Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

The first post-Bondi poll suggests real but limited damage for Labor on voting intention, and a solid hit to Anthony Albanese on personal approval.

Nine Newspapers has results from what it is calling a “special” Resolve Strategic poll, presumably because it was commissioned specifically to gauge reaction to the Bondi shootings, conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1010. It is thus not part of the pollster’s normal monthly series, which typically targets 1600 respondents and presumably produced its final result for the year a fortnight ago. The field work period for that poll was from December 3 – the date first reports appeared that Communications Minister Annika Wells had spent nearly $100,000 on air fares to New York for herself and two staffers, thus initiating a period of bad publicity for the government concerning travel expenses – to December 7.

The latest poll finds only a modest decline in support for Labor on two-party preferred, their lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. However, Labor is down three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up two to 28%, with the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up two to 16%. Anthony Albanese takes a substantial hit on his personal ratings, his combined very good and good rating down eight to 40% and poor plus very poor up six to 49%, and his lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 41-26 to 38-30. Sussan Ley’s personal ratings have also weakened, down three on very good plus good to 36% and up three on poor plus very poor to 40%.

Despite everything, 37% rate social cohesion in Australia as very good or good, compared with 30% for poor or very poor, with the balance undecided. Twenty-nine per cent rate the government’s response to the attacks as strong and 46% as weak, and 72% agree that there has been “a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia, including as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict”, with only 9% disagreement. A further question, whose utility I have my doubts about, finds 55% rating that there has been more anti-Semitism than Islamophobia in recent months, compared with 13% vice-versa and 32% for unsure or both equally.

UPDATE: Further results have been published by Nine Newspapers today, including a finding that 76% want tougher gun laws, compared with only 6% for relaxing them and 10% for keeping them as they are. Respondents were given a list of nine “priorities for government” and asked to pick the two most important, with those at the law enforcement end of the equation (49% for preventing terrorist attacks, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns) favoured over more abstract concerns (33% preventing radicalisation, 29% tackling anti-Semitism and 26% tackling hate speech).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,498 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. goll says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 2:53 pm

    Sky News,
    “Shadow education minister Julian Leeser has fiercely called out Anthony Albanese…’
    =====================
    Please do cool it Mr Leeser.

    We are all living in a febrile state which involves giving police powers to decide which demonstrations fail the taste test and which ones pass muster.

    So do stop trying to inflame the situation.

  2. Perhaps the slaughter of innocent civilians in Gaza and the ongoing 80 year brutalisation of Palestinians has something to do with it, c@t.
    I dunno, just a thought.
    Perhaps Zionists should stop the public display of symbols others find triggering?
    What’s good for the goose…..etc

  3. I hope Albanese does call a RC into Australian racism since 1778.

    It is well overdue.

    Those inflaming the situation by calling for it might find themselves hoist on their own petard.

    Because Royal Commissioners, empowered with the right TOR, that is to say ALL racism and not JUST anti-semitic racism would be totally overwhelmed by the volume of submissions.

  4. I think Albo should hold the line.
    To do otherwise and give in to the grotesque and outrageous behaviour from Liberal party operatives would end him.

  5. Boerwar

    I think you will find that when the police decide which demonstrations are allowed to go ahead and which ones are banned you have a police state.
    ———-
    I understand they are banning ALL demonstrators for two weeks in parts of Sydney. I fail to see how this is anti-muslim nor evidence of a police state.

    A “police state” being one where many liberties are curtailed by the extensive use of the police, including secret police.

  6. Mundo says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 3:06 pm
    Perhaps the slaughter of innocent civilians in Gaza and the ongoing 80 year brutalisation of Palestinians has something to do with it, c@t.
    I dunno, just a thought.
    Perhaps Zionists should stop the public display of symbols others find triggering?
    What’s good for the goose…..etc

    ____________________________________________

    What symbols are these? Perhaps you can enlighten the PB community.

  7. ‘Rakali says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 3:20 pm

    Boerwar

    I think you will find that when the police decide which demonstrations are allowed to go ahead and which ones are banned you have a police state.
    ———-
    I understand they are banning ALL demonstrators for two weeks in parts of Sydney. I fail to see how this is anti-muslim nor evidence of a police state.

    A “police state” being one where many liberties are curtailed by the extensive use of the police, including secret police.’
    ==================
    A police state is one where what civil ‘liberties’ you get or don’t get are decided by the police. It is exactly the same in Beijing or Pyongyang.

    The test for my other thesis is this:

    1. If no anti-Israel/Gaza protests are allowed BUT
    2. Invasion day protests ARE allowed.

  8. I would have thought the union jack which basically represents the Australian genocide of Australia, the Star of David, which basically represents the progressive ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and the West Bank, and the Palestinian flag which basically represents the Intifada which has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people would all handily merit ‘symbols of hate’ status.

    It all depends on your criteria and your thresholds, of course.

  9. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 3:34 pm

    The firebombing of the Hanukkah car wasn’t a big help. That’s a violent act. It’s all very sad.’
    ===================
    True. Neither was placing severed pigs heads in a muslim cemetery.
    The Forever War goes on and on and on.
    The latest moves by Katz and Netanyahu (grabbing part of Gaza, approving 17 ‘settlements’ in the West Bank) guarantees it for the foreseeable future.

  10. Boerwar

    “ The test for my other thesis is this:

    1. If no anti-Israel/Gaza protests are allowed BUT
    2. Invasion day protests ARE allowed.”
    ———
    So you are equating anti-Israel/Gaza protests as being a “muslim” thing. I have no idea the makeup of the crowds but they seem to attract a very wide range of people, including lots of non-muslim leftists.

    Is that because invasion day protests will be after the two week period when presumably all will also be able to demonstrate, incuding your “muslims”.

  11. ‘Rakali says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 3:44 pm

    Boerwar

    “ The test for my other thesis is this:

    1. If no anti-Israel/Gaza protests are allowed BUT
    2. Invasion day protests ARE allowed.”
    ———
    So you are equating anti-Israel/Gaza protests as being a “muslim” thing.’
    ===================
    My test holds for any time during the next three months. It is free months now but Minns has established the ‘principle’ that protests can be banned or selectively approved at any time in the future. It is how democracy disappears: with a series of whimpers.

    The initial police state decision is that all protests are illegal. This is actually worse than in Beijing where some forms of protests are actually legal. Fancy that!

    I am around about 100% certain that when the only protests that are disallowed are ones relating to Gaza and the West Bank, that Australia’s muslims will draw the inevitable conclusion.

  12. Merry Christmas everyone.

    I’ve always had rather mixed feelings on the holiday myself. Lots of great memories from my childhood as well as family gatherings in adulthood (neither of my parents are religious, but they’ve always embraced Christmas as something fun for the kids and a reason to reunite with extended family), intermingled with with my general dislike of materialism and a decade working in retail that progressively turned me into a bit of a grinch. (Christ, if I ever have to hear that awful fucking “Aussie” version of Jingle Bells again… or have to explain to someone that three days before Christmas is perhaps not to best time to head out to the shops to get their turkey.) Thankfully, with each year, those bitter memories of the supermarket Christmas rush become increasingly distant, and I find myself able to get into the Christmas spirit again.

    I’m currently in Hue for a few days with my brother and his missus. Its pissing down with rain here right now, but otherwise quite the lovely place to spend the holidays. I like how the Vietnamese celebrate Christmas. They go all out in the week or so prior, but otherwise are very chill about it. None of this “everywhere blaring Christmas music from early November onwards” nonsense we deal with in Australia.

  13. Vale Nick Bolkus

    MB, I also had several encounters with Nick, though when he was in opposition after 1996. A very well informed Senator, who took a great interest in national security and our place in the world.

    Though probably his greatest contribution to the nation was promoting within his SA Left faction a young, Malaysian/Chinese lawyer who has risen to become one of our best ever Foreign Ministers.

  14. Asha
    And merry christmas to your good self. In our extended family the kids get prezzies and each year the adults pool the presents money and turn it into philanthropy.

  15. I am starting to notice social media posts which make up fake stories about Australians who have been arrested and charged for saying fairly normal things.
    That didn’t take long.

  16. The determination by some identities and some media to “demand” certain responses from the levels of government is not going to help the grieving community from Bondi, the Zionists or the peace in the ME.
    The majority of Australians are deeply sympathetic towards the Bondi Jewish community.
    “megaphone” demands coming from politicians is neither helpful for the grieving in Bondi nor the broader diverse community .
    Much of what has been said and demanded since the massacre has fuelled further diffusion and disharmony.
    The “get Albanese” element will more than likely have the opposite effect to that intended.
    Should a poster of John Howard and publically display be banned because it represents a symbol of hate !
    Perhaps Sky News should be banned for a period !

  17. Thanks Boerwar!

    each year the adults pool the presents money and turn it into philanthropy.

    Ooh, I like that idea. One of my least favourite things about Christmas has always been the stress of running about the shops trying to find appropriate gifts for adult family members and friends.

  18. I know why talk about horrible person like Trump but this is his Christmas message

    Trump threatens TV networks in unhinged Merry Christmas rant

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/12/24/2359910/-Trump-threatens-TV-networks-in-unhinged-Merry-Christmas-rant?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

    “In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump complained about comedian Stephen Colbert, longtime critic and host of CBS’ “The Late Show.”

    “Stephen Colbert is a pathetic trainwreck, with no talent or anything else necessary for show business success,” Trump wrote. “Now, after being terminated by CBS, but left out to dry, he has actually gotten worse, along with his nonexistent ratings. Stephen is running on hatred and fumes ~ A dead man walking! CBS should, ‘put him to sleep,’ NOW, it is the humanitarian thing to do!”

    “Trump followed up the post with another arguing that networks with newscasts and late night shows purportedly “100% negative” in their coverage of Trump, MAGA, and the Republican Party should have their broadcast licenses terminated.

    The rambling rant was capped by a “Merry Christmas” post from Trump.”

  19. Sadly I don’t think most Australians even know what a RC is- and when it is needed.

    A thorough RC into Bondi would takes years, so no report until 2028. Then a few recommendations get discussed in the public domain- some maybe adopted by the Government of the time. Or all the recommendations can be ignored and buried (like the Banking and Seniors RCs).

    By then its 2029, and $250mllion plus down the drain.

    i am not sure that’s exactly what the Jewish, or even Australian communities really want.

  20. I remember when all the centrists and guardian types were falling all over Julian Leeser because of his temporary support for the Voice, just like they did for Turnbull because he wasn’t the onion munching fuckwit previously in charge..

    Remember, at the heart of every Liberal Party politician is a Liberal Party politician.

  21. Leeser paid a price for sticking up for the Yes.
    That does not mean he earned the right to try to amp up the tension at a fraffly febrile moment in our history.

  22. Mundo says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 4:27 pm
    TPOF
    The Israeli flag for a start.

    ________________________________________

    How about the Russian flag? The Iranian flag? The flag of the USA? The Union Jack? The Palestinian Flag? There are plenty of people who find them triggering for one reason or another. Why not ban them?
    And, if the Israeli flag is just the start, where would you move to next? Have the Star of David banned – unless it is on a yellow patch?

  23. Wat:

    A happy Christmas to all of you at home!

    Don’t know if you are aware of this, but an absolute champion made an animated version of that episode (synced up to the surviving audio) about a decade ago which is still floating about YouTube.

    https://youtu.be/ZRFlWddgi2Y?si=C2upkmBxJg_8-2vJ

    It’s terrible (the episode itself, I mean, the animation is excellent for a fan effort), but a rather fascinating watch all the same.

    Apparently the production team and the BBC hated it so much that they never sold it overseas and wiped the tape soon after it aired, making it the least likely missing Doctor Who episode to ever be recovered. Unless there was a very early adopter of home video recording technology (which did exist in 1965, but was prohibitably expensive for most people) out there who decided to record it on Christmas day, its gone for good.

    Even the existance of the surviving stills is a minor miracle. Most missing Doctor Who still exists in the form of “telesnaps” – literally photos taken of the TV while the episode was airing, usually made as mementos for the actors and production team – but none were commisioned for this serial. However, someone (I can’t recall who) ended up taking some photos themselves of this episode during its one and only broadcast, providing us with the only visual record of it.

  24. ‘TPOF says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 5:43 pm

    Mundo says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 4:27 pm
    TPOF
    The Israeli flag for a start.

    ________________________________________

    How about the Russian flag? The Iranian flag? The flag of the USA? The Union Jack? The Palestinian Flag? There are plenty of people who find them triggering for one reason or another. Why not ban them?
    And, if the Israeli flag is just the start, where would you move to next? Have the Star of David banned – unless it is on a yellow patch?’
    ================
    You would certainly ban it being on a yellow patch.
    I support all of your suggested flag bannings.
    They all represent death, destruction and hate to large numbers of people.

  25. Mundo says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 5:50 pm
    Yes. Yellow patch or not.

    ______________________________________________

    I thought you’d like it with the yellow patch. Well, I’d like to see all crosses banned. And the crescent and star.

    And the Aboriginal flag. There are people who get triggered by that. Like Pauline Hanson. They’re Australians too – why should they have to see a flag they don’t like flying everywhere?

  26. I’m all for crosses being banned.
    Expecting, say, a hindu or secular or muslim soldier in the ADF to accept a Victoria Cross is ludicrous.
    The cross is a hate symbol for large numbers of people who have suffered abuse in, say, the catholic church.

  27. Absolutely. Ban the Aboriginal flag. After all 180 non-Aboriginal people were massacred during the Frontier Wars. Ban the burkah, the kippah, the khaffiyeh as well. Just about everyone hates something.

    As I posited a couple of weeks ago we need a Four Legs Good Citizens Committee to work out which protests should be allowed and which banned, which language (including specific words and phrases) should be banned and which allowed, and which symbols should be allowed and which banned. I grew up when censorship committees decided what we could read and what we could not read. These came up with increasing levels of silliness over time and eventually they folded on the rocks of their internal contradictions.

    So getting the Four Legs Good Citizens Committee appointments right is vital.

    This would be a far, far superior model to the almost random freaky moral panic mob rule by Sky After Dark/Murdocrats and their right wing sleeve tugging hangers-on such as Ley & Co. Inter alia, this public panic mongering has already cost us completely the freedom of assembly and has already considerably restricted freedom of speech. A lot of good people died for those freedoms.

    Choosing the membership of the Citizens Committee should be quite straightforward, IMO. We could outsource it to the disinterested foreigners with genuine insight into genocidal mania, febrile societies and state and non-state terrorism.

    We obviously need something with a bit of balance. I am thinking: Qassem, Sinwar, Netanyahu, Katz, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, Khamenei and al-Houthi. They have lots in common: lots of blood.

  28. On symbols, I was in Japan a month ago and kept seeing swastikas on the Hindu buildings.

    Just because you are offended doesn’t mean you are right.

  29. The WCH took down a nativity scene because it offended someone.

    Turned out they has used a disposable wee collector somewhere in it.

    Albo has just said there is “an evil presence” in Australia.

  30. So the one group we know has committed criminal violence at protests, the NSW police, an organisation with a track record of trying to stop anti-genocide marches, is now in charge of suppressing democratic rights in NSW.

    You guys don’t just hate democracy you are nuts.

  31. Newy Boy

    Some happy news from Ukraine. Multiple sourcers are confirming that the Russian forces that “captured’ Kupyansk hace been completely surrounded and destroyed.

    “ OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Multiple Russian milbloggers started to confirm today that Ukrainian forces have mostly recaptured the key northeastern city of Kupyansk.

    Russian milblogger Rybar laments “we defeated ourselves.”
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2004020797640527944

  32. Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 7:27 pm
    The WCH took down a nativity scene because it offended someone.

    Turned out they has used a disposable wee collector somewhere in it.

    Albo has just said there is “an evil presence” in Australia.
    ===================
    I heard briefly about the Adelaide WCH issue. What was the background to it’s removal?
    Surely someone wasn’t upset about a “nativity scene”.

    Albo had a hostile interview on 2GB this morning too. The radio host was Susie Elelman.
    He ended up cutting it short and walked out. We get 2GB radio via 4BC over summer.

    I hope everyone had a quiet day. I have to say, it’s always good when it winds down.

  33. The world is an awful place right now… I don’t think things will improve anytime soon…
    I think the best thing to do is to speak out against violence and racism in any form.
    Speak out against nationalism and tribalism.

    Don’t be silent. Don’t be silenced.

    Ignore people that want to shut down this voice against violence.

  34. Reminds me of the old stick a sign on my back saying hit me.
    Why draw the crabs so unnecessarily at a time of heightened divisiveness?
    Stupid.

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