The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining sub-samples from the last two monthly national polls, shows next to no change on the result that preceded the Liberal leadership change in early December. The primary votes are Labor 37% (steady), Coalition 27% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), independents 11% (down four) and others 15% (up four). No two-party preferred is provided: my best estimate based on typical preference flows gets Labor close to 60-40, though that would be a few points lower if One Nation provided the bulk of the expanding “others” vote.
Chris Minns holds a 40-18 lead over Kellie Sloane as premier, which is stronger than his 31-19 lead in the last poll with Mark Speakman as Liberal leader. Minns’ net likeability rating increases from plus 14 to plus 25, while Sloane is at plus ten. The sample from the January survey found 49% rating the state government’s response to the Bondi attacks as strong and 19% as weak, with 67% supporting its gun reforms and 16% opposed. The sample was 572 from the January survey and 1145 overall.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Chris Minns is only 46. I think he’s going to obliterate Bob Carr’s record of time in office.
fyi spelling error, “19% as week”, instead of weak.
The NSW electorate has found Kellie Sloane out. Imagine trying to create a story to make the Bondi Massacre about you? This isn’t TV, Kellie, it’s reality.
But she’s a woman…….
Hmmm DEI hires leave to labor.
I thought she was stopping bullets with her bare hands, the only reason she wasn’t the one wrestling the perps to the ground.
Chris Minns has a talent for managing the daily news cycle. After the Bondi terrorist attack, it was absolutely essential for political leaders to give the appearance of taking swift and decisive action against anti-semitism and Islamic extremism. Minns did that, Albanese did not, and the polls have responded accordingly. And now Minns doesn’t even need to go through the pain of holding an actual Royal Commission, but still gets the political kudos for calling one! There are plenty of valid criticisms of Minns, don’t hold your breath waiting for gambling reform for example, but he is certainly an astute politician.
Minns called the RC quickly because calling it for an incident that took place in Sydney was the obvious course of action for the NSW Premier to take.
“but still gets the political kudos for calling one”
Minns is a genius, he called the NSW RC knowing the rabid far-right media couldn’t resist attacking Albo over there not being a Federal RC at the same time, and while doing so they would also push for extremely quick Federal laws to be introduced but Minns knew that Albo would pass the laws quickly which would cause a Coalition implosion!
Chris Minns holds a 40-18 lead over Kellie Sloane as premier.
Can place my finger with what is wrong with that number.
William Bowe
I couldn’t find PHON numbers in your listed PVs. Is it in ‘Orhers’?
Minns made Albanese do all the hard work and took all the kudos from media.
Federal Liberal politicians (ex and current) praised Minns in order to tear into Albanese and ignored Sloane work. In the process they did not Sloane was left holding the sh*t sandwich.
I like how the Jews of the eastern suburbs have quickly forgotten the Wollahra rail station that made Minns non grata
So Minns handled the outfall of the attack OK and Sloane didn’t. Nothing else to see here.
Murdoch Media will be distraught.
Minns has picked up a handy little bonus from his reaction to Bondi versus that of Sloane who has opposed increased housing density in the eastern suburbs. This month Minns was speaking at the currently undeveloped Woollahra station site where ground testing is occurring to enable construction of the station and associated housing above it.
Well the change in leadership was worthwhile. Labor should pick up a swathe of seats including some surprises on these numbers. They’ll pick up Ryde, they may pick up Epping and Hornsby.
I thought Minns, or NSW Labor, would have a “4” in front of their primary but these are solid enough figures. I think he’s the best retail Premier in Oz atm. He should have a teflon run to the next NSW election, and good on him.
pied pipersays:
Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 7:22 am
But she’s a woman…….
Hmmm DEI hires leave to labor.
————————————-
Misogyny leave to the LNP, like PP, they are well versed in it.
Minns is a very astute media performer and communicator, and he gets fair treatment from both the Daily Telegraph and 2GB(he has a regular weekly spot with Ben Fordham). I think the talented ministers in his team are John Graham, Ryan Park, Rose Jackson and Daniel Mookey.
Kellie Sloan seemingly will be tougher opposition for him than Mark Speakman was, but so far she’s been fairly ordinary in my opinion, and her shadow front bench is lacklustre.
Taking all that into account, I won’t be surprised if the 2027 election brings in another minority Labor Government, then again the rise of One Nation and optional preferential voting does the Coalition no favours either.
NSW has an opposition leader?
Kellie Sloan must owe people a lot of favours is all I’ll say. She sacked the only Liberal MP from the Central Coast as Shadow Minister for the Central Coast and replaced him with someone from Sydney!
Kellie Sloan hasn’t performed terrible; it was just a case of her being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Ley, other federal Liberals and the conservative media did her no favours by playing Minns off against Albanese.
If she had not been opposition leader at the time of the attack, she would have merely been the local MP for the area and might have got a better run in the media. And she could have then used that as a springboard taking over from Speakman.
I noticed some other posters were critical of her narrative of her actions during the events – but in moments of chaos and confusion peoples’ memories and recollections can get muddled. She claims to have heard a shot or two but they could easily have been other sounds that she thought were gunshots. I would be unwilling to attack her over that.
She claims to have heard a shot or two but they could easily have been other sounds that she thought were gunshots. I would be unwilling to attack her over that.
++++++++++
I don’t care if she has memory lapses as a private citizen. But as a Leader of the Opposition, you don’t get to make crap up. Better to keep her mouth shut.
Ven says:
Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 8:41 am
William Bowe
I couldn’t find PHON numbers in your listed PVs. Is it in ‘Orhers’?
================
Ven,
It’s tucked away in the “others” section, which has moved from 11 to 15%.
If you click on the “others” box, you’ll see the age breakdown of movements.
It look’s like the >55’s age group has moved from 12% to 21%, which is probably most (not all) of the Hanson vote in NSW.
Resolve Monitor has been updated here.
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Click on the “NSW” box, and then scroll down to the primaries.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 27 Green 10 IND 11 others 15
My 2PP estimate about 59-41 by last election flows, but probably slightly lower as some of “others” will be One Nation surge.
Minns can keep this political capital in the bank. It is NSW Labor so it will be needed later.
Key update:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 0
Probably False 3
Definitely False 1
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 3
why is chris minns getting favour out of Bondi?
He and his police dept were to a very large extent responsible for the catastrophe – why not checks on events of this nature, esp in term of organisers? was it implicitly political? why no police presence? Minns was more responsible than Albo – who has maintained a large security commitment for ther demography. Of course there is also Asio.
It looks like Labor in New South Wales is heading towards a landslide victory in the 2027 state election if these polls are replicated in the actual results.
With these numbers Labor can take Terrigal in 2027!
Is it just me or are NSW Labor somehow performing as well as Roger Cook and WA Labor according to this poll?
If that gunman had been done for saying “gl*****se the in****da” instead of for mere DV, he wouldn’t have been out on bail.
Kellie Sloan, the great ‘magic mike’ Hail Mary appears to have failed spectacularly with Minns maintaining a larger than 2-1 lead over her in the preferred premier stakes.
I’m confident Kellie will hold Vaucluse at the next election but beyond that is unknown.
Minnsey will be unstoppable
Hi…phon is absent in nsw…even in new England. Seems a bit strange that their federal poll result is not replicated at least in part in nsw.
Lance Baker says:
Sunday, January 25, 2026 at 5:32 pm
Hi…phon is absent in nsw…even in new England. Seems a bit strange that their federal poll result is not replicated at least in part in nsw.
Yep, I always found that the Libertarians(Liberal Democrats) were more popular than Pauline in NSW. Though Pauline had a cohort of Boomer Bogans that adored her racism.
Yep, I always found that the Libertarians(Liberal Democrats) were more popular than Pauline in NSW. Though Pauline had a cohort of Boomer Bogans that adored her racism.
++++
C@t
I’d always thought the Shooters etc was the force, but mainly because of a lot of that demographic were already into that agenda. “Plain speaking” right wing minor parties have existed in NSW for a long time, and the Upper House was fruitcake central, with Fred Nile etc for those who like that sort of thing.
Corleone,
I will never forgive Neville Wran for enshrining Optional Preferential Voting in the NSW Constitution! Look what it’s done to the Upper House! For every Alex Greenwich or Animal Justice, and Legalise Cannabis, you have a Libertarian, 2 former One Nation, and the 2 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. A motley crew for passing legislation.
Agree C@t
I think it was momentary opportunism in the early 80s, come back to bite us big time. Wran was a towering figure would could have all these nuts on toast, but didn’t allow for that one day he would be gone, and less capable Labor leaders would have to deal with them.
What are the chances of there being more Teals elected in Northeastern Sydney, because I think even with the Optional Preferential System that New South Wales has I think with the Liberals vote being this low as well as Labor probably putting the Liberals last, or close to last in the “How-To-Vote Card” pamphlets I think they could have a better shot at being elected this time compared to 2023.
‘Hmmm DEI hires leave to labor.’
If I recall correctly, Pied Piper is a ‘Sand groper’. Considering the nature of the federal Senate and its constitutionally enshrined ‘equity’ and ‘inclusion’, perhaps you should cease blubbing about NSW Liberal leadership appointments, and put your energy towards a referendum to re constitute the Federal upper house based on population size, and not the status quo ‘DEI’ principles.
OPV is bolted on in the lower house, not the upper house. (The latter got fixed after the 1999 tablecloth election.) If you don’t like the fact that multiple minor-right parties regularly get elected to the upper house, maybe don’t have a seat quota of 4.5%.
As much as I don’t like most of those parties (specifically Fred Nile and his “Christians”), it seems to keep the state Libs relatively sane. If there’s an electorally viable god-bothering / gun nut / techbro party, people from that lunatic fringe will join that party instead of practicing entryism on the Libs (as you can see in other states with Nick Goiran, Alex Antic, Moira Deeming etc), and the continual election-losing dream of “if we just shift further right, the voters will see the light and we shall be the 1000 year Reich!” won’t take root so easily. NSW Libs ran the state for 12 years without going crazy like that.
As for OPV: Animal Justice actually managed to chase down One Nation (with Hanson as the candidate) on preferences a few elections ago under that system. Qld Labor returned to power in 2015 with a potent “put the LNP last” campaign. It might be a bit harder but it’s certainly not impossible – the trick is not to assume potential second preferences are owed to your party.
The 2027 campaign, if the Liberals are still in free fall, will be interesting for the Legislative Assembly.
If so, I believe that they will pursue a Vote 1 Liberal strategy, in order to maximise their own vote and attempt to minimise any potential preference flow, elsewhere.
It is a strategy which they have adopted since their 2011 success and I doubt whether they would change from that position.
Looking at the current NSW Assembly pendulum, they have twelve seats on margins less than 5%.
Some of these could be winnable for the ALP, as they have held these seats in the past, and some could be winnable by a Teal or a suitable Independent candidate.
If, 2025 Federal Election results are any guide then the following North Shore / Northern Beaches seats are in play for the ALP orIndependent candidates:
Ryde – 0.1%
Pittwater – 0.8%
Winston Hills – 1.8%
Willoughby – 2.5%
Epping – 4.7%
Manly – 4.7%
Lane Cove – 5.5%
North Shore – 5.6%
Hornsby 8.0%
I would like to see ALP pre-selections, if they haven’t already been made, as well as prominent Teal/ Independent candidates being selected and creating a profile in these seats within the next couple of months.
MaccaRB,
Put Terrigal in the definite possibilities basket.
bird of paradox,
Wise words.
Montana,
A useful perspective to take on DEI. 🙂
C@t @ 7.03am
I would love to sit overlooking Nth Avoca Beach, in March 2027, knowing that it has been freed from the Liberals.
My above list was in reply to Thomas Brian Mutter in reference to the North Shore / Northern Beaches.
Do you whether the young fella who was the candidate in 2023 is prepared for a non, next year?
Re Bird of Paradox @3:18AM.
”As much as I don’t like most of those parties (specifically Fred Nile and his “Christians”),
seems to keep the state Libs relatively sane. If there’s an electorally viable god-bothering / gun nut / techbro party, people from that lunatic fringe will join that party instead of practicing entryism on the Libs (as you can see in other states…”
Interesting point – I hadn’t thought of that. The NSW Liberals more closely resemble the Liberals of a past era in that their centre of gravity is Centre-Right, not Right-wing. The NSW Liberal Party contains some actual liberals who are able to influence policy. Further, it doesn’t do culture warring day and night. This is quite unlike the Federal, Queensland and Victorian Liberals which are planted firmly on the Right, veering into Far Right.
I’d imagine the 2025 federal results in the northern suburbs of Sydney would encourage Labor to take those seats more seriously than has been the case in the past (and encourage candidates to nominate who might not have been interested in flying the flag in an unwinnable contest).
I bet the state MPs for North Shore and Manly would look at the notional 2PP result in Warringah, and would probably be sweating right now.
Macca RB says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:15 am
C@t @ 7.03am
I would love to sit overlooking Nth Avoca Beach, in March 2027, knowing that it has been freed from the Liberals.
My above list was in reply to Thomas Brian Mutter in reference to the North Shore / Northern Beaches.
Do you whether the young fella who was the candidate in 2023 is prepared for a non, next year?
Pretty much assured, MaccaRB. And he’s got a cute baby now to take around for people to fuss over. 🙂
Ignoring One Nation and pretending they don’t exist won’t make them magically disappear. Doesn’t say a lot for the credibility of this polling company.