The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election. The Greens are on 12%, leaving 13% for “any other candidate”.
A two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 uses preferences flows from last year’s election, which means the 74.5-25.5 split of One Nation preferences in favour of the Coalition is doing exceptionally heavy lifting. The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter, splits Greens preferences 88-12 by assuming the same split as between Labor and the Coalition, and the rest 50-50.
Anthony Albanese’s performance is rated positively by 29%, neutrally by 30% and negatively by 41%, while the respective numbers for Sussan Ley are 17%, 55% and 28%. Albanese leads 42-29 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1027 – based on the amount of weighting involved, the pollster estimates an effective sample size of 586 and a margin-of-error of 4%. Demographic breakdowns will be provided in a full report to be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
Now, do I get to say I told you so?
This is why Labor should have been more proactive on reform in it’s first term. Being reactive is better than nothing but in the meantime the burn the place down cohort looks to be expanding.
Doubt Labor primary vote is under 30% ,
Demos AU, the new freshwater like opinion polling
I feel like Pied Piper posting this, but it is pretty funny.
Bondi hero Ahmed Al Ahmed has arrived in New York City after travelling to the United States to undergo further medical treatment, and he’s declared his love for Donald Trump.
“When asked about whether he’d like to meet Donald Trump, he replied: “I wish. He’s a hero of the world, of course. I love him. He’s a strong man.”
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/hero-of-the-world-ahmed-al-ahmed-lands-in-new-york-says-he-loves-donald-trump/news-story/d1b7842ec205f792fae583995ef96100
There we go, a not surprising Labor sub 30
The combined major party primary headed for sub 50? Wowsers.
Ridiculous numbers for One Nation, the Barnaby factor? Could well speed up other defections
It’ll be interesting to see if other polls show similar
NYT..
President Trump declared on Wednesday evening that his power as commander in chief is constrained only by his “own morality,” brushing aside international law and other checks on his ability to use military might to strike, invade or coerce nations around the world.
Asked in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times if there were any limits on his global powers, Mr. Trump said: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”
“I don’t need international law,” he added. “I’m not looking to hurt people.”
THATS PERFECT.. coming from a rapist supported by the christian right
except for the odd freshwater poll
Since the 2025 federal election , opinion polling companies have been consistent with each other on the federal lib/nats combined primary vote well below 30%
Headline of the day: On the lamb …
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/08/runaway-sheep-storm-german-supermarket
The German embassy in London are in pretty good form:
“50 runaway sheep ram-paged through a German supermarket in rural Baa-varia, causing shear mania on Monday morning. After breaking away from their 500-strong herd, the brazen sheep spent 20mins milling around in the Penny supermarket before ewe-turning and seeing themselves out.”
I, too will see myself out.
Far too much weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth on here last night about the RC. I don’t see it as being much of a setback for the Albanese Government.
I suspect Albo will now face more flak from some of the inner city members of his own faction than he will from the Opposition and the media. And I think that won’t be a major problem. As I remember a Labor insider in the Hawke era observing on one occasion “sometimes the only way for Labor governments to get anything done is for the left faction to be sent home in tears.”
The RC will attract plenty of attention from the media, but I very much doubt that it’s going to highlight any major “failings” on the part of the Albanese Government that contributed to the Bondi shootings. And I doubt that Bell will make any sort of a ruling that blames what happened at Bondi on the recognition of Palestine and the court decision to let Palestinians march across the Bridge. I’m not even sure that the most right wing judge would ever produce such a finding, because it would make them look silly.
So everyone take a chill pill and try to keep cool (or for those who, like me, live in Tassie, where it’s currently raining, try to keep dry).
It becomes difficult to feel outraged about each and every one of the new terrible things that the Trump adminstration does just about every day.
But, by the standards of decent public administration in Western countries, yesterday’s performance by Trump, Vance, Noem and others set a new all-time low in how to deal with an incident like yesterday’s shooting in Minneapolis.
Public administration 101 is that political and bureaucratic leaders say nothing about an incident like this until there has been a full inquiry. It’s simply outrageous for politicians to describe the dead woman as a “terrorist” and say things like “I stand by the ICE agent.”
How can any of the Republican scumbags in the House and Senate continue to support this mob? Let’s face it, when even someone like MTG thinks they’re beyond the pale, anyone who has the slightest bit of self-respect should have bailed out by now.
Meanwhile, it appears the regime in Iran is in serious trouble, with mass protests erupting.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clyzjn0w9l2t
The world feels like as big a tinderbox as Victoria, and other spots, stay safe folks
Thinking of those who experienced the flooding in Queensland as well, especially with the potential for a cyclone to form off Cairns
meherbaba
A lot of weeping, wailing, gnashing my teeth. Never ever comment on how minorities are treated in India.
Posted late night on previous thread
Vensays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 12:08 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 11:13 pm
Always good to end the night on a positive note:
”
It is not a good night I can’t see a positive aspect to today’s developments.
Albanese is damaged, ALP government is damaged, all brown and black people are implicitly accused of anti-semitism.
Albanese government established caste based system, where one small percentage of people are at the top social hierarchy.
It is like Albanese government has pulled off a defeat from the jaws of stupendous victory.
”
And it appears certain promenant people on PB changed their minds on anti-semitism RC as soon as it was apparent that Albanese would change his mind.
And what did meherbaba said. Being Jewish is itself is an identity and unique.
Morning all. Mostly Interested unfortunately yes, you can say I told you so.
I will have to reserve my own opportunity to say it for when AUKUS collapses.
Labor should take the opportunity to be seen to both tighten gun laws and anti-hate speech laws, as long as the latter focus on all forms of racial and religious discrimination and not just anti-Semitism. Most of Jillian Segal’s report is still wrong in principle IMO.
And criticising a government should not be equated with criticizing a religion. Kier Starmer has already proven the folly of that approach.
”
Hard Being Greensays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 8:02 am
The world feels like as big a tinderbox as Victoria, and other spots, stay safe folks
Thinking of those who experienced the flooding in Queensland as well, especially with the potential for a cyclone to form off Cairns
”
Are you being liberated once your thought process is changed to ‘easy being Liberal’
I never seen Diogenes posting in one day, which was yesterday. It was as if he was glued to TV and PB.
The opponents of Albanese government were dancing in their private settings
If you’re curious about the weird hand gesture that Smith has been making this series, it seems it helps him find his hands or maybe stops him losing his hands, which happens on occasions. In his own words:
“It’s how I know my hand is on the bat, particularly when I play a straight drive or an on drive, it’s how I want my hand to be on the bat with my right hand and how I use it. I do it a bit, it’s just a thing that I do, like all the other random things. It’s just another one of those, you just seem to pick up on it a bit more maybe.”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/smith-explains-random-new-gesture-as-theory-debunked/ar-AA1TQeI4
meher babasays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 7:29 am
Far too much weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth on here last night about the RC. I don’t see it as being much of a setback for the Albanese Government.
_______________________
There is a pattern here.
Expenses scandal he argued and argued until he was forced to retreat.
RC he argued and argued until he was forced to retreat.
He thinks he is invincible but got taken down by people power both times.
Not quite as invincible as what he thinks he is. A drovers dog could have beaten Dutton.
Scottsays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 7:11 am
Doubt Labor primary vote is under 30%.
_______________________
Poll deniers are out and about.
FYI – Dawn Patrol is on the previous thread.
PHON is on 23% PV. Take that Australia.
You people don’t want to believe what Australian media reporting of Albanese government but really eager to believe what workd media says about Modi government.
There is hindu phobia in western countries.
That is reason Australian media and right wing politicians were ready to blame ISIS indoctrination on India origin muslims. Otherwise it changes Western democracies media and politicians narrative that Asian muslims are victims.
The Frydenberg renaissance/ the temporary Ley/the leftover “sunsetters”/ the Barnaby Lazarus performance// the nuclear ted mob and the wooden shaft brigade, together with Uncle Bibi’s kitchen sink have thrown at the elected Federal government.
And ……
The appointment of Virginia Bell is an astute choice.
The replacement of the State Commission with the Federal Commission is an astute decision.
The “dogs breakfast” media have displayed the biggest media tantrum since the last “hooray Henry” carry on.
The “hot air” created about the massacre is sufficient to contribute the National Electricity Grid and pushes the “black rock” brigade further down the totem pole of significance.
Australia has once again been shown to be the lucky country as Mr Albanese navigates the impossibilities of the political minefield being reset and unknown with every new front page.
The influence of the Israeli/Jewish component has been a relevation in far away Australia.
The Liberals and their “not a leader” Ley are quickly shrinking in the polls.
Does anyone not now expect “the Frydenberger” not to announce his desire to rejoin the political fray as the new Liberal leader.
Xavier Herbert is overdue with his next contribution to Australia’s modern history.
Many a wannabe commentator would love to own the words “poor fellow my country”
So according to this poll (Labor 50, PHON 50) we could see a Pauline or Barnaby government!!
But really, 23% for both LNP and PHON??
Still, Barnaby must be feeling he made the right decision in switching parties.
”
Vensays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 8:05 am
meherbaba
A lot of weeping, wailing, gnashing my teeth. Never ever comment on how minorities are treated in India.
Posted late night on previous thread
Vensays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 12:08 am
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 11:13 pm
Always good to end the night on a positive note:
”
It is not a good night I can’t see a positive aspect to today’s developments.
Albanese is damaged, ALP government is damaged, all brown and black people are implicitly accused of anti-semitism.
Albanese government established caste based system, where one small percentage of people are at the top social hierarchy.
It is like Albanese government has pulled off a defeat from the jaws of stupendous victory.
”
And it appears certain promenant people on PB changed their minds on anti-semitism RC as soon as it was apparent that Albanese would change his mind.
And what did meherbaba said. Being Jewish is itself is an identity and unique.
”
Does meherbaba think every Jewish person represents Jesus when he said Being Jewish is itself is an identity and unique.
Cathy Wilcox testing the bounds of freedom of political communication
Dissappointed Albo couldn’t stay the course.
RC will find no widespread anti-semitisim in Australia.
Akrams acted alone motivated by anti-zionisim.
Big fizzer.
Jewish lobby will go fully sick.
As you were, Straya.
”
citizensays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 8:21 am
So according to this poll (Labor 50, PHON 50) we could see a Pauline or Barnaby government!!
But really, 23% for both LNP and PHON??
Still, Barnaby must be feeling he made the right decision in switching parties
”
Why can’t we have 2PP between ALP and PHON going forward because PHON is on rise and L-NP is on decline?
It looks like Taylormade has changed his membership to OHON.
This is why Labor should have been more proactive on reform in it’s first term. Being reactive is better than nothing but in the meantime the burn the place down cohort looks to be expanding.
@mj
Garbage. Labor won the election by 94 seats. All these armchair experts are rewriting history. Even when Albanese brought the referendum on the Voice and it was defeated. All these armchair experts were complaining Albanese should have put the referendum off and delayed when his polling slumped. You can’t have it both ways.
The next federal election is not due until May 2028
As evidenced by the Bondi attack, there are so many things that could happen between now and then.
Lest anyone forget that at the last election here and in Canada, the trajectory was for the coalition and conservatives to win in each country.
What changed?
The Trump regime scared off the public into voting for its counterparts
It’s only 9 days into the new year and look at the instability everywhere around the globe
All I can say is we live in very interesting times and since the pandemic it has become even more so.
Albanese is decarbonizing the economy.
Everything else is a lesser national priority.
This is disgusting but what else can one expect from the Trump regime?
Mundosays:
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 8:24 am
[Dissappointed Albo couldn’t stay the course.]
Has Mr Albanese resigned?
Can we all just agree that Albo always intended to call an RC? It was just about timing.
And an idea: given Ahmed Al Ahmed’s expressed support for The Donald, could he be the ideal right-winger to assist the Commissioner? We should ask Bibi.
”Cathy Wilcox testing the bounds of freedom of political communication”
It does look like the sort of thing that Johannes Leak might produce were he ever to convert to Labor or Green.
It hasn’t gotten much media attention amidst other events, but the heatwave of the last two days was a major success for the renewable energy grid. Solar plus batteries was enough to get the SE Australia grid through a period of record energy demand without blackouts, or even much use of peaking gas.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-09/solar-powers-australia-through-heatwave-conditions/106211394
The challenge now is to not lose focus on wind power projects which are still important for winter heating peaks when there is not much solar power.
Thanks Socrates.
On the RC, I still think the terms relating to anti-Semitisim are far too narrow, and should have included other threats of extremist violence. But if it goes ahead with a sensible choice of commissioner (Bell) so be it.
As for Albo, the most charitable explanation on this occasion is that he mis-spoke when first answering questions about an RC. Things should blow over once poarliament debates the gun and hate speech laws.
Albo has had a bad week, no question. All politicians do sometimes.
On the RC, I still think the terms relating to anti-Semitisim are far too narrow, and should have included other threats of extremist violence. But if it goes ahead with a sensible choice of commissioner (Bell) so be it.
As for Albo, the most charitable explanation on this occasion is that he mis-spoke when first answering questions about an RC. Things should blow over once parliament debates the gun and hate speech laws.
Albo has had a bad week, no question. All politicians do sometimes.
Steve777 @ #35 Friday, January 9th, 2026 – 8:53 am
If its Cathy Wilcox’s ‘Grass Roots’ cartoon we are discussing my copy found online is going straight to the pool room!
Ahmed is in the USA getting specialist treatment for his injuries.
Why would he be stupid enough to diss Trump, who is a demented deranged deviant.
Ahmed is not a silly person. Enough said.
Socrates says:
“It hasn’t gotten much media attention amidst other events, but the heatwave of the last two days was a major success for the renewable energy grid.”
—————–
Just getting in before Landlubber: we need to elect Barnabay, Pauline and Matt Canavan to turn off all this poisonous 5G renewable shit before it gets out of hand.
Anyway, back to Summernats.
[And can Matt Canavan have a PB shorthand name to save a bit of finger flexing?]
”If its Cathy Wilcox’s ‘Grass Roots’ cartoon we are discussing my copy found online is going straight to the pool room!”
It is. Cartoon plus some reactions here: https://www.dailycartoonist.com/index.php/2026/01/07/appalling-offensive-jew-hatred-cathy-wilcox-cartoon-denounced/
The very hot dry conditions are one thing, but add dry lightning strikes and the wind. Well that is a recipe for disaster.
Holding my breath today.
Further on the topic of annoyingly stupid responses to events, the Adelaide writers festival board deserves a mention. This is what happens when politicised control-freak idiots are allowed put themselves in charge of things they don’t understand.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/08/adelaide-writers-week-dumps-prominent-academic-randa-abdel-fattah-over-cultural-sensitivity-concerns-after-bondi-attack-ntwnfb
The festival board seems to have overruled the organising committee and banned a Palestinian academic from speaking. Why? Abdel-Fatah is not-anti-Semitic. She is undeniably anti actions of the Israeli army in Gaza and the West Bank, but so are lots of people.
This is another obvious low-towing to lobbyists in a discriminatory (anti-Palestinian) manner. Now other featured writers are dropping out, damaging the event. My brother is flying down soon to catch up and attend a few sessions. Now we have to reorganise what we may or may not be able to hear.
This is a classic example of the Streisand Effect, since before the Festival boards decision, the fact that Abdel Fatah was speaking was not even making the local news. She would have been heard by a crowd of maybe 200 to 300 people in a ticketed event.
I am reminded of the 2022 festival, when Ukrainian American academic historian Serhii Plokhii attended the Adelaide Festival and I heard him speak. He gave some blunt warnings about the trajectory of Russian revanche imperialism which turned out to be grimly accurate just a few weeks later. Now he would be cancelled for fear of offending Russia.
C@t
I tried to get your morning patrol over to this thread, but no luck.
Nine accused of trivialising mass murder as chair urged to investigate ‘Jew-hating’ cartoon
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/nine-accused-of-trivialising-mass-murder-as-chair-urged-to-investigate-jewhating-cartoon/news-story/48c51a4c36b8e24544543e1909c8db7c?amp
——-
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/nine-newspapers-cartoon-on-bondi-terror-royal-commission-crossed-the-line-says-academic/news-story/80c971bfbd1b0a71361adfbfbe975350
“Nine newspapers have been accused of being “profoundly irresponsible” for publishing a cartoon suggesting repeated calls for a royal commission into the Bondi terror attack are being orchestrated by major political figures and media giants.
The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald both published a cartoon on Wednesday showing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu beating a drum.
Alongside him were media mogul Rupert Murdoch, anti-Semitism envoy Jillian Segal, former PM John Howard, Liberal leader Sussan Ley, Liberal Senator Jacinta Price, and Nationals leader David Littleproud, who were carrying a group of people calling for a royal commission.
Shocked Jewish leaders and their community are demanding answers as to why it was published, given the image suggests calls for a royal commission are being dictated by Mr Netanyahu, and have accused the newspapers of being anti-Semitic.”
Thanks Steve777 for the link to the cartoon comments.
Some people seem to have a gift for explaining what cartoons say. They should get a gig on Insiders.
Cathy Wilcox’s cartoon is wrong. The source of the astroturfing wasn’t Benjamin Netanyahu. It was much closer to home.
That’s not to say that the signatories of the various petitions weren’t mostly genuine. But it was clearly an orchestrated campaign. Someone here the other day named an ex-Liberal staffer working for a named lobbying company as the source and organiser of the various petitions. I don’t know if this is true but it seems eminently plausible. Sprocket did an AI analysis of the wording and phraseology of the petitions which indicated a common source.
As to who was paying for all this, it was probably a post-box in a tax haven. It would be very interesting to know who.
That 7.30 interview with Albo last night in my opinion was a train wreck.
I was half glad when Sarah Ferguson (she of the ‘forgive me’ but I’m going to butt in’ attack dog was given holidays,giving us all a break by the way as a bonus)
However by Thursday night this week Michael Rowland was all wound up and ready to take on a heavy weight.
My goodness the gods must be laughing,he could have done a stand up up Clarke and Dawe all by himself finishing with the gotcha ‘Will you give evidence’ at the RC? x2.Probably a better question to ask the Commissioner Michael,as seemingly who ever wrote the question or yourself have already made up their mind that he should.