The inevitable New Year polling drought continues, though Roy Morgan’s regular monthly result may perhaps be along next week. We do have the following:
• The News Corp papers report a poll by Fox & Hedgehog, founded by former Liberal staffer Michael Horner, shows 54% in favour of a royal commission into the Bondi shootings, including 32% strongly in favour. Nineteen per cent disagree, 7% strongly so, while 27% are neutral or unsure. Coalition voters are considerably more likely to be strongly supportive, but even 42% of Labor voters are in favour with 32% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1608, with field work dates not reported.
• Nine Newspapers last week ran “net likeability” scores for an array of politicians from the recent Resolve Strategic poll, together with familiarity scores. These found respondents more favourably disposed than when the same exercise was conducted a year ago, with only two scoring net negative ratings: Barnaby Joyce at minus four and Lidia Thorpe at minus 12. David Pocock has ascended to join Jacqui Lambie at the top of the table with plus 15, the two respectively improving by one and ten points. The aftermath of Bondi notwithstanding, Anthony Albanese went from near the bottom of the table at minus 17 last year to the top end at plus nine. Other strong performers were Anne Aly (plus 12), Penny Wong (plus 11) and Catherine King (plus 11) for Labor, and Tim Wilson (plus 11) and Sarah Henderson (plus 10) for the Liberals. The biggest improvers were Joyce, whose poor result was an 18 point improvement on last year, and Pauline Hanson, up 16 to plus three. Both have a higher familiarity rating than Sussan Ley, who was known to 83% and scored plus eight on net likeability.
• Pew Research has findings from a mid-year international survey on views of Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, which found 25% of Australians holding a favourable and 74% an unfavourable view of Israel, compared with a net median across 24 countries of 29% and 64%. Australia tied with the United States as the country with the highest ideological polarisation on the subject: 90% of left-identifiers professed themselves unfavourable compared with 76% for centrists and 46% for those on the right. Australians held a more negative view of Netanyahu than Americans, with 20% expressing some or a lot of confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 72% for little or no confidence.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party has opened nominations for Senate preselection. Incumbents James McGrath and Matt Canavan are expected to retain first and second position. Potential nominees for third position, which last availed the party in 2019, are moderate-aligned Maggie Forrest, a barrister who ran unsuccessfully in Ryan at the May federal election; conservative-aligned Susanna Damianopoulos, a small business owner and former electorate officer who ran unsuccessfully in Springwood at the October 2024 state election; and Benjamin Naday, a lawyer and former staffer to Karen Andrews, who unsuccessfully contested the preselection to succeed her in her Gold Coast seat of McPherson.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian (again) reports Capricornia MP Michelle Landry will “decide on her future closer to the next election”, amid suggestions her retirement could make the central Queensland seat available to conservative Nationals Senator Matt Canavan.
This deserves re-posting from the last thread:
DPR of CBRsays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 5:00 am
Dr Doolittlesays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:11 pm
If you want background reading, here are two key articles, one from 1998 and the other 2020:
M. MccGwire, ‘NATO expansion: “a policy error of historic importance”‘ (Jan 1998, reprinted in 2008 in the leading UK international relations journal:
R. Menon and W. Ruger, ‘NATO enlargement and US grand strategy: a net assessment’ (2020):
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Setting aside the main thrust of your post – so I can keep this to merely normal sized tl;dr, I just want to give a hot take on the “background reading articles” (though not Sarotte, a whole book was greater than my level of interest).
Menon and Ruger (2020) was tolerable, but I found it unpersuasive. You mention “Putin’s key threat”, but it appears this threat only came to light 2 years after Russia had seized Crimea and started fomenting separatism in Donbas. As a critique of what NATO should or shouldn’t have done in the preceding 25 years, its not very helpful. And this sort of woolly thinking pervades the paper. It makes a decent argument for why Ukraine and Georgia should not be candidates to join NATO, but its arguments against “the project of NATO’s eastward expansion” – a phrase I detest because it completely mischaracterises the situation – are very weak for the period between 1991 and 2014. In effect it argues that a pan-European co-operative security system including Russia (but not the US) would have been preferable to an expanded NATO. That requires some heroic assumptions. In a paper that spends a lot of time dwelling on Russian fears/psychology etc, it also requires us to completely forget about the fears/psychology etc of a dozen countries with direct experience of what Russian “co-operation” looks like. The idea that a Pan-European organisation, which could only have been dominated by Russia, could have been formed is a complete pipe dream.
McGwire’s 1998 (reprint 2008) was awful when first published and worse when reprinted.
My main objection is to McGwire’s view of Russian motivations – specifically the there is no evidence (in 1998) of Russia having imperialist ambitions, which rest heavily on his view of Russian history. The only problem is his views are based on claims which are *wildly* wrong.
His views boil down to:
1. Russia isn’t expansionist, because all of the rest of Europe’s Great Powers were expansionist too. That’s schoolyard stuff. This argument would be a fair rebuttal to his claim of Britain’s view of Russia being *more expansionist* than other powers. Except, while he doesn’t justify his assertion that this was actually Britain’s view (and I don’t believe it was except at a few narrow points in time), he *does* go on to use his rebuttal of Britain’s alleged view to argue that, wrt NATO in the late 90s, Russia had not been expansionist for 200 years. Which is simply bullshit (as we shall see).
2. Russia isn’t expansionist because they started late. I mean, what? We’ll just forget about their 250 year expansion from west of the Urals to Alaska. Russia began its colonial expansion *before* Britain did, its just that they assimilated their colonies into “Mother Russia” in a way that Britain mostly didn’t, so we can ignore that the conquest of Siberia was no different to Britain’s of, say, Canada. Even the examples that he uses to show they started late are special pleading – oh, Russia got into China 40 years after other European powers…rubbish – Russia annexed NE Manchuria 15 years after the Brits took Hong Kong and before the French, Japanese and Germans got involved at all. Russia were absolutely the early adopters of Europe’s “lets carve up China” vibe.
3. Russia isn’t expansionist because they were stopped expanding before everyone else did. He repeatedly emphasises “since 1815 in Europe” (like almost everyone else *in Europe*). He claims the annexation of what are now the central Asian republics was complete before the “Grab for Africa” (sic) “got started”. Simply incorrect. The Russian Empire’s colonialism in central Asia was effectively completed in 1885. The “Scramble for Africa” was de jure completed at Berlin in 1885 – the same year! All that was left after Berlin was for imperial powers to secure control of the territories allocated in Berlin, which – shockingly – was the same task left to Russia: to secure control of their central Asian territories annexed in the 1840s to 1885.
4. Russia isn’t expansionist because some of their late-stage expansion failed. Let’s just forget about attempted subversion in Tibet in the 1890’s (failed). Russia’s war aims in WW1 to annex parts of Turkiye including Constantinople (failed). The USSR’s invasion of Xinjiang in 1934 (partially failed). The USSR’s conquest of the Baltic states, which didn’t completely “take”. The USSR taking Eastern Poland, that was an adjustment (or something), not expansion.
So, having used a lot of selective reading, cherry-picking, sophistry and special pleading about Russian history to conclude that Russia has no expansionist aims in 1998, he goes on to conclude it would have been better if Eastern Europe countries had jumped back into bed with them after 1991 instead of getting new friends. What an absurd proposition. I mean, it would have been better for Russia, and their hopes and fears, but for those countries themselves?
That this guff was republished without comment in 2008 – after Putin had given numerous examples for why alternatives to NATO’s fictitious Drang nach Osten were likely to be terrible for anyone silly enough to take that option (I’m looking at you, Belarus) – is almost comical.
Perhaps strangest of all about both of these… The alternatives proposed may have mitigated the problems the authors identify with the increase in NATO membership. But I presume they are written from an American perspective and the solutions proposed would most certainly *not* have served American interests, over any foreseeable time horizon. What actually happened, despite the negative outcomes they discuss, was better for the US, and probably better for Europe.
If you got this far, well done. I know, tl;dr…
Thank you, DPR of CBR!
I suppose everyone has heard that Donald Trump stated at the Republican retreat that he wants to cancel the Mid Term elections this year? Because HE doesn’t like the Democrats’ policies and HE thinks they would be bad for the country!!!
The man is insane and drunk on power!
Greenland looks way bigger than it actually is on most maps…any chance Trump may not know that?
Hot: https://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Trump is a diabolical deranged demented deviant.
Slip Slop Slapsays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 6:49 am
Greenland looks way bigger than it actually is on most maps…any chance Trump may not know that?
=================================================================
Trump probably suffers from school atlas syndrome; the map of every State and foreign country fills one page each; so no sense of relative size.
A lot of Australian executives ensconced in Melbourne/Sydney ivory towers suffer from the same condition.
I remember one hilarious instance; our organisation had been having an issue at Emerald for some time. A couple of senior HQ types were flying from Melbourne into Brisbane for a 90 minute early morning meeting on an unrelated matter.
They booked a late afternoon return flight and asked me to organise a hire car for them so they could duck out to Emerald after the meeting and have a look at the issue themselves before heading home the same afternoon.
I was very tempted to just hand them the car keys and wave them off.
(For those unfamiliar, it is almost 20 hours of driving round trip without allowing any time at the destination.)
I see the Visit USA campaign is running hot right now. Might consider if it wasn’t for their crackpot leader.
e.g.w I’ve fallen victim to the Qld map myself, lol.
I had a dream last night that I was flicking through an atlas don’t remember seeing Greenland but maybe I was channelling Trump’s conquest boner. In the dream when I put the atlas back it was next to a copy of 1984.
I had a reverse distance experience driving through Tassie many years ago. Used to mainland distances & looking at an average broadsheet style map, one eventually worked out that the town one was expecting to arrive at fairly soon was in fact the small gaggle of houses that’d been passed 15 minutes or so ago.
Greenland is pretty big: around 1/3 the size of Australia. But most of it is icy wasteland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sLEgQfsRMY&list=RD3sLEgQfsRMY&start_radio=1
Yep the wild ride continues.
Russian official threatens nuclear attack on US. We are here on the brink of war thanks to trump
Beautiful morning here in my part of world. Shame it’s already hot.
Can’t wait for cooler conditions on Saturday
Dr Dolittle, I have trouble with the meme ‘NATO’s expansion into the east’. It wasn’t a conscience decision by NATO to ‘go east’. That is a Russian meme to make it sound like a threat to Russia.
Former countries of the eastern block requested to join NATO. They had obviously experienced being under the yolk of the USSR and did not want to be under the yolk of Russia.
NATO is a defensive organisation and the former eastern block countries wanted to join for the defence it provided against Russia. They didn’t join so that they could threaten Russia.
This sounds potentially a little problematic for Minns. (And, don’t get me wrong, I sincerely hope it isn’t, because I’m something of a fanboy of the guy: sorry A_E.)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/labor-fundraiser-reportedly-bigger-than-official-records-suggest/106206142
BSA Bob: “I had a reverse distance experience driving through Tassie many years ago. Used to mainland distances & looking at an average broadsheet style map, one eventually worked out that the town one was expecting to arrive at fairly soon was in fact the small gaggle of houses that’d been passed 15 minutes or so ago.”
—————————————————————————–
Tassie features a lot of placenames on its map that are more or less impossible to find on the ground as there is pretty much nothing there. There must have been a property with the name at some time in the past, but it either no longer exists or has stopped putting its name on its gate.
A great example is Nowhere Else, not far from Lake Barrington in the northern inland. It certainly lives up to its name.
Trump heaps insults on NATO allies again, says it’s nothing without America
Donald Trump claimed he had pushed allies to spend as much as 5 per cent of GDP on defence and to pay “immediately”, portraying the shift as a personal achievement. Trump also asserted that without his involvement, Russia would have already taken control of all of Ukraine.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-heaps-insults-nato-allies-us-greenland-annex-denmark-glbs-2848405-2026-01-08
“US President Donald Trump has once again lashed out at NATO, questioning the relevance of the transatlantic military alliance without American support. The US president also raised doubts about whether the alliance would come to Washington’s defence if the US were to face a major security threat.
In a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said rival powers Russia and China had “zero fear” of NATO unless the US was involved.
“Russia and China have zero fear of NATO without the United States, and I doubt NATO would be there for us if we really needed them,” he wrote, adding that the US would nonetheless “always be there for NATO”.
“Remember, for all of those big NATO fans, they were at 2 per cent GDP, and most weren’t paying their bills, until I came along. The USA was, foolishly, paying for them,” he said.
“I single-handedly ended eight wars, and Norway, a NATO member, foolishly chose not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize,” he wrote, insisting his actions had saved “millions of lives”.
Me: Trump must be pissed after NATO countries criticised for thinking out loud to annexe Greenland
I posted this in previous thread pretty late. Maybe Victoria @7:38 am is referring this situation.
”
Vensays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 1:11 am
US seizes Russia-flagged Venezuela-linked oil tanker in European waters
US officials had been tracking the tanker across the Atlantic after it evaded a US maritime blockade, refused repeated boarding requests by US Coast Guard personnel, and attempted to evade interdiction by changing flags and registration.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-forces-trying-to-board-venezuela-linked-oil-tanker-from-helicopter-claims-russian-broadcaster-2848259-2026-01-07
“The United States on Wednesday successfully seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker linked to Venezuela in the North Atlantic after tracking it for weeks. The vessel, originally known as Bella 1 and now registered as the Marinera, was taken under US control on authority of a federal court warrant for violating US sanctions, the US European Command said in a post on X.”
“
”
Leadersays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:41 am
Dr Dolittle, I have trouble with the meme ‘NATO’s expansion into the east’. It wasn’t a conscience decision by NATO to ‘go east’. That is a Russian meme to make it sound like a threat to Russia.
Former countries of the eastern block requested to join NATO. They had obviously experienced being under the yolk of the USSR and did not want to be under the yolk of Russia.
NATO is a defensive organisation and the former eastern block countries wanted to join for the defence it provided against Russia. They didn’t join so that they could threaten Russia.
”
That is another convoluted way of defending USA, I guess.
37 year old woman, US Citizen shot and killed by ICE in Minneapolis. The woman was shot when she was inside the car. Blood splatter all over inside the car. Looks like a black neighbourhood
Teargas was fired at protestors as federal agents were leaving the scene.
Kristi Noem, Secretary of DHA, called it domestic terrorism.
[‘After publication of this story, former Coalition treasurer Josh Frydenberg, a top advocate for a royal commission, said he opposed Bell’s appointment, without specifying reasons.
“The prime minister has been told directly by leaders of the Jewish community that they have serious concerns about this appointment,” he posted on X.
“Prime minister, I appeal to you, this is the time to do the right thing and call a Commonwealth royal commission with the appointment of the right commissioner whose leadership will provide the answers and solutions our country so urgently needs.”] – SMH
So, Frydenberg opposes Bell’s appointment but won’t specify the reasons. I’ve got a fair idea, but I won’t specify my reasons.
Vensays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 8:03 am
”
Leadersays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:41 am
Dr Dolittle, I have trouble with the meme ‘NATO’s expansion into the east’. It wasn’t a conscience decision by NATO to ‘go east’. That is a Russian meme to make it sound like a threat to Russia.
Former countries of the eastern block requested to join NATO. They had obviously experienced being under the yolk of the USSR and did not want to be under the yolk of Russia.
NATO is a defensive organisation and the former eastern block countries wanted to join for the defence it provided against Russia. They didn’t join so that they could threaten Russia.
”
That is another convoluted way of defending USA, I guess.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Certainly the existing big powers in NATO benefit. USA, sure, but also, I’m sure that – if they had to – Germany would rather be fighting Russia outside Warsaw instead of outside Berlin.
But this mistakes cause for effect. Poland, the Baltics etc wanted to join because being in NATO serves *their* interests. If their joining also serve other countries interests, that’s irrelevant, except that it ensures a favourable vote for their inclusion.
You’re putting the cart in front of the horse.
And there is a poll of 1,100 low income families revealing that they were struggling with back to school fees and relating their stories of hardship
Low income families? And no doubt those with a history of seeking support from the Smith Family
So an expected outcome to their polling, giving the headline at The Guardian
And from my knowledge with the tribe of school age grandchildren we have and therefore knowing more widely across their friends, a headline not representative but cherry picking
No doubt, as always there are strugglers, the question being why and what solutions are available to them to improve their circumstances starting from employment opportunities so improving income
To me this is the problem with polling – and particularly polling by or for those who prosecute an agenda
Of course their polling is going to support the position they prosecute
My favourite Tassie placename is The Sideling. You’d have to know what a sidling was to be able to locate it even having been there.
Hint: we still have the word in “sidling up” to someone or something.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/BiKzpx6AfLYth6df9
“ meher baba says:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:41 am
This sounds potentially a little problematic for Minns. (And, don’t get me wrong, I sincerely hope it isn’t, because I’m something of a fanboy of the guy: sorry A_E.)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/labor-fundraiser-reportedly-bigger-than-official-records-suggest/106206142”
_______
Of course you are fan boy. Minns does a good job of projecting as a red tory.
That being said, I get the sense that the story is a beat up, based as it is on speculation by a former head office staffer who has a clear axe to grind against Jamie Clements, then state secretary (and a clearly justified axe I might ad given the personal confortomps between them) who was Minns’ boss at the time and close friend and benefactor.
It is not unusual for Labor to host big fundraising events as part of a local campaign whereby the punters get in for no more than the cost of the meal (o a little over the odds), or free, but selected ‘whales’ are duchessed for big donations. The whales feel good about been seen to support the candidate in front of a large group of their local community. The local candidate feels goos about combining a fund raising event and effectively a community rally. Win. Win.
I cant recall the times when I’ve attended such a function for between $30 and $100 a seat (which would have raised little more than about $20 per person after expenses were deducted depending on the venue and any deal with the proprietor) but there would have been several tables which seated the party’s big wigs that also had ‘community leaders’ who were clearly also donating over the entry price of the event.
Josh Frydenberg has serious concerns about pick for Royal Commission
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-high-court-justice-in-frame-to-lead-bondi-royal-commission-20260107-p5nsfm.html
Of course he has. She’s apparently not a member of the Liberal club.
This isn’t going to stop.
‘Get the f-ck out’: Minneapolis mayor’s message to ICE after killing
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/1/7/2361886/-Get-the-f-ck-out-Minneapolis-mayor-s-message-to-ICE-after-killing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
“Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey gave a heated press conference Wednesday after reports and video surfaced showing an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shooting and killing a Minneapolis woman.
“They are not here to cause safety in this city. What they are doing is not to provide safety in America. What they are doing is causing chaos and distrust. They’re ripping families apart,” Frey said. “They are already trying to spin this as an action of self-defense. Having seen the video myself, I want to tell everybody directly: That is bullshit. This was an agent recklessly using power that resulted in somebody dying—getting killed.”
Frey’s anger did not end there, as he called for federal agents to leave the city. ”
Trump regime is almost as bad as Putin regime.
There are new records for highest ever instantaneous renewable generation in Vic and the NEM:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.renewables.power.interval.high?datetime=2026-01-07T11_30_00&offset=10_00&focus=1767749400000
> That’s a 12% increase in 3 weeks on the old record.
And highest ever daily renewable generation in Qld and the NEM:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.renewables.energy.day.high?datetime=2026-01-07T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1767708000000
> That’s an 8% increase in 3 weeks on the old record.
Unsurprisingly, given the heat, NEM electricity demand yesterday was the highest it has been this year. There was also very little wind, so when the sun went down the gas turbines and batteries fired up. Consequently, wholesale prices briefly rose above $1000/MWh in Vic, SA and Tassie but stayed below $300/MWh in NSW and Qld.
The big batteries cashed in – there is a new NEM record for battery discharge:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.battery_discharging.power.interval.high?datetime=2026-01-07T18_55_00&offset=10_00&focus=1767776100000
During peak demand they were supplying >10% of grid electricity, almost as much as gas.
Home batteries would have also helped – 184,672 of which have been installed under the Cheaper Home Batteries program -> 4.27 GWh.
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/01/07/home-battery-uptake-continues-to-climb/
Greenland is about the size of WA, although on the Mercator projection it looks bigger than South America.
There’s a similar thing with Russia. It’s big, about 2¼ times the size of Australia, but it looks much bigger on a conventional Mercator world map.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 8:16 am
catching up on bludger and I came across this bit of ahistorical shitfuckery from nath. Not the first time, and he needs to be called out for spreading bullshit:
Neither Labor, nor Wong personally were the ‘last on board’ with SSM
____________________________
As usual Earlwood reads what he wants to read.
When I said virtually last on board, I wasn’t talking about Parliament, but amongst the Australian people.
And I felt sorry for Wong, not critical of her, being a hostage to the cowardice of those higher up.
Last night I received a call from The subscriptions department of The Age thanking me for my past subscription to the digital edition and asking if I would consider resubscribing for 1/2 price for 6 months.
When I originally cancelled I gave my reasons for doing so and was offered the same deal.Presumably my comments for cancelling were ignored,even if the call taker had bothered to note them down.
Does this mean that they have lost a liberal amount of subscribers since December for much the same reasons ie turning off comments because so many readers choose to disagree with company policy,or maybe the comments guy couldn’t keep up with deleting comments from pissed off readers who don’t like the tone of the paper under present editorial management?
It would be interesting if other Bludgers have also received call backs,I mean why would it be just me in the scheme of things.Could they be hemorrhaging subscribers.Hmmm.
The Likudniks won’t give up until
1. They get a Commonwealth RC
2. They get to choose the Royal Commissioner
3. They get to set the Terms of Reference
4. They get to write the report
This is not the tail wagging the dog.
This is 1 hair on the tail wagging the dog.
Groups launch court challenge to NSW laws restricting protests after terror attacks
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/08/groups-launch-court-challenge-to-nsw-laws-restricting-protests-after-terror-attacks
“A constitutional challenge has been launched against controversial laws in New South Wales that restrict protest actions for up to three months after terrorist incidents, introduced following the December Bondi attack.
The groups the Blak Caucus, Palestine Action Group (PAG) and Jews Against the Occupation ‘48 filed the challenge in the NSW supreme court on Wednesday, arguing in the court summons that the laws are invalid because they “impermissibly burden the implied constitutional freedom of communication on government and political matters”.
The co-applicants announced their intention to challenge the laws, which prevent protests being authorised by police after a public assembly restriction declaration (Pard). The laws were rushed through parliament last month after the Bondi massacre.”
GA
“Pro-Palestine groups planning a rally in Melbourne on Sunday to protest the state visit by Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, are holding a press conference at 10am this morning at the State Library of Victoria.
Among the groups involved in planning the rally are Students for Palestine Australia, who are urging supporters to distribute flyers promoting the midday rally at the State Library.
They claim Herzog is complicit in the Israeli military bombardment of Gaza launched after the Hamas attack on Israel more than two years ago.
A group of rank-and-file Labor party members has urged the Albanese government to rescind its invitation for the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, to visit Australia, voicing outrage over his country’s military bombardment of Gaza. Herzog planned the visit to show support for victims of the Bondi terror attack.”
I am astounded in the poll mentioned above that 54% are in favour of a RC.
Astounded inasmuch as for two solid weeks the West newspaper has attacked Albanese via its editorial – and today is no different. Inside the paper there is a list of signatures for the RC as well which is barely readable and hard to find who is “sponsoring” this effort – other than the West, of course
In all the sound and fury one would gather that the “demand” for a RC would show a 90% for and 10% against.
Those who argue the waning nature of the pulp press and its associated sound/vision media are on to something.
I suspect if a more rigorous poll were to be carried out, the Oz electorate would more or less divided down party lines.
It is no surprise the weight of choice for the RC is, according to the above poll, more popular with LNP supporters than Labor – which of course is the political purpose behind it all.
Morning all. The “NATO eastward expansion” meme is an argument run to justify Putin’s wars. I don’t buy it.
Every superpower talks about having a “sphere of influence”, a bit like Trump and his rediscovered Monroe Doctrine now. But that does not justify them. Spheres of influence are a hangover form the days of imperialism. I don’t support them for USA or Russia, or China over Taiwan.
None of these cases represent countries that are a military threat to the superpower. Ukraine for example, best case, could grind down and weaken Russia to the point the Russian army leaves. There is no chance Ukraine could invade and defeat Russia.
The reality is that if Ukraine and the Baltic states develop into successful democratic countries it undermines the claims of Putin that Russian citizens are better off under his rule. This is the real reason Putin has invented many excuses to invade Ukraine IMO. There is resentment of NATO’s eastward expansion sure, but I don’t think that is the reason for the invasion.
Good Morning! Here’s Your Elvis Presley’s Birthday News and Views Roundup With No MicMac!
They came to celebrate a life and avoid controversy. But this Bondi victim’s family had a message:
David Meagher said the family did not want to wade into any controversy after the attack, and only wanted to celebrate Peter’s life. But when he heard a very famous Australian say it was not a gun problem but an antisemitism problem, he said he thought, “Why can’t it be two things at once?”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/they-came-to-celebrate-a-life-and-avoid-controversy-but-this-bondi-victim-s-family-had-a-message-20260106-p5ns2i.html
Former High Court justice, Virginia Bell, in frame to lead Bondi royal commission
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-high-court-justice-in-frame-to-lead-bondi-royal-commission-20260107-p5nsfm.html
Bondi hero Ahmed al Ahmed to be feted at Jewish gala in New York.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bondi-hero-ahmed-al-ahmed-to-be-feted-at-jewish-gala-in-new-york-20260107-p5ns8u.html
Here we go. The Expenses 2.0 beat-up is here. The other travel perk politicians pocket when they go to Canberra
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-other-travel-perk-politicians-pocket-when-they-go-to-canberra-20251110-p5n98o.html
Bondi victim families plead with Labor MPs on terms of antisemitism royal commission
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bondi-victim-families-plead-to-labor-mps-on-terms-of-antisemitism-royal-commission-20260107-p5nse7.html
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing internal calls to withdraw his invitation for Israeli President Isaac Herzog to visit Australia following the Bondi massacre, highlighting the potential for social unrest when the Israeli head of state arrives within weeks.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/complicity-in-war-crimes-israeli-president-s-visit-sparks-labor-debate-20260107-p5ns8d.html
NSW MP asks home affairs minister to investigate potential foreign interference after Israel ‘targets’ him in dossier. Anthony D’Adam says document wrongly accuses him of promoting antisemitic content and is ‘clearly designed to intimidate’.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/07/nsw-mp-asks-home-affairs-minister-to-investigate-potential-foreign-interference-after-israel-targets-him-in-dossier
Inflation drops to 3.4 per cent, easing rate hike fears
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/inflation-drops-to-3-4-per-cent-easing-rate-hike-fears-20260107-p5nsb0.html
Surprise dip in inflation a lightbulb moment – but RBA unlikely to deliver interest rate bargains
Greg Jericho
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2026/jan/08/dip-inflation-rba-interest-rate
Cyclones get names but deadly heatwaves don’t. Should Australia personalise severe weather?
https://theconversation.com/cyclones-get-names-but-deadly-heatwaves-dont-should-australia-personalise-severe-weather-269100
Where will the next megafire break out? Climate change is making it tougher to predict
https://theconversation.com/where-will-the-next-megafire-break-out-climate-change-is-making-it-tougher-to-predict-272807
A Victorian CFMEU official has been arrested and charged with fraud after an investigation into allegedly falsified documents.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/cfmeu-official-arrested-over-alleged-fraud-20260107-p5nsce.html
Man fatally shot by police during welfare check in NSW. One street away from me!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-shot-dead-by-police-after-almost-six-hour-siege-20260108-p5nsgj.html
Kellie Sloane can’t beat NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns next time. But she has a winning factor to spook him.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/kellie-sloane-can-t-beat-minns-next-time-but-she-has-a-winning-factor-to-spook-him-20260107-p5nsb1.html
Groups launch court challenge to NSW laws restricting protests after terror attacks
Blak Caucus, Palestine Action Group and Jews Against the Occupation ‘48 argue the laws restrict the constitutional right to free political speech
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/08/groups-launch-court-challenge-to-nsw-laws-restricting-protests-after-terror-attacks
The Trump doctrine exposes the US as a mafia state
Jan-Werner Müller professor of politics at Princeton University
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/07/the-trump-doctrine-exposes-the-us-as-a-mafia-state
Trump’s intervention in Venezuela heralds an incomparable era. The spectre of individual leaders being personally targeted is added to Donald Trump’s arsenal of economic levers like tariffs on the one hand, and financial largesse on the other. Laura Tingle
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-07/venezuela-comparisons-donald-trump-greenland-argentina-panama/106200808
Trump’s superpower flex in Venezuela delivers a humbling blow to Putin’s Russia
President Putin has proved a useless ally to deposed Venezuelan leader Maduro, but the humiliation runs deeper: The U.S, president’s real global superpower reach is turning the Kremlin green with envy.
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-venezuela-vladimir-putin-russia-nicolas-maduro/
A ‘day of love’ with more than 100 casualties
The White House’s official retelling of the January 6 insurrection strains credulity
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/07/a-day-of-love-with-more-than-100-casualties
The Guardian view on Britain and Europe: time to move together, faster and further
The chaos that Donald Trump is causing in the world makes the case for continental solidarity and explicit repudiation of Brexit divisions
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/07/the-guardian-view-on-britain-and-europe-time-to-move-together-faster-and-further
The latest threat to NATO comes from within: Donald Trump
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/natos-latest-threat-could-be-coming-from-within-donald-trump/106205214
Trump hammers NATO allies while Greenland crisis deepens
“I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM,” says American president.
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-nato-allies-greenland-crisis-deepens/
The crisis over Greenland is here. Ishaan Tharoor
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-crisis-over-greenland-is-here-20260107-p5nsc1.html
How Trump gets Greenland in 4 easy steps
And worryingly for the Danes, it looks like he’s started …
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-easy-steps-nato-policy-deal-military/
Marco Rubio says he will meet Danish officials to discuss Greenland next week. Remarks by US secretary of state come after Greenland and Denmark request urgent meeting over Trump threats
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/france-and-allies-discuss-possible-response-to-donald-trump-us-invasion-of-greenland
Trump says he plans crackdown on defense firms over executive pay and stock buybacks. President accuses US defense companies of delivery failures and attacks ‘exorbitant’ salaries to top executives
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/07/trump-defense-companies-shareholder-payouts
Donald Trump said his administration was moving to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes in a bid to reduce home prices.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/08/trump-ban-investor-home-buying
US suspends funds for needy families in five Democratic-led states. Administration has alleged fraud in decision to halt grants from California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/07/trump-childcare-family-assistance-suspension
Discomforting moment for Beijing, caught on camera with Maduro hours before Trump’s raid
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/why-trump-s-venezuela-gambit-will-not-change-beijing-s-calculus-on-taiwan-20260107-p5ns89.html
US forces have boarded a Russian-flagged tanker off the coast of Iceland in a dramatic mission to enforce oil sanctions despite protests from Moscow, while also intercepting a second “ghost fleet” vessel in the Caribbean. David Crowe
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/us-forces-seize-russian-oil-tanker-risking-military-clash-20260108-p5nsg5.html
The ship is alleged to be part of a shadow fleet dodging western sanctions. It had no oil onboard – but was it carrying Russian weapons?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/marinera-seized-tanker-atlantic-us-uk-russia
Trump now has his very own Oil Empire
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-now-has-his-very-own-oil-empire-20260106-p5nrxf.html
Who is Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the son of Venezuela’s deposed leader?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-07/who-is-nicol%C3%A1s-maduro-guerra-son-of-venezuelan-leader/106202664
ICE officer shoots woman dead in dramatic escalation of Trump crackdown
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ice-officer-shoots-woman-dead-in-dramatic-escalation-of-trump-crackdown-20260108-p5nsgn.html
Iran hospital raid fuels protest anger as crackdown kills 29
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iran-hospital-raid-fuels-protest-anger-as-crackdown-kills-29-20260107-p5ns7z.html
What the ‘I’m an American living in Australia’ Instagram and TikTok trend reveals about both countries
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/what-im-an-american-in-australia-trend-reveals-about-usa-and-us/106135242
How smart home materials can shield us from extreme heat and cut energy bills all year
https://theconversation.com/how-smart-home-materials-can-shield-us-from-extreme-heat-and-cut-energy-bills-all-year-254614
Organiser of Indigenous deaths in custody rally vows to defy NSW protest laws
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/nsw-first-nations-rally-organiser-protest-laws-david-dungay-jr/106207676
“The organiser of a First Nations rally that was rendered unauthorised by the extension of the NSW government’s protest restrictions says he will defy the new rules.
Paul Silva organised a rally for January 18 in Sydney to protest Indigenous deaths in custody, 10 years after the death of his uncle David Dungay Jr.
:::
But Mr Silva said he would march through the streets as planned, despite the new regulations meaning that would likely be unlawful.
:::
He said it wasn’t appropriate for police to be making the decision to restrict a protest directly critical of the force itself.”
The complaints of some over the choice of RC only demonstrates the political nature of their RC demand in the first place.
I see no risk for Labor here. Most people won’t care who the commissioner is, only seeing that there is an RC.
Josh and co will only be happy if the RC is loaded with commissioner and terms in their favour. Labor would be foolish to do that.
Democrats romp to victory in Virginia special elections with increased majority.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/1/7/2361833/-Democrats-romp-to-victory-in-Virginia-special-elections?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“Democrat Mike Jones won the state Senate seat vacated by Lt. Gov.-elect Ghazala Hashmi. Jones defeated Republican John Thomas, 70% to 30%, marking an 8-percentage-point improvement on Harris’ performance in 2024, according to VoteHub.
Democrats also notched an 8-point overperformance in a Richmond-based House of Delegates district, where Democrat Charlie Schmidt defeated Republican Richard Stonage Jr. 79% to 20%, according to VoteHub.”
For once I agree with Trump on siezing the Russian flagged oil tanker, part of Russia’s “ghost fleet”.
Until recently it was not Russian flagged, and obviously being used to evade sanctions on oil. Russia has been using this as a legal fig-leaf that has no substance.
Finland recently seized a freighter in its waters suspected of cutting the Finland- Estonia underwater cables. This sort of “grey warfare” is illegal. The freighter only switched to being declared “Russian” during the voyage.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/finnish-police-seize-vessel-suspected-damaging-underwater-cable
It looks like the 37 year old woman shot and killed by ICE is a black woman.
Thanks for the roundup Cat. Trump’s threats over Greenland remain disturbing. A treaty already allows USA military bases on Greenland, of which they have several. Hence this is only about stealing mineral and oil resources.
If USA forces the sale of Greenland or invades it, NATO with USA as a member is broken. I would like to see a survey on AUKUS popular support then.
Australia is a “NATO partner” along with Japan, Korea and others, plus in five eyes. That would all need to be reviewed.
David says:
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 8:13 am
And there is a poll of 1,100 low income families revealing that they were struggling with back to school fees and relating their stories of hardship
______________________________________________
This is the article in question below – and it is one of the ones I hate the most because it gets basic facts wrong to mischaracterize a problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/australia-cost-of-living-education-school-shoes
For example, the headline is just incorrect:
“Australia’s cost of living ‘getting crazier’ as nearly half of lower-income families worry about affording school shoes”
Because the actual price of shoes for children has not increased in over 30 years (thanks Chinese + Bangladeshi slave labour!). No “real” cost trickery here, the nominal shop price has stagnated.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/sep-quarter-2025
Its frustrating because there are aspects of cost of living that are worse for low income households – yet the Guardian and this survey mob decide to tug at the heart strings and headline with the objectively worst example to start with.
Its like “We have a cost of living problem!! […rant about things where costs have fallen over the past decades…]” – the government can’t “fix” cost of living issues for things where prices are already falling.
This was covered a year or so ago in the “raising a child” space too – where ANU actually looked at the numbers and found that all the material inputs to child rearing have actually fallen (or have increased by less than wages) in recent decades:
https://theconversation.com/how-much-does-it-really-cost-to-raise-a-child-an-expert-does-the-maths-266048
“Our research doesn’t provide clues as to why fertility rates in Australia have dropped (as they have in most developed nations). Other data such as Australian Bureau of Statistics income survey and financial stress data suggest real incomes for couples with children have increased over the longer term (although not by much, if at all, in recent years). ”
“The lack of evidence here likely points to other factors driving lower fertility rates. Families may be delaying having children to focus on other pursuits, such as employment or education. It’s also more acceptable for couples, and women in particular, to choose to not have children.”
“Another possible reason is people could be being deterred by the perception of higher costs, instead of the actual cost. Or perhaps people simply want to spend their money elsewhere.”‘
“Calculating the cost of children is complex and imprecise, but it’s fair to say the evidence doesn’t show that the direct cost of kids is getting more expensive over time. Younger generations not having kids, or fewer kids, is likely related to many factors, but we can’t draw affordability down generational lines.”
Even Labor voters were net in favour of a RC.
It’s all over folks. Just the TOR and commissioner to come. And venue. Would it be Sydney or Canberra?
And Greenland going to Trump is looking more inevitable.
I’ve seen the advert a lot on YouTube. The US tourism people are up against Trump’s apparent hatred of foreigners which has caused inbound tourism to fall significantly during 2025. As with other things Trump has done, China has taken advantage of the US shooting itself in the foot. China has extended its unilateral visa free entry program to the end of 2026. This covers 48 countries including Oz but not US and allows 30 day entry.
Some years ago China had 72 or 144 hour visa free entry at specified locations, but only if in transit to a third country. This was obviously designed to boost patronage on Chinese airlines for flights between e.g. Sydney and London. We took advantage of this in 2016 but exploited a loophole in the rules which classify Taiwan and Hong Kong as third countries. Qantas had a cheap Sydney-Shanghai return fare so we added a Shanghai-Taipei return flight with Taiwan’s China Airlines and thus had two visa free transit stops in Shanghai plus two provinces in the Yangtze River delta.
The inflation across western countries especially in Western democracies was low and kept in check since early 90s until COVID because China supplied manufacturing goods and Russia supplied cheap fossil fuels.
The supply chain broke off during COVID and China implemented harsh COVID much longer than others after normalcy returned. Hence, the supply chain remained broken even longer.
Hence, The inflation rose sharply after COVID. They remained High after the commencement of Putin war followed by Gaza war.
The inflation used to be high till late 80s. To beat that we used to have high interest rates. Hence, the book and bust economy until the end of 80s.
One of the children in that story about the school shoes (and where does The Guardian find these families?), had on a pair of Nike slides. Maybe the parents should have put the money towards school shoes instead? I always did when I had school age kids and was on a tight budget. My kids got their shoes from Op Shops and K Mart.
Damien Martyn is out of hospital.
I see Josh Frydenburg is apoplectic about a retired High Court judge being appointed Royal Commisioner – though looking at Justice Bell’s CV there is this..
A University of Wollongong profile of Bell said she represented the dozens of people arrested at the first Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras in 1978 and prepared a video for the following year’s march advising people how to avoid arrest.
One would think, knowing the respective views of Judaism and Islam on homosexuality- that her nomination would be welcomed by Josh.