Last week’s release of the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns was the cherry on top of a fairly rich pool of state-level data on voting intention since the May federal election, with Roy Morgan having helpfully adopted the practice of providing state breakdowns on the primary vote as well as two-party preferred with its monthly results, Resolve Strategic continuing to provide results from the three largest states, and RedBridge Group/Accent Research intermittently joining the fun. I have thus felt emboldened to expand the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to encompass state-level measures, which you can observe through the voting intention trend page by clicking on the tabs for the five mainland states (Tasmania, alas, yields too little data to produce plausible results. This is something I didn’t get around to doing in the previous term until a few months before the election.
Things are still a bit shallow and noisy – I am dubious that One Nation is riding higher in New South Wales than Queensland, a conclusion that leans heavily on the most recent Resolve Strategic poll – but it’s useful nonetheless to have the infrastructure in place. I should also take the opportunity to again plug the Victorian state BludgerTrack, made possible by a steady stream of data from RedBridge Group/Accent Research together with the regular bi-monthly numbers provided by Resolve Strategic.
Socrates at 4.24 pm and Matt at 5 pm
1. “I think it would have been in their [NATO’s] interests to do more to help Ukraine.”
Certainly, but it was complicated, partly because Ukraine, unlike Estonia after 2004, wasn’t in NATO. Therefore Putin doubted the willingness of Western states to fight to defend Ukraine. NATO’s constitution prevents states with unresolved territorial disputes from joining it.
2. “NATO is supposed to be focused on the defense of Europe and Putin’s military adventurism plainly ramped up after 2014, or even 2008. Yet NATO failed to see any risk to itself, or improve its military capability.”
Do you presume that Putin’s imperialistic ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, or, to be more precise, beyond Transdniestria and Belarus in the West? If so, where is the evidence for that?
NATO, particularly the US, did improve Ukraine’s military capability in the 8 years after Putin grabbed Crimea. The reason why NATO did not respond in a stronger way was expressed by Obama after the annexation of Crimea, when he described Russia under Putin as nothing more than a “regional power”. Obama, who was well advised, though Putin’s imperialism limited.
The primary target of Putin’s imperialism has always been Ukraine, ever since the poisoning of Yushchenko in the autumn of 2004, which contributed to the protests against the fraudulent run-off vote and, after the Ukrainian Supreme Court’s intervention, to Yushchenko’s victory.
A large motivation for Putin’s war is extreme bloody-minded vengeance against the country that escaped his geopolitical orbit, or rather attempted to do that (the result is still unclear).
There is another, deeper sense in which “NATO failed to see any risk to itself”, understood long ago by Keating much better than many armchair strategists. This involves the project of NATO’s eastward expansion, which clearly breached undertakings given to Gorbachev and Shevardnadze by Secretary of State Baker and German Foreign Minister Genscher. The story is well covered in Sarotte’s book Not One Inch: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv22fqbtq
If you want background reading, here are two key articles, one from 1998 and the other 2020:
M. MccGwire, ‘NATO expansion: “a policy error of historic importance”‘ (Jan 1998, reprinted in 2008 in the leading UK international relations journal:
https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2008.00769.x
R. Menon and W. Ruger, ‘NATO enlargement and US grand strategy: a net assessment’ (2020):
https://sci-hub.se/10.1057/s41311-020-00235-7 (the key threat from Putin is at top p 384)
3. It is a tragedy for Zelenskyy and his advisers that they ignored Palmerston’s aphorism. They presumed the US would be their eternal ally, without understanding US domestic politics, and without recognising that a territory with oil matters much more for the US than one with coal.
4. Both SBS and ABC TV news reported the Starmer/Macron promise of troops on the ground in Ukraine in a simplistic way, without noting that such a promise reduces the incentive for Putin to stop his war, because continuing his war will ensure that promise never becomes a reality.
Diogenessays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:08 pm
AM
It was where in the Philippines that they went that was the problem. A know area for ISIS training. Which it sounds like fell through.
———————————————-
Sounds like they went looking for ISIS contacts on the dark web and got scammed. While not everyone who says their a Nigerian Prince on the internet actually are. It appears not everyone who says they run a ISIS training camp in Mindanao on the internet actually does that too.
I hear the LNP are going to be reaching out to the Australian O65’s Seniors Mixed Netball squad and the Gender Critical Anti-Trans Harry Potter Fanclub Queensland Chapter to submit open letters about having a royal commission.
The pressure is intensifying!
They sure didn’t go there on a fishing trip.
Media complaining about “left wing judge” – I see the media has skipped to stage 5 before stage 4 has been confirmed:
******
1) Gov announces course reversal and intention of an RC
2) MSM proclaims triumph, editorials on “Albo weak/bad”
3) left wing media freaks out, proclaims a “deal will be done” with the LNP for a super Israel inquisition
4) Labor and Greens pass a broad “racism bad” RC
5) MSM freak out, anoint Albo as antisemite of the year
6) Polls show small bounce positive for Labor
7) MSM pull out a rushed Expense Scandal Mk 2 (or similar) to overcorrect.
Well they have reached out to the old farts with prostate cancer group but I refused to sign. 🙂
Nevertheless,
Do we really expect our law enforcement agencies to check exactly where everyone is travelling within the Philippines? Or any foreign country?
Landlord of the Year says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:00 pm
Virginia Bell has an impressive CV, and being gay gives her an understanding of discrimination, both direct and casual.
===============
Gosh, so we’re probably going to get a narrative of “left wing lesbian” to Chair this RC, despite the fact one actually hasn’t been officially called, & yet for some reason the SMH/Age has the details of the possible Presiding Justice.
I sort of have to agree with Taylormade – in that I’m not too sure what sort of show is being run down in Canberra atm, but whatever it is, it’s leaking like a sieve and seems a bit all over the place.
Perhaps it may have been best to announce the commission shortly after his Cloncurry visit yesterday, and then appoint someone rather than have all this media froth and speculation and who’se political views align left or right.
Out of interest, to satisfy the left/right thing, is it possible to appoint two Commissioners.
ie: one who is notably left and another who is notably right, or is that just turning this whole thing into more of a farce.
Nadia
There can be more than one commissioner, the child abuse royal commission had six commissioners.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:16 pm
I hear the LNP are going to be reaching out to the Australian O65’s Seniors Mixed Netball squad and the Gender Critical Anti-Trans Harry Potter Fanclub Queensland Chapter to submit open letters about having a royal commission.
The pressure is intensifying!
===========
Ghost,
The grand finale is scheduled for next week, including some of Australia’s heavy hitters.
* Agro
* Fat Cat, &
* Humphrey B Bear to do the public speaking bit.
Is the regime on its last legs? Hard to see them getting back in control of the streets as the economy plunges even further and the bazaars stay closed:
On Tuesday, January 6, 2026, the flames of the uprising blazed in various cities across Iran, terrifying the clerical regime. In Abdanan (Ilam province), the city has been effectively taken over by the people and rebellious youths. Large crowds control the streets. When the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attempted to attack the people, rebellious youths confronted them, setting fire to the Ofogh Kourosh chain store, which is owned by the IRGC. Unable to resist, the mercenaries and repressive forces cowardly took refuge on the roof of the police station. The regime, fearing the spread of the uprising, has cut off the city’s electricity.
https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/statement-iran-protest/iran-malekshahi-and-abdanan-fall-to-the-people-as-repressive-forces-flee-from-rebellious-youth/
In Abdanan:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/u4eE8p_njDY
I believe they are chanting ‘death to Khamenei’
I’m just glad Minns isn’t in Tehran.
Have the Au Pairs and Nannies Association submitted a petition yet?
If not it must only be a matter of time.
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:05 pm
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 10:40 pm
What an A Class knob Michael Danby is! ‘This isn’t a normal Labor government’. He can get in the bin! Good riddance to bad rubbish! Thank goodness he’s nowhere near a Labor government anymore.
_______________________
The opposition, the media and now the ALP is at war with itself.
I don’t know who is running the show up there at the moment, but they really need to recalibrate.
For the country’s sake.
Lol, Taylormade. Have you looked at the Victorian Liberal Party lately? Now THAT’S a party at war with itself! 😆
Nice try at deflection though. You get points for that.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks for the many links.
“ Do you presume that Putin’s imperialistic ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, or, to be more precise, beyond Transdniestria and Belarus in the West? If so, where is the evidence for that?”
I was thinking of the Baltic states. Various Russian figures have made statements about getting them back.
https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/06/11/russias-strategic-signaling-the-baltic-states-in-moscows-new-precondition-for-ending-the-ukraine-war/
Also I meant that NATO had failed to restrengthen its own defence forces between 2014 and 2022, irrespective of helping Ukraine. Most have only really stepped up defence spending since the 2022 invasion.
I would say Putin also has ambitions on Moldova as well as Transnistria. Russia spent considerable effort trying to influence their recent election towards a pro-Moscow candidate.
This apparently shows police in Abdanan applauding the protesters and joining in the chanting.
As Sprocket says, huge if true:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kG-BNg85fw
Melville Island is the second largest island, Kangaroo Island is third.
And I think Melville Island would make a much better settlement site for those who previously immigrated to Europe and their descendants.
I sort of have to agree with Taylormade – in that I’m not too sure what sort of show is being run down in Canberra atm, but whatever it is, it’s leaking like a sieve and seems a bit all over the place.
It’s called throwing chum in the water to see who bites. So far they’ve got you, nadia, and Taylormade on the hook. Sounding pretty homophobic(‘left wing lesbian’), if you don’t mind me saying so. And I know it was merely a characterisation rather than an accusation. You do know that there is a global push on again to vilify homosexuality, and especially in America, to overturn Same Sex Marriage? They start by getting people to have contempt for homosexuals, simply because they are Same Sex attracted. Then when there is a generalised backlash against homosexuals, a Red State in the US will bring a case to the Supreme Court to overturn Gay Marriage, which they would be inclined to do as it stands right now. Then other countries follow their lead, especially in the UK if that nong, Nigel Farage, gets in to power. Then, before you know it in Australia, the Christian Conservative faction in the Liberal Party, if they ever get into power in a state, will overturn it here, or federally if the same thing happens.
So, I’d leave a person’s sexuality out of commentary. It’s the right and proper thing to do. Judge the judge chosen on their body of work. Which is what the media should do too.
Nath*,
It wouldn’t be the first time demonstrations in Iran have led to bugger all. Let me know when something actually happens.
* = Or with a lowercase n, possibly.
I’m trying to be consistent with being critical of posters starting proper nouns with lower case letters. (Nadia and Nath, I’m looking at you.)
Ante Meridiansays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:50 pm
Nath*,
It wouldn’t be the first time demonstrations in Iran have led to bugger all. Let me know when something actually happens.
_______
Post your home phone number so I can ring you with updates.
L of the Y yes I was going to mention the Child Abuse RC. I grew up in the same place as one of the commissioners. We were both heavily involved in the local Anglican Church. For a time we were good friends he being the Boys Club leader and I was the assistant.
He joined the police. I got married and moved away so we lost contact.
Ante Meridian says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:57 pm
I’m trying to be consistent with being critical of posters starting proper nouns with lower case letters. (Nadia and Nath, I’m looking at you.)
It’s over. Run up the white flag. The younger generations have just about thrown every rule in the bin.
Spelling, capitalisation, even full stops are going the way of the Dodo on messaging apps.
Wait until you start seeing this ‘i’ instead of this, ‘I’, all the time. 😯 🙂
C@tmommasays:
It’s over. Run up the white flag. The younger generations have just about thrown every rule in the bin.
________________________
Some people are even using symbols in place of vowels. 🙂
Corleone at 10.26pm.
I live in the Perth Hills where the risk of bushfire is relatively high and pay $108 per year for the ESL.
Does anyone know what a Victorian home owner in a similar area would pay? I note that there has been an increase and this is causing some grumbling.
The WA ESL was introduced in 2003 by the Gallop Laboe Govt. The conservatives promised to repeal it but weren’t game to do so. Before the ESL we used to run raffles and undertake other fundraising for our bushfire brigades. No more and we are not going back to the old system. There wouldn’t be a volunteer bushfire service if they did.
By the way, our brigades have never been so well equipped. If CFA members aren’t happy with their equipment, only more money can fix that.
Some people are even using symbols in place of vowels.
Gotta keep up with the youngs. 😉
I miss the old days, when we’d argue on this blog about ending sentences with prepositions or using ‘less’ with count nouns instead of ‘fewer’. Or, my all time favourite, ‘try and’ instead of ‘try to’.
*sigh*
Ante Meridien,
You can always print those conversations out from the archives and pretend that that’s the way it still is. 😉
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:50 pm
I sort of have to agree with Taylormade – in that I’m not too sure what sort of show is being run down in Canberra atm, but whatever it is, it’s leaking like a sieve and seems a bit all over the place.
It’s called throwing chum in the water to see who bites. So far they’ve got you, nadia, and Taylormade on the hook. Sounding pretty homophobic, if you don’t mind me saying so. You really need to stop listening to so much Right Wing radio. You do know that there is a global push on again to vilify homosexuality, and especially in America, to overturn Same Sex Marriage? They start by getting people to have contempt for homosexuals, simply because they are Same Sex attracted. Then when there is a generalised backlash against homosexuals, a Red State in the US will bring a case to the Supreme Court to overturn Gay Marriage, which they would be inclined to do as it stands right now. Then other countries follow their lead, especially in the UK if that nong, Nigel Farage, gets in to power. Then, before you know it in Australia, the Christian Conservative faction in the Liberal Party, if they ever get into power in a state, will overturn it here, or federally if the same thing happens.
So, I’d leave a person’s sexuality out of commentary. It’s the right and proper thing to do.
============================
c@t, I’m looking at the angles being thrown around – which is already occurring in the media, despite the fact that a RC hasn’t even officially been called.
For the record, I couldn’t care less about her sexuality. I’m more interested in the comment in the paper about her “left wing” background. It suggests polarisation of our courts, is creeping into Oz.
…and with regard to describing someone as “gay”, guess which Justice said that it is not an issue.
Link: http://www.growingpassion.org/2009/02/congratulations-high-court-judge.html
Also, I don’t believe Taylormade has commented on her sexuality.
Look’s like there is some fresh polling in the Daily Telegraph.
Can someone jump in pls……something about 54% of voters want a Federal RC.
That’s all good, nadia. I’m just very sensitive to the Right trying to take away another hard won right by starting a public vilification campaign based upon someone’s sexuality.
Josh Frydenburg is putting his oar in the water again:
Jewish leaders have privately acknowledged they risk blowback from the wider community if they appear to be making political attacks against the royal commission after the prime minister yields.
After publication of this story, former Coalition treasurer Josh Frydenberg, a top advocate for a royal commission, said he opposed Bell’s appointment, without specifying reasons.
“The prime minister has been told directly by leaders of the Jewish community that they have serious concerns about this appointment,” he posted on X.
“Prime minister, I appeal to you, this is the time to do the right thing and call a Commonwealth royal commission with the appointment of the right commissioner whose leadership will provide the answers and solutions our country so urgently needs.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-high-court-justice-in-frame-to-lead-bondi-royal-commission-20260107-p5nsfm.html
No worries c@t. All good.
I know it’s late, but do you have electronic access to the Daily Tele.
If not, we’ll deal with it tomorrow morning.
Have a good night.
nadia,
No, sorry, I don’t have access to The Daily Telegraph. I think sprocket_ may do. 🙂
Yes, time to turn in.
US seizes Russia-flagged Venezuela-linked oil tanker in European waters
US officials had been tracking the tanker across the Atlantic after it evaded a US maritime blockade, refused repeated boarding requests by US Coast Guard personnel, and attempted to evade interdiction by changing flags and registration.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-forces-trying-to-board-venezuela-linked-oil-tanker-from-helicopter-claims-russian-broadcaster-2848259-2026-01-07
“The United States on Wednesday successfully seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker linked to Venezuela in the North Atlantic after tracking it for weeks. The vessel, originally known as Bella 1 and now registered as the Marinera, was taken under US control on authority of a federal court warrant for violating US sanctions, the US European Command said in a post on X.”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 11:11 pm
If you want background reading, here are two key articles, one from 1998 and the other 2020:
M. MccGwire, ‘NATO expansion: “a policy error of historic importance”‘ (Jan 1998, reprinted in 2008 in the leading UK international relations journal:
R. Menon and W. Ruger, ‘NATO enlargement and US grand strategy: a net assessment’ (2020):
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Setting aside the main thrust of your post – so I can keep this to merely normal sized tl;dr, I just want to give a hot take on the “background reading articles” (though not Sarotte, a whole book was greater than my level of interest).
Menon and Ruger (2020) was tolerable, but I found it unpersuasive. You mention “Putin’s key threat”, but it appears this threat only came to light 2 years after Russia had seized Crimea and started fomenting separatism in Donbas. As a critique of what NATO should or shouldn’t have done in the preceding 25 years, its not very helpful. And this sort of woolly thinking pervades the paper. It makes a decent argument for why Ukraine and Georgia should not be candidates to join NATO, but its arguments against “the project of NATO’s eastward expansion” – a phrase I detest because it completely mischaracterises the situation – are very weak for the period between 1991 and 2014. In effect it argues that a pan-European co-operative security system including Russia (but not the US) would have been preferable to an expanded NATO. That requires some heroic assumptions. In a paper that spends a lot of time dwelling on Russian fears/psychology etc, it also requires us to completely forget about the fears/psychology etc of a dozen countries with direct experience of what Russian “co-operation” looks like. The idea that a Pan-European organisation, which could only have been dominated by Russia, could have been formed is a complete pipe dream.
McGwire’s 1998 (reprint 2008) was awful when first published and worse when reprinted.
My main objection is to McGwire’s view of Russian motivations – specifically the there is no evidence (in 1998) of Russia having imperialist ambitions, which rest heavily on his view of Russian history. The only problem is his views are based on claims which are *wildly* wrong.
His views boil down to:
1. Russia isn’t expansionist, because all of the rest of Europe’s Great Powers were expansionist too. That’s schoolyard stuff. This argument would be a fair rebuttal to his claim of Britain’s view of Russia being *more expansionist* than other powers. Except, while he doesn’t justify his assertion that this was actually Britain’s view (and I don’t believe it was except at a few narrow points in time), he *does* go on to use his rebuttal of Britain’s alleged view to argue that, wrt NATO in the late 90s, Russia had not been expansionist for 200 years. Which is simply bullshit (as we shall see).
2. Russia isn’t expansionist because they started late. I mean, what? We’ll just forget about their 250 year expansion from west of the Urals to Alaska. Russia began its colonial expansion *before* Britain did, its just that they assimilated their colonies into “Mother Russia” in a way that Britain mostly didn’t, so we can ignore that the conquest of Siberia was no different to Britain’s of, say, Canada. Even the examples that he uses to show they started late are special pleading – oh, Russia got into China 40 years after other European powers…rubbish – Russia annexed NE Manchuria 15 years after the Brits took Hong Kong and before the French, Japanese and Germans got involved at all. Russia were absolutely the early adopters of Europe’s “lets carve up China” vibe.
3. Russia isn’t expansionist because they were stopped expanding before everyone else did. He repeatedly emphasises “since 1815 in Europe” (like almost everyone else *in Europe*). He claims the annexation of what are now the central Asian republics was complete before the “Grab for Africa” (sic) “got started”. Simply incorrect. The Russian Empire’s colonialism in central Asia was effectively completed in 1885. The “Scramble for Africa” was de jure completed at Berlin in 1885 – the same year! All that was left after Berlin was for imperial powers to secure control of the territories allocated in Berlin, which – shockingly – was the same task left to Russia: to secure control of their central Asian territories annexed in the 1840s to 1885.
4. Russia isn’t expansionist because some of their late-stage expansion failed. Let’s just forget about attempted subversion in Tibet in the 1890’s (failed). Russia’s war aims in WW1 to annex parts of Turkiye including Constantinople (failed). The USSR’s invasion of Xinjiang in 1934 (partially failed). The USSR’s conquest of the Baltic states, which didn’t completely “take”. The USSR taking Eastern Poland, that was an adjustment (or something), not expansion.
So, having used a lot of selective reading, cherry-picking, sophistry and special pleading about Russian history to conclude that Russia has no expansionist aims in 1998, he goes on to conclude it would have been better if Eastern Europe countries had jumped back into bed with them after 1991 instead of getting new friends. What an absurd proposition. I mean, it would have been better for Russia, and their hopes and fears, but for those countries themselves?
That this guff was republished without comment in 2008 – after Putin had given numerous examples for why alternatives to NATO’s fictitious Drang nach Osten were likely to be terrible for anyone silly enough to take that option (I’m looking at you, Belarus) – is almost comical.
Perhaps strangest of all about both of these… The alternatives proposed may have mitigated the problems the authors identify with the increase in NATO membership. But I presume they are written from an American perspective and the solutions proposed would most certainly *not* have served American interests, over any foreseeable time horizon. What actually happened, despite the negative outcomes they discuss, was better for the US, and probably better for Europe.
If you got this far, well done. I know, tl;dr…
New thread.
catching up on bludger and I came across this bit of ahistorical shitfuckery from nath. Not the first time, and he needs to be called out for spreading bullshit:
“ nath says:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 8:02 pm
Kirsdarkesays:
I imagine it would have been very hard for Penny Wong to toe the party line about gay marriage, but she persevered and we got there in the end when the time was right
_________________
When the time was right? You mean when virtually everybody else supported it and then the ALP came on board.”
=========
By all means criticise Wong for being political between 2004 (I think that was the year when Howard put the amendment to the marriage act to parliament to ‘clarify’ that marriage was a union between men and women) and the same sex marriage debate was raging through the ALP at a time when progressives didn’t have the numbers AND 2013 (during which time same sex marriage was not ALP policy) but that all changed in June 2013 when KRudd won back the leadership. He took same sex marriage to the 2013 as a Labor policy, subject only to a conscious vote in the parliament. Wong was publicly on board THEN. It is clear from that point onwards that a free vote on same sex marriage would have passed both houses, and largely because Labor had changed its own policy.
Neither Labor, nor Wong personally were the ‘last on board’ with SSM. The plebiscite fudge was orchestrated four years later by Turnbull-Dutton to prevent the LNP tearing itself apart on the issue. THEY were the last on board, and even then in the most parsimonious fashion. Labor and Wong were four years ahead of the game.