Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor (open thread)

Beneath another strong headline figure, a softening primary vote for Labor and indications it may have taken a hit amid the travel expenses furore.

Roy Morgan’s last poll for the year has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from polling conducted December 8 to 14, with primary votes of Labor 30.5%, Coalition 27.5%, Greens 13% and One Nation 17%. These numbers have been published as a subset of its regular result compiling polling conducted over the full month (specifically from November 17 to December 14), suggesting Labor may have taken a hit during the period of the survey period coinciding the with the travel expenses affair. Labor’s two-party lead over the full month was 55.5-44.5 (in from 56.5-43.5 last month), from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one, and their lowest primary vote in any poll since the election), Coalition 26.5% (down half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 15.5% (up one-and-a-half). Applying preference flows from the May federal election, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at 55-45, unchanged on last month.

The samples were 1574 for the December 8 to 14 period, and 4862 overall. The full release features breakdowns for each state (including Tasmania) as well as by gender age.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,996 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 40 of 40
1 39 40
  1. Landlord of the Yearsays:
    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:00 pm
    Nath
    Wasn’t there someone from South Australia that agreed with C@T on everything before falling out.
    _______
    yeah, a religious fella. Not too bright.

  2. It’s nath. Nice sock puppet, nath.

    Wait, that makes no sense. I’m just used to that being the accusation. Maybe nath has two different browsers open… 😮

  3. nath @ #1951 Sunday, December 21st, 2025 – 10:31 pm

    Landlord of the Yearsays:
    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:00 pm
    Nath
    Wasn’t there someone from South Australia that agreed with C@T on everything before falling out.
    _______
    yeah, a religious fella. Not too bright.

    Not that dude who was leftier-than-thou but somehow also thought Malinauskas was the greatest leader ever?

  4. Wat Tylersays:
    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:03 pm
    It’s nath. Nice sock puppet, nath.

    Wait, that makes no sense. I’m just used to that being the accusation. Maybe nath has two different browsers open…
    ______
    Not me. I learnt my lesson. Bowe bitch slapped me for 8 months.

  5. nath says:
    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:05 pm
    Not that dude who was leftier-than-thou but somehow also thought Malinauskas was the greatest leader ever?
    ___
    yep.
    =====
    Definitely not – SDA types make me recoil

  6. I suspect almost all non-Anglos would be extremely offended at the proposition of a royal commission into racism against a specific race or religion at the exclusion of others.

  7. So, are you going to reveal your previous moniker, so we can all either go “Oh wow. You!”, “Oh no. You!” or, probably, “Who?”

  8. Wat & Asha appear to be acreting off each other in a similar form to meheh & TPOF, in the same form of terrestrial bodies. A word of advice: before entering into a lease, seek legal advice.

  9. Mavis:

    Wat & Asha appear to be acreting off each other in a similar form to meheh & TPOF, in the same form of terrestrial bodies. A word of advice: before entering into a lease, seek legal advice.

    ….what?

  10. Wat Tyler:

    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:40 pm

    [‘Well, if you weren’t such an insufferable and nasty self-appointed sheriff, you might bond with some people on here too.’]

    Please stop confirming my point. And at my age, I do not need to bond with anyone.

  11. Stop getting along with each other, everyone! Do as you are supposed to on Poll Bludger and engage in bitter, vitriolic flame wars with the idiots who don’t share your opinions.

  12. Asha:

    Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 11:48 pm

    [‘Stop getting along with each other, everyone! Do as you are supposed to on Poll Bludger and engage in bitter, vitriolic flame wars with the idiots who don’t share your opinions.’]

    I think getting along with each other should be subordinate to speaking one’s mind. I know that you & Wat are WB’s favourites, probably around the same age. As I’ve opined hereinbefore, I find Wat to be a young man who’s troubled with adverse criticism. Deal with it, dear.

  13. Hi Bludgers

    I see Nath is being his hyper annoying self and doing Trump whataboutism. Not good.

    Surprisingly the Coalition and right wing media are milking an awful tragedy for all it’s worth. Shows how desperate and broken they are.

    I backed Albanese on here ages ago and will continue to do so.

  14. Mavis, if you think you sound like the voice of reason who is just telling it as it is, and not just some terminally online crankpot who is just randomly bullying people for no reason, you’re mistaken.

  15. Wat Tyler:

    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 12:11 am

    [‘Mavis, if you think you sound like the voice of reason who is just telling it as it is, and not just some terminally online crankpot who is just randomly bullying people for no reason, you’re mistaken.’]

    Please stop providing further evidence thereof. I know what’s going on. Good night, dear.

  16. Mavis, has it ever occured to you that perhaps Wat and myself might simply have similar opinions on the issues of the day? (Not on everything, mind you, we’ve disagreed on a number of occasions.)

  17. And, of course, if there’s one thing I must be known for on this website, it would be my reluctance to share my own hot takes out of fear of how it might be recieved.

  18. Someone gives yet another example of the staggering grift and corruption in the Trump orbit and you do whataboutism. Don’t play dumb.

    To clarify, I’m saying generally you are hyper annoying; but in addition, you do Trump whataboutism. You’ve done it before.

  19. Ashas:

    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 12:25 am

    [‘Mavis, has it ever occured to you that perhaps Wat and myself might simply have similar opinions on the issues of the day? (Not on everything, mind you, we’ve disagreed on a number of occasions.)’]

    Yes, it has!’

  20. Have Barnaby and Pauline processed the fact that a pillar of MAGA cultural identity is to hate Jews? A majority of ON voters are Trump cult lovers right? Who could forget “Jews will not replace us”.

    Has our media even brought this up anomaly up?

  21. “I’m not presuming anything on behalf of the populous. I’m saying that the Jewish community’s evident antagonism towards Albanese is of much greater significance to the functioning of Australian society than how long it took Ley to go and visit Ahmed. I don’t see how that’s a controversial statement. ”

    One of the reasons, apart from growing up among friends in the Jewish community, I have made a point of sticking up for Jews (and pre Netanyahu, for Israel) is that it remains a very small minority. It doesn’t have dozens of countries and hundreds of millions of adherents to stick up for it like Islam or Christianity.

    The antagonism of some fraction of 0.45% of Australia to Labor, which already existed and has existed for generations long before Bondi, may be being given an incredibly outsize focus by media agitators trying their damnedest to attack Albanese, but no it is not of great significance to Australian society.

    Any continued appearance of hostility to non-Anglos by the Libs, on the other hand, is very relevant to the functioning of Australian society. People noticed how quick the Prices and Hasties of this world were to try and blame immigrants before the facts were in.

  22. Oh the Hilary speeches. I suppose you could call it whataboutism, if I supported trump.

    But at the mention of a 40 million dollar hand pass, it did bring up the memory of the 30 million dollar speech haul from Wall Street.

    Not that I don’t like Hilary, I think she would have made a much better president.

    Instead of looking at it as whataboutism, think of it as part of my anti stooge defence mechanism.

  23. Asha:

    Monday, December 22, 2025 at 12:25 am

    [Mavis, has it ever occured to you that perhaps Wat and myself might simply have similar opinions on the issues of the day? (Not on everything, mind you, we’ve disagreed on a number of occasions.)]

    Please stop the crapola

  24. Charles @ #1985 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 12:41 am

    Have Barnaby and Pauline processed the fact that a pillar of MAGA cultural identity is to hate Jews? A majority of ON voters are Trump cult lovers right? Who could forget “Jews will not replace us”.

    Has our media even brought this up anomaly up?

    They don’t seem to have picked up on the fact that MAGA is currently tearing itself apart over that.

    Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson were in full attack mode against each other at the Turning Point USA event this week. And Nick Fuentes the “Groyper in chief” was the subject of their dispute.

  25. Thanks for that Kirksdale. I’ve been so busy I haven’t caught up with all of it. It’s a slow motion car crash isn’t it?

    Another thing I’ve noticed is the other big fanboy of the far-right in Australia Nigel Farage has failed to apologise to high school classmates over alleged antisemitic abuse.

  26. Charles @ #1992 Monday, December 22nd, 2025 – 1:10 am

    Thanks for that Kirksdale. I’ve been so busy I haven’t caught up with all of it. It’s a slow motion car crash isn’t it?

    Another thing I’ve noticed is the other big fanboy of the far-right in Australia Nigel Farage has failed to apologise to high school classmates over alleged antisemitic abuse.

    He’s trying to pull off the Trump maneuver in that he shouldn’t ever have to apologise for anything, just try to do the Boris Johnson “waffle waffle waffle” thing and pretend it never happened.

    Probably the only thing he can do when the things he did were pretty fucked up, even for a dumb high school student. There’s the usual bully things and then there’s telling Jewish classmates that “Hitler was right” and hissing, followed by specific explanations that “That’s the sound of gas chambers” and repeatedly telling a Nigerian classmate to go back to where he came from every day when he arrived at school.

  27. I read that a report in The Financial Review USA that a police officer did shoot at Ahmed but missed him.
    Maybe that’s why Ahmed put the gun down and waved his arms.

Comments Page 40 of 40
1 39 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *