Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

The first post-Bondi poll suggests real but limited damage for Labor on voting intention, and a solid hit to Anthony Albanese on personal approval.

Nine Newspapers has results from what it is calling a “special” Resolve Strategic poll, presumably because it was commissioned specifically to gauge reaction to the Bondi shootings, conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1010. It is thus not part of the pollster’s normal monthly series, which typically targets 1600 respondents and presumably produced its final result for the year a fortnight ago. The field work period for that poll was from December 3 – the date first reports appeared that Communications Minister Annika Wells had spent nearly $100,000 on air fares to New York for herself and two staffers, thus initiating a period of bad publicity for the government concerning travel expenses – to December 7.

The latest poll finds only a modest decline in support for Labor on two-party preferred, their lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. However, Labor is down three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up two to 28%, with the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up two to 16%. Anthony Albanese takes a substantial hit on his personal ratings, his combined very good and good rating down eight to 40% and poor plus very poor up six to 49%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 41-26 to 38-30. Sussan Ley’s personal ratings have also weakened, down three on very good plus good to 36% and up three on poor plus very poor to 40%.

Despite everything, 37% rate social cohesion in Australia as very good or good, compared with 30% for poor or very poor, with the balance undecided. Twenty-nine per cent rate the government’s response to the attacks as strong and 46% as weak, and 72% agree that there has been “a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia, including as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict”, with only 9% disagreement. A further question, whose utility I have my doubts about, finds 55% rating that there has been more anti-Semitism than Islamophobia in recent months, compared with 13% vice-versa and 32% for unsure or both equally.

UPDATE: Further results have been published by Nine Newspapers today, including a finding that 76% want tougher gun laws, compared with only 6% for relaxing them and 10% for keeping them as they are. Respondents were given a list of nine “priorities for government” and asked to pick the two most important, with those at the law enforcement end of the equation (49% for preventing terrorist attacks, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns) favoured over more abstract concerns (33% preventing radicalisation, 29% tackling anti-Semitism and 26% tackling hate speech).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,498 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. The Swastika existed long before the Nazis co-opted it as a symbol for their genocidal hatred. You see them all the time in Vietnam, typically on old buildings and temples.

    I think most of us should be capable of discerning the difference between neo-nazis using swastikas as a hate symbol and its use as religious and cultural icons by societies that predate Nazi Germany by centuries.

  2. nadia

    The complainant said they were offended by it. WCH apologised and removed it. The media heard and rang the Health Minister and he made WCH put it back up.

    I’m not sure if the offence was the Christian symbolism or the disposable urinal. This is where we have ended up as a society.

    Someone wrote into the paper saying he was offended they removed it so did they mean they had to put it back up again?

  3. I take a pretty dim view of organised religion in all its myriad forms, but I certainly can’t see any reason to be banning the display of crosses.

    I suppose there’s an argument for doing away with the gory torture porn ones beloved of the likes of Mel Gibson and Mac from Its Always Sunny.

  4. ‘Socrates says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 7:40 pm

    Newy Boy

    Some happy news from Ukraine. Multiple sourcers are confirming that the Russian forces that “captured’ Kupyansk hace been completely surrounded and destroyed.

    “ OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Multiple Russian milbloggers started to confirm today that Ukrainian forces have mostly recaptured the key northeastern city of Kupyansk.

    Russian milblogger Rybar laments “we defeated ourselves.”
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2004020797640527944
    ==================
    Putin was lying when he claimed Kupyansk was captured.

    The Russians had captured a sliver of Kupyansk and that sliver was at the tip of a long and narrow salient which ran nor nor east to south south west. I seem to recall thinking at the time that Putin’s announcement of the capture of Kupyansk was timed to some negotiating event or other. Ukrainian forces pinched off the salient well over a week ago. The russians thus cut off were doomed to death or capture. There does not seem to have been any real attempt by russia to hold the salient or the Kupyansk sliver.
    One of Russia’s strategies, and its superior numbers enable it to do this, is to constantly switch axes of attack. This forces Ukraine, with its smaller numbers, to shift forces to each new axis of defence. The point? Shifting means soldiers leave heavily fortified positions and move into the open, enabling russian artillery and drones to kill them more easily.
    Apart from the Kupyansk propaganda effort (which, IMO, might have delivered a sugar hit but which eventually backfired) the Russian Kupyansk axis of attack might simply have been part of the ongoing strategy of forcing Ukraine soldiers into the open.
    For those interested in the heavy weapons v drone debate, I saw a figure the other day that artillery is responsible for between two thirds and three quarters of battle casualties.


  5. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 5:43 pm
    Mundo says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 4:27 pm
    TPOF
    The Israeli flag for a start.

    ________________________________________

    How about the Russian flag? The Iranian flag? The flag of the USA? The Union Jack? The Palestinian Flag? There are plenty of people who find them triggering for one reason or another. Why not ban them?
    And, if the Israeli flag is just the start, where would you move to next? Have the Star of David banned – unless it is on a yellow patch?

    Why not Indian flag? Why not ban all foreign flags?

  6. @nadia at 7:42pm

    Thankfully it was a good Christmas lunch today. No politics was mentioned, and although things looked a bit dicey at the start with our elderly relatives realizing they were less capable of creating feasts as before and improvisations had to be made, it was generally pleasant.

    I enjoyed spending time with my sister the most, we watched our classic Christmas shows that we used to watch on VHS as kids and talked about things.

    But still, was somewhat exhausting spending 5 hours in a noisy environment with people who are hard-of-hearing, especially when I haven’t really been blessed with a clear speaking voice so had to repeat almost everything I said, and struggled to say things loudly without sounding rude or patronizing.

    Also realized that my appetite isn’t what it used to be, especially for lunch.

  7. K

    Us olds are feeding 24 tomorrow. We have contingency plans for vittle disasters. In terms of topics of conversation, I am still finding that people I meet are simply not initiating a conversation about the Bondi Terrorist Massacre or any responses to same.

    I suspect the dominant activity tomorrow will be siblings and cuzzes catching up and watching the cricket.

  8. Boerwar @ #1407 Thursday, December 25th, 2025 – 8:08 pm

    K
    Us olds are feeding 24 tomorrow. We have contingency plans for vittle disasters. In terms of topics of conversation, I am still finding that people I meet are simply not initiating a conversation about the Bondi Terrorist Massacre or any responses to same.

    That’s good. I’ve learned from the past few years that usually the best topic to bring up at the dinner table is positive experiences with food, since that’s what everyone is indulging in at that moment.

    The other conversations were pretty much catching-up things like “What’s been going on in the past year?”

    I did not hear Donald Trump, Bondi or Albo mentioned once, which I’m really happy with.

  9. Thanks Diogenes at 7.54pm.

    I would’ve thought people attending a hospital would’ve had other things to worry about rather than a Christmas display at the front entrance, but as you said, this is where we are at in society.

  10. Yeah, no mention of Bondi in the Xmas gathering I have been to either.

    No mention of it at work or from colleagues. No mention of it by my family.

    Yesterday had a BBQ with some friends and one of the friends brought it up but it wasn’t political. He was cracking a joke about a Muslim friend.

    Seen a work colleague circulating Albo should resign petiton on facebook, but also seen people annoyed with people blaming Albo and emphasising unity online.

  11. I find scenes extolling the so-called virtues of a homeless woman giving birth in a stable highly offensive. Meanwhile, the feckless biological father was off somewhere else playing god with the universe.

  12. Sounds like you had nice day Kirsdarke. Yes, politics on Christmas Day especially if some of them have started knocking down a few beers, is best avoided.

  13. Socrates, Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 7:40 pm:

    Newy Boy

    Some happy news from Ukraine. Multiple sourcers are confirming that the Russian forces that “captured’ Kupyansk hace been completely surrounded and destroyed.

    “ OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Multiple Russian milbloggers started to confirm today that Ukrainian forces have mostly recaptured the key northeastern city of Kupyansk.

    Russian milblogger Rybar laments “we defeated ourselves.”
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2004020797640527944

    Socrates, thanks for that update, and I hope Christmas is treating you and your family well.

    Kupiansk was looking grim for Russia at least the last few days, and yesterday ISW had similar reports of Kremlin-aligned milbloggers raising dire warnings of a complete Russian military failure in the making there.
    https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2025/
    Sounds like those warnings have come true. Slava Ukraini!

  14. nadia

    The WCH CEO has also had issues with insisting on not referring to someone who has had a miscarriage as female to avoid offending all the non-females who have had miscarriages.

    You can’t make this stuff up.

  15. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 7:32 pm
    We are definitely into the tolerance of intolerance paradox. Good luck using logic to get out of this.

    ___________

    I like how you popped in a bit of Popper on Christmas Day 🙂

  16. nadia @ #1413 Thursday, December 25th, 2025 – 8:20 pm

    Sounds like you had nice day Kirsdarke. Yes, politics on Christmas Day especially if some of them have started knocking down a few beers, is best avoided.

    Yeah absolutely. At the end my parents were surprised that the champagne bottles they included in the drinks ice bucket were untouched, everyone just had the non-alcoholic drinks.

  17. BW:

    What, you arn’t inspired by the beautiful story of a woman who cheated on her partner and then managed to convince him that her pregnancy was an act of God?

  18. For the record, I think the Albo pile on has been utterly contemptible.
    I just find it incomprehensibly crass and insensitive.
    I really thought Australians were better than this.

  19. North Korea on Thursday released new images of what it claims is its first nuclear-powered submarine, a massive vessel equal in size to some of the United States Navy’s attack subs. The pictures released by state media showed leader Kim Jong Un inspecting the guided-missile submarine at an indoor construction facility, indicating it has not yet been launched.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/24/asia/north-korea-nuclear-powered-submarine-intl-hnk-ml

  20. ‘Asha says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:27 pm

    BW:

    What, you arn’t inspired by the beautiful story of a woman who cheated on her partner and then managed to convince him that her pregnancy was an act of God?’
    ==================
    IMO, that had style far beyond the old cloaca bench explanation.

    No I was outraged at the way in which the patriarchy has, for two thousand years, tried to turn homelessness, abject poverty and a complete failure of social services into something heroic and noble.

    I bet they did not even have such basics as a car, electricity, a washing machine, a fridge, a dish washer, an i-Phone, access to the internet, running hot and cold water or a water closet.

    I would be somewhat mollified if the nativity scenes included droves of rats and myriads of fleas that infested every ancient barnyard and stable.

  21. I support Boerwar with his proposition, as I understand it, that the rushed legislation after Dec 14 is a crock. As anyone familiar with the Askin era knows only too well, when you have a corrupt premier, it’s likely the police commissioner is likewise – no adverse inferences intended, but the new legislation is far too broad; moreover, who knows what his successors will be like? I also endorse his posts about the deaths in custody of First Nations people. The new legislation will, for instance, probably negative protests on Australia Day. And just a mere scan of the instant legislation provides that upon the declaration of a terrorist incident, the Police Commissioner can exercise his/her powers to ban protests for up to 14 days, or in increments of up to three months. While these powers are appealable, whose up to that? I think the HC Court will strike this legislation down based on the implied constitutional right of political communication.

  22. I find some inspiration in the Christmas story still being talked about over 2,000 years after it happened. Gee and we even get holidays and presents.

  23. David:

    I’m all for the presents and the holidays. Less so the nonsense about a woman being knocked up by a magic man who lives in the sky.

    BW:

    You’d think the all-knowing, all-powerful creator of the universe would have been able to provide a more comfortable location for his baby mama to give birth.

  24. Asha that magical man is also alleged to have made a bush burn that didn’t burn, part the Red Sea, send manna from Heaven and all sorts of hard to believe stuff.

  25. David:

    Let’s not forget the litany of horrors he inflicted on poor Job for, um… well, I’m still not particularly clear on the reasons for that one. Sadism, I guess?

  26. Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:42 pm
    A nice bipartisan political story today. Anthony Albanese, Chris Minns, Tanya Plibersek, Jo Haylen and Kellie Sloane serving disadvantaged people food today in Sydney.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/dec/25/albanese-serves-hot-meals-with-a-side-of-hope-for-christmas-lunch

    The PM should have ditched the interview with has-been grifter looking for relevance, Susie Elelman, and just done another genuinely productive thing like the above.

  27. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:31 pm

    North Korea on Thursday released new images of what it claims is its first nuclear-powered submarine, a massive vessel equal in size to some of the United States Navy’s attack subs. The pictures released by state media showed leader Kim Jong Un inspecting the guided-missile submarine at an indoor construction facility, indicating it has not yet been launched.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/24/asia/north-korea-nuclear-powered-submarine-intl-hnk-ml
    =====================
    Thanks.

    North Korea has been ramping up its ship building capacity. (Bludgers will recall that the last ship to be launched in 2025 ended up half sunk and half hung up on the wharf.) North Korea’s newer naval surface ship displacements are said to be approaching 5,000 tons.

    I had to suppress some sense of feeling that the boat in the image was a blow up doll. It is a third larger than North Korea’s largest surface ship to date… a big jump.

    There are some odd, odd things. For example, having a horizontal fin half way up the sale but, except for right aft, none at all on the hull. Then there is a a sail that is half the length of the boat – a very strange design feature. There is that weird strake bulging outwards along the lower hull. The thick cluster of sensors looks way off. The very odd brass colour makes me wonder what metals they used.

    The jury is out whether it is real, IMO.

  28. Our Xmas was uneventful but noisy.

    I remember my childhood Christmas and they could be brutal affairs. The uncles fighting, tv sets being thrown. A wife king hit so hard she actually spun around in a 360 before falling over flat on her face. Kids getting belted, kids fighting over toys. The aunties getting in shouting matches.

    But that was the last generation, and they are almost all gone and the few that remain are docile. We have become almost civilized.

  29. This is another positive event that went ahead, at Bondi, today:

    ‘Once Mohammad Bhuiyan’s three daughters finish their food at Bondi Surf Bathers Life Saving Club’s annual charity Christmas Day lunch, it’s onto the presents. The giggles of eight-year-old twins Fiona and Febina, and their younger sister, Farhina, 4, fill the room.

    The lunch’s organiser, lifesaver Sebastian Cassie, nearly cancelled this year’s meal due to concerns it was too soon after the events of December 14, in which 15 people were shot dead.

    Cassie, who was a first responder at the shooting, said he asked a local rabbi for advice about planning the lunch.

    “Their words of encouragement and wisdom were: ‘No, you put it on.’ In the Jewish community, how they communicated it to me was that you overcome tragedy and darkness by putting on things that bring light, joy and community service,” Cassie said.

    “It has been difficult, but now that I’m halfway through the day already, you can see I’m smiling, and it brings you so much joy to see all these people come together and show those assholes that you’ll never bring us down.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/you-overcome-darkness-by-bringing-light-lunch-brings-bondi-together-for-christmas-20251225-p5nq2q.html


  30. Ashasays:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:27 pm
    BW:

    What, you arn’t inspired by the beautiful story of a woman who cheated on her partner and then managed to convince him that her pregnancy was an act of God?

    Hey why are you quoting story from Hindu epics
    She had 1 pregnancy before marriage and 5 after marriage all attributed various gods

  31. I see that ‘The Australian’ is still hell bent on rabidly increasing the political temperature in Australia. Their contribution to the febrile nation is execrable.

  32. C@t at 8:56pm

    Yeah, true. I can’t believe that she thought that today would be an appropriate day to attack him like that.

    Reading what happened, it reminds me of an early episode of The Thick of It where Hugh and Glenn are rehearsing for an interview and Hugh tells Glenn to dial the aggression up to maximum and Glenn asks “Where’s the nazi gold, you donkey-shagger?!”

    Sadly I think they’re going to go to that level next year.

  33. ‘nath says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 9:00 pm

    Our Xmas was uneventful but noisy.

    I remember my childhood Christmas and they could be brutal affairs. The uncles fighting, tv sets being thrown. A wife king hit so hard she actually spun around in a 360 before falling over flat on her face. Kids getting belted, kids fighting over toys. The aunties getting in shouting matches.

    But that was the last generation, and they are almost all gone and the few that remain are docile. We have become almost civilized.’
    =============
    Wow.

  34. Christmas Day, Miena, Tasmania:

    While in Perth:

    As of 2pm WST, the temperature in the city hit 42C and was still climbing, while in Gooseberry Hill east of the city, it hit 43.1C.


    A WA sunrise snapped from Kings Park in central Perth on Christmas Day.

  35. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:56 pm
    Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 8:42 pm
    A nice bipartisan political story today. Anthony Albanese, Chris Minns, Tanya Plibersek, Jo Haylen and Kellie Sloane serving disadvantaged people food today in Sydney.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/dec/25/albanese-serves-hot-meals-with-a-side-of-hope-for-christmas-lunch

    The PM should have ditched the interview with has-been grifter looking for relevance, Susie Elelman, and just done another genuinely productive thing like the above.
    ==========
    Did you listen to the interview too c@t?
    It got off to a icy start when she refused to say “Merry Christmas” too him in response to him just trying to be polite. She then explained that she didn’t feel particulary “merry”, and then ripped into him. It sounded like he cut the interview short and walked out.
    After the ad break, she mentioned to the audience that that would probably be the last time she ever interviews him.
    My eyes literally fell out of their sockets listening to the 8 minute “interview”.

  36. Boerwarsays:

    But that was the last generation, and they are almost all gone and the few that remain are docile. We have become almost civilized.’
    =============
    Wow.
    ______________
    Seventh generation convicts, wharfies and alcohol.

  37. BW:

    I’ve been asking myself the same question for over fifteen years now, but somehow they still seem to get enough listeners to remain profitable.

  38. Kirsdarke,
    I also thought that wheeling out Julian Leeser to demand a federal RC, and the parents of Lindt Siege casualty, Katrina Dawson, to also demand one and to say that it was disgusting of the PM to bring up the Lindt Siege to make his point about lack of RCs after other catastrophes, is just low rent and tawdry in the extreme from the Coalition, as they continue to think they’re on a winner with their calling for one in order to drag out the pain and misery from the event for another 2 or 3 years. I predict they’ve got a conga line of parrots from the pet shop lined up to keep doing it as well.

    I actually read the other day that Ley has someonee new in her office who used to be in Morrison’s office. Hence, the ‘Look at moi!’ stuff lately.

  39. Heh, Philomena Cunk has a fun line on this subject.

    “Jesus’s mum was this woman, The Virgin Mary, who one night got visited by an angel, and told she be gotten pregnant by a holy ghost. Of course actual ghosts jizz ectoplasm, which only contains ghost sperm. But Jesus wasn’t born a phantom, leading experts to believe Mary wasn’t impregnated by a real ghost, but by a man in a sheet, like in Scooby Doo.”

    Mary’s husband Joseph didn’t mind his son being God’s rather than his. Because he knew God would probably buy Jesus loads of toys, and have him on weekends, which would take the pressure off.

  40. I remember going to Sinagapore and seeing a school called the Red Swastika School. I was like wtf why as a kid? But then I realised the Nazis literally inverted the symbol

  41. After the ad break, she mentioned to the audience that that would probably be the last time she ever interviews him.

    nadia,
    He’s probably thinking, ‘thank goodness!’

    Honestly, I’m really getting fed up with all those disrespectful bunch of lip flappers who think that because they have a microphone in front of them that they can be cock of the walk. Instead, they just sound like turkeys.

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