On top of a new federal poll and polls for Queensland (published yesterday) and South Australia (along shortly), DemosAU has a Western Australian state poll suggesting the One Nation revolution has been only slightly less transformative than on the eastern seaboard. After the last such poll in December neglected to include One Nation as a response option, this one has them at 17% (compared with 4.0% at the March 2025 election, when they contested 41 out of 59 seats), with most of the damage done to the Liberals (down nine to 21%, compared with 28.0% at the election) and Nationals (down two to 4%, compared with 5.2%). However, Labor has not escaped unscathed, being down five on December to 36%, compared with 41.1% at the election. The Greens are steady on 13%, up from 11.1% at the election. A conventional two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Liberals 57-43, essentially unchanged on the election result.
The poll finds Roger Cook viewed positively by 34% (down one on December), neutrally by 38% (steady) and negatively by 28% (up one). The respective results for Basil Zempilas are 28% (down two), 41% (up four) and 31% (down two). Results are also featured for Rita Saffioti, Treasurer and Deputy Premier (20%, 50% and 30%); former Liberal leader Libby Mettam (16%, 57% and 27%); Greens leader Brad Pettitt (15%, 56% and 29%); and One Nation leader Rod Caddies (14%, 55% and 31%). Cook leads Zempilas 43-30 on preferred premier, both down four points on December, with the balance going to “don’t know”.
Questions on the salience of issues and the best party to handle them point to health and hospitals as a vulnerability for the government, with 62% rating its performance negatively compared with only 8% for positive. Identical numbers were recorded for cost of living, which was rated the most important issue by 31%, slightly behind housing and homelessness on 34%. Health and hospitals was tied for third on 7% with immigration, followed by crime on 5%, with immigration and crime rated lower than is typical in other states. The poll was conducted February 12 to 23 from a sample of 969.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of WA state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
The health system is really under severe strain in WA atm. I have family working in the system and it is normal for people to be rostered to work during the day and then on call to work again the same night – it should not be possible but here we are – it’s the legacy of decades of societal neglect. I understand the WA Department of Health is undergoing a capability review now so hopefully this results in improvements down the track. If the government can sort out the various clusterfucks it may improve its standing.
https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/public-sector-commission/agency-capability-review-program
Interesting that Libby Mettam was thrown into the mix of leader polling? Is she likely to make a comeback? How is Basil travelling?
That is a 2PP result of 58.2%-41.8% in favour of Labor. I guess another landslide margin for WA Labor is on the cards.
2029 Western Australian Legislative Assembly results based on the latest DemosAU poll:
ALP: 36 seats
LIB: 14 seats
NAT: 5 seats
PHON: 3 seats
T-IND: 1 seat
How’s Basil travelling?
Well the rise of ON is because the voters are confused, he says.
And the feds aren’t helping.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/liberal-leader-shrugs-off-one-nation-surge-in-wa-and-blames-voter-confusion-over-federal-politics-c-21735972?fbclid=IwY2xjawQKPh5leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETJENU9kWm1YYW9JMU9NU3dac3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHpHX7sBZMFrOMLa0q4sKEENbtElmcdx5vgHaFY_2A1GELBQq7u7xbg0RO20E_aem_oEcQZszB9KpeQcbY_D3tVw
Holy fuck, the West Australian is a hard website to read.
@Thomas Brian Mutter:
Which three seats do you have One Nation winning? At the last state election Central Wheatbelt was their best seat on 9.3% primary, and there were half a dozen more at 8-9%. Given that they didn’t even run in every seat, I would find it far-fetched to be modelling them winning any particular seats.
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 2:29 pm
2029 Western Australian Legislative Assembly results based on the latest DemosAU poll:
ALP: 36 seats
LIB: 14 seats
NAT: 5 seats
PHON: 3 seats
T-IND: 1 seat
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I’m sick and tired of fixed 4 year terms between state elections.
Bring back the good old 3 year terms.
I could be dead by 2029.
I hope the Feds never go to 4 year terms.
Elections are like my footy Grand Finals.
We should have them every year.
@ticktock wa labor’s tpp is also unchanged in that poll so the idea that labor would lose 10 seats is a bit hard to believe anways, far more likely another status quo result at the next election from these polling numbers
@Ticktock I had Pilbara, Midland, and Mandurah going to One Nation.
Possible One Nation wins… hmm.
On the Labor side of the pendulum: Pilbara, Kalgoorlie and Collie-Preston all have margin <5% and are regional, so they're possibilities. Kalgoorlie in particular is a seat that Labor were lucky in last year: combined Labor+Green vote under 40%, but the right-wing vote was splintered between Lib, Nat, Kyran O'Donnell (former Lib MP) as an indie, plus ON, Christians and Shooters. Considering its history over the last few decades it could do anything. Pilbara has recent-ish form for voting for the Nats and an ex-Labor indie.
In the outer suburbs: the Metronet project could come in handy for Labor in quite a few seats, assuming they figure out the inevitable teething troubles. Butler and Mindarie (Yanchep extension), West Swan and Swan Hills (Ellenbrook line), Midland (new station opened last week – so much better than the dump it replaced), Forrestfield (Airport line), Darling Range (Byford extension), Southern River and Jandakot (TCL) are mostly seats the Libs want to win next time they form government. It's harder to run a "Labor doesn't care about you" campaign when they've spent $10b building new train lines everywhere – this applies equally to the Libs and One Nation.
Secret Harbour is my pick for an outrageous One Nation win in Perth, if their polling holds up. Paul Papalia may well retire (he'll have been in parliament for 22 years in 2029), and he'll have a decent personal vote including people who aren't necessarily Labor voters (he's ex-military, and the sort of tough-guy minister for prisons and police you'd expect to see in NSW). This area (Secret Harbour, Golden Bay and Singleton) had swings over 10% to the Libs last federal election after it was transferred from Brand to Canning. Also, it's whiter than the average (fourth last for non-English speakers, from the PB guide), which helps One Nation. Could all turn out to be a mirage, but if ON do run away with this seat in 2029, you read it here first. 😉
On the Lib / Nat side: most of the Lib seats are in the rich part of Perth, areas more likely to vote for a teal than ON. The exception: Murray-Wellington. One Nation came third here last year (3cp: ALP 42.4, Lib 41.2, ON 16.4), so a double-digit swing to ON that comes largely off the Libs would make life interesting. The fact I had to google who the MP was says how low-profile he is.
For the Nats: half their seats survived the 2021 WTFslide, so they're not going anywhere. These seats (or their predecessors) had absurd swings in 2001 without ON actually winning anything. Terry Waldron (MP for Wagin, now part of Roe) copped a 46.3% swing on primary votes and still held the seat, which has to be some kind of record. Something similar will probably happen in 2029. As for the three they won off Labor: Warren-Blackwood has a big Green vote so ON won't get lucky here. Geraldton is possible, but they didn't even run in 2025 (were they backing Shane van Styn?) so it's hard to say; also, Kirrilee Warr has been noisy about the demersal fishing ban, so that might help her against ON. This was 2.5% off being a Nat/Ind 2cp in 2025, so it goes on the list. As for Albany: the Libs were stupid enough to select a homophobic Christian conservative and handed the seat to the Nats for the first time in 70 years, so it'll be interesting enough even without ON (who lost their deposit).
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TL/DR: One Nation possibilities in Pilbara, Kalgoorlie, Collie-Preston, Secret Harbour (from Labor), Murray-Wellington (from Lib), Geraldton (from Nat).
Slightly less vibes-based than yesterday’s wall of text: all the seats where One Nation made the 3cp (in all cases with ALP and Lib), ordered by the ON vote. Just five of them. (Obviously this leaves out a lot of ALP/Lib/Nat contests in the country where ON came a close-ish fourth, as well as Thornlie where a right-wing independent came second after preferences.)
Darling Range: ALP 50.8, Lib 30.8, ON 18.4
Murray-Wellington: ALP 42.4, Lib 41.2, ON 16.4
Swan Hills: ALP 53.9, Lib 31.8, ON 14.3 (they got here from fifth!)
Mandurah: ALP 54.3, Lib 32.3, ON 13.4
Dawesville: ALP 48.2, Lib 41.5, ON 10.2
Apart from Swan Hills, they’re in a contiguous block S/SE of Perth, heavily overlapping the federal seat of Canning.
Taking the changes from the election to that poll as ALP -5, Lib -7, ON +13 (ignoring the fact they now won’t add up to 100):
Darling Range: ALP 45.8, Lib 23.8, ON 31.4
Murray-Wellington: ALP 37.4, Lib 34.2, ON 29.4
Swan Hills: ALP 48.9, Lib 24.8, ON 27.3
Mandurah: ALP 49.3, Lib 25.3, ON 26.4
Dawesville: ALP 43.2, Lib 34.5, ON 23.2
That’s three Labor seats where One Nation jump into second (most notably Darling Range), and one Liberal seat which becomes one of Kevin Bonham’s fancy new kinds of marginal (an extra 2.5% Lib-ON swing would knock the Libs out of the 2cp and probably hand One Nation the seat). Dawesville remains lineball.