The Australian reports the first Newspoll since the Liberal leadership change shows little change on voting intention, with Labor down a point to 32%, One Nation steady on 27%, the Coalition up two to 20% and the Greens down one to 11%. Angus Taylor nonetheless records personal ratings markedly better than Sussan Ley’s at the last, with 35% approval and 38% disapproval, as compared with Ley’s 23% and 62%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 55%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is 45-37, compared with 49-30 against Ley in the previous poll. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1237.
The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll with Labor down two points on a month ago to 32%, One Nation up two to 28% and the Coalition unchanged on 19%. Going off respondent-allocated preferences, Labor holds two-party leads of 54-46 lead over One Nation and 53-47 over the Coalition. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese on 34%, Pauline Hanson on 23% and Angus Taylor on 10%. Net favourability ratings are provided of minus 13 for Albanese (down three), minus one for Taylor (up three), and minus two for Pauline Hanson (up one). Further clarity can be expected on these points when the print edition is published or the pollster’s own report becomes available. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.
UPDATE: The RedBridge/Accent poll has Anthony Albanese down two on approval (combined very and mostly favourable) to 32% and up one on disapproval (very and mostly unfavourable) to 45%. Angus Taylor is at 19% and 20%, respectively up six and up three on the previous poll, conducted before he became leader, while Pauline Hanson is up one to 38% and down one to 40%. Further net ratings are provided for Jane Hume, Tim Wilson and Larissa Waters, all of whom are at minus three from low recognition, and minus 13 for the somewhat better known David Littleproud and minus 17 for the still better known Barnaby Joyce. Also featured are highly useful and interesting figures on respondent-allocated preferences broken down by party support, which I believe will be published overnight.
Thank God world peace broke out 5 minutes ago.
Kevin Bonham: My 2PP estimate for this poll 54.1 to ALP (-1.9)
ALP vs ON 53.1 to ALP (-1.3)
I’m sorry, but I just cannot see PHON getting that high a vote on election day.
From previous thread:
B. S. Fairman:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 7:16 pm
‘Mavis – Too often people complain about politicians owning investment properties but it is about the only class of investment that doesn’t create a conflict of interest. They can’t buy shares in companies which is the other major place where they could invest. They can’t hardly run a business. Some get away with owning a farm or something like that but there is not many options but property investment for most of them.’
While not a conflict of interest, where a pollie owns two negatively geared properties and intends to increase the number to three or more, she/he has a vested interest in the outcome of legislation that would limit their purchase to two.
Confessions: The SA election is 20 days away and we will see how the polls compare to the votes. ON currently averaging 23%.
HH:
yes, that is the first test of their polling support.
Tracking towards a Labor leadership showdown at the end of the year.
House hoarding should be actively discouraged by the tax system. We need to treat housing as a basic resource that everyone needs. Housing should be a human right that the federal government has a proactive duty to secure for all people.
Fess
Hope PHON don’t but understandable when the choice is between well done Angus and Albanese.
Confessions says:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 7:37 pm
HH:
yes, that is the first test of their polling support.
———————–
I do not think so as it is too soon since their rise. They will not have enough time to get organised and lots of candidates that will need vetting. Plus they need lots of money, something they will not have compared to labor and liberals who are loaded with money and support.
Victorian election will be a better litmus test.
27% is still a shockingly high primary vote for One Nation. It looks like not only changing the leader from Sussan Ley to Angus Taylor not only did nothing in terms of the Liberals’ own numbers, but they also embarassed themselves in the process as far as moderate centrist voters are concerned (it’s not like they already lost that voter base in 2025 but still it entrenched them in the middle of the conservative side of politics which in Australia it is an unelectable position to be in).
The mainstream media has no excuse now to not strongly pursue the details of One Nation’s ideals and policies. It shouldn’t be too difficult a task!
Phon at 27% isn’t that surprising to me, given how dreadful the coalition has been, but if 80% of the not coalition goes to phon a 40%+ TPP to PHON is a little horrifying.
Rex:
Want to put some money on that one?
Its all about cost of living, none of the performative culture warring that people get excited about in certain parts of the media.
Whatever is being planned for Budget sounds fine, but won’t be enough without some firm commitment or action plan to reduce migration:
– Super taxes? In the works, likely to be done before the end of the week.
– Capital Gains Tax discount reduction for housing? Fine, even the business community is vocally for it.
– Negative Gearing cap? Ineffectual without a migration cut. All the hand waving people did about the mid-1980s NG cut to rent spike (“It was localized around tight housing markets in Perth/Sydney”) is now national and there remains significant upward pressure on rents.
I doubt there will be major income tax cuts this budget (probably the next one or early 2028); but polling for Labor won’t materially improve until it can show that it can bring forward a race-neutral migration plan and give people something real as an ON alternative.
Jolly:
Oh, I wouldn’t worry about that, One Nation don’t usually concern themselves with silly things like vetting candidates.
Thomas Brian Mutter
It’s not surprising, people supporting PHON seem to be looking for a more conservative party and they don’t see the Liberal Party as conservative, the Liberal Party would be better off embracing liberalism and leaving conservatism to PHON.
UK Opinium poll (taken 25-27 February so mostly before the result of the by-election was known, compared with the last one taken on 4-6 February)
Reform: 30% (-1)
Labour: 18% (-5)
Conservative: 18% (+2)
Green: 13% (=)
Lib Dems: 12% (+2)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Others: 6% (+3)
Over a quarter of a million home batteries have now been installed under the Cheaper Home Batteries program.
Bowen has taken Bludger’s advice:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-wetherill-park-nsw
So put together with the by-election, a lot of reform vote is coming from the conservaties, but by no means all.
The greens must be picking up disproportionatly in Labor areas and labor must be holding in conservative strong electorates.
Would be great to see a conservative strong seat by-election., and a strong lib dem seat by-election as well.
@Confessions 1 opinion poll that is more than 2 years out from an election is not suppose to predict the results of that election. It’s only meant to be a snapshot into what the public sentiment is about the political parties as of now.
There has now been a tanker attack in the Straits of Hormuz. “Skylight” registered in Palau. 4 injured. All crew evacuated (15 Indians and 5 Iranians). – Oman Maritime Security Centre.
HH
A key point here is that the ON 2pp is now better than the Liberal 2pp. This is a change from previous. Policy-less rabble or not, ON is now a serious threat.
Clive Lewis, one of the better British Labour MPS has just described Keir Starmer as a ‘temporary PM.” Maybe something is in play. He has explained just how damaging selling out Labour’s base has been and how empty the Starmer regime is.
The above speech is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhSjN22IBV4
Oh yeah, Opinium did leadership approval and preferred PM as well.
Keir Starmer (Labour): 15% Approve, 64% Disapprove
Kemi Badenoch (Conservative): 27% Approve, 35% Disapprove
Ed Davey (Lib Dem): 21% Approve, 26% Disapprove
Nigel Farage (Reform): 31% Approve, 44% Disapprove
Zack Polanski (Green): 22% Approve, 29% Disapprove
Preferred PM:
Starmer 20%, Badenoch 22%
Starmer 25%, Farage 29%
-49% for Keir Starmer? No wonder why the Labour party is currently in shambles.
Little bit surprising Starmer is doing that well.
SL
——————————————————
Good to see. It is absolutely true. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz only adds to the list of reasons why electrifying our transport system makes us more secure.
I hope the Iranians dancing in the streets enjoy today. There won’t be many more good days like it.
I remember when there was also dancing in the streets of Baghdad on Day #1. I swallowed the myth that a good opening might mean a good ending.
This “war” is built on lies and deception. It’s at least partially to distract from very serious evidence against Trump and others of his cabinet and supporter ranks of child rape, sex trafficking, major theft, bribery blackmail and fraud .
It’s only Day #1 in Iran. Hitler had many good Day #1s too. For example, Stalingrad was a stunning success. The Wermacht’s 6th Army got to the Don inside a few days. They got no further, and were eventually wiped out, almost totally. And that was boots on the ground, not Navy jockstraps flying jets at 50,000 feet.
Nobody can predict with any degree of certainty where it all goes from here. You just don’t turn around a nation of 90 million people in a few days, after four decades of religious rule. Not everyone in Iran craves the reintroduction of Western Values. And at the moment it’s the baddies who own the guns, the torture chambers, the gibbets… and the internet.
Lastly, let us not forget: the whole show on the American side is being run by Reality TV morons, Breakfast Show second stringers, and Florida real estate spivs, none of whom can see past the next gazump.
Being happy for the Iranians will not help them one bit. It might make us here in Australia feel good for a couple’a days. But it’ll do nothing towards getting rid of the mullahs if they don’t want to get got.
Socrates: Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 8:02 pm:
Socrates, here’s the Australian media’s chance to show us all they can be a proper fourth estate, and do what BK suggests above (and what C@tmomma has been urging for a while now):
BK, Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 7:46 pm:
The ON vote will be high in all elections where they seen as no chance of winning. I wouldn’t be shocked if the ON vote is as high as 30% in the SA election because Labor have it all wrapped up. Completely different in Vic later this year when ON could get in power.
B.S.Fairman
Thanks for your reporting of the Australian women’s cricket team’s fine innings today. I feel sorry for anyone who excles in their field today. The world will hardly notice.
Conversely there has never been a better time to release an embarrassing report than about now. Mission accomplished for Trump?
HH
A key point here is that the ON 2pp is now better than the Liberal 2pp.
This is by no means certain or even close to reliable. Kevin is doing his own calculations without having access to raw polling data. Maybe pollsters who think 2pp is not appropriate for THEIR polling should be listened to.
Those polls that are publishing 2pp for both are not finding what Kevin is finding. With the greatest of respect he’s a blogger not an oracle
Joyce’s persona of being a country yokel appears to be working. He’ll probably stand again in New England as a One Nation candidate, assuming the leadership when Hanson bows out. PHON’s ever-increasing PV is probably a salvo across the Liberal Party’s bow to encourage it to move further to the right, but if it did, moderate Liberals would likely jump ship. Sky News will be popping the champagne tonight.
We will see how ON vote holds up when there are alternative parties to choose from in front of voters. How many votes they will lose out to when there are Shooters, Family first, libertarians, UAP etc on the ballot paper?
New poll in the afr website
Pauline up 2, labor down 2,
Go PHON.
Angus big fail.
One Nation will overtake Labor by Easter.
Fuck Labor.
AFR Redbridge federal poll
TPP: ALP 54 ON 46 (respondent allocated)
TPP: ALP 53 L/NP 47 (respondent allocated)
TPP: ALP 54 L/NP 46 (prefs allocated as last election)
Primary: ALP 32 (-2) L/NP 19 (0) ON 28 (+2) GRN 12 (+1) OTH 9 (-1)
The first article has the best chart graphic
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/will-the-hanson-juggernaut-come-for-labor-20260227-p5o5yw
archive version https://archive.is/PeqCm
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-going-nowhere-as-one-nation-nips-at-labor-s-heels-20260227-p5o5yv
archive version https://archive.is/Odw4L
Socrates – I must say I am watching the Matildas instead of the cricket this evening.
Insightful comment there, Alabama.
Deep.
“I’m sorry, but I just cannot see PHON getting that high a vote on election day.”
There’s going to be a test this week when Labor attempt to censure Hanson for her anti Muslim comments and it will get more into the news cycle and people will be less ignorant about the exact nature of what they’re backing (I think Bludgers often greatly overestimate the political memory of the average voter, and underestimate how much stuff slips through to the keeper if it is not repeated and repeated and repeated).
The budget is the big moment though, both because it is when Labor stops gliding through the early part of the year and ramps up activity, and when the pressure goes onto the alternatives to say what they’d actually do differently or to back the government’s plans, neither of which is something Hanson would want to really do.
I don’t think there’s too much change in positions on the way before then barring megadisaster for someone.
Kos Samaras on facebook talking about the Redbridge poll
https://www.facebook.com/kosmos.samaras/posts/pfbid0WSTiGyxFCiJWGBMEoFTigSg4uAmZTJ5zywTftZtu2NSaRiauT3Hx9GwmAP51E3yXl
Kos Samaras
Tonight’s AFR/RedBridge Accent poll:
Labor 54% 2PP vs One Nation Nationally, 60% 2PP in Capital cities vs One Nation. One Nation at 53% 2PP in regional and rural Australia. Yes, in a country that is highly urbanised, that matters. A lot.
Labor dominates the capital cities. 60/40 on 2PP. Hanson owns everything else.
Albanese is the most hated political figure amongst One Nation voters. Hanson is the most hated political figure amongst Labor and other left voters.
One Nation voters rate Albanese at -83. Labor voters rate Hanson at -55. So One Nation’s ability to eat into the progressive block is extremely limited. This is clearly now a Right on Right contest, where One Nation attempts to replace the Coalition as he main Right wing party. It appears One Nation is succeeding.
And the Coalition? Third. At 19%. Behind both. Across every single demographic. One Nation has basically replaced it as the major party for conservative Baby Boomers, the regions and practically every other key group that held up the Coalition in the past.
Angus Taylor told Fairfax he’s open to a deal with One Nation. When you’re at 19 and One Nation at 28, you’re not making an offer. You’re submitting a résumé. That submission will also lock in Labor’s advantage in the big cities as they will capitalise on this, along with the Teals.
Link to further analysis via the Financial Review in the comments section.
Newy boy / BK
Precisely. Take this weekend’s events. Can you imagine Pauline Hanson or any ON politician formulating a coherent policy on Australia’s position vis a vis Iran, Israel and USA and then explaining it credibly to the nation and world? It would be a farce.
What would a ON government do on the defense budget? AUKUS? Negotiating a free trade agreement? With what they have said about protectionism and migration, would they end up stranding Australia in a trade war? Probably.
Redbridge/AFR has a new poll:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/will-the-hanson-juggernaut-come-for-labor-20260227-p5o5yw?fbclid=IwdGRjcAQQ4p1leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA8xNzM4NDc2NDI2NzAzNzAAAR6uYH_Bva95K1n4etkcfWT1czFW7cJJw49cy5nh_OMOyAn_jKcmrZ1fszze8w_aem_q04y2DvV7heeCk4ntpuiqw
Labor is 54/46 ahead of either LNP or ON on a national 2PP.
On his Facebook page Kos does a deep dive on the urban vs rural vote.
Labor is 60/40 ahead of ON in the cities, whereas outside the city limits On leads by 53/47. This matters in a highly urbanised country like Australia. Primaries are 32 (ALP), 28 (ON), 19 (LNP) and 12 (Greens). The LNP are third in every age demographic except amongst zoomers (where it is fourth on 11%).
Edited: oh snap, Leroy!
Labor is currently running on not being Liberal or One Nation, a tactic that works riiiight up to the point that the current economic situation makes it fail completely (ie, 2024 US). If rates go up one more time, and Albo continues to camapign on nothing more then slight edits to the existing economic system (especially housing), then all ONP needs to say is “vote for us and we will fix housing, trust us” and Labor will plummet.
Hopefully Charmers will get his way, because if he doesnt then theres a very real chance Hanson will be running the country (and I doubt the Senate will hold).
Redbridge poll in AFR…
Talking about stuff that slips through to the keeper:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-01/extreme-rhetoric-australia-right-wing-circles-deserves-attention/106395138
The biggest problem with using South Australia as a test case of One Nation support is the fact that only 1/5th of the seats in the House of Assembly are actually regional seats (South Australia is the 2nd most urbanised state in Australia). Not only that, but with so many prominent high-profile independents it’s going to be tough for the party to break through in a lot of the few regional electorates that exist. My best guess is that they’ll probably pick up 3 seats in the House of Assembly with most of those seats being along the Murray River.
Jeepers, the Coalition is moribund
NewsPoll – 20
Redbridge – 19
With OneNation unproven at any level, this could be a generation of Labor governments ahead of us.