Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Instead of an article about an international election, this article covers polls in eight countries. In the UK, the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has the far-right Reform leading with 27.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 20.0%, Labour at 18.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 14.1% and the Greens at 13.9%.
Labour’s long slide since winning the 2024 election has continued as they’ve fallen into third place, while the Conservatives have recently regained ground from Reform. The Greens have been rising since early September.
With the UK’s first past the post system, Reform would win a narrow majority at an election held now, with 330 of the 650 House of Commons seats. Labour would win just 82 seats, the Lib Dems 77, the Conservatives 55, the Scottish National Party 46 and the Greens 26.
All recent polls have PM Keir Starmer’s net approval below -40, with a YouGov poll giving him his worst score at -61 (76% negative, 15% positive). While Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s net approvals are both in double digit negative territory, they are much better than Starmer’s.
Polls in major western European countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain)
Since the February German election, the far-right AfD has continued to rise, and is now just ahead or tied with the conservative CDU/CSU in recent polls. At the election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%. There has been no recovery in the combined vote for the three main left-wing parties: the centre-left SPD, Greens and Left, with these parties polling 35-37% combined (36.8% combined at the election).
The next French presidential election will be held in April 2027 using a two-round system. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run owing to term limits. The far-right National Rally’s Marine le Pen was disqualified by a court decision, but substitute Jordan Bardella is in the mid-30s for the first round, far ahead of any other candidate. Bardella’s most likely runoff opponent is Édouard Philippe, Macron’s PM from 2017-20. Polls suggest a rough tie in this runoff scenario.
The next Italian election is due by December 2027, with 37% elected by FPTP and the rest by proportional representation. Polls have the right-wing alliance (PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy, the far-right League and the conservative Forza Italia) leading the left-wing alliance (the centre-left Democrats, left-wing Five Stars and the Greens) by high 40s to low 40s. The overall support for right and left parties hasn’t changed much since the 2022 election.
The next Spanish election is due by August 2027, using multi-member PR to elect the lower house. The centre-left Socialists have governed since 2018, but most polls have the conservative People’s and far-right Vox combined winning over 50%, and they will easily win a combined majority of lower house seats on these vote shares. There’s been a continued rise in Vox’s vote since the 2023 election.
Polls in countries with 2026 elections (Brazil, New Zealand and Israel)
Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Brazil in October, with the president elected using a two-round system. Centre-left incumbent Lula is far ahead in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (now in jail), his most likely runoff opponent. Most polls have Lula beating Bolsonaro Jr in the runoff, with a closer hypothetical race against the conservative Tarcísio de Freitas.
The New Zealand election is due by next December, with parties either needing at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to be allocated a proportional share of seats. Polls have the three right-wing parties combined (National, ACT and NZ First) narrowly leading the three left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Maori). The gap between the blocs closed in early 2025, but has widened again recently.
The Israeli election is due by October using national PR with a 3.25% threshold. In most polls, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, well below the 61 needed for a majority. However, the opposition bloc also doesn’t have a majority, with unaligned parties (mainly Arab) having the remaining seats. The Netanyahu-aligned Filber and Direct Polls have a right-wing majority.
The three main European Countries, all appear to be in a significant polling crisis, as pointed out fairly regularly by some observers on the main thread, over the past few months.
These three countries also make up the so called, Coalition of the Willing, with their current leaders being big supporters of Ukraine.
Starmer still has 3 yrs and 8 months to go before his next election {that is if he isn’t tipped out internally}. Merz’s polling appears to be in freefall, but he also has 3 years before his next election. Macron’s polling is terminal. {He remains in power until around Apr-2027}.
The right wing party in Italy seems to not be taking a hit despite governing, and “Vox” in Spain is now back.
Someone on the main thread mentioned that the “right” seem to be on the rise around the world.
It can’t be the media pushing this alone – got to be something else pushing voters to the right.
nadia @ #1 Saturday, December 27th, 2025 – 6:10 pm
I’ve heard it said that it’s mainly because the centrist governments that actually do win aren’t really allowed by the powers that be to do anything to fix problems other than incremental change.
There’s a lot of problems going on at the moment and people aren’t swayed by little “We spent the past few years carefully shuffling around taxes and spending so that everyone gets 1% more money” gestures, they want actual, meaningful change, and they’ll get change alright from the Slopulists. Not that it’s anything good, but it often is a case of “the grass is always greener on the other side”.
So far Australia and Canada have been able to resist this, probably because we’ve already suffered Abbott and they suffered Harper, and also probably because so far Albo and Carney have been performing well, but neither should get complacent.
I know Kirsdarke. It’s a brutal political landscape, and I think it’s entered Australia too this month.
Visceral, tear you down, style of politics.
I didn’t really follow the U.K. polls until a couple of you started pointing out some figures about 6 months ago. I’ve never seen such a collapse in the vote for a gov’t, which was only elected last year.
Anyway, we’ll see what 2026 brings.
Starmer really dropped the ball early on. In mid-2024, people voted out the Tories because everyone was sick of them and just wanted something new. They gave Labour a wide-but-shallow majority and they completely fumbled because I doubt anyone voted for them for a policy on cutting pensioner fuel allowances.
They have been completely on the back foot ever since and have done little to repair that. Yes, most of the media over there is openly hostile to them, well, same story here and Albo still won. Over there they just seem completely incapable of getting their message across and are being tossed around by scandal after scandal.
Angela Rayner resigning for underpaying tax on her property (very bad look for a Housing Secretary), David Lammy coming up with batshit insane ideas like abolishing trials by jury, trying to appeal to Reform voters with cruel immigration laws that just won’t work because they want the full Farage, not a half-arsed imitation, and in doing so alienating their own voters who are splitting to the Greens.
The only thing that seems to have gone right for them is that Corbyn’s attempt of splitting the party further blew up in his face because he is that bad at politics. The only way he’d win any political power is with 10,000 Soviet Tanks backing him up like a Warsaw Pact dictator. Well, it’s not the 1980’s anymore, and Putin’s more interested in helping Farage than him, and even if he was, those tanks appear to be held up in Ukraine.
Another observation I’ve heard said is that children appear to be a rare appearance outside of London in the UK. Everywhere else appears to be a grey wasteland.
That doesn’t appear to be the case here in Australia. Now that it’s the Summer holidays here I’ve been quite astonished with just how many children are around, even in Ballarat which isn’t even one of the big cities like Sydney and Melbourne.
Over there though, prams and kids are a rare sight these days. Most gatherings of people look like the cast of Last of a Summer Wine. Only their version of doing silly things like pushing bathtubs down hills, instead they vote for Brexit and Reform.
I agree fully with you. The “cutting the winter fuel rebate” attacked people who voted for him.
It’s like slapping someone who does a nice turn for you, yet he seems to look around bewildered with that look on his face “what’s wrong with you people?”.
I’ll add a few other odd things which have occurred;
* Raynor at least resigned for allegedly minimising taxes. When Reeves was exposed for avoiding taxes with her rental, she simply brushed it off as an error, despite emails between her and the rental agency suggesting she knew otherwise.
* This “push” to get the U.K. back into the E.U. via the backdoor, will backfire politically,
* the nonsense where he said he and his family enjoyed “what’s app” time together. Fake & weird. I think his son is 17. Everyone sitting around the loungeroom on “what’s app” exchanging messages. WTF
* Seeking advice from Merz & Macron about his dire polling situation! What would be the point asking these two for advice?
Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15356055/Keir-Starmer-reveals-hes-enlisted-help-German-French-leaders-beat-Nigel-Farages-Reform-UK.html
* Today he’s launched an attack on some British tradition of fox hunting. Surely a PM has better things to do. What next – a deep dive into cat registration’s in Cornwall?
* I see now there are whispers about adjourning council elections next year. {Code speak: he’s frightened of the electorate}.
Anyway, we’ll see what 2026 brings. Thanks for updates on the U.K. situation from time to time.
I’ll just clarify that Merz/Macron comment I made, and say it would be better for Sir Keir to get some advice on “how to defeat the populist right” off the campaign manager for either Albo or Carney.
Also Merz might not be as secure as it seems. His “Grand Coalition” government only holds a majority of 328/630 seats (316 needed for a majority), and if the SPD decide to drop their backing and force an early election, then it seems likely the AfD will be the biggest party, and a government cannot be formed without them.
If Merz gets too extreme for the SPD and they decide to pull the plug and be like “So be it”, that could be a possibility.
This is the latest I can find for Merz.
Approval 22%, disapproval 76%.
ie: Net/sat = minus 54
Link: https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/278735758/merz-approval-rating-hits-record-low
I don’t follow the German media, so I don’t know whether their media is doing the “tear them to shreds” routine. I’ve watched the Keir Starmer freefall since roughly mid year when you or someone else first dropped a poll showing U.K. Labour at “sub 20”.
Per France polling, it started to fall off a cliff for Macron with the yellow vests thing and then later raising the retirement age.
The German thing is fascinating, because the current gov’t is propped up by an alliance of CDU/CSU/SPD/Greens.
The equivalent in Oz would be, roughly, the Libs/Nats/Greens & Labor versus One Nation
It’s quite concerning what’s going on in Europe atm.
@nadia
Here’s a summary of what’s ahead in German politics in 2026.
https://www.thelocal.de/20251223/elections-and-reforms-what-can-be-expected-in-german-politics-in-2026
Starmer made the mistake of listening to his Treasury.
I don’t know why they have not got rid of him yet – maybe none of the alternatives want to keep collecting bad news and are waiting for a better opportunity.
Centrism is always a mistake. An open door for the extreme right to walk straight through.
Nobody on the right actually votes for centrists and its only left wingers who are threatened and browbeaten into voting for them.
Kirsdarke, it’s paywalled, so couldn’t read it.
I found this article though (not paywalled). I’ll keep an eye out on Germany next year.
Link: https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/leader-to-watch-in-2026-friedrich-merz-226485
I’m guessing if the “traffic light coalition” breaks down, they could be heading to an early election.
Corleone, I think the process of replacing a U.K. Labour leader is quite complicated, unless of course he resigns and there is only one candidate in the running.
A petition has to be circulated first of (I believe 20% of current Parliamentarians), and then a later vote of the general membership a couple of weeks later.
It’s not a “clean cut” process. Quite messy in fact.
nadia @ #12 Saturday, December 27th, 2025 – 10:44 pm
Oh, okay, sorry about that.
Summary:
– 5 German state elections due. Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in March, Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt in September. The AfD look like they’ll make major gains in all of them except Berlin.
– 49% of voters believe the CDU/SPD Grand Coalition will collapse, while only about 33% believe the Grand Coalition will hold out until 2029.
– The “Grand Coalition” is set to make major reforms to unemployment benefits, which basically seem set on crushing those worst off.
thanks Nadia, it does sound complicated and he would basically have to resign if the letters were even issued, let alone the membership involved. And that in turn would need a replacement, Burnham if he was ready but he would have to sit outside Parliament until a seat could be arranged. And presumably 2 byelections as Starmer won’t be hanging around.
No need to be sorry. Blasted paywalls???
Thanks for article though.
Per – The “Grand Coalition” is set to make major reforms to unemployment benefits, which basically seem set on crushing those worst off.
This sounds like what Starmer did in the U.K. with the winter fuel rebate adjustment.
ie: Attacking the voters who voted for you in the first place.
I’m guessing they are that aloof that they think it’s ok to take voters for granted.
I don’t get it.
nadia @ #16 Saturday, December 27th, 2025 – 11:00 pm
From what I gather, there’s a large swing among young Germans, especially women from the SPD to The Left that’s been somewhat hidden by all this AfD crap.
I’ll refer to this exit poll taken at the election earlier this year of 18-24 year-olds.
And of course if there’s something we know about the German SPD, they would rather fight their opponents on the left moreso than they would on the right.
Corleone says:
Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 10:59 pm
thanks Nadia, it does sound complicated and he would basically have to resign if the letters were even issued, let alone the membership involved. And that in turn would need a replacement, Burnham if he was ready but he would have to sit outside Parliament until a seat could be arranged. And presumably 2 byelections as Starmer won’t be hanging around.
==============
It’s a very messy process Corleone. If Raynor rises up again, her enemies will hurl the corruption tag her way. And yes, Burnham isn’t even in Westminster.
The Deputy Prime Minister is officially David Lammy, and the Deputy Labour Leader is another person called Lucy Powell (who replaced Raynor in Sep/Oct). Having the Deputy PM and Deputy Leader as two different people is also another part of the “mess”.
Although there is now talk about adjourning most of the council elections next May, I suspect that they’ll probably go ahead, and Labour will lose upwards of 800+ council divisions. Burnham will probably be back in Westminster by then, and that may be the time to “force a change”.
If you’re interested, here’s a list of the changing council seats in the U.K. since 1/7/2025.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/174682/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2025-2026/
The upshot:
* Reform have picked up (a net) 61 seats
* Labour have lost 45 seats
* Tories have lost 25 seats
* Lib Dems have picked up 19 seats
* Greens have picked up 2 seats
Labour, and quite frankly the Tories too, are heading to a flogging next May (if they hold elections)
Kirsdarke, those figures for 18-24 years olds suggest that U.S. style political polarisation is about to hit Germany in a few years time.
The current centre left and centre right parties simply don’t “connect” with younger voters any more.
Combined the {centre left & right} represent about 30% of voters in that age group.
{In Oz it’s still around 60%}
nadia @ #19 Saturday, December 27th, 2025 – 11:22 pm
Yeah true. The UK, France and Germany really do seem to be pensioner states like that, where the boomers are like “I think young people should eat dirt and drink mud” and the young are like “The future is now, old man, I’ll crush everything you hold dear.”
Meanwhile the billionaires just keep on making that K-shaped economy get bigger.
I have suspected for some time that the whole Your Party ploy was an attempt by Corbyn to be invited back to the Labour party. Whomever replaces Starmer has a free win by offering him his membership and winning back some alienated voters.
Bean @ #21 Sunday, December 28th, 2025 – 12:05 am
Honestly I think Corbyn’s “Your Party” shenanigans has backfired on him so much that he’s about as popular as George Galloway these days.
He had the simple task of launching the party a few months ago and he couldn’t even do that without his deputy leader boycotting it.
And all he ever does is make a condescending sigh in how most people just don’t understand his brand of 1980’s Labour Footism (that’s the similarly unpopular Labour leader Michael Foot, not the fetish).
Yep, its been really quite pathetic how quickly and fundamentally stupid they way they screwed up. Zarah seems to be the one actually motivated to make things happen but Corbyns handlers have other thoughts about her being pro-trans and pro-housing reform.
Also on the trail hunting ban I’m with Starmer on this one, they do often cause havoc and deaths to livestock as dogs frequently trespass on properties and can cause livestock to die from stress.
Its a small drop in the pond to the issues actually facing rural communities, and if anything only shows that they are really feeling threatened by the left now.
I believe Aus and Canada haven’t fallen to the right yet because both countries have high proportions of people living in cities. Cities are where far-right parties perform worse.
For all the derision of Corbyn’s Your Party here, he came much closer than anyone expected to winning the UK 2017 election.
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/2004960862726222022?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Latest Find Out Now UK poll.
Thanks Adrian.
Yes, Corbyn did come close in the 2017 election, when he was Labour leader.
With “Your Party”, I think it’s become a circus. The Deputy Leader boycotted the first party conference. Other party members were expelled on the day, and several members were refused entry to the venue. When the MC/Speaker was on the stage, some remaining party members starting booing.
Links:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/25661410.went-partys-debut-conference-happened/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx2zjd8qvo
Hey nadia, can you expand a bit more on the EU “back-door” point you made? Haven’t heard about this and interested to learn more
Yes, Corbyn did well in 2017, although a lot of that is down to how dreadful Theresa May was. But it just wasn’t enough, just like how things were for Labour in the 1992 election.
Instead of learning the right lessons from it, Corbyn and company smugly wore their loss as a badge of honour and frolicked to a crushing defeat in 2019, paving the way for Bozza and friends to utterly cripple the nation, probably beyond repair.
Hey aggmagpie,
Per the “EU backdoor” comment,
Sir Keir has made some recent comments about brexit being to blame for the state of the U.K. economy.
Link: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/10/24/starmers-new-brexit-line-its-a-disaster-and-farage-is-to-blame/
& here,
Link: https://bmmagazine.co.uk/in-business/starmer-eu-electricity-market-net-zero-targets/
His Ministers are following the same line, especially Lammy.
Recently a Trades Hall official came out and demanded a return to the customs union.
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/27/paul-nowak-tuc-labour-forge-closer-relationship-europe
Starmer was a remainer, and never supported Brexit. His “heart” is to be with the EU.
Recently the U.K. gov’t has re-aligned with the EU on fishing rights, basically allowing EU fishermen to access UK waters for a further 12 years.
The Erasmus education scheme will be re-establised in 2027. This allows students to study anywhere within the EU. Without knowing the full arrangements, I suspect this study scheme also allowed students to enter the UK to study, and then not go home. (ie: backdoor immigration)
No doubt Reform & the Tories will use this to stir up the populace again, so it seems silly of Starmer to leave himself open like this. (ie: the voters who would support the Erasmus scheme, probably vote Labor anyway……..so no extra votes for him in doing this).
My personal opinion is that I don’t think he is a very savvy politician.
Keir looks like the seat warmer that they put in place post Corbyn, not thinking he or anyone would be competitive let alone win resoundingly at the very next election.
An easy mistake to make, but the party should have anticipated this possibility.
I don’t get this whole idea of the population wanting ‘stability’ – Tories managed Cameron through to Sunak and for all the mocking of their turnover, especially Truss, that doesn’t seem to actually harm them. It was Truss who sank them mind you, but not because of the duration of her stay, but because of what she did.
So if Labour need to make some timely adjustments to their leadership, find a beautiful place like the Turks and Caicos for Sir Keir, they should go right ahead. There is no shame in changing leaders, ask the Tories.
”
nadiasays:
Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 6:10 pm
The three main European Countries, all appear to be in a significant polling crisis, as pointed out fairly regularly by some observers on the main thread, over the past few months.
These three countries also make up the so called, Coalition of the Willing, with their current leaders being big supporters of Ukraine.
Starmer still has 3 yrs and 8 months to go before his next election {that is if he isn’t tipped out internally}. Merz’s polling appears to be in freefall, but he also has 3 years before his next election. Macron’s polling is terminal. {He remains in power until around Apr-2027}.
The right wing party in Italy seems to not be taking a hit despite governing, and “Vox” in Spain is now back.
Someone on the main thread mentioned that the “right” seem to be on the rise around the world.
It can’t be the media pushing this alone – got to be something else pushing voters to the right.
”
nadia
I have no issue if centre right and right wing party gain ground in polls. In each and every European country AB mentioned, it is the far-right that is gaining ground. That should be more concerning to political establishment in these countries.
If far-right wins next election in the above countries, the first casualty will be Ukraine. Not only that Trump will still be in power except for British election.
True enough Adrian, he was a massive vote puller. Even the Your Party pre-registration (which went up against his will) had something like 400,000 sign up in the first few days.
If they could have figured out a payment system instead of having two different ones and the he-said she-said they would be bigger than at least the Tories and Regorm in terms of membership, maybe within reach of Labour too. It’s honestly made me a fair bit bitter as somebody who was a true believer in Corbyn that this is how it’s played out. He was the most voted for Labour leader in the last 3 decades I believe, and I think if he ran for Labour even today he could possibly pull off a miracle minority win.
And yet Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings as of the latest YouGov poll held on 14-15 December was 21% Approval and 65% Disapproval for a net approval of -44%. Almost as bad as Starmer’s ratings.
Honestly I think at this point that Corbyn should just bow out and retire. Owen Jones can pick up the flame and go way further than he could.
Owen has a fire in his belly and could actually build up a movement like Corbyn no longer can do, he has the power of youth on his side.
The dominant political theme of the moment throughout the West is a massive push back against immigration, and dare we say it, specifically immigration from Islamic nations. The Resolve polling today shows it applies equally to Australia as Britain, France and Germany.
Honestly I think at this point that Corbyn should just bow out and retire. Owen Jones can pick up the flame and go way further than he could
++++++
Agree, he is an 80s dinosaur. Grew up with cold war missile protests.
Could have been the Elder Statesman rather than the pathetic independent member for Islington and failed comeback kid.
He could have traded off his knowledge of opposition leader job and having got labour to a few seats of Victory at an unexpected time.
The Wombat @ #35 Monday, December 29th, 2025 – 9:54 am
So what is to be done about it then?
Nadia,
If you open a new private window in Firefox, and go to https://www.printfriendly.com/
and then paste the link supplied above by Kirsdarke into it ( https://www.thelocal.de/20251223/elections-and-reforms-what-can-be-expected-in-german-politics-in-2026 ) you should be able to read that article (at least it worked for me).
Thanks Fargo61. Worked.
I don’t think Keir Starmer will survive this Egyptian dissident issue (Alaa Abd el-Fattah), which has blown up in the U.K.
Link: https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/starmer-alaa-abd-el-fattah-tweets-citizenship-5HjdPxM_2/
To quote from the article…
“Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced criticism after celebrating Mr Abd El-Fattah’s return to the UK on Boxing Day after posts emerged in which the activist appears to call for violence towards Zionists and the police.”
It sounds like Starmer’s office does not have mature advisors who screen issues before the PM opens his mouth. I think he’s walked into an almost irreversible bloopah on 26-Dec.
It follows on with his aloof pattern of governing.
I think it might be over for him well before the May 2026 council elections.
nadia @ #40 Monday, December 29th, 2025 – 6:40 pm
Yeah, probably.
Just think of what the 200 new Labour MP’s that were elected in the 2024 election are thinking right now. Most of them starting off with a noble goal of cleaning up the damage of 14 years of Tory austerity plus Covid.
But all they’re doing is this, watching their leader fumble and slip around to the tune of the Benny Hill Yakety Sax theme and expect to be loyal to him while the polls say that over 300 of them will lose their seats in parliament.
Something has got to give and it will, soon.
Yes I agree Kirsdarke. I don’t think this clown show can go on for much longer.
Clearly elements in the media and the Tories have held onto former social media posts from this Alaa Abd el-Fattah character. His media posts are full of, “anti Jewish, anti police & anti U.K. rhetoric”.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4_GUSl79GQ
I’m just surprised that Sir Keir’s staffers weren’t also aware. If they were, perhaps they could’ve provided advice to him along the lines of … “this person’s return to the U.K. is not quite worth celebrating, so keep away from him.”
I think Sir Keir might have a problem with his circle of advisors.
Talk about ending up with “egg on your face”, at the end of a train wreck of a year for him.
I think Sir Keir might have a problem with his circle of advisors.
Talk about ending up with “egg on your face”, at the end of a train wreck of a year for him.
Some of the blogs and vlogs I follow on UK politics make this point – they think Starmer gets very bad advice, and number 10 has hundreds of insiders who are there to shape image, opinion and policy and do a very poor job of it.
That is, unless, he is not listening to them, but I suspect he is. He certainly comes across as a man with no political instincts.
Thank nadia. I looked into the links you provided and the somewhat sudden change of line is interesting. I would have to agree Sir Keir (and his office by extension) doesn’t seem very savvy! Especially with the new story you have linked to, it may well be over for him very soon.
I’ve heard Andy Burnham’s name mentioned as a potential replacement quite often. Does anyone know the precedent for a Prime Minister sitting outside of parliament? I would imagine it’s not possible. Do people expect him to enter parliament via a by election sometime soon? Rayner seems tainted by her recent resignation controversy.
There is supposed to be a Manchester seat he could take. I don’t know the local politics of whether he can and whether Labour HQ might try to block it.
I guess the Deputy who is IN parliament would do the job if the Party membership/conference was working on getting him in.
Corleone @ #43 Monday, December 29th, 2025 – 9:33 pm
Well, Kamala Harris’s consultants need to keep their 6-figure salaries somehow, maybe this is their work this year?
Corleone,
There was talk about this member giving up his seat, about a month ago.
Seems to have quietened down though.
Link: https://www.ft.com/content/e1611d95-f8dd-4b72-91fe-1f71f40aa2a5
This is an example of some of the distorted “reporting” of opinion polls, which comes out of the UK.
This report on Scotland polling intention is headlined “Bombshell : Labour wipeout”.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERv72F8wKcA
When you look at the MRP they project at roughly the 12 second mark of this GB News video, you see the following seat projections for the next Scots Parliament:
* SNP 62 seats (-2 seats)
* REF 23 (+23)
* GRN 14 (+6)
* LAB 13 (-9)
* TOR 9 (-22)
* LDEM 8 (+4)
Obviously Labour is set to lose seats in the new Scottish Parliament, but it’s actually the Tories facing the “wipeout”.
@ aggmagpie
“Does anyone know the precedent for a Prime Minister sitting outside of parliament? “
Yes – Carney in Canada became PM without being an MP. But Parliament had been prorogued by Trudeau so wasn’t sitting and an election was called soon after he became PM.
But as far as the UK is concerned it would be Alec Douglas-Home in 1963 where he was PM but neither a Peer nor an MP for 20 days. (He was PM sat in the Lords for a few days though before resigned to stand in a by-election).
The short period was fortunate due to an already scheduled by-election in a safe Tory seat where closure of nominations hadn’t taken place yet and an already recessed House had its recess extended.
He could have remained in the Lords but felt a PM needed to sit in the Commons.
I don’t think even a short a period as that would be seen as acceptable in the UK these days even if Parliament was in recess.
You can’t have PMQs without a PM! And if the House is in recess or prorogued you can’t pass any legislation to get your agenda passed.
As to an MP standing down to free up a seat for e.g. Burnham these days it’s no guarantee of them being elected even in what might be seen as safe seat.
As to an MP standing down to free up a seat for e.g. Burnham these days it’s no guarantee of them being elected even in what might be seen as safe seat.
True, and he would have to generate his own momentum because I can’t see Labour HQ helping in any way. So an uphill climb. Especially if Reform are motivated to fight hard to stop a turnaround in Labour’s fortunes. That said, Reform overcooked the recent Welsh byelection and Plaid plus other left parties rallied to stop them.