The first fortnightly YouGov-Sky News Pulse poll since the Liberal leadership change finds the Coalition narrowing but not closing its primary vote gap against One Nation, with the Coalition up three to 22% and One Nation down four to 24%, while Labor is down a point to 29% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor debuts at 33% approval and 38% disapproval. Albanese holds a 45-34 lead on preferred prime minister, compared with a 47-25 lead over Sussan Ley a fortnight ago.
Two-party preferred results have Labor’s lead over the Coalition narrowing from 54-46 to 53-47, while that over One Nation widens from 55-45 to 56-44. One Nation voters were asked to explain themselves: 42% professed “no confidence in major parties”, 33% enthusiasm for One Nation policies and 21% admiration for Pauline Hanson’s leadership, with only 4% citing the Barnaby Joyce factor. The poll was conducted February 17 to 24 from a sample size not specified in the report (UPDATE: Exactly 1500).
Essential Research has also published its monthly voting intention results showing Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up a point to 26%, One Nation steady on 22% and the Greens up two to 11%, with 4% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which leaves in the undecided component, is the first poll result in about a year to credit the Coalition with a lead over Labor, of 48% to 47%. This suggests a stronger respondent-allocated preference for the Coalition than it recorded at last year’s election: applying those flows to the primary vote numbers gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5.
The full report is not yet on the pollster’s website, but The Guardian reports further results include the striking finding that 58% were open to voting for One Nation, including 51% of Coalition voters and 33% of Labor voters. Anthony Albanese recovers some of the ground he lost last month, with his approval up three to 43% and disapproval down five to 48%. It is not clear if the question was asked of Angus Taylor, but The Guardian relates a finding that he had made 26% more likely and 19% less likely to vote Liberal. The poll was conducted “last week” from a sample of 1002 – more detail to follow later today (UPDATE: Full report here).
This week’s Roy Morgan poll maintains its impression of a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position under Angus Taylor, of which there was little or no sign in the DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog polls. The Coalition primary vote is at 24%, up half-a-point on the small sample result it published from its surveying immediately after the leadership change the Friday before last, while One Nation is down a point to 20.5%. This compounds the straight three-and-a-half point movement from One Nation to the Coalition recorded last week between polling conducted immediately before and after the change. Labor is down a point to 31%, with the Greens unchanged at 12.5%.
Labor’s lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is in from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. With the Coalition back in front of One Nation, the pollster has resumed providing a two-party result based on 2025 election flows, on which Labor’s lead is at 54-46 – a sharp contrast with Essential Research, in that the Coalition’s respondent-allocated preference flow is weaker than it recorded at the election. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1649.
Bludgers should remind themselves to take care and play the ball, rather than the man/woman.
Speaking of playing the ball, are West coast intending on doing that this year ..?
Miskal says:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 6:54 pm
C@tmomma
Thanks for confirming that.
So over a million dead, trillions spent, chaos in the region, a refugee crisis thats still ongoing, continued sectarian and religious conflicts, the re-implementation of child brides… all worth it.
And to think people thought I was simply putting words in your mouth.
Also interesting link; it doesnt quiiiite say what you think it does. Iraq is signing up to agreements yes, but its own social laws (such as child brides and anti LGBTQ laws) show these are being ignored. And also interestingly enough Iraq is supporting Iran atm…
Some further reading
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/iraq
And you would rather Saddam Hussein was still feeding dissidents to his tigers. Bravo!
And I don’t know what you think you’re achieving by lasciviously referring to the child brides repeatedly? Did Saddam not allow that? Do you have a solution in mind to stop it? How about you solve Afghanistan’s tradition of allowing the men to abuse young boys while you’re at it?
Honestly, trying to throw these things around, from a Western country is a wee bit like taking advantage of them yourself. Of course I despise it too. However, I don’t cynically use the poor young people subject to it over there to try and own me over here, like you have. Or try and own you in a similar way. At least in Australia we have outlawed that and genital mutilation. I guess that’s not good enough for purists like you, Miskal. Because ‘owning’.
I put in a bid for 10 No Trumps…
Albanese has cracked the greens in two, again. Just like he’s cracked the NLP in two, again. I don’t know why some people continue to underestimate this guy. Some seem personally invested in showing him as something he isn’t, because ‘reality’ obviously isn’t working right.
Meh.
The US has deployed direct from the US greater bomber power than the entire Australian air force. They get refuelled en route and back.
Each of the two carriers has a greater power than the entire Australian air force. I am not sure of the numbers but we can reasonably guess that the land based US planes in the region would be many times the equivalent of the Australian air force.
It is a remarkable demonstration of the continuing US ability to project military force globally. China, which is next in line, is not within a bull’s roar of that sort of capability.
Any pollie who has more than two negatively geared properties should recuse themselves from voting based on a vested interest. Chalmer’s could be on a winner with this one.
This is the same silly meme that was used in the Iraq War.
Hello AI? He’ll just walk off and declare victory. Does it all the time.
“Did Saddam not allow that? ”
C@T, your kidding me right.
Like you are aware that Saddam was a monster, but his government was pretty secular, not Islamic.
So actually no, child brides were banned amongst a whole bunch of other things.
Hell, if you read the links then youll see that women rights have gone backwards since the fall of Saddam.
Maybe do some research before spouting nonsense? Let me guess – you though Saddam was an Islamist didnt you.
You claim to care about Iranian women, while celebrating that Iraqi women now have it worse.
Again, you dont actually care about people beyond “my leader says X”.
“Yes Ghost, because thats certainly what recent events in the UK are showing”
Australia is not the UK, and Denton + Gorton is not the UK.
The Greens already had a “Muslims abandon Labor for the Greens, we hate Israel!” moment in the last election. And where did it get them? No significant change to their vote, a very significant change to their amount of MP’s and a need to find a new leader.
I think i just heard a fuse burst.
Khomeini may slant towards the hard-line but he has been known to back down. Their current president is from the reformist faction and was previously an advocate for the protests of 2018 and 2022. He even expanded the role of women in the cabinet and appointed a Sunni governor. He ultimately had to tow the line when it came to the IRGC but otherwise had a greater freedom than many expected with domestic policy. It’s not too dissimilar to the Albo-Trump relationship.
Pegasussays:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 6:33 pm
Supporting ‘illegal aggression’ against Iran ‘the worst thing’ Australia could do, international law experts say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/01/supporting-aggression-against-iran-the-worst-thing-australia-could-do-international-law-experts-say
______________________
Ben Saul downgrading an attack of Australian soil orchestrated by foreign armed forces as a “domestic criminal act” is a sycophantic capitulation to foreign powers proven to attack Australia unprovoked.
The morale of sailors on ships for lengthy periods tends to erode, particularly when they’re on action stations.
Trump should have sent in Frank Drebin… Police Squad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzGmVUFDomc
Mavis – Too often people complain about politicians owning investment properties but it is about the only class of investment that doesn’t create a conflict of interest. They can’t buy shares in companies which is the other major place where they could invest. They can’t hardly run a business. Some get away with owning a farm or something like that but there is not many options but property investment for most of them.
Ghost of Whitlam, you wouldnt be peddling the “The Greens only won in DG because of Muslims” line right?
You would of course have polling to support this claim right?
I mean, while theres a sizable Muslim voting base, its still predominately white
Miskal you’re not completely off base about Labor but the drive from Labour UK membership was also actively encouraged by Keir himself. His first speech he literally said if you don’t like the new Labour party then leave it. Then there was also the shaking off the fleas comment (I believe from a party staffer), and then after lurching to the right, he decided to play as if he was far right.
I don’t know if Albanese will be so openly hostile to the base, but the base isn’t as brainwashed as some appear here so there’ll be some push back in some form or another.
Newspoll from Ghost Who Votes
Federal Primary Votes: ALP 32 (-1) ON 27 (0) L/NP 20 (+2) GRN 11 (-1) Others 10 (0)
Albanese: Approve 40 (-3) Disapprove 55 (+2)
Taylor: Approve 35 (+12 compared to Ley) Disapprove 38 (-24)
Preferred PM: Albanese 45 (-4) Taylor 37 (+7 compared to Ley)
Update, article, no TPP given
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-angus-taylor-closes-the-gap-anthony-albaneses-popularity-plunges-to-new-low-amid-costofliving-crisis/news-story/e9f4b168c545ceb19ac22c74d4808c3b
Anthony Albanese has copped a hit to his personal popularity amid deteriorating economic and security conditions, as Angus Taylor stems the Coalition’s electoral bleeding and One Nation’s rise plateaus.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian showed Mr Taylor in a stronger position than Sussan Ley, who he replaced as opposition leader last month.
Ahead of MPs returning to Canberra on Monday, the poll reveals support for the Prime Minister and Labor has fallen over the past three weeks amid rising concerns about inflation, interest rates, government spending and national security threats.
Labor’s primary vote dropped to 32 per cent, down from 37 per cent in early October, while Mr Albanese recorded his worst personal performance result since last year’s election.
The Newspoll survey of 1237 voters, which was conducted between Monday and Thursday last week, showed the Coalition’s primary vote increasing to 20 per cent, up from the historic low of 18 per cent last month.
BS Fairman:
if one wanted to be particularly draconian about it, they arguably have a conflict of interest because they are responsible for making the taxation rules affecting investment properties.
Politicians around the world have been known to put their shareholdings into blind trusts managed by brokers so they can’t make any decisions about buying or selling them and, after a time, have no idea of what their portfolio is. I think that’s acceptable.
Current status of US Carrier Groups:(NSFW for Earlwood)
USS Nimitz (CVN-68)
Commissioned: May 3, 1975
Current Status: In Port (Bremerton, Washington); preparing for decommissioning
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)
Commissioned: October 18, 1977
Current Status: In Port (Portsmouth, Virginia); Planned Incremental Availability ongoing
USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70)
Commissioned: March 13, 1982
Current Status: In Port (San Diego, California)
USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)
Commissioned: October 25, 1986
Current Status: Deployed (Eastern Pacific)
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
Commissioned: November 11, 1989
Current Status: Deployed (Middle East / Persian Gulf)
USS George Washington (CVN-73)
Commissioned: July 4, 1992
Current Status: In Port (Yokosuka, Japan)
USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74)
Commissioned: December 9, 1995
Current Status: Undergoing RCOH (Newport News, Virginia)
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75)
Commissioned: July 25, 1998
Current Status: In Port, Preparing for RCOH (Norfolk, Virginia)
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)
Commissioned: July 12, 2003
Current Status: In Port (Bremerton, Washington); Undergoing Scheduled Maintenance
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)
Commissioned: October 7, 2006
Current Status: Deployed (Atlantic)
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
Commissioned: July 22, 2017
Current Status: Deployed (Middle East)
USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79)
Commissioned: Not Yet Commissioned (anticipated March 2027)
Current Status: Undergoing Sea Trials (Newport News, Virginia)
The capping of negative gearing. Expect rents to go up so people can positively gear their investment properties.
I’m not saying removing isn’t a good idea, but any market will adjust as offsets come into and out of that market.
Also dont expect a sell off, people who have investment properties deeply understand that the value is in the capital gains, the rents just offset the cost of buying the property in the first place.
Labor only 5 ahead of PHON.
So far Taylor hasn’t really landed.
Kevin Bonham: My 2PP estimate for this poll 54.1 to ALP (-1.9)
ALP vs ON 53.1 to ALP (-1.3)
WeWantPaul, Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 5:09 pm:
————————-
Thank you, WWP, for your response. It made me realise you and I are much closer in our views than I was thinking today. I guess taking people the wrong way is an occupational hazard, whenever we here on PB are discussing a complex network of states using immoral and illegal means to attempt to remove other state actors, which themselves have used immoral and illegal means to inflict carnage on disparate groups of populations, who themselves experience widely disparate global networks of supporters and opponents.
To be clear to you about where I stand, I deplore most of all the trashing of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation as a goal towards which the world should be striving. These hideous stockpiles not only keep humanity unnecessarily in dread of one possible form of global apocalypse. Their possessors use that very dread to deter enough of the rest of the world from intervening when they embark upon genocidal empire building (or empire revival).
Russia’s perfidy towards Ukraine is, in my view, the most explicit and drastic step we have seen in this tearing up of all our hopes of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. And where I most thoroughly agree with you is that the US and UK have been perfidious in not backing Ukraine to the hilt from 2014, the moment it was obvious to all that Russia was repudiating its obligations under the Budapest Memorandum.
Anyway, I’ll wrap this up by surprising you: I 1000% agree with you that the ongoing and escalating climate crisis is the planet’s most important issue for us all to address.
New thread.
B. S. Fairman:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 7:16 pm
While not a conflict of interest, where a pollie owns two negatively geared properties and intends to increase the number to three or more, she/he has a vested interest in the outcome of legislation that would limit their intended purchase to two.
Making assumptions about preference flows, I estimate the Newspoll 2PP at about 54% to Labor.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 7:21 pm
The capping of negative gearing. Expect rents to go up so people can positively gear their investment properties.
I’m not saying removing isn’t a good idea, but any market will adjust as offsets come into and out of that market.
Also dont expect a sell off, people who have investment properties deeply understand that the value is in the capital gains, the rents just offset the cost of buying the property in the first place.
________________________
Rents may rise as a “one off”, but will only see sustained increases will if demand for housing remains strong.
Pre-pandemic, it took about a decade of steady and predictable population growth (2009 to about 2019) for the housing market to adjust and real rents to start falling.
When people have commented on these changes in the past, the hand wave is that “housing availability was particularly tight” and “localised”. I would assess that current wrong population growth has made the national housing market tight.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-06/hockey-negative-gearing/6431100
Newy boy
Good post, imo.
C@tmomma @ #2552 Sunday, March 1st, 2026 – 6:35 pm
The Council on Foreign Relations ranked the 2003 Iraq war as the worst foreign policy decision in US history, but what would they know, they should have given you a bell Cat and you could have put them straight.
As a point of interest the overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1956 was adjudged the 4th worst decision.
A bad Newspoll for ALP and Albanese.
Only 5% away from PHON and L-NP and Taylor recorded much better numbers than they had under the leadership of Ley
Trump has authorised release of his diaper supply .. it’s an emergency after all..
Seems the problem is endemic.. like Australian Navy ships that continually breakdown while in the pacific.
As per reports
There was a ALP caucus vote to decide whether to oppose or support Iraq war 2.
Ever to please USA, Kevin Rudd was in the group that supported Iraq war 2, which I think included Kim Beazley. ALP leader Simon Creane led the oppose Iraq war 2 group and won the vote.
Hence, when John Howard government passed a motion to join the ‘coalition of the willing’, Creane’s Labor opposed it.
The way some Labor members/supporters are behaving in the current thread, it appears they were disappointed that ALP opposed Iraq war motion. Simon Creane will not be remembered as a good opposition leader. But the one thing he will be remembered for was to keep ALP on right side of the war.
I am not sure how Albanese voted in that Caucus vote.
Just STFU Penny Wong. You support a war started by the rapists of little girls, who are now bombing little girls.
“you wouldnt be peddling the “The Greens only won in DG because of Muslims” line right?”
You’ve obviously missed my point.
The Greens did get a huge boost from the Muslim community, it was a community they actively sought out. “Only Won because of Muslims” is your words, not mine, so don’t verbal me.
The point was that not every electorate in the UK is one with a big Muslim population, and the other was that the Greens Political Party already tried to seek out the votes of the Muslim population in Australia and it didn’t help them.
Senator Mark Kelly is calling on Donald Trump to step down, warning if he refuses, the consequences will be severe. He says Congress is prepared to move forward with impeachment
Fess
[The view from one person in Sydney’s Iranian community.
Like many in the Iranian community in Sydney, Mohammad Hashemi has mixed emotions.
The 33-year-old engineer said he was overjoyed at the news Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed amid US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, but also wary about celebrating foreign intervention and war in Iran.
“No one wants to see their country attacked by another country. But this was one of the biggest things we wanted to see,” Hashemi said from his home in Sydney’s Rhodes.
“So many Iranians were killed because of him. We were being held hostage by him and his regime, so it wasn’t a normal situation. We just want the regime to go.”
He said that a “majority of Iranians will be celebrating today” after Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death on Sunday.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sweet-and-sour-moment-as-iranian-australians-celebrate-amid-uncertainty-20260301-p5o6fd.html%5D
Thanks for this article. It is very complicated, and at the end of the day there are so many human stories that need to be told, in all their diversity.
Today we went to see a very out there play, which had my niece in it. Audience participation, and blurring between the roles the actors were playing, and the actors themselves making commentary about the way they were performing the play. “Breaking the fourth wall”.
Afterwards we went for a drinks.
A couple turned up, and the woman was draped with a flag. We asked her what the flag represented, she said Iran. The flag was lovely, and dated from the 1700’s. We talked a bit – I have many Iranian friends /students /acquaintances, so we exchanged notes.
The couple were really happy that we understood the difficulties they face now. When they left the pub they came over to us and said goodbye. And we wished them luck, which they were really happy about.
I have no idea where they sit politically, but there are real human beings who deserve our empathy.
I am so pissed off that this horrible conflict is being used by every person and their dog / cat to justify whatever beliefs they have held forever about how we need !NOW! regime change / a new political paradigm.
And of course, the revolution needs to be JUST RIGHT NOW, because of Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal bombing of Iran.
Using this bombing as the signal to start the overturning of the “Centrist” world order is really cynical shit, and completely ignores the different human experiences that this horrible bombing of Iran has caused.
This highlights how far out of contact with reality the Liberals are. Nuclear, Nuclear, when there are serious issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2osysX_tYe0