Last week’s release of the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns was the cherry on top of a fairly rich pool of state-level data on voting intention since the May federal election, with Roy Morgan having helpfully adopted the practice of providing state breakdowns on the primary vote as well as two-party preferred with its monthly results, Resolve Strategic continuing to provide results from the three largest states, and RedBridge Group/Accent Research intermittently joining the fun. I have thus felt emboldened to expand the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to encompass state-level measures, which you can observe through the voting intention trend page by clicking on the tabs for the five mainland states (Tasmania, alas, yields too little data to produce plausible results. This is something I didn’t get around to doing in the previous term until a few months before the election.
Things are still a bit shallow and noisy – I am dubious that One Nation is riding higher in New South Wales than Queensland, a conclusion that leans heavily on the most recent Resolve Strategic poll – but it’s useful nonetheless to have the infrastructure in place. I should also take the opportunity to again plug the Victorian state BludgerTrack, made possible by a steady stream of data from RedBridge Group/Accent Research together with the regular bi-monthly numbers provided by Resolve Strategic.
Kirsdarkesays:
I imagine it would have been very hard for Penny Wong to toe the party line about gay marriage, but she persevered and we got there in the end when the time was right
_________________
When the time was right? You mean when virtually everybody else supported it and then the ALP came on board.
D&M asks:
Anti-Semitism is whatever TPOF decides it is, from hour to hour, and day to day. By corollary, so is anti-Zionism.
TPOF is more intelligent than anyone else here, and so can easily tell who’s a legitimate critic of Israeli government policy and who’s just an old-fashioned Jew hater. According to him, he’s never wrong. It’s uncanny.
The Israeli Ministry of Diaspora Affairs – an entity I alluded to three or four days ago – has produced a public hit list of Australian academics, politicians and journalists who it regards as being anti-Semitic by virtue of being anti-Zionist, or even – heaven forfend! – pro-Palestinian.
So watch out D&M, you wouldn’t want to end up in the Ministry of the Diaspora’s bad books.
Here’s the public hit list. TPOF will dare you to link to it (as he did the other day when I first published it), casting aspersions on its veracity, and hoping that you don’t. But go ahead. Take a peek.
https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/delegitimization_antisemitism_australia_snapshot_2025-10_to_2025-12/en/Research_Reports_delegitimization_antisemitism_australia_snapshot_2025-10_to_2025-12.pdf
The first question you might want to ask yourself is: “Who’s the local mole, dobbing in Australian pollies, journos and academics to the Israeli government?”
I imagine it would have been very hard for Penny Wong to toe the party line about gay marriage, but she persevered and we got there in the end when the time was right. Now it’s something the far-right bastards can’t take away from us.
++++++++++
Look to America… are you sure? Could disappear like the snow in Spring.
“There is a corresponding problem where people reckon they can say anything they like about Jews as long as they use the words Israeli and Zionist and avoid the word Jew. ”
No TPOF ….. Its a big part of the problem where people who want to shut down criticism and even discussion about the egregiously bad behavior of the Israel Govt and Zionists of various stripes (eg: Settlers) try and conflate EVERY term, descriptor, reference with Jewishness and claim its antisemitic speech or behavior. People are getting a bit sick of it.
As the actions of Israel, and the violent Settler movement it supports and encourages get more and more obviously violent, oppressive and reminiscent of an apartheid state then it makes sense that people are going to be more and more open in their criticisms of Israel and anyone who publicly supports their actions.
Yeah, nah. Wasn’t Albanese in Labor for Palestine in his younger days?
If Herzog does end up visiting I’d expect to see protests, despite the laws against them. It could get very messy
“You mean when virtually everybody else supported it and then the ALP came on board.”
I doubt Bev McArthur’s Christian faction of the Victorian Liberal Party even now support it.
I was referring to the people, not nutters.
@nath
Yes, when the time was right, when the far-right bastards in the Coalition drew the battle-lines how they wanted for a similar scenario in how they defeated the Voice referendum, and were then defeated on those lines so not even the most homophobic arseholes in their ranks can pull it back.
They wrote it up, “Yes” won emphatically, now it’s here to stay. Not even a Pauline-Barnaby junta can repeal it without discontent.
So the people in Labor who voted against SSM were not homophobic but the liberals who voted against it were?
Anyway, three cheers for Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne for getting Marriage Equality over the line.
“Anyway, if we are going to declare anti-Zionism antisemitism, I want a good definition of Zionism.”
That Shotgun McKenzie of the Nationals has already conflated the terms in the aftermath of Bondi. 🙁
And i think there are sooooo many different stripes of Zionism that a “good”definition that actually means anything is impossible. And it seems to have changed since its inception.
I will go with what Zionism has obviously become on the world stage right now rather than any reference to what it used to be 40, 80, 100 years ago and is no longer. And that’s someone who actively supports Israel regardless of what atrocities and crimes that State commits .
Indeed. None of them remain in Australian politics now. I guess that’s the price you pay in the modern Liberal Party for enacting actual Liberal goals.
I jest, but they deserve some credit.
Most of the credit belongs to the Australian people. Not politicians.
I am Completely over the idea that criticism of Netanyahu and his regime is antisemitism. It just isn’t.
Netanyahu will be shown to be on the wrong side of history.
Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley were once on a Palestine unity ticket
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-30/friends-of-palestine-group-history-albanese-ley-carr-gillard/105580990
“Here’s a weird state of affairs. On an issue that is swinging a wrecking ball through institutions and communities across this country and indeed the democratic world, the leaders of Australia’s two major parties are quiet co-occupants of a historic unity ticket.
Both Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley are past convenors of the Parliamentary Friends of Palestine group, having joined it — or in Albanese’s case, actively co-founded it — when they were backbenchers, more than two decades ago.
Both have expressly supported the recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Albanese created the group in 1999 with Joe Hockey, who was at the time a new Liberal MP and a junior minister in John Howard’s Coalition government.
Ley joined the Parliamentary Friends Of Palestine shortly after her election to the House of Representatives in 2001, having wrested the vast regional seat of Farrer from the National Party.”
Mabwm @ #3664 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 8:23 pm
Well, he and his allies are fighting hard as hell to make that not happen.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Mabwm @ #3664 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 8:23 pm
I am Completely over the idea that criticism of Netanyahu and his regime is antisemitism. It just isn’t.
Netanyahu will be shown to be on the wrong side of history.
————————————————-
Well, he and his allies are fighting hard as hell to make that not happen.
—————————————————
Still he can’t fight history which always has the last say on genocidal arsehats.
Entropy @ #3667 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 8:31 pm
Sadly some of the genocidal arsehats do win in the long term. Namely what was done to the indigenous Americans after European colonisers got to them. Not to mention so much more elsewhere afterward.
Thankfully it’s harder for them to get away with things like that these days, but alas, not too hard for them to do so.
“Yeah, I reckon that one of Bev’s bovvers got through to Sam Groth in being like “We can make this so much worse for you”, so he decided to fold, as many people with young families would do.”
===
No it’s come from the moderate wing Kirsdarke. It’s payback against him for swapping sides to support Battin on 27-Dec-2024.
The Vic Lib moderate wing “coalesces” around the following main members…
* Pesutto
* Wilson
* Mulholland
* Crozier
* O’Brien (he leaves this year)
* McGowan
James Newbury was in that group but transferred his support to Battin in 2024. Groth likewise.
That’s how Battin got the job. The numbers.
When Battin demoted Newbury on 11-Oct-2025, he made a bad enemy.
Newbury transferred his support back to Wilson as payback.
It’s a toxic political outfit. The moderates don’t fully have the numbers to maintain outright control, hence the deal with Macarthur to keep her as Leader in the L.C. in exchange for her small bloc of votes moving to Wilson, so that Wilson could tip Battin out, which happened on 18-Nov-2025.
Wilson must feel secure at the moment to entertain pre-selections….against people she doesn’t trust.
Naturally, the people she & the moderate controlled executive council have lined up are Macarthur allies. Bev knows she’s the next target. If she loses Heath & Deeming, she’s finished.
I’m guessing she’s been hitting the phones this arvo with a conversation along the lines of…
“tip her out”.
“Her” being Wilson.
We’ll see how things go from here onwards. A toxic political outfit.
When Peter Costello was Australian Treasurer, he told Australia that Australia is built on Judeo-Christian ethos. I understand that was the situation when he said that. But let us understand that when he said that Australia was a secular country. Maybe when Australian political leaders defined Australia as a secular country, they might have thought that makes them look good o world stage after White Australia policy, I don’t know. Maybe they did not envision that Australia would be a true secular country over a period of time with a non-discriminatory immigration policy, which even Howard, Abbott and Morrison governments adhered to.
My question is why can’t we run Australia on Secular ethos rather than what Costello and many Liberal party politicians reiterated?
That is my reason why I am opposed to anti-semitism RC. Institution of anti-semitism RC conveys the message that Jewish people are the most important people of this country irrespective of their contribution (BTW, I am not questioning their contribution here). That RC conveys another message that they are top of Australian social hierarchy.
One of the reasons I was delighted and releaved when L-NP and Dutton were defeated in last year’s May Federal election was because he said that he would strip naturalised citizenship of Australian naturalised citizens and deport them if he considers they are anti-semitic(and repeated many times.
nadia @ #3669 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 8:50 pm
Ugh, toxic indeed. Really hard to see how such a team would win from here.
Although there is the possibility that Allan loses her own seat but Victorian Labor still wins. Possibly even a majority. Just yikes, they really seem to hate her in her own seat of Bendigo East.
Labor seems to be going okay in Melbourne meanwhile.
nath
Yep!
Labor were caught flat-footed. I used to bang my head into the brick wall of our terrace, wondering what Julia Gillard was thinking.
If it was just politics, it would not matter. But, the vast majority of the Labor MPs and also the membership supported Marriage Equality.
But just before I press “post”, I remember The Voice. The support from the Labor faithful was equally strong, and it accounted for nothing
On the definition of anti-Zionism and anti-semitism, the terms can be best understood in their historical contexts.
Anti-Zionism. The creation of the State of Israel as a vestige of colonialism, the subsequent dispossession of the Palestinians, and also religious disputes within Judaic and Islamic traditions all have impacted on the pro-Zionist cause. In short, political, ideological and religious issues.
Anti-semitism. The root cause here is racism. An identifiable minority who maintain their own traditions, accumulate wealth and possessions, and generate tropes. This has been in evidence for over 2,000 years. Other examples of this type of racism are the Hokkien-speaking Chinese in SE Asia, and Indians in Fiji.
The present day conflation of the two terms seeks to justify the excesses of the former, with the human rights entitlement of the latter.
Off-topic, but an interesting video about Australian WW1 General John Monash from “The Great War” youtube channel.
https://youtu.be/mD1m2-4jfs8?si=9OFbTnr_v2wpW1Te
Ugh, toxic indeed. Really hard to see how such a team would win from here.
==========
Don’t think they will win this year, but we’ll see what turns up in the polls etc. They “hit 40” on one of the final polls last year, but it’s not enough me thinks. They need a consistent 44-45 %.
They have that court case on 27-Mar. It will probably get adjourned, but whilst it’s unresolved it’s still a festering issue.
They haven’t cleaned out the party since the Baillieu fiasco. There’s no policies, nothing of substance anyway and you could jot down notes from any of Jess Wilson’s speeches over the past 4 years on the back of a postage stamp – and still have space left.
I haven’t seen any specific seat polling for the Premier’s Bendigo East seat, although I know she’s sitting on roughly minus 40 net/sat.
The net/sat though doesn’t elect the gov’t. It’s the 2PP, as we all know.
“seeking to avoid a royal commission into the Bondi terror attack at all costs.”
What costs?
The LNP lobby & propagandists have already flung as far a net as they possibly could, including Labor rats.
What’s left? The Australian Lawn Bowls team combine with the Graffiti Sprayers of Australia to demand a Royal Commission?
Did you notice that Australian media and L-NP politicians repeatedly emphasis that the father – son murderers of Bondi beach shootings are influenced by ISIS (which originated in Arab world), implying that they went to Phillipines to get some training and/ or advice from ISIS handlers without any shred of evidence. They never mention the origin of those 2 killers.
I have my suspicions because of that a lot of Australians think those terrorists are arab extraction.
They don’t mention the father came to Australia from India on student visa in 1998 when Howard was PM, married a Christian Italian woman the next year, got PR while Howard was still PM, got gun licences and 6 guns when L-NP was in power at state and federal level.
Hence, a lot of rise in Islamophobia is directed towards Arab muslims especially against Muslim women, who are easy targets.
@Nadia
Yeah, just that Allen holds Bendigo East on 61-39 and there were swings above 10% in that part of the electorate in last year’s federal election, which would be enough to flip the seat to the Nationals.
I think that’s a big problem for her that needs to be solved by winter. I’m sure there’s intense polling being done there, mostly internal so we won’t know about them, but the conditions there are nonetheless concerning.
In the Victorian state election
Still think the leader which will lose the seat,
Jess Wilson likely loses her seat with primary vote of 41%
Scott @ #3679 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 9:14 pm
Heh, wouldn’t that be a spectacle? Both Allen and Wilson lose their seats. I couldn’t even begin to predict what would happen from there.
Ven says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:52 pm
My question is why can’t we run Australia on Secular ethos rather than what Costello and many Liberal party politicians reiterated?
__________________________________________________
So despite the haters, my view is that Australia is still the best expression of a multicultural society today, even with the qualifier of “far from perfect”.
But I believe I have a diagnosis to your question (unfortunately not a solution), though my diagnosis is likely to offend quite a few.
No where on earth is able to separate the identity of “culture” as separable from “religion” where it pertains to people from the areas carved up by the Sykes–Picot Agreement, and by the people who did (or are happy with) the carving – and this is the problem.
“Religion” is practically not a problem for any other migrant group, even if those individuals are active faith practitioners. It is in the language we speak – I go to a Japanese restaurant (not a Shinto restaurant); I go to the Vietnamese baker (not the Buddhist baker); I eat a Turkish kebab (not a Muslim Kebab); I go to the Indian grocer (not the Hindi grocer) etc.
But the “middle east” (the Arabian peninsula part), we always talk in terms of people by religion. It is “Islamophobia” not “anti-Saudi/Iraqi/Irani”, or “antisemitic” and not “anti-Israel”. And white people (specifically Anglos) are incapable of not thinking this way, either to a lack of care of the region’s history outside taking sides in recent foreign escapades, or through their own religious beliefs (the uber Christians).
I don’t know, that is a bit of a ramble, perhaps it can be summed up as “its the British’s fault”. But when I think of conflict in most parts of the world, it is usually over resources – so when these migrants come to Australia and find us as a land of plenty (generally, but we will go with it), you suddenly find that the Pakistani and Indian neighbors no longer have to fight over water rights.
But there is just something about everyone and anyone connected to Jerusalem that just sends them crazy…
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 9:18 pm
Heh, wouldn’t that be a spectacle? Both Allen and Wilson lose their seats. I couldn’t even begin to predict what would happen from there.
————————————-
It would be very unique,
still think Jacinta Allen seat is comfortable held for labor .
Prediction.
Jess Wilson won’t lose Kew.
Jacinta Allan faces a fight before holding easily enough to be home on election night.
Now this, I support. Maybe other bludgers may be interested in signing this petition.
https://jewishcouncil.good.do/unity/jewish-council-petiton/?v=8659352d
Scott @ #3682 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 9:25 pm
Meanwhile at the moment I don’t think it would be a comfortable hold, but probably a narrow hold, within 53-47, but with the potential of being worse than that.
We’ll just have to see how things go until the election in November.
K
Hopefully you are on the wrong track and influenced by the CFA and other minority groups affiliated with the Liberal Party
So very loud but no real numbers
And I would suggest that most will support the funding obligations for the CFA where the CFA appear cannibalising themselves by opposing based on politics
The trust is that most voters are proud to vote for the lady who is Premier if the State – and doing a reasonable job
You are never going to please all of the people all the time and most accept that
Then there is who is the alternative?
Noting what we see of the brutal IPA (so austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down – see New Zealand and why their citizens are flocking here) v Bible Bashers fight to control the Victorian Division (and where is Sukkar who recruited from the Eastern Bible Belt with the disgraced former President – name? – and Kevin Andrews now? That recruiting gained control of the Party, the question being their funding where business funding has fallen and their funding arm, Cormak, is in the control of the sidelined old guard where a motza was spent on the Court battle so the old guard is far from pleased)
And in terms of the Israel government sitting behind anti semitism and the holocaust- so who survives because WW2 finished 80 years ago – the Catholic Church comes to mind
This brutal assessment is courtesy of the article in The Guardian today and the matter referred to Burke – and what do the Greens supporters on here have to say on that given those targeted?
And with the daughter of a Liberal Party icon and from the IPA, it will come down to who Holmes a Court and his committee select as the Teal candidate noting the narrow margin and that the Wilson was not known and now is
David
Bit hard for Kevin Andrews to be influencing the Liberal Party.
”
Pegasussays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley were once on a Palestine unity ticket
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-30/friends-of-palestine-group-history-albanese-ley-carr-gillard/105580990
“Here’s a weird state of affairs. On an issue that is swinging a wrecking ball through institutions and communities across this country and indeed the democratic world, the leaders of Australia’s two major parties are quiet co-occupants of a historic unity ticket.
Both Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley are past convenors of the Parliamentary Friends of Palestine group, having joined it — or in Albanese’s case, actively co-founded it — when they were backbenchers, more than two decades ago.
Both have expressly supported the recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Albanese created the group in 1999 with Joe Hockey, who was at the time a new Liberal MP and a junior minister in John Howard’s Coalition government.
Ley joined the Parliamentary Friends Of Palestine shortly after her election to the House of Representatives in 2001, having wrested the vast regional seat of Farrer from the National Party.”
”
STUNNING TO PUT IT MILDLY.
A_E quote that “progressive politics goes and dies in Israel-Palestine politics.
Labor should defund the CFA next term. Let the cookers fund it themselves. Labor will never win the redneck bogan racist areas no matter what they do. Keep the towns safe with regular Fire Rescue Victoria staff & stations.
”
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:31 pm
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Mabwm @ #3664 Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 – 8:23 pm
I am Completely over the idea that criticism of Netanyahu and his regime is antisemitism. It just isn’t.
Netanyahu will be shown to be on the wrong side of history.
————————————————-
Well, he and his allies are fighting hard as hell to make that not happen.
—————————————————
Still he can’t fight history which always has the last say on genocidal arsehats
”
Trump and Netanyahu are currently winning.
At what cost to the world?
It doesn’t matter to them.
And just to add the Teal candidate who very narrowly was unsuccessful despite being outspent by millions (yes millions) is now on Council as are a raft of other Teal reps with just the one antiquated Liberal left
So plenty of options for a well known candidate
Wilson is in strife and the hatchet job she is now mounting is not helping
She is a pawn in the hands of her father and his sub branch and with no talent except privilege
Land
The question is where is Sukkar, who with Andrews recruited the Pentecostal numbers
Savvy?
Why did Turnbull lose the leadership after the same sex vote?
Ghost Of Whitlam
People are upset about a tax, not cookers. CFA areas swung to Labor in 2018, after the Herald Sun ran a save the CFA campaign.
Not sure how this made it through to the keeper.
“ Mr Albanese is under pressure to ensure that a royal commission into anti-Semitism can call serving and former ministers as witnesses as it examines the lead-up to the Bondi terror attack.”
It’s not a RC into anti-Semitism. It’s a RC into the Bondi terrorist attack.
Former ministers! How far are we going back! What’s the rules on a minister or PM being compelled to give evidence?
David
Jess Wilson isn’t in strife, Sophie Thorney looks set to remain a councillor.
“It’s not a RC into anti-Semitism. It’s a RC into the Bondi terrorist attack.”
The would-be RC is about whatever whoever is calling it wants it to be about, because it’s not real and it’s only being “called” for by various operators.
Diogenessays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 9:55 pm
Not sure how this made it through to the keeper.
“ Mr Albanese is under pressure to ensure that a royal commission into anti-Semitism can call serving and former ministers as witnesses as it examines the lead-up to the Bondi terror attack.”
It’s not a RC into anti-Semitism. It’s a RC into the Bondi terrorist attack.
——————————————————–
Exactly, it sounds like someone wants it to be a large scale fishing expedition though.
Landlord of the Year says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 9:43 pm
David
Bit hard for Kevin Andrews to be influencing the Liberal Party.
==========
Yep, but I suppose anything is possible these days.
Also David, Jess Wilson isn’t the daughter of a Liberal Party “icon”.
She’s the daughter of this bloke – https://web.archive.org/web/20120401075409/http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/re-member/bioregfull.cfm?mid=172
He held the former seat of Bennetswood (inner east of Melbourne) b/w 1999-2002.
Jewish leaders want James Allsop or Michael Lee as commissioner. Labor floating Virginia Bell according to The Australian.
Allsop signed a letter so he’s out.
Nadia
Who is the icon David talks off. I knew Jess father was Ron Wilson, maybe David confused Jess with Hamer.
“ South Australian independent MP Nick McBride says he will run for re-election in the South East seat of MacKillop, despite being charged with assaulting his wife.
The Adelaide Magistrates Court heard the allegations were “denied and disputed”, and Mr McBride has been granted release on strict home detention bail conditions.”
How can you run if you’re on home detention? If you won, you couldn’t turn up to parliament.