DemosAU: Labor 29, One Nation 28, Coalition 21, Greens 12 (open thread)

A record-equalling poll result for One Nation puts them just one point shy of Labor, and well ahead of the Coalition.

DemosAU has a new federal poll for Capital Brief that provides little encouragement for the contention that deposing Sussan Ley has improved the Coalition’s position. It records a 28% primary vote for One Nation that equals its best-ever result from last fortnight’s YouGov poll, marking a four-point increase on the last DemosAU poll a month ago. The Coalition remains at 21%, with Labor down a point to 29% and the Greens down one to 12%. A seat projection has Labor in the range of 76 to 85, One Nation from 43 to 54, and the Coalition from nine to 20.

Where Fox & Hedgehog gave Angus Taylor a slightly positive net personal rating, DemosAU tips the other way in finding him viewed positively by 24%, neutrally by 48% and negatively by 28%. The respective figures for Anthony Albanese are 29% (up two), 25% (down seven) and 46% (up five), while Pauline Hanson is at 37% (up two), 25% (steady) and 38% (down two). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese at 37% (down two on last month), Taylor at 19% (three points higher than Sussan Ley recorded last month) and Hanson at 25% (down one).

The full report has fairly extensive breakdowns by demographics and vote at the 2025 election, plus questions on the salience of various issues and the best party to handle them. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1551. The pollster also had state voting intention results from Queensland yesterday, Western Australia today, and has another on the way for South Australia, probably later today (UPDATE: It appears this will be later this week). Results from the latter poll on upper house voting intention for the March 21 election were featured yesterday in InDaily. As if all that weren’t enough, we can also presumably expect the fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll from YouGov tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

460 thoughts on “DemosAU: Labor 29, One Nation 28, Coalition 21, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. The table of ON curious voters is chilling. This points to half of Australians wanting to burn the whole thing down. A failure of policy that gets to the heart of the end of the long 20th century dream of the masses, to no longer be beholden to the rent taker classes.

    NSW recently went Labor after many years of Coalition. Under the Coalition, landlords could jack your rent up as much as they feel like, multiple times a year. Under Labor, landlords can still jack your rent up as much as they feel like, but only once a year, plus I’d like to acknowledge the traditional owners. So that’s your choice. Of course One Nation is surging.

    Not that ON would fix anything … but at least they’d f*ck sh*t up for some of the people who don’t let anything get fixed.

  2. But ON are selling a pup. They are the monied class as much as the next party. They wouldn’t go anywhere near making properties worth less.

  3. Goodness me.
    One Nation has definite policy principles that clearly appeal to the majority of Australians.
    Much, much less government.
    Fewer public servants.
    Less tax paid by everyone who is a taxpayer.
    No muslims.
    No non-whites.
    Hardly any migrants.
    Conservative culture war values.
    Pro nationalism.
    Tough on crime.

  4. Vile Shlomo says Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:27 am

    Not that ON would fix anything … but at least they’d f*ck sh*t up for some of the people who don’t let anything get fixed.

    Don’t you believe it. The people with money do fine under far right governments. It’s the people who are marginalised, the unions and those who speak truth to power who tend to be the victimis.

  5. So if my maths are correct, the only 3 elections where the Coalition is ahead of Labor in are the 2026 Victorian state election, the 2028 Queensland state election, and the next Tasmanian state election.

  6. Mick says:
    Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at 7:30 am
    Abolish stamp duty all together I say, it’s a stupid tax that increases the friction of changing homes to suit life’s circumstances and reduces liquidity in the housing market.

    Also eliminate realestate agents fees & establish a unregulated housing sales market.

    That is the real. Saving …

  7. It is absurd for journalists to blame a leader from 25 years ago for today’s failures. This narrative only serves to excuse current politicians who refuse to lift a finger to change things. Instead of reforming the system, subsequent governments have actually worsened the problem by increasing state dependency and relying even more heavily on immigration and the mining boom.

  8. One nation is Australia’s version of Trump and Trump is smashing it out of the park in the Middle East.
    Libs job has got tougher.

    Iranian regime is stuffed locals will reveal where they are hiding and USA and Israel will bomb them.

    One nation is about to scoop up labor votes as interest rate rise/s kick in.

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