (-2) LNP 52 (+2)
2PP = ALP 53 ON 47
PV = ALP 25 (-6) LNP 28 (-12) ON 24 (+24) GRN 13 (+1) OTH 10 (-7)
RedBridge Poll – VIC state:
2PP = ALP 48 (-2) LNP 52 (+2)
2PP = ALP 53 ON 47
PV = ALP 25 (-6) LNP 28 (-12) ON 24 (+24) GRN 13 (+1) OTH 10 (-7)
Likely LNP / One Nation Coalition with right wing control of upper house.
Ian:
No, it becomes informal and isn’t counted.
Votes only exhaust in optional preferential voting. You have to number every box in compulsory preferential system.
Ugh, yeah, Jacinta Allan’s making no progress. She’s as popular as Keir Starmer. The best thing she can do is retire peacefully. She’s had 2 years to make herself popular and she’s failed.
Remember, if you ever meet anyone who believes Australia’s immigration level is too high, it’s vitally important not to engage in any intelligent informed debate. Just accuse him or her of being a racist and declare that you win.
Keep doing that for a few decades and nothing could possibly go wrong.
Kirsdarke
Who are you thinking to take over the leadership