The second and third federal polls for the year have been published over the last few days, the more recent being a Roy Morgan result that has Labor down two on last month to 30%, the Coalition up four to 30.5%, One Nation down half to 15% (a distinctly different result from the other two recent polls) and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Whereas Morgan’s practice since the May election has been to publish large-sample monthly results compiled from its regular surveying, this result is limited to a 1676 sample over a one-week period from January 5 to 11, the former date marking the resumption of its surveying after a break that began in mid-December. Labor is credited with a 52-48 two-party lead using both respondent-allocated preferences and previous election preference flows, compared with respective leads of 55-45 and 55.5-44.5 last month.
The other comes from Fox & Hedgehog, a new outfit founded by former Peter Dutton staffer Michael Horner, and has Labor leading 53-47 from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 25%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. Also featured are further two-party preferred match-ups showing Labor leading One Nation 56-44 and the Coalition leading One Nation 63-37, and a “three-party preferred” result with Labor on 46%, the Coalition on 29% and One Nation on 25%. Together with Anthony Albanese (33% approval and 48% disapproval) and Sussan Ley (19% approval and 32% disapproval), personal ratings were included for six further politicians, with Pauline Hanson scoring 38% approval and 41% disapproval. Albanese leads Ley 39-31 on preferred prime minister.
As well as extensive breakdowns on voting intention, the poll further offers the striking findings that 51% consider the Australian political system “fundamentally broken”, with only 22% disagreeing, and 55% in favour of “a pause to all migration to Australia other than tourists”, with only 22% disagreeing. Twenty-eight per cent favoured the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with 32% opposed. The poll was conducted January 5 and 6 from a sample of 1608.
Nath:
I was a bit tuned out from politics during all but the final week or two of the 2025 campaign, and was stunned when I read recently that Dutton apparently began the campaign promising to increase income taxes. I mean… I just… What?
The bulk of the NSW coastal rain is over:
https://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
I reckon most of the forested coastal strip got enough to largely eliminate the risk of serious bushfire for the remainder of the summer.
Shogun says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:56 pm
Entropy;
LOL, one can only laugh at the stupidity of someone who actually believes this to be true.
This was Jolly Jumbuck trying to pull the wool over your eyes. I expect him to be quite sheepish after being caught out in a lie. What a dag! The shear audacity of this guy.
He uses all the subtlety of crutching
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:58 pm
By what standards would $575 per week for a two bedroom flat be considered affordable.
—————————
As “landlord of the year” what would you charge?
If the Liberals and Dutton want an election post-mortem, I will offer the one bit of advice condescendingly given towards the left of centre any time they lose: It’s the economy, stupid. Less identity politics and more economic policy.
You were an opposition during a cost of living crisis, where incumbent governments – no matter how fresh or large their previous election majorities – were being swept out. All you had to do was bullshit about how you were going to bring prices down and ease the pressure, and maybe make people nostalgic for the 2010s – when you were last in power and everything wasn’t on fire. It didn’t need to be that substantial, policy-wise, just a back-to-basics approach.
Instead, you just ran a negative campaign without any substantial criticisms, barely talked about the economy and spent way too much time whinging about the Voice Referendum. Even during the first term, Dutton seemed more excited to whine about the Voice, or stores not selling tacky Australia Day merchandise than anything to do with cost of living. Heck, the first time I recall Dutton actually being passionate about anything during his time as Opposition Leader was when he was outraged that new $5 notes weren’t going to have the King on them.
Maybe be of some interest to some
Visited one of the children who live in the Eastern Suburbs
On leaving they cleared their letter box where there was a flyer from McGowan as MLC
My son queried who this was
In looking, absolutely no mention of any political party only that he was the MLC
And the colouring was some obtuse colour, most definitely not colouring of any party including the Teals
I responded “Never heard of him” so my son did a google search as we were hopping into our car
A Liberal
So what is their polling telling them?
If anyone wants to refresh their memory of shearing shed lingo, no better than this…
https://youtu.be/9vhahHg0FNo?si=pi2pJdLATSWif0Fs
Sydney received 126 mm, nearly six weeks worth of rain, in the 24 hours to 9:00 AM today. Some sites around the Pittwater (Northern Beaches) and the Woy Woy (Central Coast) received over 200 mm.
Mar-a-Lago face Leavitt. The evil shines through.
Resolve poll is shown early here.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Resolve Poll (1st for the year)
{Comparison with their 21-Dec poll}
* ALP 30% (down 2)
* LNP 28% (steady)
* ON 18% (up 2)
* GRN 10% (down 2) bit surprised with this.
* Others/Indies 14% (up 2)
No 2PP provided as yet. Journos will drop their article on the SMH/Age in about 10 mins, alongside sample & poll period
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
NSW (Fed figures)
* ALP 31% (steady)
* LNP 26% (down 3)
* ON 20% (steady)
* GRN 12% (up 3)
VIC (Fed figures)
* ALP 26% (down 4) – Bit of a tumble
* LNP 33% (up 3)
* ON 17% (up 2) – I find this very hard to believe for Victoria
* GRN 13% (up 1)
The State breakdowns are again throwing up some interesting results. Again small sample size. Victoria has ALP 26%, LNP 33%, Green 13% and ONP 17%…
Preferred PM
* ALBO 33% (down 8)
* LEY 29% (up 4)
* Neither/Undec – The balance
Player One says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:29 pm
C@tmomma @ #2191 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 10:45 am
But then Labor is far closer to the Liberals than the Greens are.
The Greens siding with the Coalition to block the Hate Speech Bill puts the lie to that stupid assertion right away.
The Greens did not “side with the Coalition”, they were against the bill for different reasons.
It would probably help if you opened both eyes before posting.
Come in spinner! 😆
I carefully phrased that comment to see if you’d bite and like a fish on my hook, here you are! See Griff’s comment after yours to know what I was on about.
Hmm, maybe you shouldn’t be so quick to try and piss on me next time, Player One? I think you got your feet wet. 😆
nadiasays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 5:54 pm
Resolve Poll (1st for the year)
* GRN 10% (down 2) bit surprised with this.
_______________________
I’m not.
Hanson-Young’s travel claims on behalf of her lobbyist husband does not meet community expectations.
So with Resolve, we should have some state based figures for NSW in a couple of days (ie: Minns not Albo). I’m tipping Minns’ ALP primary to go up, but we’ll see.
Possibly in the next couple of hours we may have a Redbridge poll via the AFR.
I don’t believe we have a Newspoll tonight, as on past polling their first one is usually over the Oz Day weekend, or near-abouts.
Should have the sample and poll period for Resolve soonish, and if someone could do a quick 2PP, that would be ace.
Resolve is a bad sample for Victoria
PPM has
Ley 34
Albo 29
Calling BS on this number
Thanks Nadia
I little bit of bouncing around
Greens must have terrible numbers somewhere if they are up in NSW and Victoria, Queensland?
One Nation teens rather than 20’s seems more realistic
Labor folk with be happy not being sub 30
The poll of 1800 voters was conducted between January 12 and 16. It has a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
Asked who would win the next federal election, just 23 per cent of voters believed the Coalition would win, down 4 percentage points in a month, compared to 41 per cent for Labor. About 36 per cent were undecided.
Scott – if you’re floating around, your thoughts on the Pref PM figures.
I know it’s one poll (and it’s a Jan poll), but I think Ley is safe from the axe for the immediate future. Maybe a little bit later in the year she may be gonski, but I don’t think it will happen soon.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-albanese-plummets-after-muddled-response-to-bondi-attack-20260118-p5nuv8.html
A mere flesh wound?
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-albanese-plummets-after-muddled-response-to-bondi-attack-20260118-p5nuv8.html
“The Coalition, up 2 percentage points to 28 per cent, failed to capitalise directly on Labor’s slide, but a continued surge in support for One Nation (18 per cent) narrowed the two-party-preferred contest to 52-48 Labor’s way, from 55-45 in December.”
Not clear if that is respondent allocated preferences or last election preferences.
HBG
The greens primaries of 10 overall are based on Resolve’s
NSW 12
VIC 13
QLD 10
Rest of Australia 6
Maybe that’s where the PhoN’s are surging?
H.B.G. – The greens vote has plummeted in the “Rest of Oz”, falling from 13% in Dec, to just 6% tonight.
If you access the above poll link myself & Leroy provided, scroll down to the section titled..
“Which party would you put number ‘1’ on the ballot paper?”
You’ll see under this, several tabs for the respective states.
Click on those tabs and you’ll get the state data for the parties.
You can also get age/sex data too.
Thanks Leroy for 2PP.
Gosh, the headline “ALP primary plummets”.
It hasn’t plummeted, it’s fallen 2 points.
His net/sat has taken a big smash, but yes it’s a mid Jan poll and people are partially at work, partially still on hols.
”
Team Katichsays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 3:06 pm
Dio, that is a very strongly worded letter. It’s a warning. The way he put it in that first radio interview was that he was asked for and gave an opinion. This goes way beyond that. He was obviously well briefed by someone with a pre existing opinion and sought no counter view.
No mention of the Palestinian community and what they must be going through and how cancelling a Palestinian writer may affect them. I don’t know how you can make repeated calls to decency and such without mentioning that – other than a passing, almost blaze reference to a conflict between Palestine and Israel.
If he had any dreams of a bigger political career – I think he can shelve it.
”
Peter Malinauskas response to the Adelaide writer’s festival board is as if the Bondi beach terrorist killers are Palestine muslims. But the Bondi killers are not muslims of Palestine origin. They are muslims of Indian origin. That is the reason banning a Palestine muslim woman writer is absurd.
Peter Malinauskas is implying that muslims in general and Palestine muslims in particular are suspects in Australia.
Diogenes says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 5:09 pm
yabba
It has shown over the internet for months. It’s completely illogical but perhaps she is stupid.
As the state of Israel, as envisaged by Likud, requires the displacement of the Palestinians, what is stupid about the statement? If very neatly captures the situation. It also reflects the view of an increasing number of Jews.
nadiasays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 5:54 pm
* GRN 10% (down 2) bit surprised with this
____________________
I’m not. If there are any Greens partisans who are unhappy, be so with the media that had fun headlines like:
“ABC: Labor to cut racial vilification offence from hate speech bill after Greens signal opposition”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-17/greens-wont-support-labor-hate-speech-reforms/106240440
Which to meet reads like the Greens are fine with racial discrimination. Not likely popular with some of their base…
Thanks Nadia and Sprocket
Rest of Australia 6 for the Greens is kind of crazy. Would be a very small sample
Ley would be safe for the time being with the Resolve metrics.
Nadia
I’m thinking the Rest of Australia primaries are odd
That cohort has Labor with the highest primary, and the Greens the lowest Australia wide. Maybe Resolve needs to review their weightings.
At the 2025 election, Greens got
Northern Territory
10.22 %
Tasmania
11.12 %
South Australia
13.42 %
Western Australia
11.97 %
ACT
15.06 %
To drop down to a combined 6 over the silly season raises an eyebrow
Ven
It’s the first time he’s really looked out of his depth. Ramping, algae, slow builds, hydrogen being killed to prop up Whyalla etc etc are partly not his fault.
But Writers Week dying is. The Chair had that letter and had to cast the fateful vote.
And the rest was dominoes.
There is some talk of a makeshift Writers Week. I wonder if Randa will get an invite.
New thread.
The only speech that should be banned is inciting violence and defaming people. And for public figure plaintiffs the threshold for bringing a defamation lawsuit should be considerably higher than it is presently.
As a society we have a striking censorious streak that we ought to expunge. We are too timid, we lack robustness, and we crumble at the first hint of emotional discomfort. Those are not good qualities for a society to have. We should learn that the solution to bad speech is either to respond with better speech, or to provide no response at all – to live and let live, to let it go through to the keeper. We need more eloquence and less invective, more mindfulness and fewer tantrums. We need more self-reliance in coping with speech we don’t like. We need less shutting down of speech we don’t like.
The proposed responses to the Bondi Beach shooting are at the emotionally dysregulated end of the spectrum. The dominant theme is assigning blame and scoring political points instead of recognising that no society can prevent all acts of violence. Mass shootings in Australia remain extremely uncommon. You wouldn’t know that from the tenor of the Israel lobby’s invective. The proposed interventions consist of wrapping Jewish Australians in cotton wool to remove all risk – or to create the appearance of doing that, at any rate. The NSW Government has even gone so far as to authorise Jewish militia groups to carry guns in public. This is profoundly stupid. The risk of an Australian Jew being shot for their Jewishness remains extremely low. Integration, not separateness, is the key to enhancing community safety.
Fred
That Jewishness is inseparable from Zionism.
”
Shogunsays:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:59 pm
Bushfire Bill:
Wouldn’t it be far easier if God spoke in less mysterious ways than murdering 173 people, burning down 2,000 houses, and causing catastrophic Queensland floods?
He has form. Something to do with an ark, and two of every animal. Except the dinosaurs.
”
Dinosaurs did not exist at that time.
NSW (Fed figures)
* ALP 31% (steady)
* LNP 26% (down 3)
* ON 20% (steady)
* GRN 12% (up 3)
These are the really important numbers out of all of them. NSW was ground zero.
The ALP are steady
Sussan Ley and her caterwauling opportunists are down 3
Ven:
True.
Though they did at least exist significantly earlier than that, which is more than can be said for God, Noah, or any of the other protagonists of that overlong and poorly structured fantasy novel.
C@tmomma @ #2316 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 6:02 pm
You got caught out making a silly comment. Deal with it like an adult.
SL says:
Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 6:32 am
“The release of the Liberal Party’s review into its disastrous 2025 election campaign has been delayed because former opposition leader Peter Dutton claims elements of the report are defamatory to him and his staff.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-18/peter-dutton-election-loss-liberal-party-report-delayed/106240876
————————————————————
Did he move that it not be heard?