Newspoll: Labor 33, One Nation 27, Coalition 18, Greens 12 (open thread)

A worst-ever result for the Coalition and Sussan Ley from Newspoll, which dispenses with two-party preferred.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll surpasses the recent RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll as the Coalition’s worst and One Nation’s best result to date. The former lose three points from the Newspoll three weeks ago to hit 18% (broken out to 15% for the Liberal and 3% for the Nationals, while One Nation is up five to 27%. Labor is up a point to 33%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. As a result of One Nation’s dominance over the Liberals, “Newspoll has not generated a two-party-preferred calculation”. My own estimate based on preference flows at the last election has it approaching 56-44 to Labor.

Sussan Ley is down five on approval to 23% and up six on disapproval to 62%, which The Australian identifies as the worst result for a major party leader in 23 years. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 53%. Albanese hold’s a relatively modest 49-30 lead as preferred prime minister, shifting from 51-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, a change from recent practice when polling was conducted mostly during the week, from a sample of 1234.

UPDATE (10/2): The Australian reports further detail from the poll in which those who voted for parties other than Labor and One Nation were asked how they would allocate their preferences. Forty-three per cent of Liberal voters said they would favour One Nation and 33% Labor, with 24% saying they did not know or that they would follow how-to-vote cards. The corresponding numbers were 70%, 6% and 24% for Nationals voters, 1%, 91% and 8% for the Greens, and 32%, 53% and 15% for others.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,376 thoughts on “Newspoll: Labor 33, One Nation 27, Coalition 18, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Omar Comin’ @ 10:33 pm

    You probably don’t even remember when the Australian men’s basketball team threatened to forfeit against the Dream Team in Barcelona because Magic Johnson had AIDS.

    No, I don’t remember that. So you may have a point. But there is sport, where everything is performative … and then there is real life, where things are not.

  2. Player One well yeah I guess you have a point too.

    What about Crocodile Dundee III, Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles? I suppose that’s not real life either.

  3. Omar Comin’ @ 10:48 pm

    What about Crocodile Dundee III, Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles?

    I didn’t think, after watching yesterday’s horrific events, that I could be any more ashamed about being Australian.

    But you managed it 🙁

  4. Word is that Chris Minns hit a bike rider today. His wife may or may not have been driving the car.

    In all seriousness hope you recover well AE.

  5. A longish read, for anyone interested in how the EU is planning to get Ukraine into the Union, in spite of entrenched opposition to this from Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán:

    “5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027:
    Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/5-steps-ukraine-eu-membership-2027/?fbclid=IwY2xjawP3zGZleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETEyWmE3cUlYVVB5REtMOTdRc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHhJiaSLajwW3Kj5tVj2KTNJYI_GZ0jCWWQs1YCXDC8CqTtmeL-JSrxrGaFjN_aem_51wzvuD-V2C4hutdB2Sn1Q

    The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year, as Brussels tries to shore up the country’s position in Europe and away from Moscow, according to 10 officials and diplomats…

  6. I’d also say the “Who do you blame for rising interest rates?” question in the latter article (with response options essentially limited to “The Government, The RBA, or Both”) verges on push-polling.

    Well, they couldn’t say, rich old superannuants who religiously watch Sky, could they?

  7. Fwiw, I heard Jane Hume is being touted to be Angus’ Running Mate and hence new Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Smart move, and probably why she has been doing running commentary this week.

  8. Geez AE just read about your injury cobber. Hope you get back the bike shortly!!

    Having had my Achilles off and then screwed back on 7 months ago is still putting some limits on movement.

    Though the strangest sensation was generated in my heel when at -38degrees the screws seemed to freeze up.

    All the best AE.

  9. Ah, Andrew_Earlwood,
    I can see you going down the same path I did…supremely fit and doing all the physical things…until your body finally gives you a message that you can’t ignore…it’s worn out and can’t take it any more! 😆

    Until such time, get well soon and keep on trucking.

  10. Don’t go to America, UpNorth, you’ll ding when you go through the metal detector and you’ll be on the ground so fast, with Border Patrol swarming all over you and a big, vicious German Shepherd breathing down your neck, you won’t know what hit you! 😆

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 10, 2026 at 11:52 pm
    Fwiw, I heard Jane Hume is being touted to be Angus’ Running Mate and hence new Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Smart move, and probably why she has been doing running commentary this week.
    中华人民共和国
    Sir John Gorton was Senator and PM before his switch to Higgins.

    Otherwise I am unsure if a Major Party has had a Leader or Deputy from the Upper House since the war??

    For this exercise I’m not counting One Nation or The Greens.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 12:00 am
    Don’t go to America, UpNorth, you’ll ding when you go through the metal detector and you’ll be on the ground so fast, with Border Patrol swarming all over you and a big, vicious German Shepherd breathing down your neck, you won’t know what hit you!
    中华人民共和国
    I ding already! Went through HK security the other day in transit. My doctor has kindly supplied x-rays that I can show the good staff.

    As for the US. I’m not going there until the Orange Shit Gibbon and his spawn are banished. Ding ding!!

  13. Jane Hume reminds me of Gina Riley doing bits on Fast Forward. Except Gina has more self awareness.

    What an empty vessel. Angus Taylor & Jane Hume would be one of the worst LOTO pairings in modern history.

  14. Ghost Of Whitlam says:
    Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 12:31 am
    Jane Hume reminds me of Gina Riley doing bits on Fast Forward. Except Gina has more self awareness.

    What an empty vessel. Angus Taylor & Jane Hume would be one of the worst LOTO pairings in modern history.
    中华人民共和国
    Big Girls Blouse was great when they did the Liberal Skit! Prue and Trude. “Apparently Harold Holts been found on a beach in Japan and he is running again.

    Is he a wet or a dry?

    I don’t know – depends if he had a towel”

    https://youtu.be/9CtghCwnOM4?si=j98ZjI6fF0gcdy6F

  15. William Bowesays:
    Tuesday, February 10, 2026 at 4:58 pm
    Speculation: like all Government departments, the Federal Department of Finance drive an extremely hard bargain on price negotiations and the landlord was not happy with the renewal terms?

    Well, let’s ask them.

    Ross Ciano, the senior minister at the neighbouring church, said the decision to discontinue the lease was made by the Sydney diocese, which owns the property. He told Guardian Australia the lease was up and there were multiple reasons why it was not renewed. But Ciano confirmed the major reason was the protests.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/15/anthony-albanese-closes-grayndler-electorate-office-marrickville-palestine-protesters

    Granted that he also told the ABC, rather oddly to my mind, that it was done for no very particular reason.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-15/nsw-sydney-prime-minister-anthony-albanese-marrickville-office/105773658
    ===============================================
    In the interview I referred to the Minister simply stated that the lease was not renewed because the church determined that it could make better use of the property. He did not go into further detail on that aspect. However, he did make it clear that the decision was not related to the protests.

  16. William Bowesays:
    Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 2:08 am
    Well, that’s obviously not what he told The Guardian. It would be big of you to acknowledge that Boerwar was not, in fact, “lying”.
    =================================================
    OK fair enough. I accept that he may have been misinformed. I guess there is also a non-zero chance that I am the one misinformed.

  17. A few of my friends went to the Sydney march. Here’s the first’s recount of events.

    “I was at the Sydney Town Hall protest last night (Mon 8 Feb).
    It was a peaceful demonstration, until the police decide that it wasn’t.
    I walked away very disappointed in the behaviour of the police and the way they managed the crowd.
    Today, I’ve been watching what the mainstream media has been saying about the Sydney protests.
    I wasn’t going to post anything about being at the protest. But I feel I need to share my experiences and observations.

    The main things I took away during the 3 hrs I was there:
    1. There were so many of us!
    I would agree with the 20,000+ figure. The place was packed! I didn’t expect so many people to turn up.
    Some friends didn’t go because they were afraid of what the police may do. That uncertainty was a bit too much for them.
    I suspect more would have joined if not for that uncertainty.
    Many people also mentioned they were there because of the way the Minns gov was tweaking our laws to make it harder for legal protest.
    I heard a number of conversations around me mention the United States and how civil rights had slowly eroded there, and that people were worried it was starting here (basically, death by a thousand cuts).
    I heard other conversations about how frustrated people were that they were being labelled anti-semetic simply because they didn’t support Israel’s actions on Palestine. Anti-Zionist is not the same as antisemetic.
    They hated that the horror and sadness of Bondi shootings were being politicised, and protesting President Herzog being in Australia had nothing to do with the wrongness of what was done to people at a community celebration.

    2. The diversity of protesters.
    There were lots of families with kids and teenagers, old people, people of all ages, people in wheelchairs, some with dogs in carriers, many religions (I saw a number of signs saying the person was Jewish), genders, lots of business suits and dress who had come straight from work (like I did).

    3. It was a peaceful protest.
    Even with such a massive crowd of 20,000 people.
    The police cordon forced us all into the Town Hall courtyard and surrounding footpaths.
    We had a solid wall of police around the whole Town Hall. Including with police horses.
    Those who know the site will understand how big an area that is and how many police that would take.
    It was a lot of police.
    It was a bit intimidating, to be honest.

    4. The police response was far more aggressive than warranted.
    I’ve been to small, medium and very large protests before in Australia. The police have nearly always been fine with moving crowds along, even when we weren’t moving as fast as they wanted.
    This time round, I was surprised at the tactics used by the police (pepper spray, kettling which is pushing one area of people into the rest of the crowd so we had nowhere to go but on top of each other, running at protesters), and how quickly they moved to violence and aggression.
    I’ve now learnt that the quickest way to get a large, packed crowd to move is to use pepper spray straight into people’s faces.
    One minute, we were standing around, wondering what was going on, what was happening (as many of us couldn’t hear much), just talking to those around us.
    The next minute, the family standing beside me said the police had started using pepper spray on people in front of us.
    I then saw a young guy walk past me with his face completely wet and looking like he was crying. I asked him if the police had sprayed him with pepper spray. He said yes.
    (I later saw him on the ground, crying in pain while someone else was washing his eyes and face with water. I saw a photo of him in one of the news reports with women standing around him, protecting him, to give him some space).
    I then saw a women in her late 70s / early 80s walk past me, followed closely by her 20 yo granddaughter. Both looked to be in tears. They had been pepper sprayed.
    That surprised me.
    I thought, if they can spray an elderly lady, then what else can they do?
    That’s when I started to move away, uncertain what was happening in front of me.
    Even though I wasn’t very close to the police who were spraying, they used so much pepper spray, that it gradually spread through the air and many of us began to cough and get sore eyes.
    As I was finally walking out, I walked past a family of 5 women, with the mum holding her toddler daughter who was wearing a face mask. I asked if her daughter had been sprayed and is that why she was wearing a mask?
    Mum said no but she didn’t want to chance her daughter breathing anything in, so put it on her just in case.
    I now also know that chocolate does NOT taste good when it is mixed with the fiery taste of pepper spray on your tongue and back of your throat. Who knew??
    Thank you, NSW Police for that learning .

    5. The video of the praying Muslim men being removed by police occurred right near where I was eating dinner (see my last video, of when the group was moved down the stairs).
    The men were praying in an area of Town Hall after the majority of the crowd had left, and they were not in people’s way.
    I had just walked through that same area about 10 mins beforehand, and there were about 5 people in it, so pretty empty. I then sat down to have dumplings for dinner at the restaurant located at the bottom of the Town Hall steps (I had to get the taste of pepper spray out of my mouth, didn’t I? ).
    Soon after, a large bunch of people stood at the top of the stairs, just hanging around, talking, but not doing anything much. When all of a sudden, there were lots of shouts and cries from the group to stop that. Don’t do that. Leave them alone.
    Based on the videos posted, I now realise that it was people trying to stop the police from forcibly removing the praying men.
    Until the police arrived, there was no problem with the men praying. No-one was complaining about them. No-one was yelling at them to move. People had been walking down the stairs before the large group arrived (who I now know were herded there by police, pushing them out from other parts of Town Hall).
    People had been slowly leaving anyway, as it was late, getting dark, many of us were tired and sweaty (it was very humid. Many of us had been using hand fans and paper to cool ourselves down), and most of us were ready to head home.
    If the police had left us alone, most of us would’ve been gone in the next 20-30 mins. Even I could tell that most people were heading home.
    The physical pushing and aggressive tactics by the police were really not needed.

    6. The biggest thing I’ve come away with was the comradory and unity of everyone protesting. Especially when there were so many of us!
    And how sad and disappointed I am with our police who gave such a disproportionate response. It was not needed.

    7. The photos and videos attached are what I took at various times throughout the night.
    It was a good peaceful protest.

    Until it wasn’t.”

  18. HJere’s the second


    “I was at the Sydney protest last night and it was off the wall. Cops unhinged, huge numbers of people – the footage you’re no doubt seeing the violence and police manoeuvres was three or four hours after the start, and many had gone home. But I’d say it might have been 20 000 people on a sticky hot Monday evening.”

  19. “Fwiw, I heard Jane Hume is being touted to be Angus’ Running Mate and hence new Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Smart move, and probably why she has been doing running commentary this week.”

    @C@tmomma

    The token woman deputy so Angus Taylor can pretend to have some flakey cover for chopping down a woman leader. I wonder if Taylor will let her choose her portfolio. Peter Dutton didn’t when Sussan Ley was deputy so it wouldn’t be surprise me if he did the same to Jane Hume or put provisions on her that she can’t choose (treasurer, finance, trade etc).

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