The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining sub-samples from the last two monthly national polls, shows next to no change on the result that preceded the Liberal leadership change in early December. The primary votes are Labor 37% (steady), Coalition 27% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), independents 11% (down four) and others 15% (up four). No two-party preferred is provided: my best estimate based on typical preference flows gets Labor close to 60-40, though that would be a few points lower if One Nation provided the bulk of the expanding “others” vote.
Chris Minns holds a 40-18 lead over Kellie Sloane as premier, which is stronger than his 31-19 lead in the last poll with Mark Speakman as Liberal leader. Minns’ net likeability rating increases from plus 14 to plus 25, while Sloane is at plus ten. The sample from the January survey found 49% rating the state government’s response to the Bondi attacks as strong and 19% as weak, with 67% supporting its gun reforms and 16% opposed. The sample was 572 from the January survey and 1145 overall.
It almost seems like since 2005 the New South Wales state election has always been a bellwether for the federal election and vise versa.
In the Liberal Party Tribune (aka 9 Entertainment) there is a headline attributed to the weekly columnist Brandis (a former Liberal Party Senator) that the party in trouble is NOT the Liberal Party
He may not have noticed the number of Teals now representing what were Liberal Party blue ribbon seats or that there are now only 28 MP’s in the Lower House of 150 Seats in the House – and that their polling is tanking further
No doubt he is busy writing his headline for next week
And where is any ALP former member being given equal space by 9 Entertainment – or any column width let alone a headline?