Live Commentary
4:09pm Regarding Reform’s performance, this seat was a very left-wing seat. If Reform gains 15% nationally at the next election, they are likely to win a large number of seats. Even if you take away the 6% drop for the Conservatives, it’s still an overall swing to the right of 9%. The Workers Party didn’t stand at the by-election after getting 10.3% at the 2024 election in this seat, so left-wing parties were overall about 8% below their 2024 result.
3:39pm The Greens have GAINED Gorton and Denton from Labour, beating Reform by 12 points with Labour a further 3.3 points behind in third.
2:44pm The podium for the results announcement has been set up.
1:56pm The BBC reports a Greens source says they are very confident of a win.
1:17pm As a general comment on UK elections, it would be FAR better to have vote counting from booths reported publicly, which would usually give us a result in the first two hours after polls close. Instead all we have are party sources until the result is officially declared.
12:50pm A Reform source is claiming that Labour will come third.
12:38pm The BBC reports Labour sources say it’s been a good night for the Greens, turning out support in a way they wouldn’t be able to replicate at a general election according to these sources. Turnout for the by-election is 47.6%, which is actually UP 0.8% on the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election.
11:30am The BBC says a result is expected between 3am and 4am UK time (2pm to 3pm AEDT).
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 9am AEDT today for the parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%. I previously related that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from running as Labour’s candidate for this by-election.
There have been two small-sample polls for the by-election. In the Omnisis poll, the Greens led Reform by 33-29 with 26% for Labour. In Opinium, the Greens and Labour were tied at 28% each with 27% for Reform. If Reform wins such a left-wing seat, it will highlight the UK’s bad first past the post system.
The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 28.2%, followed by Labour at 19.8%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 14.1% and the Liberal Democrats 12.5%. There has been some movement to the Greens and against Reform in the last two weeks. But with FPTP, Reform still wins a clear majority with 348 of the 660 House of Commons seats.
Upcoming Welsh and Scottish elections
Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the FPTP seats.
The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 28.2%, followed by Reform at 27.9%, Labour 17.7%, the Conservatives 11.6%, the Greens 7.4% and the Lib Dems 5.7%. Labour has been rising recently with a dip for Plaid and the Greens. Seat projections give Plaid 33 seats, Reform 32, Labour 19, the Conservatives nine, the Greens two and the Lib Dems one. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.
Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that win a large number of FPTP seats don’t win many list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.
In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 34.5% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 19.5% for Reform, 16.2% Labour, 10.3% Conservatives, 9.1% Lib Dems and 7.6% Greens. Seat projections give the SNP 58, Reform 23, Labour 17, the Conservatives 12, the Greens ten and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.
Thai and Bangladeshi elections
Of the 500 Thai lower house seats, 400 are elected by FPTP and 100 by national PR. At the February 8 election, the conservative populist Bhumjaithai won 193 seats (up 122 since the 2023 election), the left-wing People’s 118 (down 33), the populist Pheu Thai 74 (down 67), the centre-right Kia Tham 58 (new) and the conservative Democrats 22 (down three).
This is the first time a conservative party has won the most seats in a Thai election in the 21st century. Bhumjaithai won 174 of the 400 FPTP seats and Kia Tham 56, while People’s won 87 and Pheu Thai 58. Popular votes in the FPTP seats were 29.9% Bhumjaithai, 23.6% People’s, 17.3% Pheu Thai and 11.5% Kia Tham.
Of the 350 Bangladeshi seats, 300 are elected by FPTP with the remaining 50 reserved for women who are appointed proportionally to the elected members. The February 12 election was the first since the July 2024 uprising that forced the authoritarian Awami League from power. The Awami League, which was the centre-left major party before it became authoritarian, was banned at this election.
The somewhat conservative Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won 209 of the 299 FPTP seats (one seat’s election was postponed owing to a candidate’s death). The Islamist Jamaat won 68 seats. Vote shares had the BNP defeating Jamaat by 50.0-31.8.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Interesting results there. With only a primary vote of 34%, Labour would need to form a coalition regardless.
Perhaps then they wouldn’t be in such a bad place. David Cameron successfully threw Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems under the bus in 2015 after the horrible Austerity Coalition and got a Conservative majority.
Here, Starmer has nobody to blame but himself. He got over 400/650 seats in 2024 and has the power to completely transform the country, but refuses to do so.
Not even Thatcher got to 400, best she got was 397 in the 1983 election. But transform the nation she did.
Interesting how many commentators on here speaking authoritatively about parties in the UK of which they clearly have no idea!
Green won and yes, as C@tmomma says, they are far left – from following Aussie politics for a long time now, I would suggest quite similar to the Aussie Greens – though I defer to my Aussie friends on here who know them better, and of course all this left-right chitchat is very subjective and a matter of opinion unless everyone has the same clearly defined ideas/policies that exactly mean ‘right’, ‘left’ or centre, etc. (which they don’t).
But I think mainstream opinion would consider Greens in UK to be far left – unless one believes the whole
world has tilted left on its axis during this century, in which case Greens are simply ‘left’ and the Tories are far right and the Lib Dems are merely right-wing. . .
But someone above saying “. . .while Labour are well to the right of centre” – ha ha ha ha that really goes a little beyond the ‘subjective opinion’ test I think. I’ve LIVED in the UK all my life, and just because Keir Starmer is a flipflopper who often ‘spoke Centre’ in the couple of years up to our GE 2024 and also doesn’t defend Hamas, and hasn’t yet nationalised everything in sight. . . does NOT make him nor Labour ‘right of centre’. Heck, a lot of ex-Tories have abandoned the Tories because they believe them to now be left of centre (although many concede that Kemi Badenoch is herself still a conservative leading a party of centre-left MPs) – certainly most Tory MPs would be to the left of many Democrats in the USA – who I guess would be considered on average a ‘centrist’ party by folks on here?
But back to Labour: I’ve lived through 10 Labour leaders (many who never became PM of course, and 1 or 2 I don’t really remember from the time!) and whilst Keir Starmer is less left than Comrade Corbyn who has now formed his own party, he’s much closer to Corbyn ideologically than his public speeches up to the GE let on.
Governing for nearly 20 months now, in a constrained economy that doesn’t allow Labour to do all the very left-wing economic things they’d like to do – Starmer is fortunately far more pragmatic than Corbyn who is a zealot although their ‘values’ are really quite similar, just without the terrorist-supporting baggage from the 1970s-2000s that Corbyn keeps with him. But anyone in the UK who even half believes that you need capitalism of some description to work (i.e. that you can’t just be communist) does not think Labour in its current form is anything other than anti-business & anti-wealth creation of any sort and is only constrained from snatching a lot more tax from the upper and middle classes by a pragmatism that doesn’t actually want the economy to collapse overnight.
But as it is, whilst Reform rants and raves about immigration and other (perfectly valid) issues, Labour have quietly put a lot more power into the hands of their paymasters the Trade Unions than they’ve had for a long time. The Employment Rights bill got some coverage but was unfortunately over the heads of a lot of the general populace and business groups were not really co-ordinated enough in their opposition to the bill which will freeze hiring even further (this week unemployment figures jumped up again), although some of the most insane elements of the bill have been moderated a little – such as the right to claim unfair dismissal from day 1 of a job but trade unions can still just walk into any size business without permission being needed (yes they do advise when they’re coming, but they have to be allowed in) unless something drastic changes in the final revisions to the bill.
Starmer and the current Labour party may appear less left-wing to those that are very left-wing, because:
1. He’s flipflopped on lots of things (not necessarily lefty-righty things, but makes him look less ‘dedicated to the cause’ if you’re very ideologically driven).
2. They introduced a 2-child benefits cap, which they’ve reversed anyway.
3. On ‘green’ issues, Starmer’s not said that much although he seems to have given eco-zealot Ed Miliband free rein so not sure that’s a point of complaint from the left.
4. He was initially quite supportive publicly of Israel after 10/7, and has a Jewish wife. (yet he chose to recognise Palestine at the UN and is weak as water on support for Israel’s self-defence.)
5. He’s only nationalised some of the railways so far. . .
6. Starmer’s so incompetent that no-one really knows entirely what he wants to do (probably why he’s pleasing almost nobody and there’s such a gap for the Greens to fill with their media-savvy, vacuous but articulate leader). Those of us who are ‘right of centre’ can’t work out whether this incompetence is a good thing or a bad thing! – the country’s certainly going downhill IMHO and suffers from weak leadership (that didn’t just start with Starmer).
But believe me, this is still the most leftwing Labour party (and government, even if it’s not as leftwing as backbenchers and communist zealots like Richard Burgon would like) of my lifetime. Some think I’m a bit extreme when I characterise them as communist, but if you look at their intentions and what they say, I can’t really conclude otherwise. And I say that as someone with a good dollop of socialism in me on the compassionate/welfare aspect of things (strongly believe in higher basic pensions, higher minimum wages and even better disability benefits – but with more rigorous testing of need of the latter, I think true cases become obvious quickly without anyone needing to feel ‘shamed’ through the evaluations).
Just because there’s an even further left in the form of the unholy alliance that has emerged between the anti-women, very pro-LGBT (emphasis on the ‘T’ there) Green Party and the homophobic Islam lobby – united pretty much by their joint opposition to most things Judaeo-Christian and in support for mass unmitigated immigration and large welfare benefits for those that don’t work and a very strong inclination to communism economically. . . does not somehow mean that this Labour party is not ‘left-wing’ – or indeed, far left by some of our estimation. On social issues, it is pretty much as left-wing as Greens too – except Labour don’t support legalisation of all hard drugs.
Sorry for the lengthy epistle.
@BTSays at 6:11pm
That’s something that should be heard from Starmer’s communication team to be honest.
As mentioned earlier, half of Labour’s 2024 voters are now actively voting for other parties. That’s going to destroy them if they change nothing before the next election is due in 2029.
@ven “It is amazing isn’t it, how BTsays has sanitised ‘Reform’ party? ”
I don’t often come on here, but sad to see you still pick on posters by name who are presumed more right-wing than you for that reason only.
Surprising to see you rejoice at the Green win given your cult-like love of PM Modi. Did you know that Greens ran various leaflets for the Muslim parts of the seat only, including at least one showing Starmer alongside Modi as a big negative to win votes among their new Muslim friends? It seems he’s not in favour as well as Netanyahu, they bigged up on the anti-Israel stuff of course, not sure if you’re anti-Semitic as well or not. . .?
Greens got elected through en masse sectarian voting – now a big controversy because illegal ‘family voting’ took place yesterday on a scale not seen at an election in the UK for many years.
Of course this was in favour of Greens this time. The chickens have come home to roost for Labour, who were happy to turn a blind eye to the sectarian voting habits of what used to be their most reliable bloc of voters (the Muslim vote, in case that wasn’t obvious). It has returned to them at GE times after one-off support at by-elections in the past to elect George Galloway for instance, but this time feels quite different with Labour already on the ropes somewhat and having lost a chunk of this at the last election to Independent pro-Hamas candidates and Corbyn etc.
I also suspect Greens will, on average, move ahead of Labour in the polls now and not just from 1 or 2 pollsters at times – meaning they will often be 2nd in the polls behind Reform from now on unless Badenoch can pull some rabbits out of her hat. Although the Green surge may not last, and I expect Labour to make a big announcement on something by the weekend just to change the subject.
Hopefully the brighter light that may now be shone on the Green Party in the UK will expose them for what they really are and people will stop seeing them as harmless, well-meaning people now they are getting closer to power.
I have no doubt that the overwhelming numbers of Greens flooding Gorton & Denton during the campaign and on voting day, along with having a white working class outspoken female plumber who might just have appealed to the baser instincts of the male elements of the WWC, probably got Greens a substantial chunk of WWC voters that might otherwise have voted Reform, and bolstered their big turnout in the Muslim and studenty areas of the seat. It’s only political wonks like us on here that don’t understand how such votes can be interchangeable between such radically different parties.
P.S. Ven – Greens lied their way through the campaign about Matt Goodwin. Take an honest look at all the quotes attributed to him, and if they were true at all, in the context they were said and how he has said them and when; watch a speech or two of Goodwin’s that he’s given over the years if you’re truly open-minded – and you’ll see he’s a decent guy and nothing like the racist or ‘national socialist’ that his opponents successfully painted him as (to some degree, given the shortness of the campaign).
BYSays, I reckon you need to start cutting your pills in half. What a load of crap you do spout!
@Clem Attlee at 6:33pm
I think that’s a bit mean to say. BTSays has provided a lot of information on their opinions on UK politics tonight and dismissing it as drug-addled crap is just nasty.
According to Wikipedia, white people are 57% of the population, Asians are 27%, Black people 9% and others 7%.
Was it “sectarian” when Farage got 46% in Clacton to win his seat in Parliament?
I will admit that the “sectarian” stuff is something I can’t defend.
Starmer basically sucks at politics. He either needs to improve on that or get out for someone who doesn’t suck. Otherwise, Labour MP’s are going to be reduced to double digits in 2029.
Btsays
As per polling Labour was not in a position to win. Hence, I was glad that Greens won the seat because I did not want Reform to win.
BTW, Modi was on official visit to Israel yesterday and the day before.
Every one knows that Netanyahu and Modi developed good personal friendship over the years.
Hence, Netanyahu invited Modi to address the Knesset.
The Knesset speaker, Netanyahu and Israeli Opposition leader called Modi ‘friend of Israel’ in their speeches. IMO, that is biggest compliment a foreign leader can get from Israeli politicians because you know that Netanyahu was lashing out at lot of western leaders for the rise of anti-Semitism. Netanyahu even wore an Indian dress for the banquet hosted in honour of Modi.
Netanyahu even awarded the highest Knesset award to Modi on this visit.
I honestly don’t know what Modi did wrt Israel to receive such honour.
BTW, I don’t like Netanyahu. That doesn’t mean I am anti-Semitic.
Kirsdarke
IMO, Starmer cannot improve.
@Ven at 7:59pm
Yeah, I’m getting that impression more and more.
If this doesn’t finish him off then the local elections in May probably will.
Btsays
Thanks for the information you provided regarding that seat and why, in your opinion, Greens won the seat.
Starmer has been leading UK Labour on a death march almost since he took power.
He’s completely craven and doesn’t believe in anything. He has at times run to the right of Reform on economic issues such as cutting welfare, and has senior ministers whose views on social issues would make them a solid fit for the Coalition here. Where Albanese has lines he won’t cross, Starmer has absolutely none. On just about any issue that Labor that would normally dominate, he’s either absent or actively making the country worse, and it’s completely unsurprising that voters are looking literally anywhere else.
If Starmer hadn’t blocked Andy Burnham from running in Gordon and Denton to stop Burnham mounting a leadership challenge against him, Burnham would have won Gordon and Denton in a canter no matter what the Greens did. Instead, he managed to lose the seat with a 28% swing to the Greens.
I’m struggling to think of a bigger own goal in politics in the last couple of years than this.
The Telegraph less than pleased with the result…
@sprocket at 8:27pm
I don’t mean to be rude, but politically speaking, Zack Polanski should really do something about that missing tooth.
It really doesn’t suit him. A false tooth should be enough to solve it.
Nice one.
I just want to say that I realised right from the start that this was just one by-election and not two. In contrast to the last time.
I’m getting the hang of these Pommy constituency names.
“I don’t mean to be rude, but politically speaking, Zack Polanski should really do something about that missing tooth.
It really doesn’t suit him. A false tooth should be enough to solve it.”
Maybe he could hypnotise a dentist into doing it for free.
Kirsdarke wrote, “I think that’s a bit mean to say. BTSays has provided a lot of information on their opinions on UK politics tonight and dismissing it as drug-addled crap is just nasty.”
So, you agree that that Starmer’s Labour Party is communist? Ha, ha! Only a crank would believe that to be true. Sorry.
Poor Labor together, they broke the law, destroyed the real soul of the Labour Party, are knowingly supporting strongly a genoicide, arrested all sorts of citizens for opposing genoicide, have until recently been economically to the right of Thatcher, had a senior player at the heart of the Epstein class, and some reform stooges still think they are left.
What are a bunch of unprincipled charlatans to do!
A victory for the Far Left Greens.
And their terrifying idea that people who work should get a fair go and have a nice life.
Truly horrific and terrifying I mean really out there stuff. Not even a pretence of submission to the Epstein class. Who do they think they are. Leaflets to people in their own language! Disgraceful.
Illegal “family voting”… the Muslim women wanted to vote Reform but instead the husbands forced them to vote Green?
How does anyone force anybody to vote a certain way in a country with a secret ballot? Can’t you just go into a booth, vote however you want, and then tell them, “Yes, honey, I voted for who you wanted.”?
Asha 4.45pm – you obviously missed the controversy raging over ‘family voting’ being seen in Gorton & Denton at unprecedented levels.
Ven and Kirsdarke – thanks for responses.
@Ghost “Was it “sectarian” when Farage got 46% in Clacton to win his seat in Parliament?”
That’s probably one of the most ignorant questions I’ve seen on here in a while – white voters in this country do not vote en masse / in collusion. Muslim voters do, either at family or wider group level at the very least (in many cases).
There’s also reports of non-voters with National Insurance numbers voting, but I’ve no idea if there’s any truth to it. Obviously if you’re illegally allowed to vote ‘together’ in groups as families, then it would be a lot easier to post a little stack of voting slips that might contain a few extra without looking suspicious.
What makes it collusion for brown people and not collusion for white people?
What makes it illegal even if the Muslims all decided to “vote en masse”. Are they not living in a democracy where any group of any amount of people can come together to decide to vote for each other.
They didn’t even vote for a “Muslim Party”, they voted for the Greens, for a white woman candidate being lead by a gay Jewish man!
“And their terrifying idea that people who work should get a fair go and have a nice life.”
Tell me a party that hasn’t said exactly that in the last 50 years. There’s nothing about Green’s ruinous policies that will do anything other than take people in the exact opposite direction.
Besides, what Hannah Spencer and fake-named Zack Polanski said in the victory speeches aiming at a more middle class national audience bore little resemblance (in large part) to what was said on the trail to appeal to their target audiences’ baser instincts.
They are at least 3-faced. Various ordinary decent small business owner Muslims already regretting their votes based on belatedly being told of their support for more hard drugs, more easy pornography, and even more wide open immigration with no discussion of the need for integration.
“What makes it collusion for brown people and not collusion for white people?”
Do catch up with what’s been going on in Gorton and Denton before asking these daft questions.
The answer to the above question is, nothing if there’s no collusion. And everything, if there’s collusion like there so often is in Muslim-heavy seats such as Galloway winning Bradford (then swinging en masse back to Labour at the next GE) and to Greens to a lesser degree in Gorton and Denton.
The share of the vote and who wins the seat is at least partially a consequence of collusion, whereas you seem to think we are saying that it is EVIDENCE of collusion. No, somebody might perfectly legally win 80% of the vote in a seat with no evidence of collusion.
BTSays.
“Tell me a party that hasn’t said exactly that in the last 50 years. ”
I grudgingly admit that’s a fair point. Actually, fifty years is a bit minimalist. You could probably go back to the Roman Republic and see the same thing.
Nevertheless, when politicians keep promising sunlit uplands and keep failing to deliver, voters become desperate for alternatives. And here we all are.
Ante Meridian
Can’t argue with that. Destined for more disappointment.
Though how many are actively trying to be part of the solution, or would be any better than their complaints would imply if they did, would be a question.
We find it much easier to carp from the sidelines.
“There’s also reports of non-voters with National Insurance numbers voting,”
Not sure what this means but you need to put your NI number into the form to register. If you don’t have an NI number there are other ways to verify your identity. Also you don’t need to show your NI number at the polling station.
The NI number only comes into play when registering to vote. It’s not printed on poll cards or on the list of electors.
And above all we don’t have on the day registration to vote over here. If you’re not on the register by the due date (around 3 weeks before polling day) you aren’t on the list and if you’re not on the list you ain’t getting a ballot papers.
“then it would be a lot easier to post a little stack of voting slips that might contain a few extra without looking suspicious.”
Again not sure what you mean by this.
The issue of ballot papers is closely controlled. There aren’t piles of them on tables like there are at French elections which the elector then puts their choice into an envelope.
Any fraudulent papers would soon be identified during the verification stage of the count and be picked up by not being the correct colour or type of paper as well as the layout. Each paper is numbered as well and a paper with no or an incorrect number would soon be extracted before it enters the count stage of the process.
It would also become apparent during verification that the number of ballot papers in the box isn’t the same as papers issued at the polling station which would generate enquiries before the count stage starts.
Reform and to a lesser extent Labor are seething because a muslim population voting for a progressive white female plumber, in a party led by a gay jewish man, threatens the conventional accepted narrative about race and class politics.
I say this as somebody not fully in the bag for Polanski, but he has been extremely smart in recognising how to push progressivism without selling out your core values, and without kowtowing to the right.
Hannah Spencer saying that we believe working hard should get you a good life was brilliant class awareness and things like that will sidestep the bullshit infighting we often see on the left because ultimately wanting a roof over your head, a healthy family and the opportunity to participate in luxury, will win out over whatever culture war migrant crisis nonsense of the day is.
Will be interesting to see if the Greens can mimic similar results for them at the upcoming state election in Victoria or federally in 2028.
Bean
Nonsense – nothing to do with the class, sex, race, sexual orientation or occupation of the candidate or their party’s leader for most people.
Fairly and squarely down to their awful stated intentions and policies, and to a lesser extent their unpleasant personalities in the case of Hannah Spencer.
What? The Greens won because of awful policies and a nasty candidate?
Bean
No – you’ve forgotten what you said, even though it’s just a few cm away on this page. Let me remind you what you said:
“Reform and to a lesser extent Labor are seething because a muslim population voting for a progressive white female plumber, in a party led by a gay jewish man, threatens the conventional accepted narrative about race and class politics.”
And I just corrected the reason why people are seething (not just Reform and Labour supporters), by saying: “Fairly and squarely down to their awful stated intentions and policies, and to a lesser extent their unpleasant personalities in the case of Hannah Spencer.”
I hope this is clear now.
P.S. We could of course have also added about the investigation into voting irregularities. If it was observed that much in polling booths, one can only imagine what happened within families regarding postal votes!
Oh right yeah that makes sense sorry. I’ve had about 7 hours of sleep the last 2 days so my brain is a bit foggy haha sorry about that
Bean – no probs.