DemosAU has a new federal poll for Capital Brief that provides little encouragement for the contention that deposing Sussan Ley has improved the Coalition’s position. It records a 28% primary vote for One Nation that equals its best-ever result from last fortnight’s YouGov poll, marking a four-point increase on the last DemosAU poll a month ago. The Coalition remains at 21%, with Labor down a point to 29% and the Greens down one to 12%. A seat projection has Labor in the range of 76 to 85, One Nation from 43 to 54, and the Coalition from nine to 20.
Where Fox & Hedgehog gave Angus Taylor a slightly positive net personal rating, DemosAU tips the other way in finding him viewed positively by 24%, neutrally by 48% and negatively by 28%. The respective figures for Anthony Albanese are 29% (up two), 25% (down seven) and 46% (up five), while Pauline Hanson is at 37% (up two), 25% (steady) and 38% (down two). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese at 37% (down two on last month), Taylor at 19% (three points higher than Sussan Ley recorded last month) and Hanson at 25% (down one).
The full report has fairly extensive breakdowns by demographics and vote at the 2025 election, plus questions on the salience of various issues and the best party to handle them. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1551. The pollster also had state voting intention results from Queensland yesterday, Western Australia today, and has another on the way for South Australia, probably later today (UPDATE: It appears this will be later this week). Results from the latter poll on upper house voting intention for the March 21 election were featured yesterday in InDaily. As if all that weren’t enough, we can also presumably expect the fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll from YouGov tomorrow.
Reporting on site with your MANPAD, Alabama?
“That’s wrong. It’s a swing of 6.25% that should be deducted from the current Labor 2pp of 55.22%, and so 55.22-6.25= 48.97% 2PP. Labor are closer to oblivion than people realise.”
I’ve probably used swing in a wrong context explaining the math in my calculations. I’m using it there as 6.25% total, so taking 3.125 off Labor and giving it to the LNP.
Plus this is just me fucking about in Excel, I might be entirely off base, especially since much of the calculation uses preferencing data that might be obsolete in the new era of the racist boomers surging to ON.
Chris Bowen says that Marinus Link will save “$25 – $36 on average every year for typical household power bills in Tasmania and Victoria”
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-marinus-link-reaches-financial-close-connecting-tasmanias-renewables-world
I can’t find it right now, but the last Tas Budget figures said that we were up for a bit over $100 million for Phase 1 of Marinus Link. It’s presently “in the forward estimates” ie unfunded or competing against the stadium.
Edit: found this which gives the current total cost estimate of Phase 1, yet different household benefit figures and underscores the reliance on Tas Network’s NWTD project to make it work, but again it doesn’t say who is paying for what. https://www.marinuslink.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Project-Marinus-costs-and-benefits-WEB.pdf
Next edit: Rockliff says Tassie’s cost for Marinus is capped at $103 million. https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/latest-news/2025/august/tasmania-secures-significant-agreement-for-marinus
The CFMEU was placed into administration in August 2024, when the administrator was appointed
In a few days it will be March 2026
The reasons the CMFEU were placed in administration were well documented
The appointments cover not only the Victorian Division but each State Division
In regards infiltration there are unsavoury people in all walks of life – who gave us sub prime lending?
The fight to negate any influence by these unsavoury people is never ending and will continue to be so
This:
“We’re out there Kirsdarke.
We’re coming to take our country back.
Ha ha.”
Goes with this:
PM evacuated from his home due to a “threat”.
I think it’s about time some people paused to reflect about their rhetoric and the effect it can have on the impressionable.
US women’s ice hockey team declines Trump’s State of the Union invitation
Olympics gold medal-winning team has politely turned down a request from President Donald Trump to attend his address in the capital.
https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/sports/2026/2/24/us-womens-gold-medal-ice-hockey-team-declines-trumps-state-of-the-union?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17719295192106&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fsports%2F2026%2F2%2F24%2Fus-womens-gold-medal-ice-hockey-team-declines-trumps-state-of-the-union
And just to clarify further, Fair Work Australia appointed an administrator FOLLOWING the introduction and passing of legislation in the FEDERAL Parliament (so enabling legislation)
That was the process – you do not just do these things based on “the vibe”
The administrator commenced his tenure in August 2024
Timmy
Why are you talking about “the math”?
Are you a US immigrant into Australia? Americans talk about “math”, or “the math”.
But Australians talk about maths, or “the maths? Please Explain!!
Socrates, Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 9:23 pm:
——————-
Socrates, good to hear! We went to St Mary’s in the city here, and it was somewhat sad but quite supportive. A few Russian Australians were there near us, showing solidarity. There is little love for Putin there that I could see.
Douglas and Milko, Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 10:03 pm:
——————————
I think quite a few of us are building ourselves a picture of this ‘Timmy’…
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been forced to evacuate from the Lodge, his residence in Canberra, while police searched the premises following a security threat.
A federal police spokeswoman said they responded to “an alleged security incident” at 6pm.
Albanese was only able to return to the heavily fortified house near parliament after 9pm, three hours after the first emerged.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-evacuated-from-the-lodge-over-security-threat-20260224-p5o56b.html
Douglas and Milko:
While I agree that Timmy does certainly give off some concern troll vibes, we are very Americanised in the media we consume in this country. I use loads of Americanisms when I speak and type, often without even realising it.
I think quite a few of us are building ourselves a picture of this ‘Timmy’…
And what sort of a grown man calls himself ‘Timmy’!?! Tim or Timothy, yes, but ‘Timmy’?
We Want Paul
“ You must rub shoulders with the fraffly people. Four in five Australians do not own an investment property.”
——
i tried to join the Australian Greens once, but because i didn’t own an”investment “ property, i did not qualify.
It’s a party for Rentier capitalists and Death to Everyone We Don’t Like. Bourgeois entitlement R Us. (And hello Akbar.)
The transformation of the Greens is, honestly, really So sad!
“Anthony Albanese evacuated from official Canberra residence due to security threat:
Prime minister moved from The Lodge to another location while investigation under way”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/24/anthony-albanese-evacuated-from-official-canberra-residence-due-to-security-threat-ntwnfb
C@tmomma, I think this above, also goes with ON polling 20%-plus. We may well have crossed a watershed to a land where the American MAGA-style politics of macho violence stalks, because the Right has let loose enough of the ‘firehose of shit’ to make enough people no longer notice or mind the stench.
We had the most loveable ginger tabby named Timmy. He was amazing.
Can’t help but get South Park vibes every time i see ‘Timmy’
Rakali
That was a joke about “not qualifying because i didn’t have an investment property “.
Davidwh
Back in 1970s when in lived in rural WA the lady I boarded with had a cat named Timmy
Wimpiest cat I ever met.
timmy the tamatetoe, oblivion or bust!
Our Timmy certainly wasn’t wimpy Rossmcg. Loveable but not wimpy.
Davidwh:
Did he have strong opinions on One Nation?
Sadly Timmy passed away long before ON came along to haunt us. One night we were returning home and Timmy raced out to meet us. I ran over him. 🙁
Davidwh
Later on we had a ginger fluffy named Floyd after his little pink nose. Gingers are special.
I find the incredible distortion that the creation and promotion of the Asset Class by the Right over the last 50 years, with policies that distorted basic things such as owning your own home, and turning them into an investment vehicle, which can then be used as a Sword of Damocles held over the heads of people who rent the investment properties that have been created out of those policies, via the sort of ‘bad landlord and property agent’ actions we have seen described here tonight, as one of THE most perverse political creations that I have ever come across. Instead of there being a balance between the number of rental properties being available to those saving to buy a home and those never able to afford to buy, and the number of homes sold to First Home Buyers and new builds being built for them, taking the pressure off the market so that it doesn’t become distorted, what has been created is Housing as an Asset, tightly held to make a profit on and to keep accumulating as much as you can to maximise that profit.
However, the comment by ‘Timmy’, trolling us or not, wherein he stated proudly that he was going to buy a 5 bedroom house and overstuff it with renters so he can donate the profits to One Nation, just takes the cake for perverse housing incentives and which are the result of the weaponisation of Housing. It shouldn’t be this way and hopefully via actions the federal Labor government takes in the upcoming Budget to reverse this diabolical trend, it will go in the direction of restoring the balance that is needed.
Rossmcg yes they are.
newy boy @ 10.19pm,
Exactly. Also, as was observed in one of the articles I think I posted in the DP, if this is what social media has done to many people’s brains, what will the coming AI revolution do? I shudder to think how many people will become completely untethered from reality, retain no common sense, and abandon all morals and ethics.
David:
Damn, I’m sorry to hear that. 🙁
It wasn’t my finest moment Asha.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/world/asia/china-japan-export-ban.html
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 8:53 pm
There are good and bad landlords and good and bad tenants.
_______________________
I had some bad tenants in my unit in Norlane. Probably the dodgiest suburb in Geelong.
A young mum who trashed the joint. I remember cleaning it up with my parents after she left. Had to recarpet and paint the walls.
Worst one was an Indian guy who had to spend some time in a regional area as part of his visa.
Someone kept throwing rocks through the windows at night. I reckon it was the 2 young teenagers just up the court who i had issues with when I lived in it.
Anyway he wanted me to put up security grills on all the windows which I baulked at, but it was just one insurance claim after another.
Ended up selling it. Was too much effort and the body corporate was a rip off. Helped pay off my current house, but I do regret selling it.
It was a bomb threat at The Lodge.
I hope that the AFP tracks down the deranged individual who made the threat, quickly.
“Ukraine is surviving Russia’s invasion. This is how it can win the war:
As the war grinds into its fifth year, world affairs editor Sam Kiley in Kharkiv looks back on a brutal conflict that has seen a complete shift in war technology and a stubborn Ukraine standing up to its much larger Russian neighbour”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-anniversary-how-zelensky-can-win-b2926291.html
So much for the Russian belief they would be greeted by Russian-speaking Ukrainians as liberators!
I do not understand the joke at all, sorry.
Rossmcg says:
Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 10:37 pm
Davidwh
Later on we had a ginger fluffy named Floyd after his little pink nose. Gingers are special.
中华人民共和国
We had a Ginger. Got him as a kitten. We called him “Stewart” after my cousin – who is also a Ginger.
WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 11:51 pm
Rakali
That was a joke about “not qualifying because i didn’t have an investment property “.
I do not understand the joke at all, sorry.
中华人民共和国
Same for me. I thought he was Ridgey Didge cobber.
Nobody is serious about peace for Ukrainians, who is not prepared to help Ukrainians expel every last Russian soldier from their land – preferably through diplomacy. This requires the world to make Putin fear continuation of his invasion more than he fears its ending in failure.
The lunatic element in Australian society just keeps growing and growing.
NB, as I mentioned the other day, your growing comfort level in saturating the forum with irrelevant comments about Ukraine is starting to bother me. Don’t make me mention it again.
Russia genociding Ukrainians and getting away with it is objectively not irrelevant to any country on this planet, including Australia. That’s not just me saying so – our government and the NZ government think so too (among many others).
So, genuine question: what comments of mine are actually covered by your warning?
No one else needs to be spoon-fed guidance on how not to get banned, and there’s absolutely no reason you should have to be either.
Okay, point taken. As George Constanza once said: “I can discuss other things.”
newy boy says:
Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 12:23 am
Okay, point taken. As George Constanza once said: “I can discuss other things.”
中华人民共和国
Your ticker is in the right place cobber. But listen to our host.
As George also said in the “Summer of George”. “I’m going to eat a big block of cheese the size of a car battery.”
newy boy at 11.34 pm and midnight
Perhaps what William means is focus on quality and elucidation rather than mere quantity, i.e. relentless repetition.
Almost everybody, even Modi and Xi, knows that Putin is a war criminal. Even Netanyahu knows it, as he does about himself. The whole problem about war criminals is one of accountability, not mere awareness.
The specific Putin problem is that political repression in Russia is so ruthless that there is little likelihood of a Milosevic scenario for Putin, i.e. him being arrested and sent to The Hague for trial, because that first requires political change in Moscow, which still seems terribly unlikely.
In Serbia there had been protests for years against Milosevic. Eventually students in the Otpor (Resistance) movement used rock concerts to publicise the extent of the tragic victims of Milosevic’s militarism. There is no space in Russian society now for such ingenious forms of resistance.
Here is the conclusion of the Independent article you linked above:
“But there’s no chance that the US could be relied on to keep watch over Ukraine, let alone send troops to fight if it were re-invaded. That has to be the job of Ukraine’s European neighbours and wider allies in the West.”
There is a slippage in that journalistic comment from reportage of the bleeding obvious to advocacy of the very unrealistic, in terms of the current political constraints upon Ukraine’s ‘allies’ in Europe, especially Germany.
Biden was never going to send troops to Ukraine. Poroti pointed that out 4 years ago. Nor is Merz, nor Macron, nor Starmer etc. Even bumbling Boris Johnson is now advocating only non-combat troop support.
Where does that leave Ukraine? Fighting a war of steadfast defence, rather than liberation, because without a lot of Western troops Ukraine cannot liberate all its occupied territory. And there will be no Western troops.
There were hopes early in Putin’s war that Putin’s blunder and brutality might lead to a Russian military collapse, with mass desertions, such as occurred in 1917. That has sadly not occurred, partly because the Russian military uses summary executions and torture to impose subservience. See:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7gw3l395ro
The tragedy is that this deplorable reality has been essentially unchanged for over three years, since the liberation of the city of Kherson. It is not going to change. The Europeans are unwilling to rebuke Trump for his indulgence toward Putin. Ukraine has to adapt to this painful situation, in which Europe (as Zelenskyy said at Davos) is an observer, not a key actor.
Many years ago the Italian socialist Antonio Gramsci wrote in his Prison Notebooks of the need for ‘pessimism of the intellect, and optimism of the will’. Even in bleak periods of utter reaction hope remains important, but one needs to remain aware of the huge obstacles now preventing justice.
It is unrealistic to suppose the world could “make Putin fear continuation of his invasion”. This was the terrible mistake made by Johnson and Biden in April 2022, when they vetoed a continuation of the Istanbul talks that might have ended Putin’s war. War has been Putin’s basic political support. It is not something he fears at all, because all the costs are paid by others.
For background see:
https://martindicaro.substack.com/p/four-years-of-forever-war-in-ukraine
https://abfang.org/wp-60db5-content/uploads/2025/03/Talks-that-could-have-ended-the-War-in-Ukraine_Samuel-Charap_Sergey-Radchenko_Foreign-Affairs_.pdf
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/four-years-russias-invasion-western-experts-see-putins-aims-largely-unchanged-prospects
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maria-snegovaya-2760b18_sergey-radchenko-on-ukraine-peace-negotiations-activity-7407473586321661953-RKW_
Dr D – “relentless repetition” of it may seem merely tiresome to you. But burying top-of-mind consciousness of it is deadly for others.
“It is not something he fears at all, because all the costs are paid by others.”
That has to change. At least most countries in Europe get that. They are stymied, though, by the 2 which refuse to.
Upnorth, thanks for the encouragement and advice.
Asha @ 6.53pm.
It has been reliable stated, by the Tasmanian Government and Opposition(s) that the Hobart Stadium and the Tasmanian Devils are supported by everyone in Tasmania.
Also, Tassie is a “Footy” State and should have had an AFL team before all those northern and western heathens.
Until they or their family get sick.
New thread.
It’s an interesting scenario, MaccaRB. I’m wondering if an AFL player gets injured will they be taken by helicopter to the mainland instead of Hobart Hospital?
Finally a good dive into why ON has surged.
The table of ON curious voters is chilling. This points to half of Australians wanting to burn the whole thing down. A failure of policy that gets to the heart of the end of the long 20th century dream of the masses, to no longer be beholden to the rent taker classes.
Of course the issue isn’t really just that the monied class has gotten back on top. This a population and energy problem. 8.5 billion people are trying to squeeze into the cities that only 50 years ago held 3.5 billion.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2026/feb/25/pauline-hanson-one-nation-popularity-lesson-for-progressives-ntwnfb