New Year miscellany (open thread)

Snippets of polling on a Bondi royal commission, attitudes to Israel and various politicians’ favourability ratings, plus some federal preselection news from Queensland.

The inevitable New Year polling drought continues, though Roy Morgan’s regular monthly result may perhaps be along next week. We do have the following:

• The News Corp papers report a poll by Fox & Hedgehog, founded by former Liberal staffer Michael Horner, shows 54% in favour of a royal commission into the Bondi shootings, including 32% strongly in favour. Nineteen per cent disagree, 7% strongly so, while 27% are neutral or unsure. Coalition voters are considerably more likely to be strongly supportive, but even 42% of Labor voters are in favour with 32% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1608, with field work dates not reported.

• Nine Newspapers last week ran “net likeability” scores for an array of politicians from the recent Resolve Strategic poll, together with familiarity scores. These found respondents more favourably disposed than when the same exercise was conducted a year ago, with only two scoring net negative ratings: Barnaby Joyce at minus four and Lidia Thorpe at minus 12. David Pocock has ascended to join Jacqui Lambie at the top of the table with plus 15, the two respectively improving by one and ten points. The aftermath of Bondi notwithstanding, Anthony Albanese went from near the bottom of the table at minus 17 last year to the top end at plus nine. Other strong performers were Anne Aly (plus 12), Penny Wong (plus 11) and Catherine King (plus 11) for Labor, and Tim Wilson (plus 11) and Sarah Henderson (plus 10) for the Liberals. The biggest improvers were Joyce, whose poor result was an 18 point improvement on last year, and Pauline Hanson, up 16 to plus three. Both have a higher familiarity rating than Sussan Ley, who was known to 83% and scored plus eight on net likeability.

Pew Research has findings from a mid-year international survey on views of Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, which found 25% of Australians holding a favourable and 74% an unfavourable view of Israel, compared with a net median across 24 countries of 29% and 64%. Australia tied with the United States as the country with the highest ideological polarisation on the subject: 90% of left-identifiers professed themselves unfavourable compared with 76% for centrists and 46% for those on the right. Australians held a more negative view of Netanyahu than Americans, with 20% expressing some or a lot of confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 72% for little or no confidence.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party has opened nominations for Senate preselection. Incumbents James McGrath and Matt Canavan are expected to retain first and second position. Potential nominees for third position, which last availed the party in 2019, are moderate-aligned Maggie Forrest, a barrister who ran unsuccessfully in Ryan at the May federal election; conservative-aligned Susanna Damianopoulos, a small business owner and former electorate officer who ran unsuccessfully in Springwood at the October 2024 state election; and Benjamin Naday, a lawyer and former staffer to Karen Andrews, who unsuccessfully contested the preselection to succeed her in her Gold Coast seat of McPherson.

Sarah Elks of The Australian (again) reports Capricornia MP Michelle Landry will “decide on her future closer to the next election”, amid suggestions her retirement could make the central Queensland seat available to conservative Nationals Senator Matt Canavan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “New Year miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Pegasussays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:57 pm
    Was Albanese’s royal commission refusal cynical or considered? Either way, his backdown has come too late
    ——————————————–

    So it was to late and they can’t hold a RC now?

    Who knew RC’s were like cricket reviews and could be timed out?

  2. nadia @ #546 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 9:57 pm

    Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:54 pm
    Anecdotally, that the LNP-PHON coalition’s support base is right wing boomers doesn’t bode well for them, they’re having rather a lot of funerals lately.

    I attended one last year, of my grandmother’s brother. Nobody seemed to be particularly sad, the only person that spoke was his estranged daughter that acknowledged that he was her “biological father” and little else was said other than prayers and hymns until his coffin was moved out of the church to be transported to the crematorium.

    That’s probably going to be the fate of most of the MAGA Right when their time comes.
    ==============
    It looks like the Dems are dropping off first.
    Link: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/doug-lamalfa-dies-california

    Doug LaMalfa is a Republican.

    That would possibly be an interesting Special Election though, it’s held 65-35 to the Republicans. I doubt it would flip at a Special election though, that margin seems to be a bit too high.

  3. Taylormade @ #549 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 9:59 pm

    Entropysays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:49 pm
    Especially at this time of year when so many are on holidays and tuned out.
    _______________________
    To be honest I can’t remember a Christmas/New Year period where I have been so tuned in.
    Have virtually read every article on Bondi. I don’t think I have missed many.

    I have read absolutely every article published on news.com.au about the Lachie Neale saga.

  4. BSA Bob says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:15 pm
    And as this phase of the operation draws down, the media as always write themselves out of the story.
    All this outcry was spontaneous, none of it collated & the daily letters, demands, complaints & heart tugging stories of tragedy just magically appeared to be headlined. Nothing to do with the media at all, really.

    That’s pretty much what a SMH article said late last night (Apple news on my phone so I can’t copy and post it). The article admitted there was an organised campaign with signatures by celebrities but completely omitted any reference to the pivotal role played by NineFax or other media

  5. I am of the opinion that one of the key problems that we deal with nowadays is the constant need to react and contribute. Social media, 24/7 news cycle, click bait headlines, and blogs all encourage, actually require us, to rush in where angels fear to tread. We are told to react to everything and then are held to account for what we say or the emoji we use or whatever in some purity test. We have to contend with the witch hunters online who tell us when we crossed the line or when we are just plain wRONg. It is exhausting. Now that the PM has announced a RC we saw this afternoon the same behaviour. People were quickly out of the blocks describing backdowns, weakness, seat losses, and making assertions about what the RC will find or how the Commissioner is or isn’t appropriate. My major concern has been some of the posters on here telling us that the fix is already in, in terms of what the RC will find. The thing that we are no longer allowed to do is think, consider, ponder, consult and arrive at a reasoned decision. Everything has to be instant, now in this moment.

    Years ago a friend told me that when his teenagers asked for some new privilege, he would instantly respond. He said it almost always ended up in a heated argument, mainly because his teenager would have come ready for the fight. He decided that he would instead tell them he needed to think about it. He said that when they tried to argue he would say “look it is important to you and therefore I need to think about it.” He would then do just that – think about it and communicate however many days later it took to reach a decision. Yes there was often still an argument but the teenager could never complain that it wasn’t a considered decision. I often think that we would all do better to sit and think a bit before we respond.

    Finally I often think about one William Bowe who has to deal with all these postings and wade through them. I thank him for his site and the patience he has with us all

  6. The Royal Commission into the Black Summer bushfires was called on February 20 2020. That was well over a month after the worst of things had happened.

  7. I can’t think of anything less useful that we could spend our time on for the next 12 months than worrying about antisemitism in Australia. But hey, it’s not as if there are any more important issues to worry out, so I guess we might as well. What could possibly go wrong?

  8. Albo should have booked more time in the Kobayashi Maru simulator – would have been perfect training in deciding to call a Royal Commission.

  9. As Albanese calmly stepped through each of these aspects of the inquiry on Thursday afternoon, he methodically exposed the illegitimacy of the arguments he and his ministers have mounted in the past fortnight to defend not calling it.
    _______________________
    Take too long.
    No good for social cohesion.
    Will platform hate speech.
    Didn’t have one after the Lindt siege and Port Arthur.
    NSW is already having one.
    Would distract security agencies from doing their job.

    Have I missed any ?

  10. Mostly Interestedsays:

    I have read absolutely every article published on news.com.au about the Lachie Neale saga.
    _______________
    Tell me about it. I can’t get enough.

    #TeamJules4life

  11. Sorry Kirsdarke, I saw “California” and assumed it was an ageing Dem in his 80’s.
    My apologies. Ok, well, another special election coming up.

    Actually , looks like the next one is 10-Mar (Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s seat) in Georgia.
    That could flip Dem.

  12. Personally I think the more that Australians are exposed to that smirking rubber-faced bastard Netanyahu schmoozing along with the MAGA-right of Australia, the more annoyed they’ll become with their shenanigans.

  13. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 9:49 pm
    Especially at this time of year when so many are on holidays and tuned out.
    _______________________
    To be honest I can’t remember a Christmas/New Year period where I have been so tuned in.
    Have virtually read every article on Bondi. I don’t think I have missed many.
    ———————————–

    That’s the problem your polling demographic is skewed towards stay at home nutters and against normal holidaying families.

  14. In SA, fairly explosive claims yesterday at a parliamentary committee by a scientist that researchers were directed by at least three people not to report on the toxic algal bloom crisis until after the election.

    Perish the thought.

    Libs have recalled the committee to hear more evidence tomorrow.

    Popcorn

  15. Albo and the ALP will probably increase their majority at the next election, which is more to do with the useless opposition than anything.
    He should use his massive majority much like Howard did in ‘98 when he burned off a few dud members when introducing the GST. Do something bold, like major tax reform or mandate a spinner must be selected for the SCG test.
    This RC palaver has been dumb from day one, he should have stuck phat with his position and damned the torpedoes. Now, we’ll have endless clickbait stories of the PM caving in. With Joshy and co sniping from the sidelines, regardless of what Albo does.

  16. nath @ #563 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 10:09 pm

    Mostly Interestedsays:

    I have read absolutely every article published on news.com.au about the Lachie Neale saga.
    _______________
    Tell me about it. I can’t get enough.

    #TeamJules4life

    nath, I think this one should be taught in journalism school. A text book example on how to run a pure tabloid celebrity story.

    Each article dropped daily, each article literally adding only 1 sentence on new ‘news’, each article rehashing the previous 10 articles for those who haven’t yet seen the story and for those who waste their time (like me) scrolling through to see if there is even a snippet of a new titbit of gossip, ‘news’ scrapped from social media posts, disclaimers that the journalist isn’t making any assertions about the ‘other woman’ who they’ve mentioned 30 times in a week.

    A masterpiece of tabloid journalism.

  17. nathsays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:09 pm
    Mostly Interestedsays:

    I have read absolutely every article published on news.com.au about the Lachie Neale saga.
    _______________
    Tell me about it. I can’t get enough.

    #TeamJules4life
    ————————————-

    #TartyTess not going so well.

  18. Mostly Interestedsays:

    A masterpiece of tabloid journalism.
    __________________________
    No doubt.

    There’s also another lesson, about hubris. Just cos you win 2 brownlows and 2 flags doesn’t mean you are smooth enough to fuck your wifes besty and get away with it.

  19. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:15 pm
    In SA, fairly explosive claims yesterday at a parliamentary committee by a scientist that researchers were directed by at least three people not to report on the toxic algal bloom crisis until after the election.

    Perish the thought.
    ===========
    Is that the “maugean skate” issue for S.A?

  20. nadia:
    Actually , looks like the next one is 10-Mar (Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s seat) in Georgia.
    That could flip Dem

    On paper, CA-1 is more flippable than GA-14. But both seats are stil very tough for the Democrats.

  21. I’ve always been of the opinion that if you are going to cheat, do it on the other side of town, the other side of the country, the other side of the world.

    Only morons cheat with their partners’ friend, sister, work colleague, neighbor or cousin.

  22. Shogun @ #576 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 10:24 pm

    nadia:
    Actually , looks like the next one is 10-Mar (Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s seat) in Georgia.
    That could flip Dem

    On paper, CA-1 is more flippable than GA-14. But both seats are stil very tough for the Democrats.

    Yeah, Georgia-14 is held 64-36 to the Republicans going off the 2024 election results.

    Still though, events could happen. If the Democrats can get it to within 55-45 then that’d start making Republicans worried for the midterms.

  23. Just checked the Vic emergency map, tomorrow is going to be ugly with those northerlies. Just realised, currently fires to the north of Corryong – which was hit in 2019 and Alexandria/Marysville that got hit Black Saturday.

  24. Shogun says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:24 pm
    nadia:
    Actually , looks like the next one is 10-Mar (Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s seat) in Georgia.
    That could flip Dem

    On paper, CA-1 is more flippable than GA-14. But both seats are stil very tough for the Democrats.
    ====
    Just looking at the map of MJT’s seat, it look’s a bit gerrymandered, and yes it would require a net 14% swing away from the Repubs for the Dems to be in contention.
    The “swing” in the U.S. going by last years special elections appears to be around 12-13% to the Dems, in that the Dems are picking up around 6-7% on their primary, and the Repubs are dropping off by around 6%.

  25. nadia

    Haven’t you seen the photos of our beaches covered in algal foam? It’s costing tens of millions to fix and huge amounts of economic damage.

  26. For a moron he played an amazing two quarters in the grand final and kicked a spectacular goal at a crucial time. Yes but his alleged discretion has dampened his reputation somewhat.
    Anyway apparently we are giving back to WA in 2027 following the threepeat.

  27. nadia @ #577 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 10:25 pm

    Latest U.K. polling (2nd poll for 2026).
    Pollster: More in Common

    * REF 31% (+3)
    * TOR 23% (+1)
    * LAB 19% (-2)
    * LDEM 12% (-1)
    * GRN 10% (+1)

    Link: https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/polling-tables/january-2026-polling-tables/

    Probably of note is Tories + Reform = 54%

    Leader approval ratings looking grim too.

    Keir Starmer: 17% Approval, 64% Disapproval (-47)
    Kemi Badenoch: 22% Approval, 35% Disapproval (-13)
    Nigel Farage: 31% Approval, 41% Disapproval (-10)
    Ed Davey: 18% Approval, 28% Disapproval (-10)

  28. And now it turns out that the fire bombing of the car of a rabbi was committed by someone the police were on the tail of over a raft of crimes across the community

    So random

    NOT anti Semitic

    Those who jump to conclusions for their own tawdry purposes, hey?

    And those who, knowing the agenda of those regaling us with their opinions thru media, fail to question.

    I put before where ever did Albanese rule out a Royal Commission?

    As far as I have heard from him is a review of the security services (by Richardson) and an agenda to repair social cohesion by introducing hate speech laws and other measures recalling the parliament for this purpose – and that he was engaging with society including impacted communities

    I am one who is of the opinion that, apart from the process of a RC so orderly and focused, there are some who will politicise it for their own purposes including using media

    We see already the input on this site by a “Liberal” attack dog and this will be replicated across society to the detriment of cohesion

    Noting Ley has sought to remove any recognition of “sexuality” from the Terms of Reference (and what else noting the opposing of The Voice which was designed to give a recognition to our First People so why are the Jews given what our First People were denied – a forum to have their say? Before we get to the Liberal Party attack on immigration which includes Jews. Contradictions abound)

    But, like Jews, these “sexualised” people Ley refers to are a minority group attracting unwarranted attention from some sectors of society

    So why excluded?

    I wonder what Wilson (I was going to identify him by his IPA credentials but they are both of the IPA) thinks of that given his response to the opinion poll which gave us same sex marriage and cost Turnbull his job?

    Noting he aspires to leadership!!!

    And one final comment

    IF you are gong to do something do it once and do it right

  29. c@t, it’s my heroin, like a bowl of milk is probably yours.

    Bare with me until we get some Oz polls.

    For entertainment, I can drop a fresh, crisp NZ poll from Freshwater.

  30. nadia says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:25 pm

    Latest U.K. polling (2nd poll for 2026).
    Pollster: More in Common

    * REF 31% (+3)
    * TOR 23% (+1)
    * LAB 19% (-2)
    * LDEM 12% (-1)
    * GRN 10% (+1)
    ___________________

    Interesting, compared to the other polls, high for the Tories, about right for Labour, pretty low for greens and Ref? who knows. Anyhow at least is is a Poll

  31. nathsays:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:25 pm
    I’ve always been of the opinion that if you are going to cheat, do it on the other side of town, the other side of the country, the other side of the world.

    Only morons cheat with their partners’ friend, sister, work colleague, neighbor or cousin.
    —————————————

    I read that first as mormons for some reason. Probably should read less of this mind numbing story.

  32. Shogun says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:24 pm
    nadia:
    Actually , looks like the next one is 10-Mar (Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s seat) in Georgia.
    That could flip Dem

    On paper, CA-1 is more flippable than GA-14. But both seats are still very tough for the Democrats.

    Steny Hoyer’s seat in Maryland will be a guaranteed Dem retain though.

    There’s also an interesting Primary coming up:

    Representative Thomas Massie, a libertarian-leaning lawmaker from northern Kentucky who has long clashed with President Trump, was the rare Republican to bash the weekend intervention in Venezuela, suggesting it was a betrayal of the MAGA movement’s desire to stay out of foreign entanglements.

    Trump is backing the Massie challenger Ed Gallrein, a farmer who served as a Navy SEAL officer and is casting Massie as a roadblock to the president’s agenda. That’s a potentially potent argument in a district the president won overwhelmingly, and the May 19 primary contest is expected to be hard-fought. Gallrein, Trump noted approvingly in his post, “is a big fan of our recent attack on Nicolas Maduro, the Dictator of Venezuela.”

    Increasingly, the most vocal Republican dissent seems to be coming from the isolationist-leaning right, from figures like Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who officially left Congress this week.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/us/politics/venezuela-massie-republican-primary-kentucky.html

  33. nadia,
    Don’t worry, there will be a shedload of polls coming out in the wake of the Royal Commission decision. The pollsters won’t be able to resist either. 😉

  34. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:31 pm
    nadia

    Haven’t you seen the photos of our beaches covered in algal foam?
    ===================
    No.

  35. The Freshwater NZ Poll mentioned by Nadia doesn’t look too bad for the Left coalition there actually.

    Labour: 38%
    National: 30%
    NZ First: 9%
    Greens: 8%
    ACT: 8%
    Maori: 2%
    Other: 4%

    That should be enough for a Labour-Greens-Maori Coalition, albeit narrowly, but that seems to be how it goes over there for the time being.

  36. Freshwater Seat estimates:

    Labour: 48
    Nationals: 38
    NZF: 11
    Greens: 10
    ACT: 10
    Maori: 4

    Labour-Greens-Maori would win 62 of 120 seats, thus a majority.

  37. Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 10:32 pm
    nadia @ #577 Thursday, January 8th, 2026 – 10:25 pm

    Latest U.K. polling (2nd poll for 2026).
    Pollster: More in Common

    * REF 31% (+3)
    * TOR 23% (+1)
    * LAB 19% (-2)
    * LDEM 12% (-1)
    * GRN 10% (+1)

    Link: https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/polling-tables/january-2026-polling-tables/

    Probably of note is Tories + Reform = 54%

    Leader approval ratings looking grim too.

    Keir Starmer: 17% Approval, 64% Disapproval (-47)
    Kemi Badenoch: 22% Approval, 35% Disapproval (-13)
    Nigel Farage: 31% Approval, 41% Disapproval (-10)
    Ed Davey: 18% Approval, 28% Disapproval (-10)
    ==============
    Those figures aren’t too bad, compared to the current gov’t net/sat figure of minus 59.

    Link: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval

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