The first published poll of New South Wales state voting intention since Kellie Sloane replaced Mark Speakman as Liberal leader shows no improvement in the party’s position, with Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 30%, Greens 10% and One Nation 4%. Forty-three per cent agreed the government had the right focus and priorities, with 33% disagreeing, while 20% felt Kellie Sloane and the Coalition deserved to win the next election, with 45% disagreeing. The poll was conducted by RedBridge Group/Access Research from November 24 (three says after Sloane became leader) to December 8 from a sample of 1293 and published in the Financial Review.
Is that One Nation vote meant to be 4% or 14%?
Either way, I don’t think that dozen or so seats that were “too close to call” on the night that all fell to the Liberals in the following week in 2023 would survive that miracle again in 2027 on these numbers.
The racist fascists at ON are thankfully only at 4%. Other is at 18%, and would include microparties like Sustainable Australia, Shooters, Legal Weed, Animal Justice, Libertarians, cooker parties, Socialist Alliance with roughly half of that OTHER being unaffiliated local independents.
There’s a generational breakdown as well:
Gen Z: Labor 42, LNP 15, Green 25, OTH 17, ON 1
Millennial: Labor 35, LNP 30, Green 11, OTH 20, ON 4
Gen X: Labor 37, LNP 31, Green 7, OTH 20, ON 5
Boomers: Labor 39, LNP 36, Green 4, OTH 16, ON 5
Question on Minns having “right priority” has
Strong Agree: 6
Agree: 37
Disagree: 22
Strong Disagree: 11
Unsure: 24
10 point advantage to Minns with unsure excluded.
Question on “Sloan & LNP deserve to win election”
Strong Agree: 5
Agree: 15
Disagree: 28
Strong Disagree: 17
Unsure: 35
15 point negative with unsure excluded.
Oh, wow, that’s a surprisingly low vote for One Nation. In most NSW polls on the federal level they’re in double digits.
I wonder if, for a lot of NSW voters, ‘One Nation’ has come to be more associated with ‘Mark Latham’.
Kellie Sloan has had quite the honeymoon from the media here in Sydney, notably 2GB and ABC Radio and the Daily Telegraph, Chris Minns in comparison has been virtually ignored by the media – so taking all that into account, NSW Labor would be rather happy with this poll, it would seem to indicate that the NSW Liberals have a long way to go before they can get back into government and Sloan eventually will have to detail how she’d pay for new metro lines in Sydney – what other services would she cut, for example?
Chris Minn’s main worries will be the usual ones – the state of the health system, public transport, housing, and law & order.
One Nation 4%:
Joyce won’t be happy with that. He needs 1/7 of the formal vote. In the 2022 half Senate election, for example, this equated to 685,818 for one quota.
Democracy Sausage:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 5:37 pm
[‘…Chris Minns in comparison has been virtually ignored by the media…’]
There’s a message there.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 5:14 pm
Oh, wow, that’s a surprisingly low vote for One Nation. In most NSW polls on the federal level they’re in double digits.
”
Kirsdarke
As you pointed the ON PV is in low single digits in NSW.
Even for QLD and VIC state polls, ON PV vote is in single digits, where as the federal ON numbers are consistently in mid teens. Why this change State and federal ON is baffling me.
Democracy Sausage says:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 5:37 pm
Kellie Sloan has had quite the honeymoon from the media here in Sydney,
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The polls suggest there is no honeymoon for her at all. Quite a flop.
Ven says:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 6:28 pm
”
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 5:14 pm
Oh, wow, that’s a surprisingly low vote for One Nation. In most NSW polls on the federal level they’re in double digits.
”
Kirsdarke
As you pointed the ON PV is in low single digits in NSW.
Even for QLD and VIC state polls, ON PV vote is in single digits, where as the federal ON numbers are consistently in mid teens. Why this change State and federal ON is baffling me.
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The One Nation boosters here have disappeared off the site with that 4% primary.
I’m tending to agree with some of the other regular posters on the main thread, ie: that people telling pollsters they’ll vote for O.N. is a “tantrum thing”.
Even in the Hinchinbrook by-election, the O.N. vote was around 13%. They should have lapped up the KAP vote, but somehow it went back to the LNP.
I know O.N. is polling around 18% on BT & I don’t want to get into arguments with a computer, but I don’t believe it. I’d say it’s really around 8% nationally.
I think this 4% in NSW (note: Australia’s largest state by pop) is a bit of a wake up call.
nadia:
Saturday, December 13, 2025 at 6:37 pm
[‘I think this 4% in NSW (note: Australia’s largest state by pop) is a bit of a wake up call.’]
I guess it’s too late for Joyce to crawl back to the Country Party. I’d like to see this particularly low vote for Hanson’s party replicated in a few other polls before giving it too much credence.
My guess for how it’ll shake out.
* Pauline retires from her long life of professional racist grifting to return to amateur racist grifting.
* Hanson’s demon spawn stays in Tasmania hoping that the implosion of the Lambie Network gives her a win in the 6th slot.
* Barnaby jumps across the border to run for Queensland in the Senate, giving him what seems to be a certain win, potentially in 3rd place.
Where the rubber might hit the road is how much Lee Hanson really wants to win and how much control of the Party the Elder Hanson will retain knowing she’s going. The Tasmanian senate spot won’t be a sure thing even with Lambie going and will be a fight every 6 years, but Hanson Junior will have a job for life in Queensland.
A 68% primary vote for the major parties in NSW looks a lot better than it does nationally where it usually hovers around 59%-61%. I’m guessing there’s more trust in two-party politics on a state/local level.
Very good numbers for Chris Minns. I think he’s very good at managing the daily news cycle-understanding whatever the issue of the day might be, then popping up in the media to say the right thing at the right time. I don’t agree that he gets ignored by the media-at least on the nightly ABC news which I watch, he’s on quite regularly.
The perception that Labor is soft on youth crime looks like a factor in Vic. and Qld. state politics. It’s therefore interesting that the Minns government has ordered a review of the legal presumption that children aged 10-14 cannot commit crimes with criminal intent. Minns clearly doesn’t want Labor in NSW to have the same reputation as in Vic. or Qld. From what I’ve read, any change to remove this legal presumption will also bring with it substantial additional resources to support kids and families in problem areas, like towns in western NSW where there are problems with Aboriginal youth crime. Provided those resources are made available to tackle the root cause of the problem, I’ve got no problem with the proposed legal change.
I like Minns being able to manage the politics in a way that Jac Allen is clearly not.
For example, the Wollahra Railway Station issue was a classic ‘sock it to the snobs’ and worse, their direct representative Kelly Sloan, trying to defend the indefensible. It might help her margin in her seat a fraction being seen to stand up for the leafy sidestreets, but is a terrible message otherwise. The amount – about $200m – is not seen as financially irresponsible and no ‘battler’ in Mt Druitt or otherwise is gonna care about the feelings of rich people.
Encouraged to hear Minns is taking a different path on youth crime to other states, following the lead of the ACT, but overall I’ve found him to be an extremely disappointing Premier
He needs to do something substantial on pokies, his anti-protest laws are undemocratic, his return to the office policy for the public service doing the bidding of property developers, ignoring advice re coal mine expansions, etc
He is lucky the opposition is ordinary
Voters can at time consider state and federal seperately – see Qld returning Labor state governments for 30 odd years minus the Newman Blip despite favouring the Coalition federally.
Agree that protest against the feds plays a big role and will probably wane in the lead up to 2028.
Hard Being Green, I share your disappointment with Minns on some issues. He’s very reluctant to take on vested interests like the gambling industry, but there are some positives with Minns too, like better wages for government employees and more rights for renters. I think in general he doesn’t care too much about being attacked from the left, but he tries to avoid attacks from the right, as that is where the electoral threat is.
Newcastle Moderate he made the public servants fight for those pay rises
I wish politicians would be more concerned with doing what’s right than whose toes they might be stepping on
The problem with the greens is that they think that only their way is the right way.
Sloane, Wilson and Hurn – the lipstick on the Liberal pig. The women problem will not be solved by appointing/anointing youngish women as Leader. The solution for the Libs is to do something foreign to them – ie hard work on policy that would improve society rather than then usual blue pamphlet and rolling out the usual whinges about everything Labor is “flawed” and offering nothing by way of solutions.
Key update:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 0
Probably False 3
Definitely False 1
If it was today:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 3
Oh, this is new. Sky News reporting a poll from “Spectre Strategy”.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/chris-minns-leads-as-nsws-preferred-premier/video/845a46438ec67634d0bd768ae8432ff6
2pp: 56-44 ALP.
Primary Votes:
ALP: 34%
L/NP: 26%
One Nation: 16%
Greens: 11%
Preferred Premier:
Minns: 41%
Sloane: 26%
Some really bizarre stuff. One Nation’s vote fluctuating between 4% and 16% should raise some eyebrows.
Some really bizarre stuff. One Nation’s vote fluctuating between 4% and 16% should raise some eyebrows.
++
It is and I wish there was more skepticism about PHON voting intentions.
So by appointing young females of privilege (and from the Conservative Think Tank, the IPA) to leadership positions the tide is expected to turn in favour of the Liberal Party?
The problem is that these young, mostly blonde females are creatures of THEIR environments, not the environment the rest of us live in (so one rule for them and other rules for the rest of us)
And they promote division looking for the magical 50% plus 1
They knock and they knock and they knock – supported by their media
Their solution is resorting to platitudes such as repairing the budget which is code for you get what you can afford with no support from governments
The view of the entitled, hey?
And Labor soft on crime is a media story in every State and has been time in memorial
You can’t fault Chris Minn’s media performances since the awful events at Bondi on Sunday night.
On the other hand Sloane has been invisible beyond the initial attempt by the media to inject her into the narrative.