The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election. The Greens are on 12%, leaving 13% for “any other candidate”.
A two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 uses preferences flows from last year’s election, which means the 74.5-25.5 split of One Nation preferences in favour of the Coalition is doing exceptionally heavy lifting. The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter, splits Greens preferences 88-12 by assuming the same split as between Labor and the Coalition, and the rest 50-50.
Anthony Albanese’s performance is rated positively by 29%, neutrally by 30% and negatively by 41%, while the respective numbers for Sussan Ley are 17%, 55% and 28%. Albanese leads 42-29 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1027 – based on the amount of weighting involved, the pollster estimates an effective sample size of 586 and a margin-of-error of 4%. Demographic breakdowns will be provided in a full report to be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
We are witnessing an unreal world, aren’t we?
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Reuters
@Reuters
‘It definitely feels like we’ve entered a new era for international relations, resource nationalism and American foreign policy — just in a matter of days.’
@ronbousso1
on today’s Reuters Econ World podcast https://reut.rs/453MmU2
2:00 PM · Jan 10, 2026
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She’s calling for the end of the state of Israel, a nation that is not yet 80 years established, not death to all Jews. I am personally a two-stater, brought up on Exodus, Judgement At Nuremburg and Cast A Giant Shadow plus a liberal Catholic education that taught me (and millions of others) that Israel could do no wrong. Nevertheless I have to concede that urging or wishing for the abolution of Israel is a valid political point to hold.
And, as TPOF has often told us, the state and government of Israel are not be be equated with “Jews”. There are political, cultural, even religious subdivisions aplenty to be noted under the umbrella of “Jewishness”.
Unfortunately the new definition of anti-Semitism, put out recently by the Israeli Ministry for the Disapora and anti-Semitism, does include being pro-Palestine and pro-Palestinian as anti-Semitic positions. Criticising the IDF murder tactics in Gaza also qualifies lately. It seems the association of “Jews” and “Israel” is fluid and flexible, flip-flopping daily according to need, who’s being accused of what, and by whom.
Player One says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:04 pm
The reductions in emissions are coming whether you like it or not. The price stability is here, whether you like it or not. Labor is succeeding, whether you like it or not. Bowen is serious, even if his detractors are not. There is very widespread community support – that is, electoral support – for the course Labor has defined, no matter that the Labor-phobic wish it were not so.
Really, there are two kinds of people in the world at the moment. There are the Reactionaries, their ensigns, dupes and collaborators. And there are those whom the Reactionaries set out to exploit, deceive, manipulate and cannibalise.
You are in the first group.
Ven says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:19 pm
We are witnessing an unreal world, aren’t we?
There is a lot of turmoil. Most of it is being animated in the Trump House. Trump is very seriously ill. He has dementia. He has life-threatening vascular disease. He is visibly deteriorating as we watch. Without any doubt, he has next to no comprehension of reality, which really means he is at the mercy of the half-wits, chancers and fascists he has appointed to serve him.
This is autocracy in the hands of the cognitively incompetent.
”
gollsays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 6:51 am
Trump and the 42/43% support together with the shenanigans such as Venezuela, the ICE police, the desire for a peace prize, the tariffs, the lack of respect for the democratic process, the racism…… ….. … together with the system that has allowed Trump to gain the Presidency twice has destroyed the faith and belief Australia relied upon since WWII.
We all have studied and thought about history.
Trump has placed history in our living rooms, our life and our political outlooks.
Trump is churning out making history with everyday yet the 42/43% remains!
Trump, Bondi, Ukraine,Panama, Venezuela, Greenland, climate change and many more are all “free to air” and “making history”.
And the Ununited States elected Trump twice!
Will he “hand in the keys” and get his bond back” at the “end of his lease”?
”
Is it possible that US Political system is so fragile that with the emergence of one bad faith political actor on US political scene has not only unraveled US political and economic landscape but also is also on the verge of destroying NATO and all the international systems US established and nurtured along with its allies, Putin and Xi couldn’t have asked more and wouldn’t have dreamt in their wildest dreams?
At the same time as this is happening the leadership of most important nations of EU like UK, France and Germany are deeply unpopular.
I will not be surprised if US annexes Greenland without any resistance from EU and UK.
And yet most important people in political corridors, media, PB are not willing to criticise the path taken by US and European countries.
”
Hacksays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:30 pm
Ven says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:19 pm
We are witnessing an unreal world, aren’t we?
There is a lot of turmoil. Most of it is being animated in the Trump House. Trump is very seriously ill. He has dementia. He has life-threatening vascular disease. He is visibly deteriorating as we watch. Without any doubt, he has next to no comprehension of reality, which really means he is at the mercy of the half-wits, chancers and fascists he has appointed to serve him.
This is autocracy in the hands of the cognitively incompetent.
”
Hack
I refer you to my post @2:34 pm.
Currently, The only sollace I have is that we have a competent ALP government running the country albeit, which is timid, when it comes to real big ticket items like AUKUS, anti-semitic RC, which will impact Australia in the long run.
Ven says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:34 pm
If free and fair elections are held this year then Trump is finished. The Republicans will be smashed. One-third of all voters did not vote in 2024. Very many of those voters, committed Democrats, a vast majority of Independents and not-just-a-few Republicans will vote for a Democratic Congress.
Of course, Trump will try everything to forestall this. But he will fail. His program consists of taking things away from voters, not of improving their lives. They will respond to the deprivations of all kinds that he has instituted. Hate will fail in the US. Lies will fail.
The Susssan Ley lament:
Pauline, Pauline, Pauline, Pauline
I’m beggin’ of you, please don’t take my man
Pauline, Pauline, Pauline, Pauline
Please don’t take my voters just because you can
BB 2:19pm
Good post and I see we have a lot in common regards moral upbringing.
At the risk of splitting hairs I think there is a significant difference between calling for the abolition of Israeli in its current form and calling for the abolition of Israel in general.
I support a two state solution for similar reasons to yours. Israeli has successfully blocked a two state solution for decades and its settlement policy since the end of the Cold War is designed to make a Palestinian state permanently unviable.
If then we are stuck with an enlarged Israel and no Palestine Israeli needs to change. Otherwise Arabs, Maronite Christians and other Muslims will remain a permanent underclass in Israel. Israel cannot remain as it is, an exclusionary Jewish state, if it refuses to permit a Palestinian state for the former residents of what has become Israel. In the 19th century only 10% of modern day Israel was Jewish.
”
Socratessays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 9:08 am
Morning all. First an item on SA news. Malinauskus has tried to distance himself somewhat from the author ban decision that has wrecked the Adelaide writers week. Yet he does not deny recommending the ban. Pete needs to admit he got this one wrong before its too late.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/10/sa-premier-denies-pressuring-adelaide-festival-to-drop-randa-abdel-fattah-ntwnfb
”
Socrates
As A_E stated and repeatedly proved that Arab-Israeli conflict is where progressive politics goes to die.
Likud party of Australia has completely gagged debate on anything to do with Israel government and Pro-palestinian activism
Socratessays:
In the 19th century only 10% of modern day Israel was Jewish.
________________
Unfortunately we do not currently have access to a Time Machine to alleviate past injustices.
All we have is today’s situation and the goodwill of people to make that situation better.
Worth repeating
Nick Anderson
When is the SA election, noting certain contributions on here?
The SA Premier has said he has not intervened in decisions made by an NGO because he is precluded from doing so by law
But he was asked a question about the decision and gave an answer to that question saying he supported the decision of the NGO
I do not agree the lady should have been banned – but that is where we have got to
I could include due to the preciousness of some in the Jewish community- but I won’t
No one is forcing you to agree her position
Just as no one is forcing you to take exception to the Israel pm or Trump or Putin et al
And this is why the RC is a waste of time and money
People will still think – and they will still say what they think
And they will vote without declaring who they voted for
Madness abounds
And misrepresenting what people say to try to gain political advantage is just another step on the slippery slope we are on
The uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know
Then defending by saying you can not think or say that
Perhaps we should have a RC into why everyone does not follow Collingwood
Arab-Israeli conflict is where goodwill of people goes to die.
There is no place for goodwill in Arab-Israeli especially Israel-Palestine conflict
The is place for a person to be a good human being in Israel-Palestine conflict
There is no place for love and normal relationships in Israel-palestine conflict
Along with land wars in Asia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LUUk6wVNrY
And Ven, did you read the article you appended (from The Guardian)?
You most obviously come with an agenda hence your misrepresentation
”
Davidsays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:01 pm
And Ven, did you read the article you appended (from The Guardian)?
You most obviously come with an agenda hence your misrepresentation
”
David
I did not link the article. Socrates did it.
We all know SA Premier advised Adelaide writer’s festival not to invite that Pro-palestinian activist.
Now he denies that because metaphorically it is hot in the kitchen. Over 100 writers backed out of the Adelaide writer’s festival. That is certainly not because of my misrepresentation. BTW, This is the first time I am commenting on Adelaide writer’s festival issue.
And please note that I don’t care Adelaide writer’s festival happens or not. But SA Premier has made it an issue and in the end it appears he made a fool of himself. Hence my comment.
We haven’t had a BW Longwood fire report for sometime. Hope his relatives are all ok. Conditions are certainly better now then they had been. Currently the three fires that were pretty much were grass/paddock fires only. Skipton, Natimuk and Mt Mercer seemed to be contained and doing no more damage. The Longwood and Walwa fires are not contained but are not spreading like they did previously but still doing some damage. A couple fires in the Otways burning in tall forest which will be very hard to put out too. The same is true for the one in the Alpine NP which burnt down the Wonnangatta Valley where Carol Clay was murdered in 2020.
I guess we just stay in AUKUS on a wing and prayer hoping Trump is an anomaly and thinking we have no better backstop security options. I would have thought we’d be better engaging more strongly with our neighbours but what would I know.
Hack @ #1103 Sunday, January 11th, 2026 – 2:23 pm
We are going to miss our emissions targets, unambitious as they are. I don’t like that, and neither should you.
Really, there are two kinds of people here on PB at the moment. Those who believe anything that Labor says today, even when that flatly contradicts what they said yesterday. And there are those who look at the details and make up their own minds, rather than just trust them so blindly.
You are in the first group.
Meloni joins Macron in urging European talks with Russia
Italian prime minister suggests appointing a special envoy for discussions with Moscow.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-giorgia-meloni-calls-for-europe-to-talk-to-russia/
“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday called on Europe to appoint a special envoy to talk to Russia, as efforts continue to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
Meloni said that she agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron, who last month called for new dialogue with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron, Moscow said in response.
“I believe the time has come for Europe to also speak with Russia,” Meloni told a press conference in Rome on Friday. “If Europe speaks to only one of the two sides on the field, I fear that the contribution it can make will be limited.”
“
Gee, the more I hear about Ms Abdel-Fattah, the less I like the sound of her. Eg, reportedly posting a photo of a paraglider after October 7 and more recently calling for the end of Israel.
I’m a big believer in freedom of speech, and am always uncomfortable about anybody’s voice being silenced. But I agree that people should not be permitted to say things that might incite others to acts of violence, and this lady sounds like she has been treading pretty close to the line in that regard.
I hope that every one of those writers who have pulled out of the event fully understand what Abdel-Fattah is on about.
meher babasays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:30 pm
Gee, the more I hear about Ms Abdel-Fattah, the less I like the sound of her. Eg, reportedly posting a photo of a paraglider after October 7 and more recently calling for the end of Israel.
———————————————–
Was the paraglider going from the river to the sea?
Otherwise I fail to understand the significance.
Damn, you can see the damage of the Longwood fire from space.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-36.90186,144.91994,8z
Player One says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:28 pm
You are phobic. Everything you post is coloured by your phobia….and is therefore discounted to nil value. Nothing you say carries any weight at all. Nothing. Lies, sleights of speech, gaslighting, phobia, trolling….these devalue themselves. You are just not to believed about anything.
Hack: “Labor is bigger than any one of us. It has endured for more than 130 years. It built the country. ”
——————————————————————————-
Actually, the Labor Party was pretty equivocal about Federation.
I would support the suggestion that the Curtin-Chifley and Hawke-Keating governments both did a lot for making Australia (with all its flaws) the generally terrific place that it is today.
Entropy: “Was the paraglider going from the river to the sea?’
—————————————————————————-
The implication was that it was going from Gaza to Israel, as quite a few paragliders carrying Hamas operatives did on October 7 2023. You surely understand that.
Really?
meher baba says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:39 pm
Entropy: “Was the paraglider going from the river to the sea?’
—————————————————————————-
The implication was that it was going from Gaza to Israel, as quite a few paragliders carrying Hamas operatives did on October 7 2023. You surely understand that.
____________
Implausible deniability perhaps 🙂
EDIT: As WB has waded in I shall wade right on out!
meher babasays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:39 pm
Entropy: “Was the paraglider going from the river to the sea?’
—————————————————————————-
The implication was that it was going from Gaza to Israel, as quite a few paragliders carrying Hamas operatives did on October 7 2023. You surely understand that.
————————————————
Fair enough, I didn’t remember that.
Griffsays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:41 pm
meher baba says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:39 pm
Entropy: “Was the paraglider going from the river to the sea?’
—————————————————————————-
The implication was that it was going from Gaza to Israel, as quite a few paragliders carrying Hamas operatives did on October 7 2023. You surely understand that.
____________
Implausible deniability perhaps
EDIT: As WB has waded in I shall wade right on out!
———————————————–
I was carrying out bush surveys most springs and didn’t here that news. Can you point to me ever posting in October? Though I hadn’t posted on here anyway at that time.
mj @ #1119 Sunday, January 11th, 2026 – 3:23 pm
The problem is that Trump is not an anomaly. Okay, one could be charitable and say that the first time Trump was elected it was out of ignorance of what that would mean – but the second time he was elected despite America knowing full well what the consequences would be. He told them what would happen. Trump has very ably demonstrated that it is the American political system that is desperately flawed, rather than just a few players. And it seems highly likely that it is flawed beyond repair. Trump is a symptom of that flaw, and not the cause. No country in their right minds should ever trust America quite so blindly again as Australia apparently still does. Even if the Americans do decide they have gone too far and elect a slightly less megalomaniacal president next time, Trump has shown just how easy it is for a bad actor to subvert the system. Want to see what could happen to Australia as a result? Watch what happens to Venezuela. Or Greenland. Or anything that Trump decides he wants.
I was also unaware of the paraglider reference but feel even more certain now that the festival got it right.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:35 pm
Damn, you can see the damage of the Longwood fire from space.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-36.90186,144.91994,8z
————————————————
The smoke plume from the Otways fires you can see travelling up past Beaufort, Avoca, St Arnauds, Charlton and all the way up to near Swan Hill.
Labor knows exactly who and what the US is now and thus the catastrophic potential of AUKUS.
Labor chooses to aggressively pursue the partnership in full knowledge.
I sleep easy knowing I didn’t vote for that.
‘Entropy says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:22 pm
We haven’t had a BW Longwood fire report for sometime. Hope his relatives are all ok. …’
===================
Thanks. All well. Rellies have some fencing to replace, some fodder to buy in, and some stock to shift.
I think something like 300,000ha burnt, dozens of houses burnt but with no injuries and no deaths. IMO, people learned some home truths from the Marysville fire. Some remarkably stubborn fools paid the ultimate price in that fire. The official warnings now are much more direct and to the point. The advice tiers are practical, IMO – although the take shelter warnings for our area have passed their use-by date by about 24 hours. (It is easy to be wise after the event.)
The rellies put out two fires today… basically ignited by a spark from something that was still smouldering.
The big action on the Longwood fire overnight and today has been along the Hume Fwy. With the change of wind they are working to stop it jumping that freeway. In one part it got across the southbound lanes into the centre strip. There are well over a hundred units dedicated to this outcome and it looks very much as if they are achieving their objective.
The Australian Labor Party’s attitude towards Federation (1901) was complex: while some Labor figures opposed it due to fears of entrenching conservative power, particularly regarding the Senate, others, like future PM Chris Watson, supported it, seeing potential benefits in national unity, and Labor eventually became a key force in early federal politics, forming the world’s first national Labor government by 1904. Early colonial Labor parties had divided views, but the emerging federal party embraced the structure, though criticisms of the Constitution’s power distribution persisted.
The powers of the Senate have proven to be a thorn Labor’s side. Nonetheless, Labor has made modern Australia what it is today, despite every effort by the Reactionaries to obstruct their efforts.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:55 pm
Labor knows exactly who and what the US is now …’
======================
If so, they would get good money from the world’s governments and corporations selling such information.
A comment, probably apocryphal IMO, from one of the execs in Big Oil was: ‘Who would invest billions into something that might change completely as the result of a tweet?’
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:56 pm
‘Entropy says:
========================================
Thanks for the update. Good to hear this too.
“There are well over a hundred units dedicated to this outcome and it looks very much as if they are achieving their objective”
It does seem the RC into bushfires following Black Saturday has made a material difference.
John Brumby gave Justice Bernard Teague the widest ToR possible, which no doubt was politically courageous. A legacy he can be proud of.
Entropysays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:47 pm
Griffsays:
——————————————-
So your argument has gone from we shouldn’t import division from conflicts on the other side of the world. To you are in big trouble if you don’t recall every aspect of an event from two and a bit years ago that occurred in a conflict on the other side of the world.
If a writer posting a picture of a paraglider is incitement to violence, what do you call a government official posting a video of a mother being shot point blank in the face and saying that it’s lawful. This is what the vice president did, basically licensing every ICE officer in the country to execute US citizens without trial.
The video is so incriminating (of the officer, not the victim) that it seems unlikely that Vance actually believes it makes the woman look like the “domestic terrorist” that the US government has accused her of being. More likely it’s an intentional effort to make people question their own perceptions of reality (“gas light”), and to intimidate and demoralize any citizen with a working brain with the knowledge that the truth doesn’t matter.
The arguments made by supporters of the administration who either believe or pretend to believe that the video makes the shooting seem justified are surreal – simply because even if you are actually endangered by a car heading toward you (putting aside whether or not you’re deliberately jumping in front of it)… shooting the driver doesn’t stop the car! It does nothing except guarantee that the car heading toward you will continue heading toward you – which is why law enforcement is trained never to do this.
WB – Are you including those two recent polls in BT – ie: Fox & Demos
Also, will you plug this Redbridge/Accent poll into BT, dated 14-Dec?
Link: https://www.accent-research.com/projects/afr%2C-redbridge-group-and-accent-research-federal-poll
This was the poll which dropped on the night of Bondi, but I notice it hasn’t made the cut on bludgertrack.
Thks
Adelaide festival did not dump Jewish columnist from 2024 program despite request from Randa Abdel-Fattah and others
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2026/jan/11/adelaide-festival-did-not-not-dump-jewish-columnist-from-2024-program-despite-request-from-randa-abdel-fattah-and-others
“I note the Adelaide Festival also made its own decision to remove a Jewish writer from the Adelaide Writers’ Week program in 2024 in very similar circumstances,” Malinauskas told the Guardian through a spokesperson on Saturday.
“I support that decision, and the consistent application of this principle.”
In my brief explanation of the NEM Review earlier I necessarily left out a lot details, including:
– The main objective of the Review was to recommend market settings to promote investment in firmed, renewable generation and storage capacity in the NEM, following the conclusion of Capacity Investment Scheme tenders in 2027.
– Its full title is the ‘NEM Wholesale Market Settings Review’. While the wholesale (spot) market is short-term (every five minutes), the Review has recommendations aimed at improving the function of the NEM in the short, medium and long-term.
– The Review Panel’s Implementation Roadmap outlines a legislative package including reforms to the short and medium-term markets and the establishment of the Electricity Service Entry Mechanism (ESEM), with passage targeted by the end of the year.
– The Panel proposes that the ESEM is piloted this year before formally commencing at the start of 2027.
– The quantity of each electricity service (bulk energy, shaping and firming) procured by the ESEM Administrator will be guided by the National Electricity Objective (NEO). Thus, it will procure enough of each service to maintain reliability and security, at the lowest possible cost, while satisfying jurisdictional (electricity-specific) emission targets.
I recently watched the movie Green Book, and discovered that Dr Donald Shirley’s driver in real life, Tony Lip, was the actor who portrayed Carmine Lupertazzi in the Soprano’s. That spun me out a little bit.
bc:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 2:04 pm
Mavis says Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 1:21 pm
Take the test:
https://blossomup.co/lp/political/?utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=23383047050&gad_source=5&gad_campaignid=23383047050&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIiK3zprWCkgMVk-2gAh0H7AnIEAEYASAAEgLwuvD_BwE
[‘I did the test and then discovered that I had to pay to get the result. So now I guess I will never know my political alignment.’]
Sorry, I didn’t know one had to pay for it. I didn’t take it as I know exactly where I stand.
Age editorial
Wilcox cartoon was divisive – and we apologise for the hurt it has caused
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/wilcox-cartoon-was-divisive-and-we-apologise-for-the-hurt-it-has-caused-20260111-p5nt6b.html
“Wilcox’s intention was to scrutinise the almost immediate politicisation following the horrific attack at Bondi. She by no means intended to cause hurt to the Jewish community. Her depiction of Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, is premised on his condemnation of Anthony Albanese in the hours after the attack, declaring the prime minister’s recognition of Palestine “pours fuel on the antisemitic fire”.
Many of our readers found the cartoon thought-provoking. It is undeniable, however, that many others in the community, particularly Jews, were deeply hurt and offended by it. We have heard their distress and for this pain, we sincerely apologise.”
The ‘anti-semitic’ tag is like kryptonite to the politician.
Pegasussays:
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 4:26 pm
——————————————–
“Wilcox cartoon was divisive – and we apologise for the hurt it has caused”
Do you support that response?