The third poll of the South Australian state election campaign, conducted by DemosAU/Ace Strategies for InDaily, finds Labor on 43% (compared with 44% from Newspoll and 37% from YouGov), One Nation on 19% (24% from Newspoll, 22% from YouGov), the Liberals on 18% (14% from Newspoll, 20% from YouGov) and the Greens on 12% (12% from Newspoll, 13% from YouGov). Also featured through the link are fairly extensive breakdowns by gender, age, education and housing tenure.
Results from the poll were published earlier in the week on upper house voting intention, with Labor on 38%, One Nation on 21%, Liberal on 15%, the Greens on 11%, Family First on 4% and Animal Justice on 3%. With 11 seats up for election and a quota of 8.33%, this suggests a clean four seats for Labor, two for One Nation, one for Liberal and one for the Greens, with the remainder most likely going to a fifth Labor, a third One Nation and a second Liberal, although Family First might be competitive. Otherwise the total numbers in the chamber would be Labor ten, Liberal six, One Nation four and Greens two.
The poll was conducted January 31 to February 16 from a sample of 1070.
Thomas / Leroy:
Thanks.
Other SA news: David Speirs is running for Black as an independent.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-27/david-speirs-announces-political-comeback-for-sa-election/106389794
It’s still a bit unclear whether he’s allowed to be a member of parliament. ECSA said he’s not entitled to public funding due to his criminal conviction, but they let him nominate, so… clear as mud? If he wins and is ineligible to serve, it would mean an automatic by-election, which would make ECSA look a bit stupid.
Funny thing is, Speirs was charged, convicted and did his sentence all in one parliamentary term. Meanwhile, Troy Bell got re-elected twice as an independent while waiting for the process to grind through, and Fraser Ellis is about to do the same.
Wasn’t he the MP that allegedly snorted cocaine?
Yep, and sold it. More than once. (No need to worry about the word “allegedly” for that one.)
He’s got Buckley’s chance of winning with the swing to Labor that’s about to happen, but he might come second. Black was one of the last seats the Libs announced a candidate for, ahead of only a bunch of unwinnable northern Adelaide seats, so they can’t think much of their chances there.
Another upper house thought: if the minor left-ish parties other than the Greens (AJP, LC, Tammy Franks) swap preferences, one of them could get ahead of Green #2 and ALP #5 and nab that last seat.
BOP
We live in Bragg and, for what its worth, the Liberal campaign here has been pretty low key so far. One small mailout from Liberal MP Jack Batty.
So far Jack’s most memorable campaign features are his photo with a casual blue checked shirt rather than suit and tie, and his poster with a daring light blue, almost teal colour background, rather than traditional Liberal navy blue. Wow!
If I didn’t know better 8 would say he was trying to camouflage himself as a Teal 🙂
The sub-editor at the Advertiser has been having plenty of fun with Speirs:
Two headlines, three sneaky drug references. Nice.
From the Greens position on defense it is clear there is no single party in SA with a defense policy I think is credible. The Greens want to not only cancel AUKUS (agreed) but all SA government spending on defence!
This contradicts what they later say about being more independent of USA and having a locally made defence capability (with no government funding??)
So the choices are either full AUKUS with Labor or Liberal, or nothing with the minors. Both extremes are absurd in my view.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-28/greens-unfazed-by-polling-ahead-of-sa-election/106381914
So we have one convicted cocaine seller and someone on bail in home detention on domestic violence charges.
Digoenes – Reminds me of when the Bikies tried to run candidates.
If the rumours are true, there is an untapped serial killer vote in Adelaide.
(I know that the murder rate is not different to other states, it is just Croweaters do their killing in strange ways that get press)
BSF
Yes, our murder rate is average but we tend to have more serial killers, or groups of killers.
Snowtown
Family
Truro
We had a lovely lady on PB, Judith Barnes, whose son was a victim. She died a while ago.
The SA Liberal and Labor parties say they would put the former opposition leader David Speirs last on the ballot paper. Speirs said he has nominated to run as an independent in his former seat of Black at the state election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-28/sa-liberal-and-labor-to-preference-david-speirs-last-at-election/106400228
Remembering libel laws apply, does anyone know WTF is the story with Mali and Digance? It’s extremely grubby and confusing. How does the wrong judgement get entered? Why wear a wire and then complain she didn’t say anything incriminating?
I really do wonder what exactly Spiers is hoping to achieve by running as an independent.
Leonardo Puglisi: Appears Sarah Game’s Fair Go Party has had another candidate leave the party before the South Australian election. Jake Hall-Evans (formerly their Legislative Council candidate who then moved to Colton) has put out a statement now saying he’s running as an independent.
Asha @ #64 Saturday, February 28th, 2026 – 9:01 pm
I can’t say for certain but I suspect it’s to try and prove some sort of point he thinks he has. Maybe he thought the party would rally behind him when the scandal dropped and they instead turned their back on him, and he wants revenge. Maybe he thinks that they previously won the seat because of him and his personal popularity in the electorate, and locals will back him (inspired by some country Liberal-turned-independents in the past.) Who knows? I’m sure the usual class/economic reductionist argument of “He’s trying to make money/wants an MP’s salary again” is going to be put forward by someone.
Bird of paradox @ #47 Friday, February 27th, 2026 – 8:08 pm
Since her defection, whenever there has been an issue that clearly has a “RW nutter” side of the divide, she’s always joined it. Her defection from One Nation was due to a quarrel with Hanson and her management of the party and had nothing to do with her realising the party was too extreme or had the wrong values.
An important thing to remember about One Nation defects now and going forward: Just because they’re no longer in One Nation, it doesn’t mean they don’t still share the party’s core ideological values. They were a One Nation candidate for a reason.
Wat
Spiers is very wealthy. He doesn’t need to work.
I think he has unfinished business and relevance deprivation syndrome.
Evidently he is big on the environment and made an excellent minister.
An important thing to remember about One Nation defects now and going forward: Just because they’re no longer in One Nation, it doesn’t mean they don’t still share the party’s core ideological values. They were a One Nation candidate for a reason.
+++
Agree. So the Left need to find ways to harness those independent members and votes without conceding anything to their nutty right wing agenda.
For example, renationalising and repatriating Australian industry and jobs. Something that could put a wedge between the ON and Liberal-vestige. Liberals will never be able to go for economic nationalism but the Left can find a way.
Also the ON vote would be very sensitive on the Jewish state. Libs will go all in but ON might be very sensitive to the Tucker Carlson view.
So no agreements with Hanson or her party, but possible to strip independents off them.
Who knows? I’m sure the usual class/economic reductionist argument of “He’s trying to make money/wants an MP’s salary again” is going to be put forward by someone.
+++
I presume lawyers and every other thing associated with a serious conviction cost money, so I would certainly understand the thinking.
That said it will be relevance deprivation, and the Liberal Party, as it circles the drain, will have a thousand messiahs emerge to save it.
Sarah Game made is very clear in a letter to the Tiset this week that she supports a multiracial Australia. She and Pauline appear to be polls apart.
I’m guessing it’s now just a universal consensus that One Nation is going to win Chaffey.
TT
I think she is a religious anti-abortion type who fell in to ON.
She is a vet so she’s not stupid.
Candidate lists now up. Labor, Libs and One Nation everywhere, Greens missing in six seats (Giles, Hurtle Vale, Lee, Light, Ngadjuri, Stuart). AJP have 16, pretty chunky – looks like they’re having a serious go at an upper house seat. Flinders has the most with nine; seven in Dunstan, Finniss, Hammond and Mt Gambier. Just three in Giles and Light.
In the upper house: 14 parties and Tammy Franks’ independent ticket. Something called “United Voice Australia” is in there, because we don’t have enough random micro-RW parties yet – led by Mark Aldridge, a serial candidate for various minor parties and as an independent. SA Best are rather hopeful, with five candidates – more than anyone except Labor and Libs.
Above is all from the Wikipedia article (am typing on phone), which isn’t quite complete – there’s paper candidates from Family Fist in some seats, so nowhere is as low as three. Still, if you live in Giles or Light and you’re left-wing, you’re stuck with Labor. If you’re on the right, you get to choose between old money, racist conspiracists, or Handmaid’s Tale / Wieambilla types. Choose your fighter.
Oh for crying out loud. The Greens actually do have a full set of 47… as do the “Australian Family Party” (the Bob Day version of FF, not to be confused with the Snelling / Kenyon version which has 35). The bloody Sarah Game party has 22. That United Voice thing and the Pallaras ticket from the upper house have a dozen each. Every single one of these muppets is going to lose their deposit, and drive up the informal vote. They’ve obliterated the previous record for lower house candidates.
I guess whoever updates the wiki article gave up in despair and went to the pub. Antony Green has counted it properly:
https://antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close-of-nominations/
New thread.