Morgan: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Another week, another dizzying new peak for One Nation. Also: a state by-election on the way in Victoria.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll, which was published on Monday, maintained the seemingly remorseless trend of recent months in recording One Nation up two-and-a-half to yet another new high of 25%, with the Liberals down two to 18% and the Nationals steady on 2.5%. Labor’s primary vote was unchanged at 30.5%, while the Greens were down half a point to 12.5%. On the arguably redundant two-party preferred measure, which lines Labor up against a now defunct Coalition that is actually running third, Labor leads 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, in from 56.5-43.5 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401. The accompanying release also includes accumulated monthly breakdowns on primary vote and two-party preferred by state, gender and age cohort.

I will also make note here that a Victorian by-election is on the way after Liberal MP Sam Groth announced he will resign next week as member for the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean, a month after quitting as deputy leader and announcing he would not contest the November election. Labor will surely have no interest in fielding a candidate, and the seat has never been strong for right-wing minor parties despite having the state’s oldest age profile. A One Nation candidacy would nonetheless be of obvious interest, and a Climate 200-backed candidate for the corresponding federal seat of Flinders cleared 20% at last year’s federal election, so stay tuned for further developments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,690 thoughts on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Niki Savva.

    Meanwhile, leadership changes loom. Senior Nationals say David Littleproud is safe for now. Senior Liberals – except Sussan Ley’s numbers man, Alex Hawke – agree she is toast.

    If Angus Taylor has the numbers next week, likely boosted by another devastating poll, he will use them. If not, he aims to strike before the budget in May. Like many others, Taylor is in no rush to reform the Coalition. He wants freedom to zero in on the economy – the one issue that can unify the party – without worrying what the Nationals might do.

    The right, and certain moderates, hope Taylor can do better than Ley. They stop short of predicting he will succeed. One senior conservative put it this way:“Taylor will be our next opposition leader, but Hastie could be our next prime minister.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ley-is-toast-and-the-coalition-aren-t-just-on-a-break-this-bust-up-is-serious-20260204-p5nze4.html

  2. What strikes me as weird (among many things) is how often there are photos of the men associated with Epstein. Surely these dudes would have known that they were doing something shadey and asked for no photos, or if they were taken that they be deleted.

  3. I’m still blown away at the content they were putting in emails rather than having in person or phone conversations. I reckon it points to a belief they were untouchable. Their wealth and their connections meant no harm would come to them.

  4. Blind Freddy could see this coming…

    A new United States congressional report openly contemplates not selling any nuclear submarines to Australia – as promised under the Aukus agreement – because America wants to retain control of the submarines for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan.

    The report by the US Congressional Research Service, Congress’s policy research arm, posits an alternative “military division of labour” under which the submarines earmarked for sale to Australia are instead retained under US command to be sailed out of Australian bases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/05/not-delivering-any-aukus-nuclear-submarines-to-australia-explored-as-option-in-us-congressional-report

    ——————–——————-

    It was always the plan… answer dump Aukus & spend the money on future social infrastructure where it will benefit the country

  5. Confessions @ #3 Thursday, February 5th, 2026 – 5:43 am

    I’m still blown away at the content they were putting in emails rather than having in person or phone conversations. I reckon it points to a belief they were untouchable. Their wealth and their connections meant no harm would come to them.

    Confessions @ #3 Thursday, February 5th, 2026 – 5:43 am

    I’m still blown away at the content they were putting in emails rather than having in person or phone conversations. I reckon it points to a belief they were untouchable. Their wealth and their connections meant no harm would come to them.

    You can bet there were plenty of personal and phone conversations. What we are seeing is the bit of the iceberg that shows about the surface.

  6. What have the Liberals been smoking? Andrew Hastie is their next Prime Minister!?! The guy is as substantial as a puddle on a 45C day. Also, I would like to know how that Liberal squares the circle between the split Liberals and Nationals, which the ‘new’ Opposition Leader, Angus Taylor, will solidify apparently and the number of seats that are needed to get back into government? Will Hastie form a Grand Coalition, unsolidified, between the Liberals, the Nationals and ON? How will what remains of the Moderate Liberals react to that? What about the Teals? Surely the Moderate Liberals feel more kinship with them now than the Conservative Liberals, the Nationals and ON? What about Pauline’s aim to replace the Coalition entirely with her own Lower House MPs? What about the electorate not caring for any of it?

    So many questions. So few answers. So much spin. Like drowning men grasping for twigs in a whirlpool.

  7. Confessions @ #1 Thursday, February 5th, 2026 – 5:13 am

    Niki Savva.

    Meanwhile, leadership changes loom. Senior Nationals say David Littleproud is safe for now. Senior Liberals – except Sussan Ley’s numbers man, Alex Hawke – agree she is toast.

    If Angus Taylor has the numbers next week, likely boosted by another devastating poll, he will use them. If not, he aims to strike before the budget in May. Like many others, Taylor is in no rush to reform the Coalition. He wants freedom to zero in on the economy – the one issue that can unify the party – without worrying what the Nationals might do.

    The right, and certain moderates, hope Taylor can do better than Ley. They stop short of predicting he will succeed. One senior conservative put it this way:“Taylor will be our next opposition leader, but Hastie could be our next prime minister.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ley-is-toast-and-the-coalition-aren-t-just-on-a-break-this-bust-up-is-serious-20260204-p5nze4.html

    In reality, both Taylor and Hastie are very ordinary politicians. Even though I can’t stand her, Ley is far more substantial than both of them.

  8. Sceptic,
    A Congressional Report is not policy. It’s like The Greens getting the PBO to assess a position of theirs so they can parade it around. There are always sceptics who use this tactic. The reality is that the PM and the DPM have categorically stated that the scenario you refer to will never happen while Labor is in power. We are sovereign.

  9. Won’t be bullied, will wait out Trump term for trade deal, Doval told Rubio
    The Modi government had conveyed to the US in early September 2025 that it was willing to wait out the Trump presidential term if needed on the India-US trade deal. This tough line was conveyed to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by India NSA Ajit Doval, according to a Bloomberg report. The report on the meeting and the mellowing down of Trump and his aides after that gives a new perspective to the debate over the India-US trade deal.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-was-willing-to-wait-out-donald-trump-term-on-trade-deal-ajit-doval-told-marco-rubio-narendra-modi-us-india-agreement-2863103-2026-02-04

    “Bloomberg is the first to report about the meeting in early September 2025 between Indian National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in which the Indian government conveyed its tough line. The meeting came against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s relentless attacks on the PM Narendra Modi-led government and the 50% American tariffs on Indian exports, which was one of the highest in the world.

    The report gains significance after Trump jumped the gun to announce the India-US trade deal, and his aides promoted it as a big victory for the US, particularly its farm sector. Agriculture and dairy are the two sectors on which India had drawn a red line.”

  10. ajm:

    The Treasurer put it plainly on election night. Hastie committed the biggest political blunder he’d ever seen in opposing the tax cuts.

    I think that says it all.

  11. While the 2PP vote for Labor looks impressive, a Labor PV stuck on about 30% surely spells trouble, even with the chaos and incompetence in right-wing ranks. I think that the Labor PV may decline a little more, due to the interest rate rise, ongoing intractable problems with housing and CoL, and people getting weary of Albanese and his timidity. Surely an ALP PV starting with a 2 would put ALP majority government at risk.

    Something needs to be done with the tax system, to take money out of the economy and to address the growing budget deficit. There are so many obvious ways this could be done, with measures that would target high wealth retirees and others who don’t need hand-outs from the tax payer. The capital gains tax discount, tax deductability of depreciation on rental property, and the use of franking credits by the wealthy should all be cut back. Means-testing of benefits like child care also should be done.

    Some populist measures on immigration are also needed. Do we tighten family reunion entry? Further tighten student visas? I fear that a failure to be perceived to be doing something to curb migration will result in a further decline in support for the ALP. There is zero chance of Labor losing my own federal electorate of Newcastle, but I’d fear for the electorate of Hunter based on current polling.

  16. Sussan Ley beat Alexander Downer’s 252 days as Liberal leader a couple of weeks ago. If she can hang on another few weeks (until March 2), she’ll pass Brendan Nelson. After that, it’s nearly a year until she catches up with Billy McMahon’s term, which seems very much beyond reach. Also, Billy McMahon was Prime Minister, an office that Ms Ley will never hold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Liberal_Party_of_Australia#Federal_leaders_by_time_in_office

  17. A new United States congressional report openly contemplates not selling any nuclear submarines to Australia – as promised under the Aukus agreement – because America wants to retain control of the submarines for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan.
    The report by the US Congressional Research Service, Congress’s policy research arm, posits an alternative “military division of labour” under which the submarines earmarked for sale to Australia are instead retained under US command to be sailed out of Australian bases.
    One of the arguments made against the US selling submarines to Australia is that Australia has refused to commit to supporting America in a conflict with China over Taiwan. Boats under US command could be deployed into that conflict.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/05/not-delivering-any-aukus-nuclear-submarines-to-australia-explored-as-option-in-us-congressional-report

  18. Savva should be more savvy than to give so much authority to a quote which is obviously from a supporter of the man who didn’t actually have the numbers to challenge.

    If they all thought Hastie was Prime Minister material he’d have challenged already.

    Haven’t we been here before with media geeing up rubbish over a congressional research service hypothetical?

  19. How many billion will we pay the US before reality hits and we recognise we’re never getting any US subs to use as a sovereign country? That’s if we get any as all

    AUKUS really is ridiculous

    House prices growing much faster than inflation makes changes to the CGT discount even more important. If we still had the old indexation system we’d be saving billions. I doubt the government will bring indexation back but something has to change

    Hopefully One Nation runs in the by-election, it will give an indication of where they’re at in Victoria

    #28in26

  20. Q: address the growing budget deficit

    Of all the challenges we face, the debt and deficit are not one.

    Labor has been running +1percent of GDP deficits to +1percent surpluses, and already reduced future debt by 200 billion. Australia’s debt is a fraction of comparative countries.

    If we keep focusing on non-problems, we will never fix the real problems like housing and inequality.

  22. World News & Politics Patrol:

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    ‘Investigating child sex abuse isn’t controversial’: France rejects Musk’s charge after raid on X’s Paris office: https://www.firstpost.com/world/investigating-child-sex-abuse-isnt-controversial-france-rejects-musks-charge-after-raid-on-xs-paris-office-ws-e-13976002.html

    Canada and France set to establish diplomatic presence in Greenland amid Trump threats: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-canada-and-france-establish-diplomatic-presence-in-greenland-amid/

    Rand Paul on Trump call to ‘nationalize’ elections: ‘That’s not what the Constitution says’: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5722041-rand-paul-trump-call-to-nationalize-elections/

    Steve Bannon says ICE will ‘surround the polls’ as Trump doubles down on taking over elections: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/steve-bannon-says-ice-will-surround-the-polls-as-trump-doubles-down-on-taking-over-elections/

    Trump Is Too Scared to Go to the Super Bowl After His Aides’ Humiliating Warning: https://www.thedailybeast.com/thin-skinned-trump-79-skipping-the-super-bowl-after-his-aides-humiliating-warning/

    Mike Johnson Spars With Pope Leo XIV Over Christian Treatment of Immigrants: https://www.notus.org/republicans/mike-johnson-spars-with-pope-leo-xiv-christian-bible-scripture-immigrants-border

    Majority of Americans Say Economy Worse Off Under Trump Than Biden: https://www.newsweek.com/poll-americans-economy-worse-trump-biden-11456737

    Trump’s border czar pulling 700 immigration officers out of Minnesota immediately: https://apnews.com/article/immigration-enforcement-drawdown-minnesota-homan-963adf341325d7f6eb5673e1c00d3c2a

    Bill Gates denies allegations in new Epstein files release: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/bill-gates-responds-to-alleged-behaviour-in-new-epstein-files/106305816

  28. Good Morning! Here’s Your Daily News and Views Roundup

    Capital gains tax reform among options as Labor weighs housing pitch
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    Full throttle: EU trade deal promises cheaper cars, more exports. David Crowe
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    Ursula von der Leyen to travel to Australia to seal EU security, trade deal. Canberra and Brussels are reviving trade talks that collapsed at the end of 2023 amid disagreements over quotas of beef and lamb.
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    What the RBA wants Australians to do next to fight inflation – or risk more rate hikes
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    Sussan Ley may fast-track permanent Liberal-only frontbench as Coalition reunion hopes fade
    Opposition leader may announce promotion of six MPs to shadow cabinet early amid deadlock in talks to reunite with Nationals
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/sussan-ley-may-fast-track-permanent-liberal-only-frontbench-as-coalition-reunion-hopes-fade

    Ley is toast and the Coalition isn’t just on a break. This bust-up is serious. Niki Savva
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ley-is-toast-and-the-coalition-aren-t-just-on-a-break-this-bust-up-is-serious-20260204-p5nze4.html

    Taylor pushes back on Ley’s hardball tactics as Littleproud digs in.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ridiculous-ley-scoffs-at-leadership-threats-as-peace-talks-with-littleproud-resume-20260204-p5nzdp.html

    The new owner of the 2GB and 3AW radio stations, Craig Laundy, has opened the door to veteran shock jock Ray Hadley’s return to the airwaves as the pub family scion vowed not to let his personal moderate Liberal politics interfere with his hosts’ on-air commentary.
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    Analysis: One Nation has been surging in the polls. Next month’s South Australian election may reveal whether that’s a load of hot air. Tory Shepherd
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    Can One Nation turn its polling hype into seats in parliament? History shows it will struggle
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    Politics with Michelle Grattan: Barnaby Joyce on getting on with Pauline Hanson and One Nation’s rise
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    One Nation’s aiming high in NSW, but Labor’s not the primary target
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    The National Rental Affordability Scheme is coming to an end leaving thousands of vulnerable Australians uncertain about their futures. Experts warn that the new homes built through the Housing Australia Future Fund are not enough to replace the 36,000 NRAS homes lost or the 640,000 new properties needed to meet demand.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/national-rental-affordability-scheme-housing-stress/106281856

    SMH Editorial: Treasurer Chalmers should tap the brakes on spending
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    Attorney-General Michelle Rowland wrote to the NACC chief Paul Brereton last year asking why he did not adequately disclose his ongoing work with the ADF. Mr Brereton has been under pressure over those ties after the ABC revealed he was continuing to advise the Inspector-General of the ADF regarding the Afghanistan War Crimes Inquiry. The NACC CEO Philip Reed and NACC Inspector Gail Furness will appear before Senate Estimates next Monday.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/attorney-general-asked-nacc-chief-to-explain-defence-ties/106305764

    Regulators across Australia have cracked down on early learning centres. A pre-school at an elite private school and a family day care with 411 breaches are among three centres being closed down. Experts say there is still plenty of work to do to restore trust and are concerned about the corporatisation of out of school hours care.
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    Online safety watchdog says tech giants failing to detect child abuse.
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    Condemnation of Elon Musk’s AI chatbot reached ‘tipping point’ after French raid, Australia’s eSafety chief says. A number of countries including Australia are investigating X over Grok-produced sexualised deepfakes
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/05/australia-esafety-commissioner-elon-musk-ai-chatbot-grok-deepfakes

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    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/why-elon-musk-just-created-a-1-8-trillion-space-monster-20260204-p5nzdj.html

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    Elon Musk calls Spanish PM a ‘tyrant’ over plan to ban under-16s from social media and curb hateful content. Insults are all he has.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2026/feb/04/spain-under-16-social-media-ban-elon-musk-insults

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    Victorian councils will be legally required to offer flexible payment plans to stressed ratepayers and stop charging “snowballing” interest on deferred rates under rules designed to tackle the “postcode lottery” of suburban debt.
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    Victoria has long been immune to Pauline Hanson’s charms. Not any more. Chip Le Grand
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    The iconic Perth military sites being flogged off in defence’s fire sale
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    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/high-rise-towers-housing-3000-people-proposed-for-royal-randwick-in-new-housing-deal-20260204-p5nzgf.html

    ‘Clear abuse of public trust’: High Court rules on Obeid, Macdonald appeals
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/clear-abuse-of-public-trust-high-court-rules-on-obeid-macdonald-appeals-20260204-p5nzdf.html

    Report calls for Australia to grow security, trade and diplomatic ties with Taiwan because of China’s influence
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/australia-taiwan-security-trade-ties-should-expand-experts-say/106306736

    Revealed: Israel bulldozed part of Gaza war cemetery containing allied graves. Satellite images and witness testimony show destruction as IDF claims it was forced to take defensive measures
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/04/idf-bulldoze-gaza-war-cemetery-allied-graves-satellite-images

    Labor MP Ed Husic ‘uncomfortable’ with Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/labor-mp-uncomfortable-with-israeli-president-visit/106306522

    Ed Husic on why he opposes a visit by the Israeli president – Full Story podcast
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2026/feb/04/ed-husic-on-why-he-opposes-a-visit-by-the-israeli-president-full-story-podcast

    Human Rights Watch researchers resign after report on Palestinian right of return blocked
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/03/human-rights-watch-researchers-resign-palestine

    Australian universities to be graded on how well they deal with protests under antisemitism report card
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/05/australian-universities-protests-antisemitism-grade-system

    Florida bill seeks to ban use of ‘West Bank’ in schools and state agencies. The bill would mandate use of the biblical term ‘Judea and Samaria’ after a similar effort passed in Arkansas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/04/florida-ban-west-bank-schools-state-agencies-bill

    Lakemba, Sydney Mosque receives second ‘threatening letter’ weeks out from Ramadan
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/second-letter-threat-to-western-sydney-lakemba-mosque/106306668

    Jacob Hersant becomes first Australian jailed for doing Nazi salute after losing appeal. Judge says neo-Nazi’s offending outside Melbourne court was ‘contemptuous’ and Hersant ‘relished’ the opportunity to do it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/jacob-hersant-becomes-first-australian-jailed-for-doing-nazi-salute-after-losing-appeal-ntwnfb

    Albanese can still withdraw his invitation to Isaac Herzog. He should do so, for the sake of social cohesion. Chris Sidoti
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/05/albanese-can-still-withdraw-the-invitation-to-israels-president-he-should-do-so-for-the-sake-of-social-cohesion-ntwnfb

    Trump’s failure to extend nuclear treaty leaves door ‘wide open’ to arms race. Laura Tingle
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/start-treaty-russia-america-donald-trump-nuclear-arms-race/106303426

    Steve Bannon calls for immigration agents at polling sites during midterms. Ex-Trump adviser adds to elections officials’ concern about potential interference from Trump administration in voting
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/04/steve-bannon-ice-immigration-agents-polling-sites-midterm-elections

    Clive Palmer suggests Steven Bannon hoped to ‘increase influence’ by claiming credit for 2019 election ads. Billionaire says he spoke to former Trump strategist once, when he mistook him for a potential donor, denying claims revealed in the Jeffrey Epstein files
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/clive-palmer-steven-bannon-epstein-files-claim-election-ads

    Democrats launch aggressive campaign to win back infrequent voters
    DNC’s Local Listeners initiative will target one million ‘infrequent’ voters in battleground districts
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/04/democrats-local-listeners-initiative-elections

    The Trump administration will withdraw approximately 700 immigration agents from the streets of Minnesota. Border tsar Tom Homan says 2,000 officers will remain in Minnesota.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/ice-to-pull-700-officers-out-of-minnesota/106306958

    ‘Bloodbath’ at Washington Post as massive layoffs announced
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/washington-post-layoffs/106307024

    Billionaire Bezos turns Trump toadying into an art form
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/billionaire-bezos-turns-trump-toadying-into-an-art-form-20260204-p5nzg7.html

    Jimmy Kimmel on Trump: ‘We are now at the women-should-smile-more stage of his presidency’
    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2026/feb/04/jimmy-kimmel-trump-epstein-reporter

    What the Epstein files tell us about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s ‘car crash’ 2019 interview
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/epstein-files-shed-more-light-on-mountbatten-windsor-interview/106302294

    Labour MPs say Starmer’s days as PM are numbered amid fury over Mandelson. MPs say release of papers on Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador could trigger leadership challenge
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/04/labour-mps-say-starmer-days-as-pm-are-numbered-amid-fury-over-mandelson

    Explainer: How much did Starmer really know about Mandelson’s ties to Epstein?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/04/how-was-mandelson-vetted-role-ambassador-what-did-starmer-know-epstein-explainer

    Gunmen have killed 162 people during a raid on a village in Nigeria’s central-west. Parts of Nigeria are plagued by armed gangs — who loot villages and kidnap for ransom — as well as intercommunal violence in the central states and jihadist groups that are active in the north-east and north-west.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/gunmen-kill-162-people-in-nigeria/106306892

    At least seven killed after Russian cluster munitions attacks in Ukraine-controlled Donetsk.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/russia-cluster-munitions-attack-on-donestk/106306910

    Explainer: Ukraine war briefing: second round of Abu Dhabi talks set for tense start after ‘massive’ strikes on Kyiv. Ukraine president and Nato chief say attack likely to hamper peace negotiations as temperatures continue to plummet. What we know on day 1,442
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/04/ukraine-war-briefing-second-round-talks-abu-dhabi-russia-strike

    Trump wants Ukraine to give up the Donbas in return for security guarantees. It could be fatal for Kyiv
    https://theconversation.com/trump-wants-ukraine-to-give-up-the-donbas-in-return-for-security-guarantees-it-could-be-fatal-for-kyiv-274779

    EU agrees €90B lifeline for cash-strapped Ukraine
    But the money won’t be enough to plug Kyiv’s widening budget gap.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-agree-90-billion-euro-ukraine-russia-war/

    Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin praised the strength of the relationship between the two countries and vowed to deepen ties.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-05/xi-speaks-to-putin-and-trump-on-eve-of-ukraine-war-anniversary/106306896

    Scammers staged a fake AFP set in a Cambodian compound.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/fake-afp-office-scam-centre-cambodia/106303328

    Indian government urges Australia to ‘hold the culprits accountable’ over theft of Gandhi statue in Melbourne
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/gandhi-statue-melbourne-theft-indian-government-australia

    Outrage in Mexico at Trump praise for ‘legendary’ 19th-century US invasion. The US president’s celebration of the 1847 conquest draws fury from Mexican leaders over ‘imperialist tone’
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/03/mexico-leaders-react-trump-invasion

    US and Iran talks at risk of collapse after US rejects move to Oman. Talks were scheduled in Turkey with Arab states present, but Iran requests move amid attempts to limit agenda
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/04/us-iran-talks-risk-collapse-oman-move-rejected

    Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi and for years the second most powerful person in the country, has been killed in a village south-west of Tripoli, officials said on Tuesday night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/04/saif-al-islam-gaddafi-son-of-ex-libyan-leader-killed-say-officials

    Le Pen’s fighting spirit fades as presidential dream slips away . The far-right leader seems increasingly resigned to her fate despite fighting to overturn the ruling that knocked her out of the 2027 presidential election.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-fighting-spirit-fades-as-presidential-dream-slips-away-national-rally/

  29. The consequences for the innocent slaughter of Israelis has meant Hamas,Houthis,Lebanon factions etc etc and also Iran are on their knees now.

    How did that go for ya lefties?

    In fact labor in Australia made global headlines for its approach and Hamas noticed and this prolonged the war helping Israel.

    Genocide claims are a sick leftie fantasy btw.

    Labor needs to apologise to Israel.

  30. Thanks, C@t.

    In NSW energy news, there is a new solar power record:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.nsw1.solar.power.interval.high?datetime=2026-02-04T12_20_00&offset=10_00&focus=1770171600000

    The NSW govt. has completed its tender for long duration storage. Here are the winners:

    They should be built before 2030 in the following locations:


    https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-awards-contracts-to-six-huge-8-hour-battery-projects-including-the-biggest-in-australia/

  31. 56/44 to Labor. The (now defunct) LNP on 20%.

    And yet all we here is ONE NATION.

    WTF. Where is the media scrutiny.

    Chip Le Grand’s latest piece is a better written scream dump of LNP talking points. What the Actual F!

    Pied Piper is a bot. Ignore it.

  32. Thanks for the comprehensive roundup C@tmomma

    Jacob Hersant becomes first Australian jailed for doing Nazi salute after losing appeal. Judge says neo-Nazi’s offending outside Melbourne court was ‘contemptuous’ and Hersant ‘relished’ the opportunity to do it.

    haha

    In re-sentencing Hersant, Moglia said he performed the salute only minutes after being sentenced to a community corrections order over a violent affray in regional Victoria.

    The judge said the gesture was contemptuous and showed a disregard to the authority of the court.

    The offending was also in breach of Hersant’s corrections order, Moglia found.

  34. Ley is a dud cannot shift the narrative.

    Failed Minister for housing Claire bear gets up and lies and Ley says nothing.
    After Covid labor has been on a massive people import Ponzi scheme to prop up economy because they have no productivity agenda because the public sector unions dominate labor.
    That is the cause of the housing crisis and labor is also soft on booting visa overstayers.
    Liberals that are Labor lite gets you one nation surge in votes.

    Swinging voters parked with labor will move as interest rates go higher and higher due to failed labor policies .
    They will not go to Ley though or her dud smirking deputy.

    One nation will scoop them up.

  37. Noticeable that WB’s BludgerTrack trend measures finally catching up with political reality – changing so quickly trend measure do tend to lag.

    Not sure how ALP PV is down 3.1% in a month. That must still be working off actual December poll data rather than the trend from early Jan. Unless something drastic changes this week and next, expect to see that 3.1% drop to entirely disappear.

    Notably there should be a Newspoll this Sunday (assumed 3 week cycle) and one upon the start of the March parliamentary sitting – which seems to be the one Taylor will look to act after. Otherwise the stalemate will continue to after the budget.

  38. Re SL @8:47. ”Jeez our media is shit*. Is this not news?”

    I’m surprised that The Australian doesn’t have 27 front page articles condemning it, given the disdain that they have for international agreements and the environment.

  39. Skeptic@6:48 am

    Blind Freddy could see this coming…

    A new United States congressional report openly contemplates not selling any nuclear submarines to Australia – as promised under the Aukus agreement – because America wants to retain control of the submarines for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan.

    The report by the US Congressional Research Service, Congress’s policy research arm, posits an alternative “military division of labour” under which the submarines earmarked for sale to Australia are instead retained under US command to be sailed out of Australian bases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/05/not-delivering-any-aukus-nuclear-submarines-to-australia-explored-as-option-in-us-congressional-report

    ——————–——————-

    It was always the plan… answer dump Aukus & spend the money on future social infrastructure where it will benefit the country

    Indeed. And not just Blind Freddy. Anyone not wearing bipartisan blinkers could see this coming.

    If ever we needed a “Plan B”, it is now – before we blow any more A$ billions.

  40. Thanks for the thanks on the previous thread for my modelling work. I had parked this work since the last election partly through being busy with other things (like cricket) and partly because of the rise of ON, which rendered the approach of my previous model (based on their being mostly LNP v ALP and LNP v IND 2PP contests) obsolete.

    Today I will start work on preference flows.

    As Antony Green has noted in his blog post on this issue, there is a paucity of data to determine likely preference flows from LNP and ALP to ON.

    My approach at the moment is:
    1. Use 2025 election results in the HoR wherever possible.
    2. In absence of data from 1, look at state election results.
    3. For the 2025 election, calculate preference flow rates per seat type (Inner Metro, Outer Metro, Provincial, Rural).
    4. Test whether these are significantly different from the national averages. If they are then use them for each seat in each seat type. If not, then just use the national average.

    I know Antony mentioned some psephs using Senate preferences but I am not keen on this as their is clear evidence that a significant proportion of voters vote differently in the Senate compared to the House. Plus above the line voting further distorts results in comparison to the HoR.

    Finally, because the AEC has not collated preference distribution data by seat type, it means I will have to manually collate this data (hard yards). So as an alternative, I was thinking of giving AI a crack at this task. I assume I’ll have to develop a detailed instructional brief, presumably in a format that is syntactically correct for AI on how to collate the data, but beyond that I have no idea.

    I am not a big user of AI so I’m not sure of the best way to go about this and whether it’s potentially viable or not, so any advice here appreciated.

  41. With Morgan’s showing the Labor party’s vote on 30.5 and ON on 25.0 it is getting very close to the position where the ON might be leading on primary vote given the margin of error in the poll. Now that would be something out of left field (or is that right field?).

  42. While Kevin Hogan and friends are talking about themselves and possibly fractions of their own bodyparts, Janelle Saffin and the ALP are focused squarely on issues that matter to the people of the northern rivers, such as potholes, steak, tractors, and avocado trees that never seem to produce much fruit.

  45. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, February 5, 2026 at 9:23 am
    I predict (although I will deny if wrong), ON, or their agents, starting to talk about FPP or OPV.

    And they will be laughed out of town.

  48. King O’Malley says:

    My approach at the moment is:
    1. Use 2025 election results in the HoR wherever possible.
    2. In absence of data from 1, look at state election results.
    3. For the 2025 election, calculate preference flow rates per seat type (Inner Metro, Outer Metro, Provincial, Rural).
    4. Test whether these are significantly different from the national averages. If they are then use them for each seat in each seat type. If not, then just use the national average.

    … so any advice here appreciated.

    My advice is, as an exercise in getting your head around it it’s probably a suitable endeavour, however, as I have cautioned multiple times already, I don’t think the Preference deal that the Coalition did with ON for the 2025 election will persist to 2028 due to the fact that they are in competition now and the competition in 2025 for the Coalition was Labor, hence the deal which advantaged ON.

  50. King OMalley

    My advice is you pay at least as much attention to Kevin Bonham’s work on the topic of preference flows as to Antony Green. Just because he worked for the ABC for 36 years doesn’t mean he is the oracle on all things electoral

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/why-hunter-2025-cant-be-used-to-do-last.html

    Your argument about why not to use Senate preference flows to develop an estimate of likely future House flows is not very persuasive. I’d have a good read of Kevin’s work before you go further – and bookmark his blog site. It could save you a lot of time…..

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