A little less than six weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser today carries a South Australian state poll from Fox & Hedgehog that shows One Nation matching the Liberals on the primary vote while leaving Labor’s overwhelming dominance intact. The poll has Labor on 40% of the primary vote, down one on an earlier Fox & Hedgehog poll conducted immediately before Vincent Tarzia’s resignation as Liberal leader in early December, with the Liberals down two to 19%, One Nation up seven to 20% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Liberals is unchanged at 61-39.
Peter Malinauskas’s net approval rating is plus 31, down a point on December, while Liberal leader Ashton Hurn debuts at plus seven, compared with minus eight for Tarzia in the last poll (UPDATE: Malinauskas is up one on positive to 52%, down three on neutral to 22% and up two on negative to 21%, while Hurn is respectively at 20%, 37% and 13%). Malinauskas leads 54-22 on preferred premier, little different from the 54-18 lead he recorded over Tarzia. The poll also inquired about Carlos Quaremba, who at the time the poll was commissioned was lined up for the top position on One Nation’s upper house ticket, but has now been bumped to second to make way for Cory Bernardi. Quaremba recorded 6% approval and 9% disapproval, with 57% admitting to never having heard of him.
Personal ratings are also provided for several federal political figures, with Pauline Hanson scoring a remarkably strong 44% approval rating with disapproval at 34%. Anthony Albanese is at 35% approval and 44% disapproval, with Sussan Ley at 17% and 32%, Angus Taylor at 13% and 20%, Andrew Hastie at 15% and 17%, and Alex Antic at 7% and 14%. Entertainingly, the questionnaire included a fictitious name in John Morsett, presumably to serve as a benchmark for the worth of results such as those for Carlos Quaremba, and it duly produced very similar results, finding 5% thinking well of him and 9% poorly. The poll was conducted January 31 to February 8 from a sample of 904.
UPDATE: The full report has been published on the pollster’s website, with its now customary depth of detail. It finds Labor leading One Nation 63-37 on two-party preferred and Liberal leading One Nation 53-47, with a three-party preferred figure having it at Labor 54%, One Nation 25% and Liberal on 21%. Cory Bernardi records personal ratings of 15% positive, 29% neutral and 29% negative.
Thomas
We live in Bragg. I will be handing out HTVs on 21 March with quiet hope.
Certainly local Liberal MP Jack Batty has done nothing to justify a strong personal vote. There is also a much larger Asian (mainly wealthy Chinse Australian professionals) vote in Bragg now that would do the Liberals no favours in terms of recent events.
We shall see on the 21st.
Serious question about Cory Bernardi: How will he lead ON in the SA parliament if elected?
Bernardi is standing in the SA Upper House, consistent with his being elected as a Senator via the SA Liberal ticket. He has never won a lower house seat in Federal or State parliament.
So who leads the ON team in the SA Lower House? Won’t that person be the real ON parliamentary leader? We saw wqith the Greens and Adam Bandt that as soon as you get a Lower House MP(s), leadership decisions inevitably need to be made by them. The leadership mantle gravitates towards them.
Perhaps the ON slogan could be: “Help Cory Bernardi find full time work, vote One Nation!”
Bird of Paradox:
Personally, I’m looking forward to them renaming Giles “Yankunytjatjara”. (Yes, it’s mostly not Yankunytjatjara land, but the seat of Kaurna only occupies a tiny portion of Kaurna land and we may as well have a wide range of confusion.) Alternatively, the Ngadjuri could start spelling their name with a letter “Ŋ” like the Yolŋu.
For reference, you start a word with “ng” by making the exact same sound you do with a word that ends in “ng”, it’s just not normally the done thing in English. Pronouncing it “n” is the usual way to handle it if you can’t manage the “ng” at the beginning of the word. People do the same with the “rn” in “Kaurna”, which is a different sound again that isn’t in English at all – similar to an “n” sound but you curl the tip of your tongue backward.
As speakers of a language which distinguishes the vowel in “bun” from the one in “barn” from the one in “ban” from the one in “Ben”, though, I don’t think we get to complain too much about words from other languages being hard to pronounce…
Kaurna seems to be pronounced Garna. Who decided how Aboriginal words, which had never been written down, should be spelt?
Was it a government or academic decision?
Socrates
Until very recently I didn’t think that would be an issue as they wouldn’t have anyone in the lower house. Now I’m not so sure.
Bernardi will be boss no matter what.
Diogenes:
To grossly oversimplify, academic. In the early days it was usually missionaries, many of whom had what passed for linguistic training in eighteenth/nineteenth-century Europe. The actual native speakers of the languages in question always had a hand in it too; you can’t get good information in linguistics without them on board.
Diogenes:
Sounds like the same thing as Fraser Island being renamed K’Gari, but pronounced “gurry” because a language that never had a written form until it was transliterated by English speakers has somehow evolved silent letters. If you want people to use Aboriginal names over English ones, (a) accusing them of racism for not doing it and (b) making it needlessly difficult to pronounce is no way to do it.
As someone who’s not from SA and only ever seen the word written down, I assumed Kaurna would be something like “corner”, maybe with emphasis on the R – something like “corr-na”. (BTW, how badly does the schwa / upside-down E need a spot in English? It’s our most common vowel.)
While I’m at it – does Aldinga rhyme with “finger” or with “wringer”? The first is presumably where the double G in Narungga comes from, which actually would come in useful in English to tell words like that apart.
__________
Jiminy:
Nitpick: thanks to the last redistribution that’s in Stuart, not Giles.
There’s a Shire of Ngaanyatjarraku in WA, next door to the similarly spelt Pitjantjatjara and Yankunytjatjara (APY lands) in SA – it got that name when it was split off from the Shire of Wiluna in the 90s. The population is almost entirely Aboriginal, so nobody cares that it’s got a non-English name. Quite different from applying “Ngadjuri” to a bunch of white Anglo wheat farmers who can justifiably complain about being given a name they can’t pronounce by “academic elites” – that sort of thing is a free kick for One Nation types.
BoP
It’s like finger.
Jiminy Krikkitt
I was amazed decades ago when living in Alice Springs to see in the old hymn books (from the first half of the 20th Century I think) in the old Lutheran chapel at Hermannsburg (Ntaria) west of Alice some of the hymns in the local Arrernte language dialect, but more surprising was to see words beginning with ‘ng’ typeset as an actual ‘ŋ’.
The way I tried to practise that sound was in a song- from memory where the main line was something like ‘Ngulta Ngaraki Ngara’ though I may have made a total mess of the language and spelling and they may not have all been ‘ng’!
By the polls, it looks like the SA Liberals caucus will be meeting in the vintage PHOTO BOOTH in the Adelaide Arcade.
I just had a thought of what a photo-op of all the metropolitan Liberals would look like after the election and it being just Jack Batty from Bragg if even that.
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 12:19 am
I just had a thought of what a photo-op of all the metropolitan Liberals would look like after the election and it being just Jack Batty from Bragg if even that.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Kill 2 birds with the one stone in the PHOTO BOOTH.
I think they only do ‘black and white’ photos though.
TBM: going on the federal results in Adelaide last year, even Bragg would be chancy. The Libs won literally a handful of booths in the entire metro area.
A uniform 6% 2pp swing takes out all but six Lib seats: Finniss, Bragg (ignoring by-election), Schubert, Chaffey, Flinders and MacKillop (ignoring McBride leaving the Libs). On top of that: Finniss and Flinders have returning independent challenges, MacKillop has McBride, and One Nation would be a threat in most of the rest if their polling doesn’t turn out to be a mirage. It’s actually possible they get shut out completely.
Something like this:
Lib 2 (Bragg, Schubert)
ON 2 (Chaffey, MacKillop)
Ind 5 (Stuart, Narungga, Mt Gambier, Finniss, Flinders)
Who even becomes opposition leader if that happens? Independents aren’t a party, so not one of them (see the NT after the 2016 election). Hurn would have a case for it because of the 6-7 upper house Libs (including 4 not up for election), but leading a lower house bloc her party is 20% of and not even the largest party in would be… interesting.
@Bird of paradox
No idea. That would be a total mess. There would be a chance of a more conservative independent (perhaps Fraser Ellis – he used to be a Tory) joining One Nation and making them the opposition. But of course there is always a chance that the One Nation caucus would quickly fall to pieces (a. la. QLD 1998) and then the Libs would become the opposition. I ran some numbers using the 2022 Legislative Council to model the PHON surge and it gave them a chance in Hammond and Ngadjuri (the model didn’t account for Tony Piccolo contesting there) and some of the Independent-threatened seats in addition to the ones you mentioned above. PHON also were going to finish a clear second in the following safe ALP seats: Elizabeth, Giles, Kaurna, Light, Ramsay and Taylor.
Bird of Paradox
I hadn’t really thought about this possibility – then again in 2021 in WA no-one had predicted the Nationals would become the official opposition. Really if One Nation were smart (!) they would pile all their resources into this SA election as the publicity from becoming the state opposition would be priceless. Though of course it could all quickly go pear-shaped!
I went to a health debate yesterday between Picton (Lab) and Girolamo (Lib). It would have been organised a while ago but I did think to myself that the leader debates should probably be Mali, Hurn and Bernardi.
Federally even more so for the future.
It seems like once the Liberals changed from Vincent Tarzia to Ashton Hurn they have regained 7% of the 2PP vote, and looks to be regaining support in regional areas, and in metropolitan Adelaide. If the premier wasn’t Peter M. she would probably be within striking distance of government at least. It’s just that Labor has an incredibly popular and charismatic leader that they’re currently in the box seat to win by a landslide margin.
As a South Australian who is left of centre but currently appalled at the approach of Labor nationally and interstate to issues of anti-semitism, Israel and the right to protest, this is a disappointing election because there’s really no pressure whatsoever on the SA Labor government to show any even mildly progressive credentials. Mali will get off scott free for the absolute fiasco that was the Writers Week intervention, and there’s essentially no way to send a message beyond voting for the perennially ineffective Greens or any teal style options first. On the whole compulsory preferential voting is a great thing, but it’s times like these I wonder if there should be a “none of the above” option on the ballot.
I have my concerns that our current government in SA has some Minns-esque tendencies. We’ve already clamped down on the scourge of retirees protesting against Santos, the State govt clearly regards itself as dependent on the teat of fossil fuel extraction despite our outstanding record on renewables, and we apparently can’t tolerate a controversial Palestinian writer but are happy to vigorously promote a golf tournament which represents blatant sportswashing by a regime which recently cut a journalist up with a bonesaw for criticising them. We are addressing the housing crisis by building miles and miles of shoebox houses with no gardens in areas of the state with no water and no services, instead of growing up and building the medium/high density living that Adelaide is crying out for (with the city parklands being the closest thing any Australian city has to a Central Park style area in the middle of a city… surround the bloody thing with decent sized apartment buildings and watch the city flourish).
The solidarity and principles underpinned by the union movement and the Labor party of days gone by, including a desire to support global human rights, seem to be in a very deep sleep if they are alive at all.
Which means that it’s really not good for democracy that we have far right morons taking over the SA branch of the Liberal Party and making it ever more unelectable. What SA would consider voting for, I think, is a Turnbull-style Liberal Party that assures people that there will be no anti-abortion, anti-environment, anti-minority nonsense but some alternative economic policies and different priorities for development of the state. Instead what I see by way of advertising are the Liberals promising to dismantle our efforts on renewables (arguably South Australia’s greatest modern achievement) and pushing Trump-lite anti-‘woke’ crap. That just alienates moderates and offers the far right no reason not to vote for One Nation who have been pushing that barrow for a lot longer.
All in all what should be a fun election (Labor absolutely smashing the insipid state Liberal Party) is kinda depressing.
Patrick
Ashton Hurn isn’t anti-woke, well no more than Mali is. She’d be to the left of him on social issues.
You forgot the rise of One Nation. That’s the worst sign. I thought we were immune but we’re not. A simple anti-immigrant, anti-renewables, revert to the 80’s message is cutting through.
Diogenes,
She may not be, but if you have the misfortune to use Facebook the ads they are running are blatantly going for that Trump-ish angle. So those standing behind her are using her to look respectable while also courting the ‘secret racist/sexist’ vote via the usual channels.
I haven’t forgotten One Nation, it’s one of the reasons the LNP are a disgrace. There is no natural centre-right focal point so a decent percentage of people who will never vote Labor are now going to vote for whatever absolute nutters One Nation puts up.
Patrick
From what you are saying it seems more than likely that the Liberals will preference One Nation ahead of Labor where there is a ON candidate standing. If there are any electorates where the Liberals are third at the three candidate count this may end up electing One Nation candidates as happened in Queensland in 1998. It will be interesting to see the fallout from that federally, but also here in Victoria where I could see a few Nationals seats at risk if One Nation finish first (which I believe could happen on their current polling).
The subsequent preferencing decision itself could have effects especially if ON win SA seats – Liberals in that band of metropolitan Melbourne seats from Brighton to the north-east facing a ‘Teal’-style independent would be left defending a Coalition potentially helping establish a One Nation presence in Victoria’s lower house. Good luck with that!
We have been in SA in two campaign periods from memory – a Bannon win and Rann’s first win and it all seemed very civilized. I am interested in this election but like you I do have a sense of foreboding and sense that the campaign proper and election day itself could be unpleasant.
The Liberals cannot win the election, so it is in their long-term interests to try and stop One Nation getting a toehold in Parliament. Even John Howard realised that much. But I expect short-term thinking to win out, and the Liberals to help One Nation. One Nation seem likely to win one or maybe two upper house seats, but if Liberal preferences get one or two of them into the lower house that will be a crazy own goal, starting a whole new round of problems for the Coalition parties.
Having said all that I believe that One Nation winning seats in SA will benefit Labor here in November, and will in the longer term be beneficial for Australia as the Coalition parties will lose some defectors but ultimately distance themselves from One Nation (as a matter of survival). So it looks like South Australians are going to ‘take one for the team’.
Just seeing One Nation win any type of support in South Australia still shocks me as unlike in Queensland, and New South Wales, South Australia never really had a history of a particularly strong far-right base of support even when the Liberals were in government.
RR
I’ve heard Labor are expecting to pick up a lot of preferences of Lib voters ahead of ON. Perhaps 50:50.
I’ve also heard Mali has told his team he is aiming for the Libs not to win a single seat.
I’m not sure how they would be able to achieve no seats for the Liberals. That seems like a step too far for them. They can clean sweep Adelaide. There’s no doubt about that, but no seats at all for the Liberals seems a bit extreme. There are some seats that are just too safe for that.
TBM
Presumably they think One Nation will win those very safe Liberal seats.
The only time I think this sort of thing has happened was the very first NT Assembly election in 1974 (before self-government in 1978) – The CLP won 17 seats, Labor zero. Two independents won seats (one was Dawn Lawrie, whose daughter Delia later led Labor in the NT).
Total votes CLP 49%, Labor 30.5%, Independents 20.5%.
There is definitely a non-zero probability pathway for the liberals to win nothing. It’s not the most likely scenario, but the fact it’s not a totally ridiculous assertion, tells you all you need to know ..:
I usually assume that if it’s a Liberal vs One Nation contest then Labor preferences will help the Liberals out in most cases.
Id love to see the preference negotiations between Lib and ON.
Pyne v Bernardi round 236.
One Nation could be set to reap a huge financial windfall of up to $1.5m if polls putting them at 20 per cent of the primary vote prove accurate at March’s state election.
Under South Australia’s electoral laws, candidates and groups are entitled to public funding after an election, with the amount calculated based on percentage of votes.
Candidates endorsed by One Nation, who have no sitting MPs due to Sarah Game’s defection, will receive $6 for each vote in the first 10 per cent of the primary vote and $5.50 for every vote thereafter.
The latest polling data shows One Nation just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals at 19 per cent – both well behind Labor at 40 per cent.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/how-surging-polls-could-hand-one-nation-a-15m-sa-election-funding-boost/news-story/e9aaddd3afee931ca408ea46df9dc57d?amp
The most one-sided election result in South Australian history occurred in 1993, in the aftermath of the state bank collapse. That election saw the Arnold Labor government wiped out, reduced to 10 seats in the 47-member House of Assembly and 39 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.
It’s a low watermark for Labor in a state where it has an otherwise extraordinarily strong record of election wins, and the party would love to be able to shake the dubious honour of having suffered the state’s worst ever election defeat. In 2026 it may get that chance.
Opinion polls suggest Labor may soon be on the winning side of a record-setting election, while the Liberal Party braces for a potentially catastrophic loss. The opposition has had three leaders in this term of parliament, with the most recent switch occurring less than one hundred days before the voting period begins. Ashton Hurn hasn’t even had the chance to prosecute her case as Liberal leader at the dispatch box in question time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/preview
One Nation’s South Australian leader Cory Bernardi has called on Ashton Hurn to clarify her party’s position on the voice to parliament, as the Liberals announce a new policy to redirect funding into “frontline programs”. In an op-ed to be published on Tuesday evening, Mr Bernardi, who is One Nation’s lead upper house candidate at the state election, said the Liberal position on the voice had been “unclear”, while saying One Nation would commit to abolishing the state voice to parliament, which so far has seen low voter turnout. “The situation is quite clearly a farce. In fact, I would go as far as to say it’s an outrage. (Under One Nation) There will be no reform, no tinkering, just the complete and comprehensive abolition of the body,” Mr Bernardi wrote.
Mr Bernardi told The Advertiser the voice was a “classic sop to symbolism over practical outcomes”.
“The lack of interest by the people it is supposed to give a race based voice to is testament to that.”
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/liberals-target-voice-and-treaty-as-one-nation-attacks-partys-wishy-washy-stance/news-story/61b99390d7af8b843c315e45dda4193b?amp
Newspoll on SA Election
Labor 44%
One Nation 24%
Liberal 14%
“The Liberal Party risks being wiped out in South Australia after an extraordinary Newspoll showed it could fail to hold a single seat as One Nation surges to a 10-point lead over the opposition, guaranteeing Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas a thumping victory.
…
The key question will be whether One Nation can sustain its support in coming weeks or see it pared back as happened to former senator Nick Xenophon who went from being preferred premier to failing to win a seat at the 2016 South Australian poll as voters focused more keenly on his lack of policy.
…
The Newspoll throws up a possible scenario where there will be no formal opposition at all, with Labor and independents holding all of the state’s 47 Lower House seats, unless One Nation can make gains against entrenched country independents.“
– David Penberthy, The Australian