Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: September to November (open thread)

New polling data zeroes in on One Nation’s gains among older and low-income voters.

Together with test cricket, Boxing Day reliably provides us with the final quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for the year, via The Australian. Combining 3774 responses from the last three polls, conducted between September 29 and November 20, the national-level results tell us nothing we didn’t already know, having Labor with an aggregated lead of 57-43. The most striking findings relate to the changing balance of One Nation and Coalition support by age: whereas no difference was recorded among the 18-to-34 cohort (both up a point), movement was significant for 35-to-49 (One Nation up four, Coalition down one), substantial for 50-to-64 (One Nation up five, Coalition down four) and seismic for 65-plus (One Nation up seven, Coalition down seven). The effect is still more pronounced on Sussan Ley’s personal ratings, which were effectively unchanged among 18-to-34s but deteriorated in net terms by minus 26 among 50-to-64 and minus 27 among 65-plus.

Breakdowns by income hint at the possibility of a more complex picture than an exodus from the Coalition to One Nation. The latter’s gains are predictably concentrated among the less affluent, by six points among both the less-than-$50,000 and $50,000-to-$100,000 brackets, and in the former case the loss is borne more by Labor (down four) than the Coalition (down one). This is balanced for Labor by a gain among the $100,000-to-$150,000 bracket, up three points on the primary vote with a two-party lead widening from 57-43 to 60-40.

At state level, Labor’s two-party lead narrowed in New South Wales, from 60-40 to 58-42, but widened elsewhere: from 58-42 to 60-40 in Victoria, 51-49 to 52-48 in Queensland, 54-46 to 56-44 in Western Australia, and 55-45 to 58-42 in South Australia. One Nation were up eight points in Queensland to 18% (where the Coalition was down six to 27%) and by three or four points elsewhere.

Also:

• Nine Newspapers reports further results from the Resolve Strategic poll finding more than 70% in favour of toughening hate speech laws, banning extremist Islamist organisations and imposing tougher immigration screening to deal with anti-Semitic or extremist views. Fifty-three per cent favour a “ban on pro-Palestine marches”, with only 16% opposed and the remainder neutral or unsure, and 48% support a Royal Commission into anti-Semitism, with 17% opposed.

• Nicholas Biddle of the Australian National University reports the university’s occasional ANUpoll survey happened to be gathering data on political attitudes and satisfaction with democracy and life from December 9 to 22, a period encompassing the Bondi shootings on December 14. The sample of 3564 included 538 who returned their responses up to the evening of the shootings. With exacting standards applied, Biddle observes statistically significant drops in confidence in the federal government and satisfaction in the direction of the country from the first period to the second. A fall in Anthony Albanese’s personal rating just clears the 95% confidence threshold (with the damage seemingly concentrated from December 18 to 22, when around 900 surveys were completed), while an otherwise similar result for Sussan Ley doesn’t quite get there. Perceived fairness and helpfulness of others was up in the post-Bondi sample, and life satisfaction barely changed.

• In the first piece of preselection news I’m aware of concerning the next election, the Australian Capital Territory Liberals last month chose their lead Senate candidate. The Canberra Times reports the party ballot was won by Nick Tyrrell ahead of Hayune Lee, data architect at Services Australia, by 143 votes to 34. Tyrrell is the party’s territory branch president, a former staffer to Barry O’Farrell, Pru Goward and Gladys Berejiklian and “founder of electric picnic boat hire firm GoBoat”. The Canberra Times further reported last week that a Liberal internal poll had Tyrrell on 21.54% (compared with 17.76% for the Liberals at the May election), with David Pocock on 34.67% (39.16%), Labor’s Katy Gallagher on 23.12% (31.74%), the Greens on 8.25% (7.78%) and others 12.45%. The poll was conducted November 26 to 28, with no sample size provided.

• Former Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel and former South Australian Senator Rex Patrick have launched a High Court challenge against campaign finance reforms that will take effect in the middle of next year. At issue are three features said to advantage major parties at the expense of independents: distinct caps for general party and candidate-specific spending, of which only the latter is of use to independents; the capacity of nationally organised parties to receive donations up to the $50,000 cap in each of their state and territory branches; and a new measure prohibiting donors from contributing to more than five candidates per state or territory. As ever, the plaintiffs hope the court will deem the measures inconsistent with an implied constitutional right to freedom of political communication.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,170 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: September to November (open thread)”

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  1. SMH and The Age put out the “junior” staff to do the work while the “big guns” behind it sip cocktails on the harbour foreshore. The main downside of subsubscribing is even more Domain / house prices articles.

  2. If you look at the top Sky News videos they are all about overseas issues, US politics and something called ‘lefties losing it’ which seems pretty popular.

    I don’t think anything relating to Australian politics makes it into the top few hundred of their most watched vids.

  3. ”
    Player Onesays:
    Monday, December 29, 2025 at 9:20 pm
    For the first – and perhaps only – time in his career, Albo will be on the right side of history by doing … absolutely nothing.

    He is entitled to revel in it.
    ”

    A reluctant praise
    A backhander
    Damning with faint praise

  4. Ante Meridian says:
    Tuesday, December 30, 2025 at 12:12 am
    nadia,

    There you go again, confusing the argument with facty kind of things. Tsk, tsk, tsk.

    And you really should have a capital letter to start your name.
    =======
    “nath” doesn’t use a capital “N” for his name. I gather it’s nathan.

  5. subgeometersays:
    Tuesday, December 30, 2025 at 12:21 am
    How many of those 6 million SAD subscribers are in Australia though?
    ____________
    It’s been reported that up to 30% of its subscribers are from the US, but I suspect it’s far higher than that.

  6. nadia,

    Yes, but I hold you to higher standards. Obviously.

    And while I have your attention, what’s your position on the Oxford Comma?

  7. Ante Meridiansays:
    Tuesday, December 30, 2025 at 12:34 am
    nadia,

    Yes, but I hold you to higher standards. Obviously.
    ___________
    You’ve just made a powerful enemy pal.

  8. nath says:
    Tuesday, December 30, 2025 at 12:26 am
    If you look at the top Sky News videos they are all about overseas issues, US politics and something called ‘lefties losing it’ which seems pretty popular.

    I don’t think anything relating to Australian politics makes it into the top few hundred of their most watched vids.
    ===========
    Don’t know nath. The skynews “Albanese finished” news feed is sitting at 728k views. High rotation I’m afraid. Forget about the “hate” on the front pages of the SMH/Oz/Age/Guardian/Daily Tele/ABC Sydney. This one outrates the rest – Supreme Llama hate.

    Here’s the link to the “skynews youtube” site, if anyone dares.
    Link: https://www.youtube.com/user/SkyNewsAustralia

  13. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, December 30, 2025 at 12:20 am

    …………….This isn’t specific to Australia: right-wing British newspapers are increasingly gearing towards feeding culture war content to a US audience, much of it propagandising for the viewpoint that Europe is lost to western civilisation and (at least implicitly) that Americans should take a more favourable view of Russia.
    ==============
    Another “culture war outbreak” has occurred in the U.K. with Sir Keir currently going through a “culture war work out” with an Egyptian/UK citizen – Alaa Abd El-Fattah.
    Sir Keir is “delighted” that this person has returned to the U.K.
    Disaster looms.

  15. nath,

    Little do you know.

    Only three more years. Three years without a Carlton flag. Until the premiership drought of the glorious Magpies is exceeded. I can’t wait to stick it up ’em.


  20. Victoria says:
    Monday, December 29, 2025 at 1:08 pm

    Boerwar

    I’m thinking Minns strategy of being a yes person for the Jewish lobby, takes the pressure off him and scrutiny of his govt and police force.

    Victoria, I think it would be better if they were called the Likud lobby. Not all Jews are responsible for the complete mess they have made of Israel.

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