The third poll of the South Australian state election campaign, conducted by DemosAU/Ace Strategies for InDaily, finds Labor on 43% (compared with 44% from Newspoll and 37% from YouGov), One Nation on 19% (24% from Newspoll, 22% from YouGov), the Liberals on 18% (14% from Newspoll, 20% from YouGov) and the Greens on 12% (12% from Newspoll, 13% from YouGov). Also featured through the link are fairly extensive breakdowns by gender, age, education and housing tenure.
Results from the poll were published earlier in the week on upper house voting intention, with Labor on 38%, One Nation on 21%, Liberal on 15%, the Greens on 11%, Family First on 4% and Animal Justice on 3%. With 11 seats up for election and a quota of 8.33%, this suggests a clean four seats for Labor, two for One Nation, one for Liberal and one for the Greens, with the remainder most likely going to a fifth Labor, a third One Nation and a second Liberal, although Family First might be competitive. Otherwise the total numbers in the chamber would be Labor ten, Liberal six, One Nation four and Greens two.
The poll was conducted January 31 to February 16 from a sample of 1070.
Question: on these numbers, what would the hypothetical TPP be between Labor and both Lib and ONP?
If there is a uniform swing across SA, how many seats are we looking at?
Will Labor get to 40 out of the 47 seats? It’s starting to look possible, though I still think the high 30s is more likely. And the Liberals will be looking over their shoulders at ON in Chaffey, Fllinders, Hammond, Ngadjuri and Schubert.
Three weeks to go – we will soon find out whether the Liberals are preferencing ON ahead of Labor.
Greens: Male 9%, Female 16%.
More people thing One Nation is ready to lead tan do the Liberals.
With those sort of numbers the Liberals will be either out of the House of Assembly entirely, or at least be decimated to just 2-4 seats. Labor could realistically win up to 40 seats which would absolutely have them dominate when it comes to the chamber floor with no effective opposition at all.
I’m estimating about a 2pp of 65-35 Labor v. One Nation and 63-37 Labor v. Liberal from this primary vote.
We’ll have to see on the day though how Liberals direct their preferences in seats where they drop to 3rd behind Labor and One Nation.
Fed libs need to flood the zone in SA over the next few weeks as the local libs out of their depth heading for extinction.
Need to hammer pretty boy ,all gloss non substance and smash him on health and the debt that’s coming via crazy infrastructure plans.
Nothing to lose and I noticed young Angus there yesterday and work experience chick err lib leader on SA in background.
Libs are already clawing back one nation in a number of states etc .
Also I’d be interested to see how things go in Heysen. With the collapse of the Liberal vote and the Greens polling a bit better overall than they did in 2022, they might be able to win it.
Then again most One Nation voters would preference Liberals and Labor over the Greens if it comes down to that. It’ll be one to watch either way.
Fed libs need to flood the zone in SA over the next few weeks as the local libs out of their depth heading for extinction.
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Some Oldschool Libs rats are swimming over at the PHON liferaft. That’s what too much SkyNews and a bubble of entitlement will do to you.
Kirks. Teague works hard. People like him. He is uncontroversial. You’d like to think that counts for something. But PHON are running in Heysen. The ALP have stepped up in recent years in the area. And the rats are worried.
@Team Katich
Yeah, it’s probably going to go that way. With about a 10% swing overall against them, the Liberals look like they’ll lose everything in Adelaide, good local MP’s or not.
The narrative is going to messed up – Labor is about to get a massive majority but One Nation is set to be the story.
For the House of Assembly election, One Nation contested 19 seats, seven in Adelaide and 12 in the rest of the state. State-wide One nation polled 2.6%, but a better measure of support is polling 6.6% in the 19 seats it contested, 6.4% in Adelaide seats and 6.6% in regional seats. One Nation’s may have been reduced in the regional seats of Finniss, Hammond, Kavel, Narungga and Stuart by strong support for Independents. In regional seats the party polled 11.0% in mid-northern Frome, 8.1% in the south-east seat of Mackillop and 9.9% in Riverland based Chaffey. In Adelaide the best results were 9.9% in outer northern Elizabeth and 8.8% in neighbouring Taylor, and 8.2% in outer southern Kaurna. Elizabeth and Taylor are in the Federal seat of Spence where One Nation also polls strongly.
In the Legislative Council, One Nation was in the ballot paper in every electorate. One Nation polled 4.2% state-wide, 3.4% in Adelaide electorates and 6.2% in non-metropolitan seats. One Nation’s Council vote was above 5% in 17 seats, 12 of them regional seats. Of the five Adelaide seats above 5%, four corresponded to Spence with the adjacent seats of Elizabeth, Light, Ramsay and Taylor. The fifth was outer southern Kaurna.
All these results correspond to the Federal pattern of strongest support in rural and regional seats, with a patch of strong One Nation in northern Adelaide seats centred on Elizabeth.
https://antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-where-one-nation-will-poll-strongest/
2026 South Australian House of Assembly results based on the latest DemosAU poll:
ALP: 39 seats
LIB: 2 seats
PHON: 1 seat
GRN: 0 seats
IND: 5 seats
OTH: 0 seats
There was also a third article on the Demos poll here.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/02/24/who-do-sa-voters-like-most-exclusive-polling-reveals-top-rated-pollie-talent
Who do SA voters like most? Exclusive polling reveals top-rated pollie talent
The ratings are in for party leaders with some unexpected results – including for one seasoned pollie at the helm of Labor’s most public broken promise. Results also back the Lib decision to switch leaders. See who tops the pollies’ popularity contest.
Helen Karakulak
Feb 24, 2026, updated Feb 24, 2026
God, I hope the Liberals follow Pied Piper’s advice and send a bunch of out-of-state federal pollies to dominate the campaign. I bet South Australians will just love that.
Senator Alex Antic was spotted on Rundle Street having a beer with Corey Bernardi who is the new SA leader of One Nation. It was great public undermining of the Liberal opposition leader 4 weeks from the election.
They were probably focussed on early negotiations of a new opposition Coalition after the Liberals are left with next to nothing.
Independent leader of the opposition?
In terms of advertising I’ve seen so far:
TV:
Plenty of Ashton Hurn Liberal ads and some ads for the Greens, that’s it (other than information ads from ECSA.) Of course, the Government haven’t been shy about abusing the “Government ad” loophole right up until the day of writs. I imagine Labor will begin a more concentrated ad blitz closer to the election (e.g. in a week or so.)
Flyers in the mail:
With the caveat that I live in a safe Labor seat (safe even during an election where the Liberals are competitive that is), so far just one: a Family First flyer.
Facebook:
With the caveat that I am not that present on Facebook and the acknowledgement that the algorithm tailors which ads you’re more likely to see: Plenty of Labor ads/sponsored posts, a few Liberal and some One Nation. I see Green posts regularly, so I don’t know how much of that is targeted ads or how much of that’s the normal noise.
It’s a shame that this poll is only released now, when the mid-point of the (extensive period of) fieldwork is 8 February. That’s 18 days ago, and some people were polled 26 days ago.
Spreading it out is one thing, but couldn’t they have released it no later than 17-18 February with the end of the fieldwork being 16th? – you’d have thought this poll was the most urgent of the state polls to be released, not the last one to be done.
Let’s hope there’s some more come along that take into account the recent campaigning from all sides (and events).
Are there any leader debates planned?
And are they 2-way, 3-way or what?
Probably. Usually someone organises a leaders debate, even though interest is extremely limited. I imagine it would just be Malinauskas v. Hurn at this point. There might be some protest from One Nation but honestly, I think they’re better served as still just being a party name with some general idea of what they’re for than a specific face with specific policies (outside of Pauline Hanson who has cultivated a personal following over the last few decades.) A politician and policies can be torn down. Broad populist anger and dissatisfaction with the status quo, OTOH, is a lot harder to quell.
I’m from the seat of Port Adelaide which has been a safe Labor seat since the party’s founding. I received 2 campaign flyers from the mail. One was from the Greens, and the other was from an independent (Claire Boan).
The people of South Australia might be about to find out what democracy looks like with no opposition. Or at least, no meaningful opposition.
As much as I hate the liberals, I’m not sure this is a good thing long term.
I’m from Victoria and I can remember the 1992 election when the Coalition was swept to power and Labor was humiliated.
It was nothing like what now looms in S.A. in reverse.
The only seat I ever hear the Greens mentioned in is Heysen, up in the hills. In the three largest states, there’s inner-city seats where they do well, to the point that it’s a stereotype. Vic has a bundle (eight contiguous seats where they either won or made the 2cp in 2022), NSW has Newtown, Balmain and Summer Hill, Qld has Maiwar and South Brisbane. Is there an Adelaide equivalent of those sort of suburbs (full of uni students, hipsters, fancy cafes etc)? Top scorers seem to be Unley (18.7%) and West Torrens (17.2%).
Another thing I noticed from last election: the Greens just straight up didn’t bother in four seats (Frome, MacKillop, Mt Gambier, Narungga). Obviously they’re probably their four worst seats in the state and I don’t blame them for sitting out, but usually they run everywhere, no matter how unwinnable – even if it’s just a paper candidate to support the upper house vote. Still missing 15 candidates the day before nominations close, there’s gonna be a few of those.
There’s a late scratching on the Libs upper house ticket – Thea Hennessey, in the probably unwinnable #4 spot. The two below her seem to have shifted up a slot. Paywalled link here:
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/liberal-upper-house-candidate-thea-hennessey-quits-sa-election-race-weeks-before-poll/news-story/e57929b241273e68f5ef3e0435a900d1
I think the 5 seats the Libs can win are;
1- Chaffey: ON the only threat there.
2- Schubert: The leaders presence may be enough to get her over the line.
3- MacKillop- Probably the most interesting seat with three genuine threats.
4- Flinders- ON and Independents may hurt them.
5- Bragg- The only Adelaide seat they’re a chance in.
Bird of paradox
One of the NSW Greens seats is Ballina. An country but crunchy electorate that has suffered climate change first hand (three once in a hundred years in ten years). As climate issues bite for farmers and rusted Nats i suspect the Greens to be the ones to offer the alternative rather than Labor.
Key update:
Definitely True 13
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 0
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 13
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 0
“The people of South Australia might be about to find out what democracy looks like with no opposition. Or at least, no meaningful opposition. As much as I hate the liberals, I’m not sure this is a good thing long term.”
There’s nothing in the constitution that mandates that the opposition to Labor be a right-wing opposition.
Maybe the Greens could get their act together knowing they have a chance at securing a decent chunk of support from people who would only realistically Green or Labor in the 1 & 2 positions, and provide an alternative to far-right culture wars and cutting tax for billionaires non-policy.
Looks like around 60.5% to Labor at the election.
Shifting 1.5 points from Labor to the Libs in the last Newspoll to roughly match the 2PP gets primary votes of:
ALP 42.5%
LIB 15.5%
ONP 24%
GRN 12%
OTH 6%
Wonder what seat count that would likely result in.
QLD Labor not only survived being absolutely destroyed at the 2012 but they bounced back and won the following election. And they don’t have an upper house to keep their legislation in check. I’m SA democracy will be fine. It’s hardly North Korea just because the Opposition Party are a rabble right now (and it’s entirely on them that they are.)
SA Liberal Party flirting with fire as One Nation preference deal looms: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-27/liberal-one-nation-potential-preferences-analysis/106391418
The only seat I ever hear the Greens mentioned in is Heysen,…….
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I guess it’s worth mentioning that an ex Green candidate for the local Fed (or state, or both?) electorate recently got elected mayor of Adelaide Hills Council.
Kirsdarke
“ I’m estimating about a 2pp of 65-35 Labor v. One Nation and 63-37 Labor v. Liberal from this primary vote.”
Thanks, I was wondering what the 2PP would be. It would be great if Labor could flip Bragg. Then we can finally have a Labor MP at State and Federal level.
Given how right wing the leadership of the Liberals appears to be, outside the Leader herself, it seems likely they could do a preference deal with One Nation
I hope they are punished by voters if they do, that would send a message more broadly
Hopefully the Greens can win a seat or two
Has Ashton Hurn made up her mind yet about preferencing One Nation over Labor?
I think it would do her and the Liberals more harm than good. If Labor are going to win anyway, why bring grief upon yourself and your party by doing it?
Cat
All the talk here has been that the discussions between Liberal (Alex Antic) and One Nation (Cori Bernardi) seems to be occurring without Ashton Hurn.
So the Liberals have put Ashton out the front to sell the product, but the boys are still running the show. As a Federal Senator Antic is neither SA parliamentary leader or party Chairman.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/tall-cories-bernardis-bunkum-about.html
Tall Cories: Bernardi’s Bunkum About Preferences
Article in today’s Advertiser unhelpfully mixes the topics of where One Nation will direct preferences (ie suggest in their HTVs) and their support for optional preferential voting.
Thanks Kevin.
SA Morgan: A: Primary support for Labor is 35% (down 5% from the 2022 State Election), well ahead of One Nation on 28% (up 25.4%), and more than double the Opposition L-NP on 16.5% (down 19.7%). Support for the Greens is 11% (up 1.9%), while 3% (down 1.8%) support Other Parties, and 6.5% (down 0.8%) support Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 19-23, 2026, with a representative South Australia-wide cross-section of 2,172 electors.
Despite losing primary support, the ALP’s two-party preferred support has increased since 2022 and is far ahead of the L-NP: ALP 61% (up 6.4% points from the 2022 State Election) cf. L-NP 39% (down 6.4% points). Labor also has a large two-party preferred lead over One Nation: ALP 59% cf. One Nation 41%.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10153-south-australia-state-voting-intention-february-2026
It’ll be good to finally get an idea in a few weeks about how seriously we should be taking these Morgan SMS polls.
That would be quite the turnaround (and a pretty scary portent off things to come) if that poll is at all accurate.
It’ll be good to finally get an idea in a few weeks about how seriously we should be taking these Morgan SMS polls. That would be quite the turnaround (and a pretty scary portent off things to come) if that poll is at all accurate.
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Yeah. Cat and pigeon stuff. Or, in my backyard, boobook and pigeons.
I kinda dont like being the guinea pig for Morgan SMS polls showing PHON in with a shot of being bulls in the china shop.
Dare I say it, US independent polling companies struggled to grasp the voting potency of the MAGA base. Maybe Morgan SMS isnt monkey business and instead letting the cat out of the bag by highlighting the elephant in the room.
Beer anyone?
NGL, I am a bit nervous about how the Legislative Council is going to shape up, with Labor’s primary potentially falling, the Greens being static and Family First being a potential threat for a seat, my concern is that, after all is done and dusted the result might end up looking like:
4 ALP
3 ON
2 LIB
1 GRN
1 FF
Giving us a chamber of
9 ALP
6 LIB
3 ON
2 GRN
1 FF
1 IND (former ON)
Which would mean the Government would have to make deals with someone on the Right to get legislation passed, bringing up unpleasant memories of the previous Labor Government when Family First and nutters like Ann Bressington often called the shots in the LC.
I would have thought Bragg and Morialta would have been perfect seats for Climate 200 to have ran candidates in as they are the most affluent suburban electorates in Adelaide. Pretty much the biggest missed opportunity to actually have a presence in South Australia.
Wat: if that happened Sarah Game would have the balance of power. She seems… relatively sane for an ex-One Nation type?
I doubt it, though. On that Morgan poll, quotas would look like this:
ALP 4.2
ON 3.36
Lib 1.98
Grn 1.32
Others 1.14
Green #2 would absorb a lot of Labor’s surplus at some point and get close to half a quota. Another 3% or so from Animal Justice or Legalise Cannabis (who’ll make up a larger % than usual of the “others” vote thanks to One Nation taking most of the minor RW vote), and that should get them the rest of the way. Because of exhaustion, something like 0.8 quotas should be enough for the last seat.
And if Labor’s vote drifts a bit higher, swap out Green #2 for ALP #5. Due to the SA Greens’ recent dramas, I reckon that’s more likely anyway.
Is SA’s Legislative Council elected at-large, or are there divisions?
@Asha It’s elected at-large.
Asha
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_Legislative_Council
“Major changes came in 1973 under Don Dunstan. Dunstan, a social reformist, tired of the council’s obstructionist attitude, and put forward bills for its reform. These changes would remove the council’s rural bias as well as all restrictions on suffrage (other than the age of majority, though this was lowered from 21 to 18 years). Initially rejected by the council, the reform created a single statewide electorate of 22 members, with 11 being elected each general election. It eventually passed with bipartisan support.”
https://www.parliament.sa.gov.au/Legislative-Council/Legislative-Council-Home
The Legislative Council is the Upper House of the Parliament of South Australia. Members of the Legislative Council (MLCs) are elected for a term of eight years, with half of the Legislative Council’s 22 seats declared vacant at each election.
Each MLC is elected to represent the whole state on a system of proportional representation. This system of voting allows a greater diversity of minor parties and independents to be elected to the Parliament. It also makes it difficult for any one party to control the Chamber.