The Financial Review has the first RedBridge Group/Accent Research federal poll since immediately before the Bondi shootings, and it shades last week’s YouGov in recording the highest One Nation vote and the lowest “former Coalition parties“ vote of any poll so far. Labor is at 34%, which is down one on the previous poll but still their best result in any poll since that time. One Nation is up fully nine points to 26%, while the Coalition is down seven to 19%, with the Greens down two to 11%. The increasingly speculative two-party preferred measure has Labor back in the territory of its landslide win last May with a lead of 56-44 over the former Coalition parties. Contrary to a consensus that the One Nation surge will likely prove ephemeral, the poll in fact finds slightly more of the party’s supporters saying their choice is “solid” than for other parties with meaningful sample sizes.
The full release for the poll has helpfully presented favourability ratings for various politicians, which bring together the equally important considerations of net favourability and name recognition. Andrew Hastie shades his erstwhile leadership rival Angus Taylor on net favourability, but both have roughly a third saying they have never heard of them, with many of those who have on the fence about them. Both Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley have taken a knock over the past month, with the latter doing less well than both Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce. Donald Trump scores 16% favourable and 67% unfavourable.
A preferred prime minister question has 37% favouring Albanese, down four on last month; 9% favouring Ley, down three; 8% opting for about the same, down one; and 34% opting for neither, with 12% unsure. A particularly soft 29% reckon the country “generally headed in the right direction”, compared with 55% for wrong direction, and 44% responded to a question on “Australian federal politics right now” with a view that the system needs “major changes”, on top of 15% for the more radical version that “the system needs to be burned down so we can start over”. Twenty-nine per cent held that the system needed minor changes, with only 5% holding that the system is fine as it is. Issue salience questions find an increase in concern about the rate of immigration and national security. The poll was conducted January 22 to 29 from a sample of 1003.
ABC 04/02
The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and fund manager River Capital, have committed $81 million to a new forestry carbon project on the Tiwi Islands in the Northern Territory.
The project will involve planting 30,000 hectares of eucalyptus trees, which are expected to produce 12 million cubic metres of high-value wood products, as well as 5 million nature-based carbon credits over the life span of the project.
The trees will be managed by Midway Limited and the local Tiwi Plantations Corporation, in what is understood to be Australia’s largest First Nations-led carbon initiative.
Speculation on top page of Tiser site that Antic will move to One Nation.
I think Labor will sit the Nepean by-election out. That will make it a testing ground for One Nation in Victoria. It is not natural One Nation territory. Although there is a lot of retired people in the area, they tend to be wealthier.
And if Labor does sit it out, and there is not a high profile independent, that will make it a strange 3 cornered contest between Liberal, One Nation and Green. I don’t think would have been seen before.
Thanks, TM. There’s more on that story here:
https://www.cefc.com.au/media/media-release/cefc-and-river-capital-commit-81m-towards-australia-s-largest-first-nations-led-carbon-initiative/
Diogenes – For a policy point of view Antic jumping ship makes sense. But given that Antic has a lot of control within the SA branch of Liberal party, it doesn’t make much sense. Unless he thinks the Liberals are done for and things he move his base to One Nation to control the party.
Let’s hope that Antic takes his rabidly religious ragtag mob with him to stuff ON right up.
Indian government urges Australia to ‘hold the culprits accountable’ over theft of Gandhi statue in Melbourne
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/gandhi-statue-melbourne-theft-indian-government-australia
Dan Andrews is like John Cain a legacy of massive debt and history will also not be kind.
Labor needs to run in Nepean as all the pressure is on the libs DEI pick as leader.
The conservative voters old school in that electorate would be waiting with baseball bats after what happened to Battin.
“Labor needs to run in Nepean as all the pressure is on the libs DEI pick as leader.
The conservative voters old school in that electorate would be waiting with baseball bats after what happened to Battin.”
=============================================
Some more casual misogyny from PP. How dare the Liberals replace a incompetent man with a slightly less incompetent woman.
If you’re feeling lonely, oppressed and isolated then you need Berlin Wall Pills. Not a joke, saw it first mentioned on the latest episode of QI then did some digging and it’s the real deal. The gullibility of people is a never ceasing wonder.
https://boingboing.net/2024/06/20/homeopathic-berlin-wall-pills-made-from-its-pulverized-concrete-treat-loneliness-isolation-and-oppression.html
My head hurts –
https://homeopathyonline.org.uk/8-2/berlin-wall/
Palmer
It all comes into the light at some stage
A disrupter for the Liberal Party at the direction of the Liberal Party – and now admits to contact with the Trump guru
Pied popper – have you driven around Victoria – for starters level crossings, hospitals, schools, road networks and rail connections etc etc etc
Before you get to support for children and families
How are you travelling on your horse and cart
Palmer might as well join ON. They’re gathering together all the nutters. Hopefully Latham too.
Anymore worthwhile candidates? Pete Evans, Margaret Court, Jacinta Price?
Sitting in QT with Sun Tzu’s Art of War on his desk.
Contemplating this quote:
The split of the Nationals and Liberals is being cemented as the opposition seeks to remove their former Coalition colleagues from parliamentary committee spots, despite Sussan Ley and David Littleproud being yet to finalise the negotiations standing between their parties’ reunification or an indefinite divorce.
However, it is not yet clear whether the opposition will succeed in restoring the committee spots to the Liberals, with Labor refusing to say whether it would vote in favour of the move in the Senate.
The Opposition Leader is given the power to appoint MPs and Senators to committees, and is able to remove them from lower house committees should she choose to do so.
But for the same thing to happen for spots on Senate committees, motions must pass the upper house.
The Liberals lodged a notice of motion to shake up the Senate committees on Wednesday afternoon, which would remove Nationals Senator Matt Canavan from seven committees to be replaced with Liberals including Dave Sharma, Matt O’Sullivan, Jacinta Nampijinpa-Price, Jess Collins and Leah Blyth.
Susan McDonald, Ross Cadell and Bridget McKenzie – the three Nationals senators who broke cabinet solidarity when they crossed the floor last month – will lose their various committee spots to Liberals including Sarah Henderson, Jane Hume, Richard Colbeck, Dean Smith and Wendy Askew.
While the Liberals see the move as uncontroversial and a returning of opposition committee spots to the opposition, the Nationals are arguing that the fact the crossbench now matches the size of the Liberals – thanks to the Coalition split – means this should not occur.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/split-deepens-as-nats-to-be-booted-from-parliamentary-committees-by-libs/news-story/08335fc96aee00f5295bbd5107d8381e?amp
We’ll all know the party’s over for the Libs if Howard and/or Abbott jump on board the ON train(wreck).
BK says
Let’s hope that Antic takes his rabidly religious ragtag mob with him to stuff ON right up.
Good post…upload a good dose of viral evangelistic fervour would do both the Libs and ON some good.
Had to leave my marriage: Melinda Gates on Epstein files’ STD claim against Bill
Melinda French Gates has responded to the latest batch of Jeffrey Epstein files that claimed her former husband and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates caught STD after having sex with Russian girls and then tried to secretly give her medication for the disease.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/melinda-french-gates-ex-husband-bill-gates-jeffrey-epstein-files-emails-std-russian-girls-sex-secretly-medication-antibiotics-respond-breaks-silence-elon-musk-2862741-2026-02-04
“Melinda Gates has responded to the latest revelations in the Jeffrey Epstein files, which claimed that her ex-husband and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates secretly attempted to give her medication after catching sexually transmitted disease from Russian girls. During a podcast interview with NPR, she suggested that Bill Gates’s link to the sex offender might have been the reason behind the end of their 27 years of marriage.
“For me, it’s personally hard whenever those details come up, right? Because it brings back memories of some very, very painful times in my marriage,” she said, adding that her ex-husband and others involved in the Epstein files matter must answer for their behaviour alleged in the fresh batch of documents.
“They need to answer to those things, not me,” the 61-year-old stressed.
She also said that the revelations had caused her “unbelievable sadness”. “Sad. Just unbelievable sadness. Unbelievable sadness…It’s just sadness. I left my marriage. I had to leave my marriage. I wanted to leave my marriage. I felt I needed to eventually leave the foundation. So it’s just sad. That’s the truth,” Melinda Gates said during the podcast.
“
”We’ll all know the party’s over for the Libs if Howard and/or Abbott jump on board the ON train(wreck).”
John Howard condemns Cory Bernadi’s defection to “grievance vehicle” One Nation. Story headline in the Adelaide Advertiser (headline – can’t read paywalled article).
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:15 pm
Sitting in QT with Sun Tzu’s Art of War on his desk.
Contemplating this quote:
“He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War (Chapter 4)
”
He already lost 2 battles within Liberal party. He doesn’t know how to win battles. But is he thinking that he could win the war and usher in golden era Liberty party domination?
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 6:45 pm
Diogenes – For a policy point of view Antic jumping ship makes sense. But given that Antic has a lot of control within the SA branch of Liberal party, it doesn’t make much sense. Unless he thinks the Liberals are done for and things he move his base to One Nation to control the party.
”
I agree with with this analysis.
—————-
I hope someone has done the due diligence. The Tiwi Islands have a bit of a history for being a public funding sump by way of forestry. (The latter is, inter alia, likely responsible for the extinction of the northern subspecies of the Hooded Robin.)
”
Bizzcansays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 6:29 pm
newy boysays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 6:26 pm
Daniel Andrews strikes me as one of the greatest State Premiers Australia has ever had.
______________________
Someone would like a word…
”
Neville Wran and Bob Carr might beg to differ.
During Wran premiership, opposition leader lost his seat.
The media coined a new word for landslides: Wranslides
Todate Bob Carr is the longest serving Labor leader in the country and had massive victories against relatively competent Liberal leaders.
He reduced the government of probably the best best Premier (Nick Greiner) to a minority government after 1 term. Newspoll has never been more than 1991 NSW election eve poll. Just days out from 1991 election, Newspoll predicted a 2PP of 57-43(I think) to L-NP and yet it was reduced to minority government.
I’m more than a little curious to see how Oz ag commodity exports to the EU are treated in the Agreement.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cutting-capital-gains-deductions-opens-door-to-bigger-cuts-20260204-p5nzdz.html
Good! It should be followed up by limiting the number of homes one can negative gear, even though such a move was not part of Labor’s policy platform. It’s rare for a government to have such a majority in the Reps, and with a good chance of getting its legislation through the Senate. Changing economic conditions require a rethink of these big-ticket tax concessions.
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s hard deadline for the Nationals to reform the Coalition has been questioned by Liberal leadership rival Angus Taylor as drawn-out talks between the feuding parties falter.
In a shadow cabinet meeting of Liberal frontbenchers on Tuesday morning, Taylor and his ally James Paterson argued for a loosening of her demand for Nationals leader David Littleproud to agree to conditions on party discipline by the weekend. Three MPs, including regional Liberal Dan Tehan, backed the pair.
Four sources in the room, speaking anonymously about the confidential meeting, said Taylor and Paterson argued that a deadline was appropriate to focus both parties on the task of re-enlivening the Liberal-National agreement. However, the pair wanted talks to continue into next week, so long as they were trending in the right direction before the weekend.
Some Moderate supporters of Ley, led by Senator Andrew Bragg, went in the other direction and backed the deadline. If an agreement is not struck, Ley will permanently appoint Liberals to frontbench spots previously held by Nationals, baking in the rift that has been likened to the 1950s Labor split, which handed the Liberals a generation in power.
Conservatives are suspicious that Ley is using the fight with the Nationals to bolster her authority and rally support among Liberals who remain angered by the rural parties’ move last month to vote against Labor’s hate crimes laws despite a shadow cabinet decision. Ley’s allies, and some MPs who are not in her camp, believe the Liberal leader has been sabotaged by the Nationals and is rightfully playing hardball in response. Giving weight to Ley’s stance, senior Liberal right-wingers in the Senate are backing the weekend deadline.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ridiculous-ley-scoffs-at-leadership-threats-as-peace-talks-with-littleproud-resume-20260204-p5nzdp.html
It’s rare in public life for someone to be liked & admired as Marie Bashir was:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/our-teacher-our-guide-our-compass-city-stops-to-farewell-marie-bashir-20260204-p5nzm4.html
‘I don’t think this was a good decision’: Labor’s Ed Husic holds ‘deep concerns’ over Israeli president Isaac Herzog’s visit
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/04/i-dont-think-this-was-a-good-decision-labors-ed-husic-expresses-concerns-over-israel-president-isaac-herzogs-visit-ntwnfb
“Labor MP Ed Husic has “deep concerns” about the impending visit of Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, saying it is hard to reconcile concepts of social cohesion with the 2023 image of the leader signing an artillery shell about to be dropped on Gaza
:::
He also said he backed the right of Australians to peacefully protest against the actions of the Israeli government over its bombardment of Gaza, calling it a “slur” to link major protests against the war to the Bondi shooting at a Jewish festival.”
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:40 pm
I’m more than a little curious to see how Oz ag commodity exports to the EU are treated in the Agreement.
”
In last week’s EU-India deal, Agricultural and diary products were not part of the deal.
‘Ven says:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:51 pm
”
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:40 pm
I’m more than a little curious to see how Oz ag commodity exports to the EU are treated in the Agreement.
”
In last week’s EU-India deal, Agricultural and diary products were not part of the deal.’
==================
Interesting. Thanks.
Will Howard and/or Abbott jump to ON? No.
But what about Peta Credlin? She may find that her employer compels allegiance to Pauline’s mob.
We’ll know whether Murdoch is ditching the Coalition from what Peta says.
”
Mavissays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:44 pm
It’s rare in public life for someone to be liked & admired as Marie Bashir was:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/our-teacher-our-guide-our-compass-city-stops-to-farewell-marie-bashir-20260204-p5nzm4.html
”
Atleast not in Australia.
Israel accepts health authorities’ Gaza death toll is broadly accurate, saying 70,000 have died
Israeli military’s U-turn in accepting official figures comes after years of attacking data as ‘Hamas propaganda’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/30/israel-military-gaza-death-toll-broadly-accurate
““What other accusations could turn out to be true?” the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said after the briefing. “The Israeli public must ask itself what this belated recognition indicates about the army and the government’s credibility regarding Israel’s conduct in Gaza.””
Dan Andrews has NO peer in Australian politics when it comes to state premiers. In terms of winning elections and getting stuff done that benefits workers, he is unparalleled. A great socialist!
The grift goes on:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/02/04/u-s-india-trade-deal-reduces-solar-tariffs/
Ven:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:52 pm
Who did you have in mind?
Reduce to 33% and then turn it to zero over 10 years.
Ven says at 7:40 pm:
“Neville Wran and Bob Carr might beg to differ.
During Wran premiership, opposition leader lost his seat.
The media coined a new word for landslides: Wranslides
Todate Bob Carr is the longest serving Labor leader in the country and had massive victories against relatively competent Liberal leaders.
He reduced the government of probably the best best Premier (Nick Greiner) to a minority government after 1 term. Newspoll has never been more than 1991 NSW election eve poll. Just days out from 1991 election, Newspoll predicted a 2PP of 57-43(I think) to L-NP and yet it was reduced to minority government.”
=================================
Speaking of Wranslides, New South Wales is going to have another one in a couple of years if the polls are accurate.
@Ven says: Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:40 pm
As a proud Sandgroper I shall not stand for this east coaster’s slander of God Emperor State Daddy!
McGowan dismantled the Liberals more than Neville Wran did in his famed Wranslide. Wran won 63.63% of seats in the Legislative Assembly with a 2pp result of 60.70%, gaining a swing of 9.1%. McGowan on the other hand won 89.83% of Legislative Assembly seats with a 2pp result of 69.70% with a swing of 14.10%. Not only did McGowan dethrone the Liberal leader, he made them lose the title of opposition party.
All hail God Emperor State Daddy. May his victory stay the most decisive election win in Australian history and not lose it to the Poms in Adelaide.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:15 pm
The split of the Nationals and Liberals is being cemented as the opposition seeks to remove their former Coalition colleagues from parliamentary committee spots, despite Sussan Ley and David Littleproud being yet to finalise the negotiations standing between their parties’ reunification or an indefinite divorce.
However, it is not yet clear whether the opposition will succeed in restoring the committee spots to the Liberals, with Labor refusing to say whether it would vote in favour of the move in the Senate.
The Opposition Leader is given the power to appoint MPs and Senators to committees, and is able to remove them from lower house committees should she choose to do so.
But for the same thing to happen for spots on Senate committees, motions must pass the upper house.
The Liberals lodged a notice of motion to shake up the Senate committees on Wednesday afternoon, which would remove Nationals Senator Matt Canavan from seven committees to be replaced with Liberals including Dave Sharma, Matt O’Sullivan, Jacinta Nampijinpa-Price, Jess Collins and Leah Blyth.
Susan McDonald, Ross Cadell and Bridget McKenzie – the three Nationals senators who broke cabinet solidarity when they crossed the floor last month – will lose their various committee spots to Liberals including Sarah Henderson, Jane Hume, Richard Colbeck, Dean Smith and Wendy Askew.
While the Liberals see the move as uncontroversial and a returning of opposition committee spots to the opposition, the Nationals are arguing that the fact the crossbench now matches the size of the Liberals – thanks to the Coalition split – means this should not occur.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/split-deepens-as-nats-to-be-booted-from-parliamentary-committees-by-libs/news-story/08335fc96aee00f5295bbd5107d8381e?amp
”
HH
Interesting conundrum for Littleproud.
Nats are really the tail that wagged the dog.
If the government is seriously thinking about removing the capital gains discount (presumably across the board CPI adjusted instead like elsewhere) – it would be a good time to.
After the 12 months pass where house prices haven’t fallen, no real revenue gained, and housing construction remains stagnant, in the face of communities anger there will still be time for serious migration reform by late 2027.
”
Mavissays:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 8:02 pm
Ven:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 7:52 pm
‘At least not in Australia.’
Who did you have in mind?
”
Nehru and Indira Gandhi come to mind.
Massive crowds (in millions) passed them when they laid down for public viewing after their death. The crowds were crying of loud. Even foreign leaders went to their funerals. For example, Margaret Thatcher, who was PM at the time, was one of the foreign leaders who went to Indira Gandhi funeral.
I didn’t like Morrison attending Marie Basher funeral today. He doesn’t deserve to go to her funeral.
Marles is considering selling defence assets. HMAS Watson, on South Head, would be worth a mint. I served there in the mid-70s and had the best office view in Sydney.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMAS_Watson
As a neutral South Australian I have a lot of respect for both Daniel Andrews and Mark McGowan. Both achieved a lot for their states’ development and electorally.
If I had to choose I would pick McGowan. He did not serve the longest but he went out while still at the top and handed his successor a durable majority.
His electoral success was so great (unprecedented in Australian democracy?) that a gerrymandered upper house system that might have seemed unfixable was finally reformed. He increased the degree of democracy. Its a rare lasting legacy.
Ven:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 8:14 pm
Yes, as measured by sheer numbers, Nehru was popular too, though at least one Sikh wasn’t that impressed with Indira Gandhi. I’d add Mahatma Gandhi to your list, even though he was assassinated by a Hindu.
It seems like Labor is winning landslides in lots of areas recently. First in Western Australia, then Federally, now in South Australia, and in a few years time in New South Wales. We’re living in a once in a lifetime political machine where Labor is just immortal when it comes to insanely good campaigning.
The big psychological problem for the libs is their name. The USA, like it or loathe it dictates how we think about the world – 100 % for the not so well informed but even some small percentage for everyone. Its media mediates how we look at the world at least for English speakers. The liberal name is anathema in rw circles over there and increasingly over here amongst rw characters . Many on rw of the libs must be chomping at the bit to jettison this name.
Bludgeoned Westie:
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 8:07 pm
Wran’s great achievement was to give Labor supporters some hope after Gough was defeated so badly in ’75.
It is fairly standard when a democratic leader is a assassinated that other democratic leaders attend the funeral. It is a bit of a “flying the flag” exercise. Even when they are not in government, it can be expected like happened for Shinzo Abe.
-> BYD’s sales grew from 675 in January 2025 to 5001 this January.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/australian-new-car-sales-in-january-2026-byd-surge-toyota-stumble-keeps-vfacts-up/
Fortescue will soon take delivery of the first two of over 100 electric beasts from XCMG:
https://thedriven.io/2026/02/04/fortescue-to-take-delivery-of-first-massive-battery-electric-trucks-from-china-supplier/
2025 Global Sales:
https://cleantechnica.com/2026/02/03/global-ev-sales-leaders-top-selling-brands-and-oems/
In the first month without subsidies, EV sales plummeted to … 94%:
https://electrek.co/2026/02/03/even-after-cutting-ev-incentives-norway-only-sold-98-diesel-cars-in-january/