Morgan: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Another week, another dizzying new peak for One Nation. Also: a state by-election on the way in Victoria.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll, which was published on Monday, maintained the seemingly remorseless trend of recent months in recording One Nation up two-and-a-half to yet another new high of 25%, with the Liberals down two to 18% and the Nationals steady on 2.5%. Labor’s primary vote was unchanged at 30.5%, while the Greens were down half a point to 12.5%. On the arguably redundant two-party preferred measure, which lines Labor up against a now defunct Coalition that is actually running third, Labor leads 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, in from 56.5-43.5 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401. The accompanying release also includes accumulated monthly breakdowns on primary vote and two-party preferred by state, gender and age cohort.

I will also make note here that a Victorian by-election is on the way after Liberal MP Sam Groth announced he will resign next week as member for the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean, a month after quitting as deputy leader and announcing he would not contest the November election. Labor will surely have no interest in fielding a candidate, and the seat has never been strong for right-wing minor parties despite having the state’s oldest age profile. A One Nation candidacy would nonetheless be of obvious interest, and a Climate 200-backed candidate for the corresponding federal seat of Flinders cleared 20% at last year’s federal election, so stay tuned for further developments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,690 thoughts on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. SLsays:
    Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 7:18 pm
    I (vaguely) remember docos about these guys from decades ago:
    https://rpc.com.au/
    Love their address:
    1 Alternative Way
    Nimbin NSW 2480 Australia.
    _______________________
    That is so weird. I’ve actually met that guy and been to their display showroom. Had forgotten all about. Probably around 2004.
    My parents were building a house on 5 acres down in Portland that needed a new power pole on their property which was going to cost a fortune. So they were thinking about going totally off grid.
    My dad reached out to them through a magazine called Grass Roots. I was on holiday on Bryon Bay and had to go and check them out for him. Get some brochures and stuff.
    Parents ended up getting a power pole
    Had a generator for a while but that was all too hard.

  2. Thomas Brian Mutter – Newspoll is usually every three weeks (but this can vary). The quarterly figures you are thinking of are the articles where they aggregate data from the last few polls and then break it down by state and demographics.

  3. “If anything, if The Coalition is back in place, Ley is even more vulnerable, since Taylor won’t have to go through all the work.”

    @jt1983

    I’m not completely convinced Angus Taylor wanted this. I read he wasn’t in a rush to put the coalition back together again. And would like the flexibility to define the Liberals without having to curtail to the Nationals. Rather then viewing this as Sussan Ley has done the legwork for him. I see it more as Ley has locked Taylor in before he could get the leadership to consider his options.

  4. Political Nightwatchman @ #1650 Sunday, February 8th, 2026 – 7:36 pm

    “If anything, if The Coalition is back in place, Ley is even more vulnerable, since Taylor won’t have to go through all the work.”

    @jt1983

    I’m not completely convinced Angus Taylor wanted this. I read he wasn’t in a rush to put the coalition back together again. And would like the flexibility to define the Liberals without having to curtail to the Nationals. Rather then viewing this as Sussan Ley has done the legwork for him. I see it more as Ley has locked Taylor in before he could get the leadership to consider his options.

    I would think their private polling would be telling them that they are both now in a battle of survival against Pauline.But nobody has the strength of character to stop the merry go round.

  5. If anybody has found a news report – especially a video – of the Perth bombing, timestamped less than 24 hours after the event I’d be keen to see it.

    Best I can do is this Facebook page about 36 hours after the event: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2027698904474574

    WA Today summed up their knowledge the next day, saying,
    “The incident was immediately reported to police, who evacuated the area, with protesters beginning their march towards the Swan River, most seemingly unaware or confused about what had sparked the sudden move-on directions.

    Video footage released by police showed the man throw the device from the first floor of a Forrest Place building and attempt to run, but he was arrested a short time later.

    Body camera footage from police involved in his arrest shows the man wearing a shirt by an Indigenous artist.”

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/chemicals-found-at-accused-s-house-after-bomb-scare-at-perth-invasion-day-rally-20260127-p5nxa4.html

  6. Does anyone think these young Liberals calling for the parliamentary leadership to resign need to know their place? It’s not like Sussan Ley is going to listen to them. Kingmakers, they are not.

    “The incoming federal president and vice-president of the Young Liberals are calling on Opposition Sussan Ley to step down “for the sake of our nation’s future”, amid heightened speculation of a leadership spill and a surge in support for One Nation.

    In an incendiary intervention, Cooper Gannon and Hannah Hutton – who were elected to their positions on Sunday afternoon in Melbourne – told The Daily Telegraph the Liberals were facing an “existential crisis” under Ms Ley’s leadership.

    It comes just hours after Ms Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud announced the Coalition has been reformed, following a messy split over the Albanese government’s hate speech laws.

    The incoming federal president and vice-president of the Young Liberals are calling on Opposition Sussan Ley to step down “for the sake of our nation’s future”, amid heightened speculation of a leadership spill and a surge in support for One Nation.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/nsw/for-the-sake-of-our-nation-young-liberal-leaders-call-for-sussan-ley-to-resign/news-story/f6c80d1514a6575ca9704640187340f4

  7. Feels like Pakistan, not Dallas: Row over US lawmaker’s Islamisation remark
    Republican Congressman Brandon Gill claimed parts of Dallas are undergoing ‘Islamisation’ due to ‘mass Islamic migration,’ comments that add to his history of anti-immigration remarks.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/united-states-republican-congressman-brandon-gill-dallas-malls-pakistan-islamisation-claims-2864925-2026-02-08

    “Republican Congressman Brandon Gill has stirred controversy after claiming that parts of his home state are undergoing “Islamisation,” saying that visiting certain malls in Texas “feels like you’re in Pakistan, not Dallas.”

    In a video message shared on social media with the caption, “Mass Islamic migration is killing the America we know and love,” Gill alleged that demographic changes in parts of Dallas have significantly altered the cultural character of local neighbourhoods.

    “I hear from constituents all the time who are deeply and desperately concerned about the Islamisation of the Dallas area. They’re hearing about mosques that are popping up near land that they have owned for generations. They’re hearing about these epic city compounds that are popping up where you have entire communities that are being transformed,” the Congressman said.”

  8. If anything, if The Coalition is back in place, Ley is even more vulnerable, since Taylor won’t have to go through all the work.

    Yep, that’s my view too. She sold out any principled stand she could’ve taken with Littleproud in order to keep the leadership, even though she must’ve known she is still in the sights of the boys’ club.

    The Liberals need time away from the Nationals to get their shit together and regroup. There is no urgency from the Liberal party perspective to reunite with the Nats, who stand to be the biggest losers from the ungrouping.

    Ley sold out when standing strong was the much better option for the party.

  9. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 8:15 pm
    Cue Benny Hill music….

    Littleproud has no shame. He is smiling because tail is again wagging the dog.

  10. Luigi Smithsays:
    Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 7:54 pm
    If anybody has found a news report – especially a video – of the Perth bombing, timestamped less than 24 hours after the event I’d be keen to see it.

    _______________________

    I’m not sure what point you are trying to make, and I personally feel like I’m in some sort of twilight zone – this event was everywhere and discuss widely.

    Even the BBC picked up Albo’s comments from the morning after.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3ep5jgzdgo

    And terrorism charges were flagged in a day or so.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/28/perth-man-invasion-day-explosive-device-albanese-reaction-ntwnfb

    Like, did people forgotten all this happened? I have no idea what media people are reading to believe there has been no coverage of it.

  11. The Coalition’s primary vote has plunged to 18 per cent, One Nation’s voter support has skyrocketed to 27 per cent, and Sussan Ley is the most unpopular major party leader in 23 years, with the disastrous polling numbers expected to be used by Angus Taylor’s backers to push for a spill of the Liberal leadership this week.
    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian reveals One Nation’s core support has risen by five points over the past three weeks, with the second Coalition divorce in nine months translating into a clear loss of voter support for the Liberals and Nationals and a collapse in the Opposition Leader’s personal standing.
    One Nation’s primary vote is now closer to Labor’s than the Coalition’s, with the Albanese government’s core support increasing by one point since mid-January to 33 per cent. The last time the Coalition registered a primary vote as high as One Nation’s current support was October last year, with the latest survey reinforcing the potential of Pauline Hanson’s populist party to not only threaten but even eclipse one of the traditional major parties.
    Of the 1234 people surveyed ­between Thursday and Sunday, just 23 per cent were satisfied with Ms Ley’s leadership compared to 28 per cent three weeks ago.
    Sixty-two per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with her performance, up from 56 per cent in January, bringing her net satisfaction rating to minus-39.
    Mr Albanese’s net satisfaction rating has improved by one point to minus-10, while he holds a 19-point lead over Ms Ley as preferred prime minister.
    With the survey being conducted while the Coalition parties were split, the Liberals’ primary support was 15 per cent while the Nationals’ was 3 per cent.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-sussan-leys-liberals-hit-historic-low-and-hand-angus-taylor-a-challenge-trigger/news-story/bbd4bf5615319c1d872a735e4d1646f9?amp

  12. My interest is in when the media began reporting a bomb being thrown.

    As I said, the closest I can get is the next day.

    Recollections are shaped by events.

  13. Littleproud knows he is a complete nobody without the Liberals. He should be concentrating on not becoming obsolete from One Nation’ surge. And there it is!! ON on 27%. Nationals in massive trouble.

  14. Newspoll 8/2

    No 2PP given

    Labor 33 (+1)
    Coalition 18 (-3) — of which Liberal was at 15, National at 3
    One Nation 27 (+5)

    PPM
    Albanese 49
    Ley 30
    Uncommitted 21

  15. No 2PP Folks

    “As the Coalition’s primary vote is at a record low and One Nation’s support historically concentrated in a smaller number of seats, Newspoll has not generated a two-party-preferred calculation.

    After Ms Ley’s allies on Friday declared the Nationals’ offer to ­reform the Coalition was “not serious” and top moderates described it as a “joke”, the Opposition Leader the following day struck an in-principle agreement with Mr Littleproud to restore the union.

    The deal came amid an internal rumour Mr Taylor was planning on quitting the frontbench early this week to protest the failure to strike a deal with the Coalition, which would have been a trigger for him to challenge.

    Mr Taylor’s supporters on Sunday said there was still a chance of a move against Ms Ley by the end of the parliamentary week if ­Newspoll showed the Coalition’s support had declined further. But some conservative MPs are not convinced he has enough support to win a spill, while Ms Ley’s backers claim she retains the support of the majority of the partyroom.

    Mr Taylor’s backers said the Nationals deal would remove barriers to replacing Ms Ley this week, including concerns from some Liberals it would look like they are being forced by Mr Littleproud to dump her.

    They also said it reduced the number of swing Liberal MPs who could be “bought off” by Ms Ley with a lucrative position in the shadow ministry.

    Under the new Coalition deal unveiled by Ms Ley and Mr Littleproud on Sunday, the two parties will immediately reunite with Nationals shadow ministers being suspended from the frontbench until March.

    This was a substantial backdown from Ms Ley last week proposing a six-month sanction for three Nationals senators – Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald – for crossing the floor and voting against shadow cabinet’s position on the hate speech legislation.

    After panning the Nationals’ push for sanctions to last until March on Friday, Ms Ley’s allies on Sunday claimed she received an extra concession that the Coalition would immediately reunite while the Nationals frontbenchers were benched, instead of Mr Littleproud’s proposal for negotiations to continue throughout February.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-sussan-leys-liberals-hit-historic-low-and-hand-angus-taylor-a-challenge-trigger/news-story/bbd4bf5615319c1d872a735e4d1646f9?amp

  16. Bizzcan I can’t speak for others, but I was disappointed by what I’m calling the failing boomer media’s response to what I’m calling the forgotten terrorism scandal.

    Even the guardian article you linked to could have easily mentioned how Albo’s abject failure on the voice directly led to this potential tradgedy, yet…crickets.

    I tried to find the Nimbin Good Times take on the forgotten terrorism scandal but it appears they have decided to wisely meditate on it until next month’s edition. I did find this article about the importance of watermelon in traditional chinese medicine though, which, if you read between the lines, it’s all there.

  17. Sussan Ley’s in real danger this week, but the Coalition has bigger problems

    Sussan Ley could face a challenge later this week, while the newly reformed Coalition is at risk of losing its status as Australia’s dominant conservative force.
    Greg Brown

    Angus Taylor has been given a powerful trigger to challenge for the Liberal leadership this week but the existential crisis facing the Coalition needs a far bigger solution than simply rolling Sussan Ley.

    The newly reformed Coalition is at risk of losing its status as Australia’s dominant conservative force to a grievance party that has few credible answers on how the nation’s challenges can be met.

    This is the price of the amateurish dysfunction displayed by the Liberals and Nationals in the past few months, and it is everyday Australians who are ultimately paying the price.

    Opposition Leader Sussan Ley has reaffirmed the Coalition’s “strength and determination” after the party patched up its internal divisions. “The point is, we did have differences, David and I and our party rooms, we’ve resolved those differences,” Ms Ley said. “We’ve strengthened our processes, and we are going forward as a united Coalition to take the fight up to Labor. “Out of this process, we are stronger … and we are determined.”

    The latest Newspoll, published by The Australian on Sunday, shows Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as easily the second-most popular party in Australia, with a primary vote of 27 per cent compared to the combined voter support of the Coalition at 18 per cent.

    This puts One Nation’s primary vote just six points off Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, an extraordinary surge in support since it received just 6.4 per cent of the vote at last year’s federal election.

    Net satisfaction in Ley’s performance has collapsed 11 points in three weeks to minus-39, making her the most unpopular major party leader since Labor’s Simon Crean in May 2003.

    While Ley on Sunday moved to prolong her leadership by striking a deal with the Nationals to reunite the Coalition, supporters of Taylor will use the Newspoll to try to convince wavering Liberal MPs that her time is up.

    It is unlikely she will face a spill motion at Tuesday’s scheduled Liberal partyroom meeting but there are conservative MPs who say there is a real chance Taylor’s supporters will write to Ley calling for a special partyroom meeting to be held later in the week, potentially on Friday.

    Conservative MPs say Ley is required to hold a special partyroom meeting “as soon as practicable” if this is requested in writing by two MPs, with the vote on a spill motion to be anonymous.

    These partyroom rules codified in 2020 give Taylor a significantly lower bar than Peter Dutton faced when he challenged Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership in 2018, with the then prime minister breaking convention by demanding a petition signed by a majority of the partyroom be produced.
    But Ley’s allies claim they have never seen the partyroom rules formalised in writing by late MP Kevin Andrews, with the Liberal leader in no mood to make her challenger’s life easy.

    While there are some senior conservative MPs who are not convinced Taylor has the numbers to succeed in a spill motion, there was a broad expectation within the party that a bad Newspoll could be enough to bring the leadership issue to a head this week rather than waiting for parliament to resume next month.

    While it is Ley’s leadership that is under threat, the most damaging Coalition figure in recent weeks has been David Littleproud. Worryingly, Littleproud showed no contrition or regret on Sunday for publicly blowing up the Coalition in a move that has seen One Nation increase its primary vote by 5 per cent in just three weeks.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/sussan-leys-in-real-danger-this-week-but-the-coalition-has-bigger-problems/news-story/c08b88e86a028c1a2bb1ea9286649ef9?amp

  18. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    No official 2PP (for the first time since 2002)
    ALP 33
    ON 27
    L/NP 18 (includes Nat 3)
    Greens 12
    Ind/others 10
    My 2PP estimate 56.0 to ALP
    My shadow-2PP estimate 54.4 to ALP vs ON

  19. No 2PP, but the article states “If the poll was borne out in a federal election, the Prime Minister and Labor would win in an even bigger landslide than it did last year”

  20. ‘NSW Protest Ban Extended for Genocidal Israeli President’s Visit

    Extended protest ban NSW for Herzog.

    New South Wales police commissioner Mal Lanyon extended the protest ban that’s in place across Gadigal land in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney and parts of its CBD. The top cop’s reasoning was the expected protesting of next week’s official visit from Israeli president Isaac Herzog, due to “significant animosity” against it. But some pro-Palestinian advocates have vowed to break the ban regardless.

    The framework for the protest ban was enacted on Christmas Eve in response to the 14 December 2025 Bondi Beach massacre. Herzog has been officially invited by prime minister Anthony Albanese, in response to the Bondi Beach mass murder, as it targeted a Jewish religious event. And the outrage over his visit is due to the nation he presides over perpetrating the ongoing Gaza genocide.

    Under the new law, a public assembly restriction declaration or PARD can be imposed following an event being declared an act of terrorism. A PARD remains in place for 90 days and the police commissioner considers whether to continue it every two weeks. The current prohibition covering the east, is much reduced from the original ban that also covered the northwest and southwest.

    Rights-minded Sydneysiders have been shocked by the imposition of the ban, and that the laws were spurred by a nonexistent link posited between Bondi and the local pro-Palestine protest movement. Bondi was ISIS inspired, which has nothing to do with the Palestinian cause. Yet that has not dissuaded forces long attempting to criminalise and suppress the anti-Gaza genocide movement.’

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/nsw-protest-ban-extended-for-genocidal-israeli-presidents-visit/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-7

    I’m not sure what the police could do if a protest march tommorrow equals or exceeds previous ones, and becomes militant.

  21. But Ley’s allies claim they have never seen the partyroom rules formalised in writing by late MP Kevin Andrews, with the Liberal leader in no mood to make her challenger’s life easy.

    Were the rules buried with the deceased?

  22. Rita Panahi declaring that there is no doubt Labor is losing votes to ON on Skynoos earlier this evening. Rowan Dean and James Morrow nod sagely.

  23. Dreadful numbers for Ley.

    Liberal primary 15
    Ley net satisfaction-39

    On top of being humiliated by the guffawning Littleproud, she has become the albatross around the neck of a once proud party.

  24. Entropysays:
    Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 10:41 am
    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 12:21 am
    Nath
    A Stuart restoration – you know it is the only thing that will save Australian democracy as well as being the right thing to do.
    If I live to 2050, I expect to pledge my allegiance to Josef Wenzel I (known in the back streets of Vaduz as “ dieser kleine Schwuchtel”)
    ————————————————-

    Except the true King lives in Wangaratta, Simon Michael Abney-Hastings, 15th Earl of Loudoun.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Abney-Hastings,_15th_Earl_of_Loudoun
    ===============================
    C’mon, the Stuarts were interlopers.
    The true line is the descendants of Aethelstan (grandson of Alfred the Great) the first true King of all England. Any others are all usurpers and should be put to the sword for treason!

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