Newspoll for The Australian and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers have reported their first results for the year:
• Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at a seemingly robust 55-45, in from 58-42 in the last Newspoll way back in mid-November. However, the headline-grabber here is that One Nation is ahead of the Coalition on the primary vote: Labor is down four to 32%, the Coalition down three to 21%, One Nation are up seven to 22%, and the Greens are down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 53%, while Sussan Ley is respectively up two to 28% and up one to 56%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 54-27 to 51-31. The sample for the poll was 1224 – as well as a full set of results for questions on leader attributes, we will have to wait on field work dates, though presumably it was conducted Monday to Friday.
• Resolve Strategic has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 52-48 from 54-46 in a poll conducted in the immediate wake of the Bondi shootings. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady on 28%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation up two to 18%. Anthony Albanese is down a further five points on approval to 35% and seven on disapproval to 56%, compounding an eight-point drop and six-point increase in the previous poll, and lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed substantially, from 41-26 to 33-29. Sussan Ley is down one on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 42%, despite her response to the Bondi attack being rated good by 53% and poor by 29%, compared with 32% and 56% for Albanese. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1800.
The shift to One Nation is continuing. If they had a more professional party, they could become quite a force.
So, the 2PP has only gone south for Labor by two points. There’s plenty of time to recover, though Albanese will need to lift his game. At this time, he’s too reactive. He needs to get on the front foot.
After the sewage storm of the past month I’ll take 52/48 any day of the week.
NSW (Fed figures)
* ALP 31% (steady)
* LNP 26% (down 3)
* ON 20% (steady)
* GRN 12% (up 3)
These are the really important numbers out of all of them. NSW was ground zero.
The ALP are steady
Sussan Ley and her caterwauling opportunists are down 3
Not that I know for sure but to my eyes it looks like 3 went to Labor from the LNP, 3 went to The Greens from Labor (maybe as reward for coming to the party to pass the Environment laws) and ON may have reached peak ON in NSW, but were certainly not rewarded either for their showy political opportunism after the Bondi Massacre.
Dio
“hydrogen being killed to prop up Whyalla” was eminently sensible. The original proposal for a hydrogen power station only made sense as industry policy to create demand for H2 which could eventually be supplied to Whyalla to make green iron.
Priorities change. That money was better spent keeping Whyalla alive. Moreover, the likely buyer, Bluescope, I suspect has little interest in green iron.
Shocking poll for labor were up what 57-43 earlier last year ?
Hastie will boost libs later this year when leader and get lots of one nations votes which will give the libs the lead.
The mob have figured out leftie Albanese .Big chance sadly of a interest rate increase in a couple of weeks due to Fed labor failures.
That will really sting.
Ps Trumps women are hot from Ice Barbie’s to Leavett etc
From previous thread
Vensays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:28 pm
”
Shogunsays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:59 pm
Bushfire Bill:
Wouldn’t it be far easier if God spoke in less mysterious ways than murdering 173 people, burning down 2,000 houses, and causing catastrophic Queensland floods?
He has form. Something to do with an ark, and two of every animal. Except the dinosaurs.
”
Dinosaurs did not exist at that time. But if you ask Sarah Palin, VP candidate of 2008 of US Presidential elections, humans and dinosaurs lived together 6000 years ago. 🙂
So to point out 2 datapoints in the historically questionable Resolve (don’t @ me)
1. Victoria Preferred PM
Ley 34
Albo 29
2. Rest of Australia Greens primary of 6.
Neither ones are plausible.
Hmmm 52-48.
Looking like a 50-50 to me.
My only reasoning for this is that the O.N. vote has mainly come off the LNP, and there is very little prospect of ex-LNP voters who now give their vote to O.N. , deciding to preference Labor ahead of their former party.
I believe the “non respondent” allocated pollsters preference the O.N. flow to the LNP at 74.5%.
I would strongly suggest it should preference at around the 80% mark today.
Diogenes @ #1 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 5:54 pm
When the Liberal Party sort their shit out and the “protest” element of the growth of One Nation diminishes, it will be interesting to see how much of One Nation’s support remains permanently parked. I’ve predicted for quite a while that they might start becoming a bit like the Greens are on the other end of the spectrum and might end up getting 12 Senators, each at the expense of what was traditionally the third Liberal seat in each state’s Senate election – similar to what the Greens did with Labor in the last two decades.
Diogenes says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:24 pm
The shift to One Nation is continuing. If they had a more professional party, they could become quite a force.
Only from the LNP and they didn’t pick up any points in NSW. Where they tried to take advantage of the Bondi Massacre.
”
pied pipersays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:32 pm
Shocking poll for labor were up what 57-43?
Hastie will boost libs later this year when leader and get lots of one nations votes which will give the libs the lead.
The mob have figured out leftie Albanese .Big chance sadly of a interest rate increase in a couple of weeks due to Fed labor failures.
”
I expect exactly this comment from PP. PP, Jolly Jumbuck and agitprop don’t surprise at all.
C@t
The NSW figures, if true, would be the ones most impacted by the Bondi shootings. So steady as she goes in the Premier State.
I’m intrigued to see what Minns rates..
So all the banging and yelling and screaming from the right over Bondi has effectively done nothing to Labor, but continues to help attract more of the Nationals bogan element to One Nation.
Good job Murdoch!
A very bad sample for the ALP in Victoria in this poll. The rest looks pretty normal.
Diogenes says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:22 pm
Fred
That Jewishness is inseparable from Zionism.
That is not what is said in the quote ( I don’t know if it is real). The quote says that a Jew gets special privileges in Israel. That is absolutely the case.
Are all jews Zionist’s definitely not. Considering what Likud has done in the name of Zionists this has got to be an anti-semiotic statement.
Are all Zionists Jews? I don’t know. Probable find some colonist that thinks it is ok to displace native populations.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:20 pm
Nadia
I’m thinking the Rest of Australia primaries are odd
That cohort has Labor with the highest primary, and the Greens the lowest Australia wide. Maybe Resolve needs to review their weightings.
========
They’re probably very small samples. Seems a bit odd for the Green vote to “fall off a cliff” outside of the eastern states. Resolve isn’t really known for big moves either way.
That’s a bit of a puzzle in Vic too – ALP down 4, LNP up 3. (ie: a 7% swing).
I don’t even believe Albo’s been down to Vic recently. He spent a lot of time in QLD in Dec and again 2 weeks ago. Obviously he’s been busy in Sydney.
I haven’t followed Victoria much of recent. Is that “Get Allan” campaign still in full swing?
I saw that she was pretty much being blamed for the fires, or something about CFA funding. That machete business hasn’t all started up down in Melb again has it?
Odd figures from Vic – these are the Federal Primary votes out of Vic too, not state vote intention.
Edit: and that 17% Hanson vote – very odd me thinks
Ha, ha, nadia. You didn’t get your Sub _._ for Labor from this poll. Still, you are continuing to try and push the 50/50 line.
Sorry, but the numbers are what they are and they are 52-48.
Also, I have been a Scrutineer for a long time and I have seen Liberal voters preferencing Labor above any other party, and One Nation voters preference Labor over the Liberals. So the assumption you make to justify your 50/50 is weak. There will never be a 100% preference flow to any party. No matter where they have come from previously.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:37 pm
C@t
The NSW figures, if true, would be the ones most impacted by the Bondi shootings. So steady as she goes in the Premier State.
I’m intrigued to see what Minns rates..
Yep. Coming from NSW, being integral to the post Bondi Massacre shenanigans from the media, the Coalition and the parts of the Jewish community who were fully committed to ‘Get Albo’, plus the litany of letters campaign, I think that the PM has come out of it as good as could have been expected.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:31 pm
NSW (Fed figures)
* ALP 31% (steady)
* LNP 26% (down 3)
* ON 20% (steady)
* GRN 12% (up 3)
These are the really important numbers out of all of them. NSW was ground zero.
The ALP are steady
Sussan Ley and her caterwauling opportunists are down 3
Not that I know for sure but to my eyes it looks like 3 went to Labor from the LNP, 3 went to The Greens from Labor (maybe as reward for coming to the party to pass the Environment laws) and ON may have reached peak ON in NSW, but were certainly not rewarded either for their showy political opportunism after the Bondi Massacre.
===========
The NSW figures are very important, given the state has been at the epicentre of “what has transpired this past 5 weeks”.
I’m thinking there may be a Minns factor. We’ll see in about 48 hours when the state based figures are released on Resolve. Minns (NSW ALP) was sitting on 37% in Dec. I’m tipping the ALP state primary may clock over the 40% mark, when that poll is released.
That Victorian sample appears to have been taken just after the bushfires and during the Surf Coast flood event. Victorians were obviously not happy and have vented it seems.
I’d have to say though that a rise towards One Nation in the aftermath of Bondi would be unsurprising. I daresay, despite the online chattering, a lot of negative opinion among voters from that incident wouldn’t be towards Israel, Palestine, Jews or Muslims, but rather foreigners coming here and being violent at our iconic locations. Combine that with already growing resentment towards immigrants and you can see where there’s potential for ON to grow among voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/18/disappointed-jewish-leaders-call-for-compromise-on-hate-speech-laws-after-labor-backdown-on-bill-ntwnfb
Perhaps he can rally a petition or get some celebrities and sporting identities to sign a letter to Sussan Ley?
BTW, realistic looking gel blasters are already illegal in Tasmania.
Time for The Greens to please their supporters and do a deal with the government over the Hate Speech laws that have been put in abeyance. They need to prove their worth in the Senate. Thankfully, Larissa Waters appears to realise this.
As noted in the previous thread, basically the collective left has been punished for not progressing action on racism, with the beneficiaries the Teals (who wanted to help) and ON (who you can’t beat on anti-brown people).
The three major parties have shamed themselves this past week, though with some consolation that the media have achieved nothing for their LNP buddies.
Nadia, I think you’ve jumped the gun a little with your postulation that the 2PP is more likely to be 50:50. More polling is needed before giving credence to your claim.
A record 42 per cent of voters say they would now cast their primary vote for a party other than Labor or the Coalition, despite the Greens dropping a further point since December to be at 10 per cent, the party’s lowest result in this poll for two years.
The shift suggests protest votes and disaffection are being parked outside the major parties rather than consolidating behind the opposition. Reed said that was a problem for both Albanese and Ley.
“One Nation have taken a big chunk of the Coalition’s base since the election, but since the Bondi massacre they’re also hoovering up votes from Labor too,” he said. “If this trend continues, we may have to stop referring to them as a minor party.”
If PhoN are ‘hoovering up’ Labor primaries, they will come back as preferences – on the same rationale that LNP ones lost will come back.
So the 74.5 preference from PhoN to LNP at the 2025 election would stay the same – all other things being equal, which they’re not.
Mostly Interested says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:50 pm
BTW, realistic looking gel blasters are already illegal in Tasmania.
And in WA, which provided the template for the federal laws.
I mean, does this look like a ‘toy’ to you?
Well, with four polls out, I think we can now safely say that Albo and the government have taken a reasonable hit post-Bondi and that Ley is probably safe for the immediate future despite her appalling performance as opposition leader. One Nation’s continued rise is a genuine concern, but so far seems to be something the Coalition should be worried about far more than than Labor – that could change in time, however.
Considering that the next election is over two years away and the government is still comfortably ahead, I can’t say I’m too worried… especially since I suspect the prospect of One Nation being the kingmakers in the next parliament will likely be to Labor’s advantage next election.
But there is a telling lesson in all this about how just suddenly the political narrative can shift and that one should never get too complacent, regardless of how big their majority is or how hopeless the competition seems at present.
So the 74.5 preference from PhoN to LNP at the 2025 election would stay the same – all other things being equal, which they’re not.
I’m not so sure and certain about that, sprocket_. That’s because I don’t think the Coalition parties will preference ON again like they did in ’25.
All downhill for this pathetic federal labor government.
An interest rate rise on top of ever increasign electricity prices and inflation caused by their out of control spending on useless shit with borrowed money will seal the deal as they continue to be more concerned about that and stomping on the heads of minorities then running the country. What is really shows is how low their talent pool is.
We saw in their last term how they were a do nothing government except of course pass laws to be more secretive and give themselves pay rises.
I thought morrisson and his merry band of liberals were awful, it is like albanese said here, hold my beer and showed us all how inept a person who has never held a real job can be.
Wat Tyler says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:46 pm
I’d have to say though that a rise towards One Nation in the aftermath of Bondi would be unsurprising. I daresay, despite the online chattering, a lot of negative opinion among voters from that incident wouldn’t be towards Israel, Palestine, Jews or Muslims, but rather foreigners coming here and being violent at our iconic locations. Combine that with already growing resentment towards immigrants and you can see where there’s potential for ON to grow among voters.
__________________________________________________
And that has been the game since Dutton became Opposition Leader. It has continued on with Ley.
“ever increasing electricity prices”
Huh?
My latest bill has the supply charge down by $30 a year and the yearly total down $120 from what it was a year ago.
“We saw in their last term how they were a do nothing government”
Must have been infuriating to see Dutton get flattened by Albo’s “do nothing, secretive government” then.
2 more years cooker… then 3 more again.
Mavis says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:52 pm
Nadia, I think you’ve jumped the gun a little with your postulation that the 2PP is more likely to be 50:50. More polling is needed before giving credence to your claim.
============
Maybe, but I’m pretty confident that ex LNP voters who are telling pollsters they’re now voting for Hanson, are very unlikely to suddenly place Labor ahead of their former party.
The equivalent would be Labor voters getting upset with Labor; deciding to park their vote with the Greens….and then preferencing the Libs ahead of Labor. It would be ridiculous.
Anyway, the headline is 52-48, so we stick with that.
Victoria makes sense if the state government is weighing on the polling. Jacinta Allan handled the initial fire response well before being caught out on CFA funding.
Asha:
I don’t think Ley is safe. The wagons are still circling, some of her colleagues are still backgrounding, and if anything, the hit the government has taken in the polls would give her critics even more courage that they could take further paint off Albanese.
“I’d have to say though that a rise towards One Nation in the aftermath of Bondi would be unsurprising. I daresay, despite the online chattering, a lot of negative opinion among voters from that incident wouldn’t be towards Israel, Palestine, Jews or Muslims, but rather foreigners coming here and being violent at our iconic locations. Combine that with already growing resentment towards immigrants and you can see where there’s potential for ON to grow among voters.”
This isn’t anything new.
The only difference now, is instead of 9/11 or Children Overboard helping John Howard, all the benefit is now going toward One Nation, not the LNP.
Dio:
I have a few mates who could be pretty reliably described as alt-right in their political leanings. Several have said that the main thing that puts them off supporting One Nation is how much of clown Pauline is, and that they wish there was a “proper” right-wing, anti-woke, anti-immigration party that they could support. Say what you want about the loathsome Nigel Farage, but the man is a well-spoken, professional politician who comes across as someone who seems to know what he is talking about and to have genuine plans to fix the UK’s problems, even if said plans are largely BS.
Though those guys rarely bother actually voting either (something I find utterly baffling given their strong opinions on the present state of Australia, I can’t say I’m too bothered about people with their views disenfranchising themselves), so I dunno how representative they are of the demographic that is currently moving over the One Nation in droves.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:32 pm
—————————————–
Sorry, PP but while you were away sheeple (JJ) has usurped your position as the inhouse clueless far righter. You will need to be even more clueless and nutty if you wish to regain your former position. I myself think you have it in you to do so though.
The gathering in Hyde Park this afternoon was vastly outnumbered by police. Clearly they are taking no chances with these things which is very reassuring.
As to the protesters, as expected, without being able to cause disruption with road closures by having to stay in the one place the whole thing was very underwhelming and seemed to be over within an hour and a half.
I’ve often wondered why they don’t hold their rallies in places like Lakemba where their supporters are. Now we know: they just wouldn’t attract any attention.
Peter Dutton now threatening to Sue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvukaT6rNSg
Confessions:
That’s actually a really good point. Now that things are more comptetive, the likes of Taylor and Hastie (or possibly even Tim Wilson as potential dark horse) are probably seeing the leadership as a more enticing prospect than the poisoned chalice it was pre-Bondi.
Entropy says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 7:06 pm
pied piper says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:32 pm
—————————————–
Sorry, PP but while you were away sheeple (JJ) has usurped your position as the inhouse clueless far righter. You will need to be even more clueless and nutty if you wish to regain your former position. I myself think you have it in you to do so though.
———-
I just noticed pied piper was back. His last appearance here – I think – was on the night of Bondi.
The big difference is, in the aftermath of Bondi, Ley took a side. Now, I don’t want to get into the whole debate or whether she took the correct side or not, my point is: she blamed anti-semitism and the government’s alleged weakness on it. She didn’t blame immigrants. She didn’t intimate that this is a fight that belongs overseas and we’ve imported here via immigration. That’s why One Nation, rather than the Coalition, would benefit from any Bondi-fuelled increase in anti-immigration sentiment this time.
nadiasays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 7:10 pm
————————————-
He did post yesterday too. I think I was only one that acknowledged that. JJ getting all the responses instead.
Entropysays:
Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 4:10 pm
pied pipersays:
Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 4:07 pm
The Greens are doing labor slowly.
—————————————–
Welcome back PP.
So you have became a Greens convert?
Horseshoe theory looking pretty good now.
The latest Sloan Zone:
‘Is Dutton about to sue the Liberal Party?’
https://youtu.be/VvukaT6rNSg?si=YsiNOOsVIKa_58cx
It will be interesting to see if this a new normal or a blip.
I am going with blip as I can’t see the pressure remaining on Albo and co. over the Bondi attack.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#ResolvePM ALP 30 L-NP 28 ON 18 Grn 10 IND 7 other 7
Their 2PP (respondent prefs?) 52-48 to ALP (-2)
My conversion 51.2 to ALP (-2.7 and term worst from any pollster)
“I’ve often wondered why they don’t hold their rallies in places like Lakemba where their supporters are. Now we know: they just wouldn’t attract any attention.”
——————————-
The protest rally did not consist of pro-Palestinian supporters.
————————————–
“David Dungay Jr’s nephew, Paul Silva, has condemned the expansion of police powers against protesters as an effort to criminalise scrutiny of police brutality.
Speaking before the protest against Aboriginal deaths in custody, Silva told reporters:
The extension of the process has … affected this movement. And that makes the question, is it because they don’t want to scrutinise, the high rate of deaths custody in 2025
across the Christmas period, or they don’t want to scrutinise police brutalisation …
People see it as defying laws. I don’t see it as defying laws. I see that as a First Nations person standing for our existence, for what’s right.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/jan/18/australia-news-live-weather-sydney-nsw-storms-sunday-politics-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-696c3a838f08ea50a5d42dd2#block-696c3a838f08ea50a5d42dd2
——————————————-
“Police have blocked the path of protesters marching against Aboriginal deaths in custody at Hyde Park in Sydney, sparking a standoff.
:::
Dozens of police, including a contingent on horseback, assembled at Hyde Park’s exits and blocked the path as Silva began walking, followed by the hundreds of attenders. The superintendent said “please turn, ask everyone to turn”. Silva asked the crowd to leave:
I don’t want anyone being brutalised and unfortunately these laws will allow that. Please, just please disperse … I do not want anyone ending up the next statistic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/jan/18/australia-news-live-weather-sydney-nsw-storms-sunday-politics-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-696c4d3e8f08ea50a5d42e15#block-696c4d3e8f08ea50a5d42e15