Newspoll for The Australian and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers have reported their first results for the year:
• Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at a seemingly robust 55-45, in from 58-42 in the last Newspoll way back in mid-November. However, the headline-grabber here is that One Nation is ahead of the Coalition on the primary vote: Labor is down four to 32%, the Coalition down three to 21%, One Nation are up seven to 22%, and the Greens are down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 53%, while Sussan Ley is respectively up two to 28% and up one to 56%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 54-27 to 51-31. The sample for the poll was 1224 – as well as a full set of results for questions on leader attributes, we will have to wait on field work dates, though presumably it was conducted Monday to Friday.
• Resolve Strategic has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 52-48 from 54-46 in a poll conducted in the immediate wake of the Bondi shootings. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady on 28%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation up two to 18%. Anthony Albanese is down a further five points on approval to 35% and seven on disapproval to 56%, compounding an eight-point drop and six-point increase in the previous poll, and lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed substantially, from 41-26 to 33-29. Sussan Ley is down one on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 42%, despite her response to the Bondi attack being rated good by 53% and poor by 29%, compared with 32% and 56% for Albanese. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1800.
I think Albo did a Bradbury is no insult. He stayed upright and let the Liberal, national and Murdoch crash.
Steve777says:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:03 pm
I never understood why Stephen Bradbury is mocked.
Stephen Bradbury stayed upright and in control over the whole course and skated over the finish line. All of the other competitors finished sliding around on their arses crashing into walls well short of the finish.
There was a clear winner in that contest and a lot of clear losers.
_____________________
It may or may not be a mocking phrase “doing a Bradbury” to the recipient, but I don’t think anyone has ever mocked Bradbury himself.
My recollection was that he was very well received as a humble Aussie battler who shamed a bunch of arrogant yanks, especially at a time when Australia’s principal engagement of the Olympics was through Roy and HG.
https://youtu.be/jagh3l5lMvY?
Diogenes @ #1800 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 10:07 pm
No. That’s how Trump operates, he behaves so outrageously that most respectable people just don’t know how to handle him.
I mean, how would you expect a reasonable CEO to act if they have to deal with Trump who would in fact jump on the conference table and shit his diaper and be expected to make a good situation out of that?
Most would just take their bags and resign if it came to that. And Trump just keeps on winning.
Its simple.
Albo knows his opponents, which means he knew something like this probably would happen once he put forward the legislation.
With a coalition split now looking inevitable, and seemingly permanent, the all three major right wing parties could benefit.
For one nation, the benefits are obvious. A coalition split makes them look stable and future focused, and gives them room to consolidate the right and take the fight to Labor.
For the nationals, they can now pursue a more conservative agenda to protect themselves from one nation, whilst remaining as a viable partner post election for both the liberals and one nation.
For the liberals, who are in the stickiest spot, they have also the most options. They could move to the right to compete against the nationals and one nation, they can stabilise back into the national right party of Scott Morrison, or they could moderate and take the fight to Labor, without the nationals holding them back.
It will be a very interesting term of government, especially to see if what will become of regional parties such as the lnp or the country liberals.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:12 pm
Diogenes @ #1800 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 10:07 pm
Any chance the world will gang up against Trump?
They could bring him to his knees in about a week.
——————————————
No. That’s how Trump operates, he behaves so outrageously that most respectable people just don’t know how to handle him.
————————————————
If cornered, like a rat, he might get very dangerous and push that button.
Mostly Interested @ #1771 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 9:45 pm
It’s not my scenario. It’s Albo’s.
Entropy @ #1806 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 10:15 pm
The one that orders a diet Coke? It doesn’t work – he’s still morbidly obese.
I should also add that a liberal moderation could be likely and effective as frydenberg returns.
“You don’t seem to be able to come to grips with the idea it is not nice to displace the native population. Israel had a choice, they chose Apartheid. It will end when international support is removed, just as it did for South Africa.”
Millions of Arabs live in Israel, work, attend universities and believe that their life in Israel is better than living in the Arab world. Even if they are not treated as equals by the Israeli Right, this is hardly Apartheid, an effective one-party state where non-white people were systemically excluded from all aspects of life and were disenfranchised from the vote.
I thought that when Trump lost his marbles, his demonstration of this publicly would have been something like grabbing his crotch in public constantly or shoving someone over. Something physical.
But no it was wanting Greenland because he didn’t win a Noble prize in a year in which he was not nominated.
The Liberals base is mostly the Sky News people, Ultra right wing Trumpites. Thats why Ley is never gonna work. The moderates bailed awhile ago as “teals”.
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 9:02 pm
Catching up with today’s political news. Unbelievable. So there really was no agreed LNP position on the legislation before it went to a vote. That was incompetent.
I said earlier today that the LNP had wedged itself with its demands for legislative action over Bondi. I see no reason to change that view.
The damage this will do to urban Liberals will surely help Teals survive. I wonder how Tim Wilson is feeling about this? Josh Frydenberg can forget about it IMO.
”
Socrates
But as per Australian media Josh Frydenburg is the “Father of the nation”. No I am not kidding.
“The one that orders a diet Coke? It doesn’t work – he’s still morbidly obese.”
—————————-
“AI Overview
Yes, aspartame and other artificial sweeteners can cause bloating, gas, and stomach upset in some people, often because the body doesn’t fully absorb them, leading to fermentation by gut bacteria, or by negatively impacting the gut microbiome, though reactions vary widely. While sugar alcohols (like sorbitol) are a more common culprit for digestive issues, aspartame itself, especially when unabsorbed, can also produce gas in the large intestine, causing bloating and discomfort, particularly for those with sensitive guts or conditions like IBS. “
Landlubbersays:
Millions of Arabs live in Israel, work, attend universities and believe that their life in Israel is better than living in the Arab world. Even if they are not treated as equals by the Israeli Right, this is hardly Apartheid, an effective one-party state where non-white people were systemically excluded from all aspects of life and were disenfranchised from the vote.
______________________________
I just note that under Apartheid black people worked and attended black universities.
Q:they could moderate and take the fight to Labor, without the nationals holding them back.
They have to get past 6 Teals (and grab all their seats) before getting anywhere near Labor ….
That’s a long and treacherous road….
B. S. Fairman @ #1810 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 10:22 pm
It really is though. He wants Greenland because of its size on the Mercator map, where it’s bigger than Australia.
It really comes down to dicks in the end with the far-right.
Diogenes says:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:07 pm
Any chance the world will gang up against Trump?
They could bring him to his knees in about a week.
==========
That’s the problem. They can’t.
He knows the “powers” arraigned against him are as weak as water.
Look at the polling in the U.K., Germany & France. None of them can galvanise more than 20% of the popular vote, with Macron almost in single digits.
The party topping the poll’s respectively are all “pro Trump”, ie: Reform, AfD & Le Pen.
Meloni & Orban are lurking in Europe. They’re both “pro Trump” too, despite the headlines.
The E.U. Commission President – Ursula Von Der Leyen – can pontificate all she likes.
She barely survived two “votes of no confidence” last year, but more importantly, she doesn’t control an army.
I’m guessing Trump will take Greenland when he wants. What exactly are the above leaders going to do? Bomb New York?
The King of Denmark will probably be the last man standing.
The only Australian interest, being his wife – Queen Mary (a Tasmanian by birth).
Lol the folk at Macrobusiness are so upset they have already formally endorsed One Nation as the true opposition:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/01/one-nation-is-now-the-federal-opposition/
Kirsdarke at 9.06 p,
You said: “I think Wilson is secure enough in Goldstein. Most of the voters there are arseholes like him.”
An unusually poor and pathetic comment. How would you know most of them at all?
Get back to evidence-based commenting. Goldstein is the most marginal Lib seat.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-federal-post-election-pendulum.html
According to current polls, the Lib vote has dropped a lot, before their latest fracas.
Additionally, demographic change (new younger voters) over 3 years would deprive Wilson of more than his margin. Even if he is LOTO in 2028, his days are numbered.
It would take a lot of effort for Zoe Daniel to run again, but the more the Lib vote drops, and the more the Libs go hard right in response, the more her chances rise.
Q: What exactly are the above leaders going to do?
Stop buying US Treasury bonds. The nuclear option.
torchbearersays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:33 pm
Q: What exactly are the above leaders going to do?
Stop buying US Treasury bonds. The nuclear option.
———————————————
Selling them in mass together is the nuclear financial option. It would significantly push up the cost of servicing USA debt. They could push it all the way down to junk bond status.
Dr Doolittle @ #1819 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 10:32 pm
Well they re-elected him with all his arsehole tactics so that pretty much proves it.
And also his sidekick James Newbury in the state district of Brighton in 2022.
The strange thing about all this; the legislation has passed. Blowing up the LNP isn’t going to change anything.
frednksays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:40 pm
The strange thing about all this; the legislation has passed. Blowing up the LNP isn’t going to change anything.
———————————————
Blowing up the LNP is like the celebratory fireworks at the end of an event.
If the European governments don’t act in some way when Trump seizes Greenland that will be the end of their governments. The popular opinion will be so immense that they will be turfed out by their own party’s.
In France, the entire political spectrum (form the far right to the far left) have made statements that any overtaking of Greenland cannot go unanswered.
In the UK, similar things have been muttered.
The presence of US forces in Europe will be unstainable. The public won’t stand for it. That means the US bases in Germany and the UK will be closed. That will limit the ability of America to project force into the Middle East.
The level of trust is gone. America has already ceased to be seen as an ally by the population and now view America as an enemy. And there will be a new President in 3 years time, who will give Greenland back to the Greenlandic people. But the damage will already have been done – they can’t be friends with a place that might elect another crazy person in 4 years time or 8 years time etc. NATO is dead. The last rites have just not been written.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks for your comments on Goldstein, which flesh out in more detail my gut feeling. Tim Wilson isn’t exactly Dux of Charm School, so I don’t see where any vote recovery is coming from for him.
I can’t see how this mess leaves the Liberals better chances of retaining or recovering any of the Teal’s target seats. Opposing the gun laws will do them no favours in inner urban seats.
That is a big deal because, even if the right wing forces somehow recover and reorganise, whether under ON or the LNP, they still can’t form government assuming that Labor holds onto its traditional seats.
Its a long way out, but defeating Labor on 94 seats in one term was always going to be a challenge. I think it is all but impossible now.
And we haven’t even considered what this week might have done to the LNP’s Senate chances. Several LNP senators will be cooked on a 21% PV, if they can’t claw back % from ON.
Frednk
“ The strange thing about all this; the legislation has passed. Blowing up the LNP isn’t going to change anything.”
True. That shows the level of intellect left in the LNP party room. No strategy, just some emotional and egotistical reactions.
nadia at 10.28 pm
Now look at the polling data for West rather than eastern Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election
The fascist vote has been marginally dropping in the West for the last few months. Although Frau Merkel came from the East, she won because of her support in the West. The fascists will never win electorally without stronger support in the West.
Nationally, the CDU has been around 25% for many months, not below 20%.
There is still a big difference between Germany and Sweden, where the fascists have been incorporated into the Tory government, after being ostracised for decades.
Karma for seeking to politicise a national tragedy, though it might not have seemed it would play out that way.
They were so busy trying to lay blame they forget they also had to have a constructive solution if they wanted to look superior.
Goody! Goody! Goody! One Nation are going to have to act like the ‘real’ Opposition now?
I can’t wait!
Somebody bring me some popcorn!
If the coalition splits and the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation go into the next federal election as separate parties, that will be the greatest gift imaginable for the ALP. The one thing of which everyone will be certain is that not one of the three conservative parties would be able to win enough seats to govern in its own right. So any government that might be formed from them would have to be negotiated after the election. But in such a situation, voters would have no way of knowing what policies would come out of such negotiations. And the fate of policies on contentious issues such as climate change and immigration would be the most uncertain of all. The Labor campaign would almost write itself, something along the lines of “If you don’t know, vote No”.
Kirsdarke at 10.37 pm and Socrates at 10.44 pm
Wilson ran a very dirty campaign, and just scraped home because of the very large swing to him on postal votes. If most of those who switched to him were Jewish Australians of the moderate Zionist persuasion, how would they feel about the Libs now undermining a stronger response to the Bondi massacre, after grandstanding for a month?
Socrates, you are correct re the historic significance of the Teal victories for Labor.
Remember the false confidence of Mr Fubar, probably a nicer man than Mr Wilson?
It is no accident that the ANU study of the 2022 election, edited by three women, was called Watershed (and not because a nice bloke with an Italian name had become PM):
https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/series/australian-federal-election/watershed
Fun fact: Denmark provides 75% of US insulin.
B. S. Fairman,
You make a good point there. The Europeans should play the cards that they have against Trump – the American bases in their countries. All they have to say to him is, you take Greenland, we take your bases. I think he’d soon TACO then.
Pi – I brought that up a few days ago here. Stealing Greenland will create a public health crisis in America…. It is a crazy idea. Everyone but the MAGA diehards know it is, yet the Republicans are too chicken shit to do anything about it.
Michaelsays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 11:00 pm
If the coalition splits and the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation go into the next federal election as separate parties, that will be the greatest gift imaginable for the ALP.
___________________
Maybe. Depending on the coordinated right wing money, an actual full Libs/Nats split gives three large right wing parties (One Nation , Libs, Nats) who can max out the election spending cap vs two large left wing parties (Labor, Greens) who can do so.
A 2027/28 election may be one where the collective right substantially out-spends the collective left.
Darcysays:
Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 10:19 pm
I should also add that a liberal moderation could be likely and effective as frydenberg returns.
——————————————–
If Frydenberg was planning a return he would have done so already. I suspect there is a very good reason why he hasn’t and want.
Bizzcan – Are you forgetting that Palmer outspent everyone in 2022 and 2025 – all for a sole senator of questionable value?
Money can only get you so far any more. TV and Radio ads are no longer as important as they once were. Too much money and end up spending on stupid trucks like Advance did at the last election – I am not sure how many votes there are in causing more traffic!
Coalition chaos takes heat off PM’s failures
Just when Anthony Albanese was in dire trouble, the ineptitude, rivalries and delusion of Liberal and National MPs and senators has once again made the Coalition ‘the story’
Dennis Shanahan
Poor bloke can’t take a trick . He can’t bring himself and his cronies to realise his rag ,the MSM and the dickheads at Sky News after Dark are backing a pack of complete losers that can get barely 20% of the punters votes nowadays. Albo isnt in as much trouble as he makes out either. Even that numpty would realise that Albo would still get 94 seats on those Newspoll numbers
Dr Doolittle @ #1833 Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 – 11:00 pm
Most of the “Brighton Arseholes” I refer to are those who object to social housing be built in their area, where it makes perfect sense for such a city as Melbourne to have high density residences be built close toward railway stations on the Sandringham line.
Of course most people in that area are NIMBY’s who would fight tooth and nail to prevent any development of that kind to happen in their area for any “poor people” to make their residence.
Plus there’s the fact that Tim Wilson is such an arrogant entitled arsehole that he got away with his tactics and is now regarded as a Liberal Hero in narrowly winning Goldstein, it makes me nauseous.
“Just when Anthony Albanese was in dire trouble.”
He was? 94 seats and a workable senate is “dire trouble”?
They could just dump US stock. Or not but bonds. Or ask for the money back that the US owes their banks.
Obviously an economic option is best.
Diplomacy not so much.
“Remember the false confidence of Mr Fubar, probably a nicer man than Mr Wilson?”
—————————————-
Are you suggesting Tim Wilson doesn’t honour his bets too?
Though I was surprised by how many posted saying they missed Fubar?
My suggestion for those missing him is to just pretend Landlubber is Fubar instead.
Diogenes – Don’t forget there is a lot of European money in US Municipal bonds. Americans hate taxes but they hate local taxes even more. Higher Municipal bond rates means higher land taxes.
nadia, your post about Marles made me LOL, but it was also… a lot.
“Typical Victorian male”, “pussyfoots around”, “playing with his hair”, “a kitten would maul him”… what are you suggesting? HAHA
Anyways, is it a coincidence the Coalition implodes (for the second time) on the exact day Ley overtakes Downer as the shortest-serving Liberal leader? They really don’t want her lasting a moment longer, do they?
Need 4 liberals to defect to the Independents, and with a broken Coalition the Independents make their own agreement and become the official opposition.
Shadow Prime Minister Bob Katter?
USA is heavily indebted at present with large budget deficits. They effectively rely on getting low interest loans due to their role in the global banking system.
Foreign investors calling in loans, or not buying T bills, or withholding further credit, would hurt them badly.
Bizzcan at 11:10 pm
In the scenario I outlined, the proto-coalition would in effect be going into the election without settled policies. They were criticised last year for inadequate policy development; under the scenario, the situation for them would be quantum leaps worse. I can’t see how any amount of money could paper over cracks that big. Labor would run a targetted campaign, telling urban voters they could wind up with the most repellent National Party or One Nation policies, while giving the opposite message in rural areas. And there would be no answer. What we are really seeing now is the culmination of quite a long period of ideological divergence on the right in Australia. It’s easier to handle when you are in government, as the risk of losing power is a strong adhesive; but when you look like you are going to be out of power for some time, the schisms come to the fore.
“I think Albo did a Bradbury is no insult. He stayed upright and let the Liberal, national and Murdoch crash.”
Anthony Albanese consults cabinet. He has ran a tight ship and been more collaborative then Kevin Rudd and Scott Morrison. He has been smart enough to stay out of the fray with leadershit contests too. That isn’t luck or doing a Bradbury that some have peddled on here.