The Financial Review has the first RedBridge Group/Accent Research federal poll since immediately before the Bondi shootings, and it shades last week’s YouGov in recording the highest One Nation vote and the lowest “former Coalition parties“ vote of any poll so far. Labor is at 34%, which is down one on the previous poll but still their best result in any poll since that time. One Nation is up fully nine points to 26%, while the Coalition is down seven to 19%, with the Greens down two to 11%. The increasingly speculative two-party preferred measure has Labor back in the territory of its landslide win last May with a lead of 56-44 over the former Coalition parties. Contrary to a consensus that the One Nation surge will likely prove ephemeral, the poll in fact finds slightly more of the party’s supporters saying their choice is “solid” than for other parties with meaningful sample sizes.
The full release for the poll has helpfully presented favourability ratings for various politicians, which bring together the equally important considerations of net favourability and name recognition. Andrew Hastie shades his erstwhile leadership rival Angus Taylor on net favourability, but both have roughly a third saying they have never heard of them, with many of those who have on the fence about them. Both Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley have taken a knock over the past month, with the latter doing less well than both Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce. Donald Trump scores 16% favourable and 67% unfavourable.
A preferred prime minister question has 37% favouring Albanese, down four on last month; 9% favouring Ley, down three; 8% opting for about the same, down one; and 34% opting for neither, with 12% unsure. A particularly soft 29% reckon the country “generally headed in the right direction”, compared with 55% for wrong direction, and 44% responded to a question on “Australian federal politics right now” with a view that the system needs “major changes”, on top of 15% for the more radical version that “the system needs to be burned down so we can start over”. Twenty-nine per cent held that the system needed minor changes, with only 5% holding that the system is fine as it is. Issue salience questions find an increase in concern about the rate of immigration and national security. The poll was conducted January 22 to 29 from a sample of 1003.
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson says she would form a Coalition with the Liberal Party and the National Party, claiming it is the only way One Nation can “move forward”.
“I am a conservative at heart, and I would work with them to give them supply.”
Shes thinking about it obviously.
Re Mavis ”Wran’s great achievement was to give Labor supporters some hope after Gough was defeated so badly in ’75.”
Very much so.
11/11/1975 – Gough dismissed
13/12/1975 – Federal Labor defeated in a landslide
1/5/1976 – Neville Wran and Labor end 11 years of Coalition rule in NSW, winning by 1 seat, but it’s enough.
1986 – Neville Wran leaves Premiership at a time of his choosing.
Thomas
I don’t want to sound like a killjoy because I agree Labor has run several excellent State and Federal campaigns in the last five years since Covid. But I don’t think it is just the quality of the Labor campaign team.
For me the key reason is the Liberal Party has been at its nadir in this time. They are a leaderless train wreck. The decades long Liberal lies relating to superior economic management and the falsity of climate change have been exposed. Nobody remaining seems capable of remaking a new identity and raison d’etre.
By comparison when I was younger there were some great Labor campaigns (and governments) in the Hawke – Keating era that never saw victories of the magnitudes in the current era. Dislike him or loath him, John Howard was a much tougher political opponent in terms of both government policy and campaigning.
Re Marie Bashir: she was a wonderful, unaffected, kind person, as was her husband Nick Shehadie (rugby star, businessman, Lord Mayor of Sydney for a time). I knew both of them from when I was a very small tacker: I grew up near where they lived and went to primary school with their kids (and then, 30 odd years later, I served for a while on a government committee chaired by Nick and once was on a two person panel with Marie at a conference. She seemed to remenber me from my childhood.)
Both of them did so much for Australia and it’s terribly sad to think they have now both left us forever.
Any one of us is “likely to escape” and be subject to arrest, or worse by ‘Trump’s invasion forces’.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/3/2366773/-Any-one-of-us-is-likely-to-escape-and-be-subject-to-arrest-or-worse-by-Trump-s-invasion-forces?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Over the past two weeks, images of Aliya Rahman, a US citizen, being dragged out of her car by ICE agents as she screamed “I am disabled” have swept across social media. Rahman, a 43-year-old Minneapolis resident, was on her way to a doctor’s appointment at the city’s Traumatic Brain Injury Center on January 13, when masked agents smashed in one of her car windows, opened the driver’s side door, slashed her seat belt, yanked her out of the car, and forcibly took her away. In the seconds before they did so, visuals showed the agents yelling “Move!” at Rahman.”
”
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/aliya-rahman-interview-ice-car-video/
Grime
Bass as in the 1975 Bass by-election. It was different circumstances, Bass was a Labor seat, the result sent shock through Labor.
So Mark McGowan vs Dan Andrews:
“State Daddy” McGowan:
– Pro: Best COVID leader state or federal, only one to truely make the state unite under a “mission” to beat it and thrive. Kept the national economy running through the border closure and scored an AFL Grand final.
– Con: WA indigenous heritage laws was a shemozzle, basically had to scrap the moment one bad actor popped of.
Rating – personal primary vote closer to that of a middle eastern dictator (83%)
***
“Dictator Dan” Andrews:
Pro: wholesale reconstruction of state rail and public transport network, the largest in the country, under the guise of “level crossing removal”
Con: while not the worst COVID leader, could never shake the perception of imposed cruelty (and some of it probably was).
Rating – made Peta Credlin cry.
Mark McGowan vs Dan Andrews?
Close, would give the points to McGowan.
Hypothetical: In a future election where most of the shine has worn of Albo and The ALP government, The Libs and Nats still at war over the scraps. One Nation now clearly the opposition….would the last remaining Libs in metro areas….think Bradfield etc. Would they Join Labor or One Nation to form a government in a tight election?….They would be committing suicide what ever their decision I think
No contest, Andrews did things, McGowan, not so much!
For me the only thing that I did not like about Dan Andrews was the arrogance that he had against the rest of Australia throwing insults everywhere. There may have been reasons why he was like that, but it just doesn’t look good at all when he’s on camera.
Not surprised to see NIMBY councils arcing up over the plans to sell Defence land and build housing.
I can see this being a state election issue and popular for the Allan and Albanese governments in most areas, being willing to take on NIMBYs to build more housing. The Liberals will inevitably oppose and the state Greens probably join them on the horseshoe of sadness (I am open to being surprised by the Greens NOT being NIMBY for once but it would be unusual).
Dan by a country mile.
Best wishes Daniel, get well soon.
Hookey, Hookey, Hookey.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:35 pm
I hope someone has done the due diligence. The Tiwi Islands have a bit of a history for being a public funding sump by way of forestry. (The latter is, inter alia, likely responsible for the extinction of the northern subspecies of the Hooded Robin.
_______________________
Previous trees were no good. All sorts of issues.
These new ones are better but time will tell.
Some good people up there now running the show.
“They are a leaderless train wreck. The decades long Liberal lies relating to superior economic management and the falsity of climate change have been exposed.”
Is that not also because Labor worked to fix their own house after the RGR federally and examples like the NSW branch corruption? And to produce a solid workable policy platform, and then adjust it as needed?
In WA the RSL has been quick to voice opposition to the sale of Leeuwin Barracks at Fremantle and Irwin Barracks in the western suburb of Karakatta.
Saying the facilities needed for Army reserves and the like.
And just in case.
Both will be highly sought after by developers.
Leeuwin is prime riverside land (which they don’t make any more).
Saw a comment from an East Fremantle person with community links saying this would be a great opportunity to develop the space for the community.
Good luck with that.
180 billion debt shortly Andrews legacy,tax increases,crime rampant and lots more failures.
Beatie up in qld gave up only because he got sick of winning.
Probably the best labor premier.
ABC 24/11/25
VAGO addresses Victoria’s ‘reliance’ on debt
The VAGO report said the figures also reflected a growing reliance on debt and a subsequent growth in interest payments.
Higher interest rates are also expected to increase the burden of the debt over the next four years, with interest payments rising from $6.8 billion this year to $10.6 billion by 2028–29.
_______________________
Jesus that’s a lot of interest.
Debt repayments help fuel inflation, as investors spend their profits.
Rossmcgsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 9:40 pm
In WA the RSL has been quick to voice opposition to the sale of Leeuwin Barracks at Fremantle and Irwin Barracks in the western suburb of Karakatta.
Saying the facilities needed for Army reserves and the like.
And just in case.
Both will be highly sought after by developers.
Leeuwin is prime riverside land (which they don’t make any more).
Saw a comment from an East Fremantle person with community links saying this would be a great opportunity to develop the space for the community.
Good luck with that.
______________________
Swanbourne is just down the road from Irwin and has massively grown since it took over the civilian rifle range (which was stunning and a shame it closed) – just have to learn to share with the SAS.
Irwin sits right outside a train station and should be planned for maximum mixed used density (basically, build a new Subiaco/Claremont there)
And is there anything more to Leeuwin than a yacht club for officers?
Q: Beatie up in qld gave up only because he got sick of winning.
Andrews must have got sick of winning too..his majority got bigger and bigger each election- his popularity just kept soaring.
I’ve been idly curious about how exactly Peter Mandelson became even tangentially involved in the mining super profits tax debate in 2010 ever since it was revealed in the Epstein Files this week.
Apparently the link was Xstrata’s boss Mick Davis, but why in the world would Mandelson care about an Australian policy like that? Or even Epstein?
This is something that should be investigated. Even though it was 16 years ago, the files were only released this week, and something just stinks about Australian policies being dictated by a cabal of elite pedophiles and their friends.
torchbearer
The last Victorian state election was odd; Labor suffered a big swing only to increase its majority.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 9:47 pm
Debt repayments help fuel inflation, as investors spend their profits.
————————————————
Not many individual investors own state debt. Banks do as a high quality liquid asset (HQLA) or superannuation companies have money there too. Government bonds aren’t something individuals tend to buy or have easy access to.
They are paying that money out to HNWI and holders of term deposits and bank shares, banks also use that money to issue loans.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 10:06 pm
They are paying that money out to HNWI.
—————————————
Yes, people who already have far more money then they tend to spend. These people are unlikely to spend more just because their Government bond return increased by 0.25%. So it is very unlikely Government bonds returns have much effect on inflation at all. As people getting these returns have already enough spending money for their lifestyle.
It is almost like all these market ‘rules’ are meant to hollow out democracy and and deny your kids a home while funding billionaires and their very bad habits on dodgy islands.
Just saying.
Landlord of the Year @ #1324 Wednesday, February 4th, 2026 – 10:03 pm
The big swings against Labor were mostly in its very safe seats to the North and West of Melbourne like Greenvale, St Albans, Kororoit and Mill Park. Meanwhile Labor’s marginal seats in the Eastern suburbs like Ashwood, Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Ringwood swung toward it for the most part.
Keeping this simple, if government wasn’t paying out interest earned, banks would have less money to pay investors, investors would have to accept lower returns or invest elsewhere. This is why the banks asked Peter Costello to issue bonds. I’m not saying government shouldn’t have any debt, only that governments are fueling the economy through interest payments.
I don’t know if there is much relevant policy at all that isn’t dictated by elite paedophiles and their billionaire mates.
Just one example the no right to repair IP rules were 100% designed purely to rip us off, they were never ever good policy, they were always to fund the billionaires and their bad habits.
Kirsdarke
“ I’ve been idly curious about how exactly Peter Mandelson became even tangentially involved in the mining super profits tax debate in 2010 ever since it was revealed in the Epstein Files this week.”
———————————
It’s worth noting that Australia’s mining industry then was 80% foreign owned. (BHP 76%, Rio 84%). The biggest owners of Australian mining operations were in UK and USA.
So it was/is very much in the interests of UK and YSA for our broken mining royalties system to remain broken. Taxes not paid here accrue mostly to shareholders in UK and USA, who then pay tax on those countries.
And people windy I am cynical about AUKUS and our great and powerful friends.
https://www.garbageday.email/p/here-s-how-epstein-broke-the-internet
“Based off the newest tranche of emails and texts released by the Justice Department this weekend, Epstein, at the very least, believed that he was orchestrating the downfall of the global order in the 2010s. In June 2016, he emailed venture capitalist, early Facebook investor, and Palantir founder Peter Thiel, writing, “Brexit, just the beginning.” He then laid out the most succinct mission statement we currently have for what Epstein was trying to accomplish. “Return to tribalism,” he wrote. “Counter to globalization. Amazing new alliances. You and I both agreed zero interest rates were too high, and as I said in your office. Finding things on their way to collapse was much easier than finding the next bargain.”
Epstein’s messages give us a glimpse, one we were never meant to see, of a shadowy world of international espionage, deregulated finance, far-right politics, eugenicist race science, information warfare, and unfathomably intricate human trafficking networks. Epstein wanted to break the internet and, eventually, democracy, to cover his tracks and cash in on the chaos. Here’s everything we know so far about how he planned to do it.”
“And is there anything more to Leeuwin than a yacht club for officers?”
One of Australia’s best wineries!
Lots of unhappiness in SA, esp Adelaide Hills locals, at Albo selling off the farm (in this case barracks) at Woodside.
A somewhat firery exchange between Kenny & Hanson, but they remain, of course, bosom buddies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VGHGpF4MSg
[
Lots of unhappiness in SA, esp Adelaide Hills locals, at Albo selling off the farm (in this case barracks) at Woodside.
}
At times he seems a competent politican but selling the farm to give the money to Trump for nothing at all in return seems a little politically brave.
Clem:
Caught a train in Perth lately? Metronet (which originally appeared in the doomed 2013 election campaign) has changed the network beyond belief. If you’d told me twenty years ago that I’d be able to catch a train to Yanchep, Canning Vale, the airport and Ellenbrook, I’d wonder what you’d been smoking, but here we are. In the process there’s a clutch of outer suburban mortgage belt seats (the sort that tend to change governments) that now have a reason to keep voting Labor.
The whole “state daddy” thing was always a bit silly, though.
This Chris Sidoti (interview with Michael West) fellow seems to have an understanding of basic humanity and Labor values, that Labor seems to lack:
https://www.youtube.com/live/RwRRuLQx5X8?si=JFHy6DTi2c3GfVpN
Andrews will go down as one of the better Premiers of Victoria. Which could be considered faint praise.
Overall I would say he was competent, with very little charm and humor. He had a hulking presence. He reminded me of a cross between Lerch from the Adams Family and an undertaker.
It will be the large infrastructure projects which is his legacy. The Sky Rail, Metro and SRL. Considerable achievements those. Euthanasia is another stand out, although it’s more conservative than I would like.
On the negative side he did little on drug law reform, and the cancelled East West Link seemed like a good idea to me, but I admit that the other infrastructure projects were more important.
It was nauseating that some people made him out as a martyr during COVID. Apparently fronting up to press conferences every morning is an heroic act, but it’s not his fault that his supporters went completely over the top in their worship of him.
I would like an inquiry into his relationship with Crown. There are many questions over this relationship as there are with all recent Victorian Premiers.
And finally Bike Boy. This one really gets to me. Someone close to Andrews, possibly with his knowledge, got Slater and Gordon to represent this boy when what they were really doing was limiting any blowback on Andrews.
I have no idea about the accident and who was at fault but gaslighting a child in a hospital bed really bothers me.
I would like 5 minutes with whoever decided to make that call to Slater and Gordon.
BHP is 76% foreign owned?
When I try to find this figure, I come across the following spreadsheet from BHP itself:
“Substantial shareholders in BHP Group Limited”
https://www.bhp.com/-/media/documents/investors/shareholder-information/2025/250818_bhpgrouplimitedshareholderinformation_asat8july2025.xlsx
It lists the 20 largest shareholders which combined own just over 75% of the company
With this qualifier at the end:
“1. Many of the 20 largest shareholders shown for BHP Group Limited hold shares as a nominee or custodian. In accordance with the reporting requirements, the tables reflect the legal ownership of shares and not the details of the underlying beneficial holders.”
Without some detail on the nominee arrangements, I am somewhat skeptical.
“1. Many of the 20 largest shareholders shown for BHP Group Limited hold shares as a nominee or custodian. In accordance with the reporting requirements, the tables reflect the legal ownership of shares and not the details of the underlying beneficial holders.”
_____________________
I would assume that a lot of those shares are held by nominees for ETFs.
Which is worse:
Starmer appointing Mandelson as Ambassador to the US; or
Albo welcoming Herzog, credibily accused of the foul crime of inciterment to genocide, to tour Australia.
I think in time Albo’s error will be seen to be far worse. Time will tell.
Anniversary of the finding of The Welcome Stranger.
The Welcome Stranger is the name of the largest alluvial gold nugget ever discovered. It was unearthed by Cornish miners John Deason and Richard Oates on 5 February 1869 in Moliagul, 9 miles north-west of Dunolly in Victoria, Australia.
Found only 3 cm (1.2 in) below the surface, near the base of a tree on a slope leading to what was then known as Bulldog Gully, the nugget had a gross weight of 109.59 kilograms (3,523.5 ozt) (241 lb 10 oz). Its trimmed weight was 78 kilograms (2,520 ozt) (210 lbs), and its net weight was 72.02 kilograms (2,315.5 ozt) (192 lbs 11.5 oz).
_______________________
Worth $16.6m at today’s spot price, but would get way more due to its rarity.
Probably $25m at least.
Bike Boy is such a manufactured outrage it ranks up there as one of the scummiest media campaigns in the history of the country.
A 15 year old tearing through the backstreets, hidden from the main road by a massive nest of trees and shrubs so dense you can’t even see there’s a path until you’re already past it, flies out into the street, which is too narrow for more than one vehicle giving even less reaction time to a driver of a person riding across from the other side, and slams into the front corner of a vehicle driven by Andrew’s wife Catherine, then up into the windscreen. Dan calls an ambulance within minutes.
Dan Andrews manages to institute a “massive coverup”. Firstly he stops the Highway Patrol showing up. Then he has two police officers agree to be his patsy, by refusing to call “major collision squad” for a collision that didn’t involve a death and where the driver was clearly sober to both officers. They did all this for Dan despite Dan being in the Opposition at this time.
According to the conspiracy nuts, she (assuming Dan isn’t lying about her being the driver, even though he’d have no reason to lie about it because whoever the driver was, did nothing wrong) was actually the second coming of Peter Brock and instead of stopping like Catherine said she did, she according to the conspiracy, made a sweeping, downhill 90 degree turn at the 70kmph road limit onto the narrow, one-car width road without overturning the car, then deliberately into the 15 year old because she’s also a maniac who loves to maim children.
And that pictures of the aftermath on the car that show the impact in the front corner of the car, then the boy hitting the windscreen mean they’re lying. Even though that damage is consistent with their statements.
The secret to uncovering the entire plot is that Dan when he called 000 said “we’ve hit him”, admitting the secret truth that he was driving, or that she was driving and they deliberately crashed into the boy while speeding. Instead of what a normal person would believe, which is that hitting a 15 year old on a bike in your car is still “hitting them” even if it was an accident and even if it’s caused by the rider.
Bizzcan
That is BHP now. I was referring to the period when the mining tax was being considered back in 2011/12 that is, 15 years ago now. Back then it was BHP Billiton, and was substantially foreign owned. A lot has changed since. They relinquished the London Stock Exchange listing a few years ago.
Rio Tinto remains mainly foreign owned and is still listed on the ASX, London and NY stock exchanges. Australian share ownership is small. UK + US ownership is over 50%. Chinalco owns more of Rio than Australia does.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RIO-TINTO-GROUP-6492854/company-shareholders/
It remains the case that the majority of Australin mining is foreign owned.
https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/investments-and-assets/foreign-resident-investments/foreign-investment-in-australia/register-of-foreign-ownership-of-australian-assets/register-of-foreign-ownership-of-australian-assets-2023-24-report/mining-or-production-tenements-and-exploration-tenements
This was also the case back in 2011 when Gillard was pressured to water down the MRRT.
https://www.australianmining.com.au/foreign-ownership-dominates-mining-industry-rba-2/
Bizzcan
Further to my earlier commentsI don’t know exactly what the true % of foreign ownership of BHP is now, but I am sure it is still very high.
Look at your spreadsheet. Although those top companies all say “Australia” in their name, they are themselves all mostly foreign owned.
For example, HSBC Custody Nominees is owned by HSBC Australia which is 100% owned by HSBC Group, now headquartered in Hong Kong. Same with JP Morgan Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSBC_(Hong_Kong)
This is what I got from Duck Ai. Looks like it is worse now than when I checked back in 2011.
Q: “what percentage of BHP is owned by Australians”?
A: “ As of early 2026, Australian shareholders own approximately 22% of BHP Group Limited. The company’s ownership structure mainly consists of institutional investors, with significant stakes held by global investment managers.”
Socrates says:
Thursday, February 5, 2026 at 1:03 am
Bizzcan
Further to my earlier commentsI don’t know exactly what the true % of foreign ownership of BHP is now, but I am sure it is still very high.
Look at your spreadsheet. Although those top companies all say “Australia” in their name, they are themselves all mostly foreign owned.
For example, HSBC Custody Nominees is owned by HSBC Australia which is 100% owned by HSBC Group, now headquartered in Hong Kong. Same with JP Morgan Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSBC_(Hong_Kong)
This is what I got from Duck Ai. Looks like it is worse now than when I checked back in 2011.
Q: “what percentage of BHP is owned by Australians”?
A: “ As of early 2026, Australian shareholders own approximately 22% of BHP Group Limited. The company’s ownership structure mainly consists of institutional investors, with significant stakes held by global investment managers.”
_______________________________
Sure, but I’m pretty sure that ownership of the company (HSBC Custody Nominees) as a fee collecting operational unit is not the same as ownership of the shares they are in custody of.
For example, squaring away BHP’s disclose, I have no idea where the Future Fund’s 58 million BHP shares sit
https://www.futurefund.gov.au/en/investment/how-we-invest/what-we-invest-in
But I’m happy to be proven wrong – smarter people than I have slipped up on this topic:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/andrew-leigh-slips-up–australian-business-isnt-run-by-five-faceless-investors-20170315-guyof4.html
Without actually getting a hold of anyone’s actual analytical papers, I feel like this is one of those “Australia Institute Facts” repeated over the decades as a truism.
And I’m not saying there is no foreign investment in Australia or Australian mining – there is indeed quite a lot. Just that number looked big to me and wanted to check, especially in a world where Australia invests more into the USA than vice versa.
Starmer’s current Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney is currently being backgrounded against due to his links to Peter Mandelson (from the Epstein files) & that McSweeney helped Mandelson attempt to make the US Ambassadorship a part-time job. Starmer has since admitted that he knew that Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein was after Epstein’s’ first conviction.. and then appointed him ambassador.
This is going from bad to worse for Starmer and with no-one obvious in sight to take over after Rayner’s tax dodging. McSweeney is toast and Starmer’s rule looks terminal already with reports that Labour MP’s being white hot angry.
New thread.