Essential Research 2PP+: 50-44 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finding no clear leader on the question of preferred Liberal leader, with Labor maintaining its commanding lead on voting intention.

The latest poll from Essential Research, which seems now to be monthly, has Labor steady on 36%, the Coalition up one to 27%, the Greens up two to 11% (reversing a dip in the previous poll) and One Nation steady on 15%, with the undecided component steady on 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor’s lead unchanged at 50-44, with the balance undecided. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 47% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Sussan Ley is down one to 31% and up one to 44%.

For the second month in a row (and in the immediate wake of a similar exercise from Newspoll), the pollster asked respondents to name their preferred Liberal leader, recording Sussan Ley at 14% (up one on last month), Jacinta Nampijinpa Price at 11% (up one), Andrew Hastie at 8% (down two), Angus Taylor at 5% (down two), Tim Wilson at 5% (up two), Allegra Spender at 2% (down two), somebody else at 10% (down two) and unsure at 45% (up three).

A regular national mood question has a steady 35% of the view that the country is headed in the right direction compared with 47% for wrong direction, up one. Fifty-two per cent rate the permanent migration cap of 185,000 as too high, down one from September, compared with 39% for about right, down one, and 9% for too low, up two. An even 42% rate immigration generally positive and generally negative for the country, with 16% unsure.

Further questions relate to climate change, with a question on Australia’s efforts to deal with the issue recording 20% of the view that too much is being done, which has steadily mounted from 11% when Labor came to power in May 2022. Thirty per cent rate that Australia is doing enough, and 36% not enough. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1020.

Other recent poll findings:

• As well as featuring extensive results on the government’s proposed overhaul of environment laws, an MRP poll by YouGov for the Climate Council featured a federal voting intention result showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 26%, One Nation on 18% and the Greens on 12%. The poll was conducted November 12 to 17 from a sample of 3530.

• Nine Newspapers (print editions – can’t find an online report) reports last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found Vladimir Putin viewed favourably 10% and unfavourably by 63%, with the balance neutral or unfamiliar, and Volodomyr Zelensky favourably by 37% and unfavourably by 12%. Trade sanctions on Russia were supported by 57% and opposed by 8%. The Sun-Herald also reported that New South Wales component of the poll, which had a sample of 551, showed 58% reckoning immigration to be too high, 5% too low and 25% about right. Forty-four per cent rated that “immigration to Australia in recent years” had had a negative impact “on people like you in NSW”, compared with 24% apiece for positive and neutral.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: 50-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. “Emissions for the year to June 2025 are estimated to be 437.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
    equivalent (Mt CO2-e), a decrease of 2.2% (9.9 Mt CO2-e) compared with the previous year. At the sector level, year-on-year changes include:
    • Decreased electricity emissions (down 3.3%; 5.0 Mt CO2-e), reflecting record renewables
    generation and the ongoing displacement of coal;
    • Decreased fugitive emissions (down 4.3%; 2.1 Mt CO2-e), mainly due to reductions in natural
    gas venting emissions from new carbon capture and storage activities and a decline in production from underground coal mining;
    • Decreased emissions in stationary energy (excluding electricity) (down 2.0%; 2.0 Mt CO2-e),
    reflecting decreased combustion activity;
    • Decreased emissions from industrial processes and product use (down 2.2%; 0.7 Mt
    CO2-e), due primarily to technology and production changes in the chemicals and metals
    sectors;
    • Decreased emissions from agriculture (down 0.6%; 0.5 Mt CO2-e), mainly due to lower
    grazing cattle and sheep numbers partially offset by increased emissions from cropping; and
    • An increase in transport emissions (up 0.3%; 0.3 Mt CO2-e), mainly driven by increases in
    diesel consumption for road transport and domestic aviation activity.”

    “Australia is 50% of the way through the Paris Agreement target period and has generated emissions equivalent to 50% of the emissions budget to 2030”

    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/National%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Inventory%20Quarterly%20Update%20June%202025.pdf

  2. William – on our efforts to tackle climate change, Essential has 36% not enough, 30% about right and 20% too much. You need to amend your paragraph on that above.

  3. “‘Traitor’: US representatives call for Trump envoy Witkoff to be fired after leaked Kremlin call:
    Republicans and Democrats warn Witkoff ‘cannot be trusted’ after reportedly advising officials on peace plan”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/republicans-steve-witkoff-leaked-call-russia-ukraine

    A handful of US representatives have reacted furiously to a leaked recording in which the special envoy to Ukraine reportedly coached Moscow on how to handle Donald Trump, but most have so far remained mute on the revelation that American officials were advising a US adversary.

    Don Bacon, a Republican representative, called for Steve Witkoff’s immediate dismissal. “For those who oppose the Russian invasion and want to see Ukraine prevail as a sovereign & democratic country, it is clear that Witkoff fully favors the Russians,” the Nebraska lawmaker wrote on X.

    “He cannot be trusted to lead these negotiations. Would a Russian paid agent do less than he? He should be fired.”

    Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican wrote that the leak represented “a major problem” and “one of the many reasons why these ridiculous side shows and secret meetings need to stop”. He urged that the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, be allowed to “do his job in a fair and objective manner”.

    Democratic representative Ted Lieu went further, calling Witkoff an “actual traitor,” and adding: “Steve Witkoff is supposed to work for the United States, not Russia.”

    Witkoff (of Russian ancestry himself) coached Russian officials in how to play US President Trump to get outcomes favourable for Russia. If that is not treason, what is? By Trump’s own moral code, Witkoff deserves the death penalty.

  4. Mavis
    Tosspot Toby may well have died on the toilet.
    He was holidaying at the Hydro-Majestic, Meadlow Bath and press reports say he was found dead in his suite’s bathroom.
    (There was another story that he died in the resort’s steam room, not a safe place if you are 150kgs)

    Last time I was there, the receptionist said the story was well known among guests but management had decided against a plaque.

  5. Question to anyone who knows – the latest Essential poll has 6% undecided. From past experience how would that 6% be spread amongst the various parties at an election? Are they less likely to vote for the Govt, more likely to vote for the Opposition or more likely to vote for the other 2 major parties (One Nation/Greens) or Independents? I assume the primary votes of Labor,LNP, One Nation and Greens are higher once the 6% undecided voters are distributed?

  6. Good morning, all.

    The bad news, the good news, the bad news and the good news from the hailstone state.

    BiL was caught in a car on the road.

    Bad news: his car smashed up by hailstones as big as tennis balls. Car a write off.
    Good news: it was a hire car.
    Bad news: he was in a hire car because his home had been broken into and his car stolen.
    Good news: the police recovered his own car undamaged.

    ps Do not mention anthropogenic climate change to this particular BiL. Crime rates? No problemo!

  7. ‘Kirsdarke says:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 7:27 am

    Horrific fire in Hong Kong yesterday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/26/hong-kong-fire-tai-po-towers

    36 dead so far with 279 reported missing.’
    ======================
    Yes, just terrible. The photo on the front page of the Guardian does a good job of showing the human suffering side of the tragedy.

    Unfortunately, life is cheap in the land of tofu dreg. It is quite common for fire sprinkler systems in new buildings not to be connected to the mains. At all.

  8. From William’s intro:

    ‘…preferred Liberal leader, recording Sussan Ley at 14% (up one on last month), Jacinta Nampijinpa Price at 11% (up one), Andrew Hastie at 8% (down two), Angus Taylor at 5% (down two), Tim Wilson at 5% (up two), Allegra Spender at 2% (down two), somebody else at 10% (down two) and unsure at 45% (up three).’
    ——————-
    I enjoyed a quiet chuckle. Price is ahead of both Hastie and Taylor! Robert Menzies, roll over in your grave!

    That said, a pattern I believe I may have picked up is that that Albanese’s PPM and NetSats are off the back of much lower levels of uncertainty than those for Ley. There is plenty of possible upside for Ley to pick up on both if she manages to harvest the unsures.

  9. When I saw the images of the high rise fire in Hong kong, I initially didn’t think they were genuine images. It looked apocalyptic.

    I couldn’t believe how a fire could get so out of control.

    Then I see they had bamboo scaffolding and plastic wrap around building . Wtf?!

  10. Meanwhile

    Two National Guardsmen have been killed in a shooting a few blocks away from the White House in Washington DC
    “West Virginia will never forget their service or their sacrifice, and we will demand full accountability for this horrific act,” says the state governor
    A suspect has been taken into custody and the scene is secured, police say
    US President Donald Trump says the suspect is “severely wounded”
    Three victims were earlier transported to hospital, according to emergency response officials – the identity of the third victim is unclear

  11. Good Morning! Here’s Your Thursday News and Views Roundup

    Australia records biggest annual drop in emissions outside pandemic
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-records-biggest-annual-drop-in-emissions-outside-pandemic-20251126-p5niok.html

    Australia’s emissions from fossil fuels down as electricity from renewables passes 40%
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/nov/26/australia-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-down

    TagEnergy wants to build a 600-megawatt-hour battery near Naracoorte.
    The local council is concerned it will take up prime agricultural land.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/tagenergy-naracoorte-big-battery-project-concerns-farm-land-sa/106053784

    John Kerry urges Australia to take ‘hard-nosed’ approach with world’s biggest fossil fuel-producing countries at Cop31 Exclusive: Former US secretary of state calls for more demanding steps from Australia as it takes over presidency of next year’s UN climate summit
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/john-kerry-australia-carbon-emitters-cop31-climate-summit

    To defeat the global Goliaths devastating our planet, we must raise an army of Davids. Peter Lewis
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/nov/26/climate-disasters-devastating-planet-collective-action-against-corporations

    Kevin ’07 and Bob Hawke are Australia’s most popular leaders in 40 years. Peter Dutton is dead last
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-was-the-least-popular-leader-at-a-federal-election-in-four-decades-20251125-p5nibo.html

    Should Albanese ‘fight Tories’ harder? Or is blandness a safe bet in a fearful, populist world?
    https://theconversation.com/should-albanese-fight-tories-harder-or-is-blandness-a-safe-bet-in-a-fearful-populist-world-270454

    Nationals leadership contender Matt Canavan has vowed to take the fight to One Nation as his former ally Barnaby Joyce prepares to defect to Pauline Hanson’s party, while Nationals elder statesman Michael McCormack made a last-ditch plea to his former rival to stay.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-s-old-ally-canavan-ready-to-attack-him-as-new-enemy-when-he-defects-to-one-nation-20251126-p5niml.html

    Inflation jump wipes out chances of rate cut – and puts rate hike back on the table
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-jump-wipes-out-chances-of-rate-cut-and-puts-rate-hike-back-on-the-table-20251126-p5nihc.html

    Labor is celebrating a successful year but tough budget choices lie ahead. David Speers
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/albanese-government-budget-repair-tax-reform-inflation-figures/106045644

    The latest inflation figures offer no joy – except to the gas producers whose windfall profits remain largely untouched. The boom in world gas prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to energy companies making out like bandits. Greg Jericho
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/nov/26/the-latest-inflation-figures-offer-no-joy-except-to-the-gas-producers-whose-windfall-profits-remain-largely-untouched

    The Albanese government wants to make it harder for perpetrators of financial abuse to appoint directors without consent and to saddle victims with tax debts.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-26/economic-abuse-coercive-control-government-crackdown-announced/106054094

    Wong’s world: Diplomacy under the shadow of America. By Mark Beeson
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wongs-world-diplomacy-under-the-shadow-of-america,20422

    Albanese and Ley to decide members of ‘secret’ new committee set to scrutinise Aukus – but Greens excluded. No more than seven government MPs will be appointed but Greens and independents will not be included.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/26/albanese-and-ley-to-decide-members-of-secret-new-committee-set-to-scrutinise-aukus-but-greens-excluded

    NACC chief executive apologises to parliament for inaccurate evidence
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-26/nacc-ceo-apologises-for-inaccurate-evidence/106056840

    Labor’s nature laws risk collapse with deal yet to be struck on eve of parliament’s final sitting day
    If Labor cannot reach deal on Thursday, it will mark second time in 12 months that it has failed to secure planned EPBC Act reforms
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/nov/26/labor-nature-laws-greens-parliament-final-sitting-day

    Housing Minister Clare O’Neil read the riot act to bureaucrats failing to deliver Labor’s agenda with speed, according to fresh documents that shed new light on the bumpy rollout of big-spending policies designed to alleviate the nation’s housing shortage.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/o-neil-reads-riot-act-to-agency-as-labor-seeks-to-keep-housing-probe-secret-20251126-p5nikc.html

    Guardian Essential report: climate doom and AI anxiety – Australian Politics podcast
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/nov/26/guardian-essential-report-climate-ai-australian-politics-podcast

    ‘Progress is happening’: gender pay gap narrows but Australian women still earn $28,000 less than men. Western Australian employers reported the biggest pay gap and Tasmanian employers the smallest, but all states reported an improvement, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/nov/26/progress-is-happening-gender-pay-gap-narrows-but-australian-women-still-earn-28000-less-than-men

    New Zealand’s grip on the Bledisloe Cup looks permanent. But in the great economic game they play in heaven, Australia is utterly dominating the Kiwis with mounting evidence the financial gap between the trans-Tasman nations is widening.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-the-game-that-really-matters-australia-is-smashing-nz-20251126-p5nih0.html

    Australia was alerted to millions in suspicious payments to Nauru politicians. Then it signed a $2.5b deal
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-was-alerted-to-millions-in-suspicious-payments-to-nauru-politicians-then-it-signed-a-2-5b-deal-20251126-p5nik7.html

    A booming private Australian security firm that has won contracts with federal law enforcement agencies, the nation’s corruption watchdog, federal departments and AFL clubs is secretly running a security immigration operation on Nauru with a bikie gang-linked contractor and the country’s allegedly corrupt president.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/watchdogs-spent-millions-with-security-firm-linked-to-finks-bikie-gang-20251126-p5niie.html

    ‘Premium prices for a downgrade’: $96.5 million BoM website savaged
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/premium-prices-for-a-downgrade-96-5-million-bom-website-savaged-20251126-p5niis.html

    Israel’s top diplomat in Australia is preparing to leave the country after a posting dominated by the October 7 attacks, acrimony over the war in Gaza and bursts of outright hostility between the Netanyahu and Albanese governments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/israel-s-top-diplomat-prepares-to-depart-after-acrimonious-posting-20251125-p5nibz.html

    Australia’s most notorious fugitive: where is Dezi Freeman? – Full Story podcast
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/nov/26/australias-most-notorious-fugitive-where-is-dezi-freeman-full-story-podcast

    The Sloane effect: Why we can’t stop watching the Liberals. The new NSW Liberal leader will have to perform miracles to hang on to 10 marginal seats, let alone beat a first-term government. But for now, her appeal is she is not Speakman.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-sloane-effect-why-we-can-t-stop-watching-the-liberals-20251126-p5niju.html

    ‘Release it all’: NSW Premier fumes at resurfacing of donation allegations
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/release-it-all-premier-fumes-at-resurfacing-of-donation-allegations-20251125-p5nid7.html

    Queensland Premier David Crisafulli faces a political test on his home turf in Hinchinbrook by-election
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/crisafulli-kap-hitchinbrook-by-election-north-queensland/106054982

    Jeremy Rockliff’s premiership tied to proposed stadium, but his is not the first to push a contentious project
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/hobart-stadium-contentious-projects-not-new-for-tasmania/106031950

    Harveen’s daily trips will be 40 minutes shorter. Here’s how the Melbourne Metro Tunnel will change your commute
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/harveen-s-daily-trips-will-be-40-minutes-shorter-here-s-how-the-metro-tunnel-will-change-your-commute-20251119-p5ngs5.html

    The number of homes sitting empty across Melbourne surged by 16 per cent last year, despite a housing crisis and the government increasing taxes on unused properties.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/number-of-empty-homes-surging-in-three-key-areas-of-melbourne-20251121-p5nhgn.html

    ABM. Anywhere But Melbourne. Apparently, this salty little acronym is now a thing among big money property investors when they’re talking about where to put their dough.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/i-m-hearing-a-salty-little-whisper-about-melbourne-it-s-more-than-a-sydney-wind-up-20251125-p5nifi.html

    Trump push for new congressional maps meets resistance – from both parties
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/us-politics-redistricting-trump-maps

    ‘Traitor’: US representatives call for Trump envoy Witkoff to be fired after leaked Kremlin call
    Republicans and Democrats warn Witkoff ‘cannot be trusted’ after reportedly advising officials on peace plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/republicans-steve-witkoff-leaked-call-russia-ukraine

    Analysis: Who leaked Witkoff’s call advising Kremlin on how to get Trump on side?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/26/who-leaked-steve-witkoff-call-kremlin-trump-analysis

    Americans helping Ukrainian war effort decry US peace plan as a ‘betrayal by Trump’ US volunteers who have poured into Ukraine to help amid war are dismayed by Trump’s continuing pressures on Kyiv
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/26/us-ukrainian-war-effort-trump-peace-plan

    Von der Leyen warns against ‘carving up’ of Ukraine amid crunch US-led talks. Commission president says undermining of sovereign European nation would ‘open the doors for more wars’
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/26/von-der-leyen-warns-against-carving-up-of-sovereign-european-nation-amid-crunch-ukraine-talks

    Von der Leyen: ‘We now have a starting point’ on Ukraine peace deal. European Commission president says “I cannot see any scenario in which European taxpayers alone pay the bill.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-starting-point-on-ukraine-peace-deal-us-donald-trump/

    Rachel Reeves has many problems. She’s realising that her Brexit bind may be the biggest of all
    Rafael Behr
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/26/rachel-reeves-budget-economic-policy-brexit

    A leaked budget shows British politics is still living hand-to-mouth. Embattled Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to finally end the economic doom loop — but it could still swallow her whole.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-budget-tax-rises-leak-rachel-reeves-debt/

    Taiwan announces $61 billion defence budget to defend itself against China
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-26/taiwanese-president-announces-billion-dollar-defence-budget/106056074

    Jakarta overtakes Tokyo as world’s largest city, according to UN
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-25/jakarta-overtakes-tokyo-as-worlds-largest-city/106049122

    Sea level doesn’t rise at the same rate everywhere – we mapped where Antarctica’s ice melt would have the biggest impact
    https://theconversation.com/sea-level-doesnt-rise-at-the-same-rate-everywhere-we-mapped-where-antarcticas-ice-melt-would-have-the-biggest-impact-269788

    Online ‘ghost stores’ capitalising on Christmas and Black Friday sales to lure shoppers, ACCC warns
    Consumers advised to be sceptical about sales season discounts as AI makes it even harder to detect scams
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/nov/26/online-ghost-stores-accc-warning-christmas-black-friday-sales

  12. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Colombian president says oil is ‘at the heart of’ US pressure campaign on Venezuela: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/26/americas/colombia-petro-venezuela-oil-us-latam-intl

    Taiwan to prepare for combat by 2027, president says – as he warns China is preparing to take the country by force: https://news.sky.com/story/taiwan-to-prepare-for-combat-by-2027-president-says-as-he-warns-china-is-preparing-to-take-the-country-by-force-13475504

    Trump on leaked Witkoff-Russia call: He has to “sell Ukraine to Russia”, it’s a dealmaker’s job: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/11/26/8009009/

    U.S. Army secretary warned Ukraine of imminent defeat while pushing initial peace plan: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/us-army-secretary-warned-ukraine-imminent-defeat-pushing-initial-peace-rcna245704

    Chinese researchers simulate large-scale electronic warfare against Elon Musk’s Starlink: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3333523/chinese-researchers-simulate-large-scale-electronic-warfare-against-elon-musks-starlink

    Hundreds feared dead after fire rips through Hong Kong tower blocks: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/26/four-dead-after-fire-rips-through-hong-kong-tower-block/

    Leaked recordings prove Putin is making Trump his puppet: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/leaked-recordings-prove-putin-making-trump-puppet-4066858

    Trump, 79, Has Baffling Plan to Rename the Republican Party After Himself: https://www.thedailybeast.com/tepublican-or-tpublican-trump-79-has-baffling-plan-to-rename-the-republican-party-after-himself/

    FBI’s Frantic Scramble to Redact the Jeffrey Epstein Files Revealed: https://www.thedailybeast.com/fbis-frantic-scramble-to-redact-the-jeffrey-epstein-files-revealed/

    MTG goes on extraordinary rant about Charlie Kirk, Republican men and her resignation: ‘F*** you’: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-charlie-kirk-resignation-b2873166.html

    Trump, 79, Completely Loses It Over Report About His Physical Decline: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-79-completely-loses-it-over-new-york-times-report-about-his-decline/

    GOP Senators Defend Mark Kelly As Pentagon Seeks To Punish Him: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mark-kelly-trump-military_n_69270c07e4b063285311daed

    2 National Guard members dead after shooting near White House: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2-military-personnel-appearing-national-guard-shot-white/story?id=127905871

  13. Australian labor governments bestie the British progressive left aka the Starmer gov last night slapped $50 billion plus Aus dollar figure, of tax on its public etc and the cherry on top was it was all leaked beforehand.

    https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/11/26/uk-budget-raises-taxes-by-26bn-gaining-investor-approval-after-surprise-leak

    Progressive left in pommie land and in the state of Victoria are going out the door backwards.

    Progressive left fed labor gov going same way but slower but heading for the same result.

  14. WB

    For the second month in a row (and in the immediate wake of a similar exercise from Newspoll), the pollster asked respondents to name their preferred Liberal leader, recording Sussan Ley at 14% (up one on last month), Jacinta Nampijinpa Price at 11% (up one), Andrew Hastie at 8% (down two), Angus Taylor at 5% (down two), Tim Wilson at 5% (up two), Allegra Spender at 2% (down two), somebody else at 10% (down two) and unsure at 45% (up three).

    Punters are saying pox on Liberal house. They don’t like any of the currently mentioned leadership aspirants. These numbers are death knell to Hastie Liberal leadership aspirations and this person wants to emulate Menzies.
    45% think they don’t like any of them. Hence Melissa McIntosh is making play by throwing Christmas parties while Ley was hosting Christmas drinks for journalists.

  15. SLsays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 7:13 am
    “Emissions for the year to June 2025 are estimated to be 437.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide

    ____________________________________

    By my calc, now that we have a full 2 years of safeguard mechanism in place:

    – Cumulative SM emissions reductions: down 2.93% (excluding land use)
    – Cumulative Carbon Tax emissions reductions: down 2.80% (excluding land use)

    So provably better (and more popular) policy.

    [Interestingly, no updates to land use data, must be no national inventories updates yet]

  16. Trump, 79, Completely Loses It Over Report About His Physical Decline: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-79-completely-loses-it-over-new-york-times-report-about-his-decline/

    This is the article in the NYT that inspired the spit by Trump:

    Shorter Days, Signs of Fatigue: Trump Faces Realities of Aging in Office
    President Trump has always used his stamina and energy as a political strength. But that image is getting harder for him to sustain.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-age-health.html

  17. HH
    Trump, 79, Has Baffling Plan to Rename the Republican Party After Himself: https://www.thedailybeast.com/tepublican-or-tpublican-trump-79-has-baffling-plan-to-rename-the-republican-party-after-himself/

    So it is to be the Trump Republicans.

    When the Democrats first formed they were the Jacksonian Democrats.
    It would be a tough call over who was more ignorant and disinhibited between Old Hickory and Trump.
    Maybe Old Hickory for his ethnic cleansing of the South East Indians and creating the word OK (which he is supposed to have put on cabinet briefs for “Ouwl Korrect” – although this was likely a story put about by his opponents)


  18. SLsays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 7:13 am
    “Emissions for the year to June 2025 are estimated to be 437.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
    equivalent (Mt CO2-e), a decrease of 2.2% (9.9 Mt CO2-e) compared with the previous year. At the sector level, year-on-year changes include:
    • Decreased electricity emissions (down 3.3%; 5.0 Mt CO2-e), reflecting record renewables
    generation and the ongoing displacement of coal;
    • Decreased fugitive emissions (down 4.3%; 2.1 Mt CO2-e), mainly due to reductions in natural
    gas venting emissions from new carbon capture and storage activities and a decline in production from underground coal mining;
    • Decreased emissions in stationary energy (excluding electricity) (down 2.0%; 2.0 Mt CO2-e),
    reflecting decreased combustion activity;
    • Decreased emissions from industrial processes and product use (down 2.2%; 0.7 Mt
    CO2-e), due primarily to technology and production changes in the chemicals and metals
    sectors;
    • Decreased emissions from agriculture (down 0.6%; 0.5 Mt CO2-e), mainly due to lower
    grazing cattle and sheep numbers partially offset by increased emissions from cropping; and
    • An increase in transport emissions (up 0.3%; 0.3 Mt CO2-e), mainly driven by increases in
    diesel consumption for road transport and domestic aviation activity.”

    “Australia is 50% of the way through the Paris Agreement target period and has generated emissions equivalent to 50% of the emissions budget to 2030”

    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/National%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Inventory%20Quarterly%20Update%20June%202025.pdf

    “Decreased electricity emissions (down 3.3%; 5.0 Mt CO2-e), reflecting record renewables
    generation and the ongoing displacement of coal;”

    This puts a big hole in L-NP so called energy plan because coal is definitely being replaced by Renewable energy and shows that they are making sh*t up just to tow Big Gina’s line and come to power.


  19. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 8:21 am
    pied piper trying to sound like a Daily Mail journo. Lol. More like Daily Fail.

    PP sounds more like someone from Russian or Chinese troll factory. 🙂
    Let us get it straight. PP is MAGA.

  20. “’Teaching murderers how to talk to Trump’ – Ukrainians react to bombshell Witkoff leak”
    https://kyivindependent.com/outrage-disgust-but-little-surprise-ukraine-reacts-to-bombshell-witkoff-leak/

    “It shows that Witkoff effectively became the Kremlin’s key to the White House and, in this case, is acting more as a partner of Russia than as a neutral negotiator,” Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker for the European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent.

    Pavlo Kazarin, a sergeant at a combat drone company in the 104th Territorial Defense Brigade, suggested that the U.S. under Trump is “run by people convinced that politics follows the same rules as the real estate business.”

    “The only real question is whether Trump is willing to admit that those he trusts may not fully be his people — but rather Putin’s people,” Kazarin told the Kyiv Independent…

    … “To me it looks like collusion between Mr. Witkoff and the Russians,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “Mr. Witkoff’s statements and actions discredit the U.S. president and, perhaps, should be investigated.”

    In Ukraine, where soldiers have been fighting off Russia’s all-out invasion for nearly four years, the response was far more visceral.

    Petro, a serviceman at the 38th Marine Brigade, summarized the apparent revelations as “disgusting.”

    “Witkoff is teaching murderers how to talk to Trump properly?… If he’s advising them, then there’s every chance Trump will help the Russians,” he said.

    Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a lawmaker for the Holos opposition party, noted that “Witkoff had already been discredited in Ukraine even before this — as a businessman and a partner of Russian pro-Putin oligarchs.”

    The latest news only confirmed that Witkoff acts in Moscow’s interests, he added…

    … Danylo Lubkivskyi, head of the Kyiv Security Forum, said that, even if the U.S. seeks to act as a mediator, “the tone of these conversations — where Witkoff, in essence, advises Ushakov on how to protect Russian interests — is difficult to interpret as friendly or impartial behavior.”…

    … “In Ukraine, few ever doubted that the ‘peace plan’ was a Russian design,” Ariev said.


  21. Freedomsays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 7:33 am
    Question to anyone who knows – the latest Essential poll has 6% undecided. From past experience how would that 6% be spread amongst the various parties at an election?

    Do you think that they will break for ON? 🙂


  22. Spencesays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 8:32 am
    ABC reporting agreement with Greens on EPBC Act changes.

    What about Senators Pocock, Payman and Thorpe?
    How will they vote on this one?

  23. I can understand why peeps on here are to ashamed to put up on the daily articles postings any details about Albos besties budget in pommie land.

    Just sayin….
    Btw Claire bear instead of bagging her staff on housing ,should cut visas/ immigration numbers aka demand instead.
    Any chance overstayers can be booted?

    Ahhh the progressive left!

  24. All of the teal and most Indies will support the changes. Presumably LNP and their friends in ON will oppose.
    Well done Minister Watt and Sarah Hanson-Young.

  25. So Witkoff has Russian ancestry?

    Zbigniew Brzezinski was POTUS Jimmy Carter NSA. He was Carter top foreign policy advisor. His ancestry is Russian. A lot of Russians migrated to late 100s and early 1900s.

  26. Witkoff is in Putin’s pocket. A traitorous piece of crap.
    He is definitely not looking out for interest of the USA Europe, and obviously Ukraine.
    And yes he has business ties and ancestry with Russia.

  27. A populous city in India’s northwest will usher in a new century of elite sport after officially being selected to host the 2030 Centenary Commonwealth Games.
    Amdavad, formerly known as Ahmedabad, is a city in the state of Gujarat and was confirmed as the host after Commonwealth member nations and territories ratified India’s bid at a general assembly in Glasgow.

  28. Bizzcan

    “LULUCF emissions are held constant at the levels from the most recent National Inventory Report and include the application of the IPCC’s natural disturbance provision.”

    ie. They are held constant in the quarterly updates and only adjusted annually.

  29. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 8:50 am
    A populous city in India’s northwest will usher in a new century of elite sport after officially being selected to host the 2030 Centenary Commonwealth Games.
    Amdavad, formerly known as Ahmedabad, is a city in the state of Gujarat and was confirmed as the host after Commonwealth member nations and territories ratified India’s bid at a general assembly in Glasgow.

    ______________________

    Excellent to hear. With recent prospective and actual host cities showing strong cultural preferences to fencing and other sword-based sports, India will bring back the neglected target shooting to the roster.

  30. A good day – a deal and sensible deal done with the Greens on the environment bill, and Arsenal is top of the Champions League after beating Bayern Munich 3-1.

    SHY, unlike Bandt, is talking up the deal and putting the boot to the Coalition instead of whinging about Labor. Unlike their stans here, it appears the parliamentary Greens HAVE learned and can negotiate so good signs there.

  31. @Victoria – “When I saw the images of the high rise fire in Hong kong, I initially didn’t think they were genuine images. It looked apocalyptic.

    I couldn’t believe how a fire could get so out of control.

    Then I see they had bamboo scaffolding and plastic wrap around building . Wtf?! ”

    Safety rules are not red tape.

    Building costs more over here but the flip side is this stuff doesn’t happen here.

  32. Morning all. Thanks for the roundups Cat and HH. On the lead-in poll, like others I find it hard not to laugh that, despite Ley’s popularity being low, there is no sign of a Liberal leadership challenger who is any more popular. Whoever that guy “Unsure” is, they have it sewn up 🙂

    When Keating lost office, the reality for Labor was that their next PMs were not yet in parliament. Rudd and Gillard were both made MPs in the 1998 election.

    The Liberal party is probably in the same position.

  33. The big (political) story of the day is Labor finally doing a deal with the Greens on the environment, but I guess this is the one will grab the crustie’s attention:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/nov/26/australia-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-down

    The headline certainly makes it sounds good: “Australia’s emissions from fossil fuels down as electricity from renewables passes 40%”

    While this is good news, the reality is that it is simply not good enough – i.e. we are still not on track even to meet Labor’s original paltry emissions target, let alone their big shiny new one:

    It is unlikely the drop in emissions will be enough to put Australia on track to meet its climate targets.

    According to the latest data, annual emissions to June were 437.5m tonnes – 28.5% below 2005 levels.
    Albanese’s Oprah-style emissions target aims to please almost everyone but risks falling short on climate action

    It is expected that an emissions projection report, also to be released on Thursday, will estimate the government’s policies will leave it short but still within reach of where it needs to be to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target – a 43% cut compared with 2005 levels.

    The Climate Change Authority last year estimated reaching the target would require emissions to be cut by 15m tonnes a year over the next five years.

    The projections report will show the government is much further behind meeting its recently announced 2035 target – a cut of between 62% and 70% below 2005 levels.

    It means Labor will need to revamp existing policies and introduce new measures to get to even the bottom end of this commitment.

    “Hasn’t the weather been strange lately?”

  34. I know all parties change leaders when their popularity fades, but the current crop of changes amongst the right wingers makes no sense.

    Their problems are not leadership, although in some cases the leaders don’t inspire. Their problems are the right wing religious takeover and the fact that the majority of Australians don’t want these types telling us how to live our lives.

  35. This likely will be the last day of question time for Sussan Ley as leader of the federal liberal party, before she gets replaced in early February 2026

  36. Looks like sanity at last on the environmental laws. Was somebody stalling the timing of this outcome for political effect?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-27/labor-strikes-greens-deal-to-end-environmental-stalemate/106054928

    “ To get the Greens on board, Labor offered to add “high-risk land clearing” and regional forest agreements to the national laws, rather than leaving them to states. The move will take effect within 18 months, rather than three years as proposed by Labor in an earlier bargaining offer.

    Coal and gas projects will also need to receive federal approval for their water use and will not be eligible for “fast-tracking”.

  37. SHY, unlike Bandt, is talking up the deal and putting the boot to the Coalition instead of whinging about Labor. Unlike their stans here, it appears the parliamentary Greens HAVE learned and can negotiate so good signs there.

    I think we also need to give credit to our Prime Minister and Larissa Waters. Whatever happened yesterday when they sat down together to talk appears to have broken the log jam. The PM will give most of the credit to Murray Watt and Sarah Hanson-Young but he’s been doing the negotiating stuff, behind the Speaker’s Chair, and as PM, successfully both here and overseas, if you want to take off your partisan hat for a moment, for a very long time. he’s very, very good at it. And, don’t forget, he chose Larissa Waters for the one on one, and she accepted. So, kudos to both of them. Do you think we might have adult government in this country at last? I do.

  38. C@tmommasays:

    I think we also need to give credit to our Prime Minister and Larissa Waters. Whatever happened yesterday when they sat down together to talk appears to have broken the log jam. The PM will give most of the credit to Murray Watt and Sarah Hanson-Young but he’s been doing the negotiating stuff, behind the Speaker’s Chair, and as PM, successfully both here and overseas, if you want to take off your partisan hat for a moment, for a very long time. he’s very, very good at it.
    ________________________________
    And to think there were people who thought Albo would be a disaster! Littlefinger wouldn’t have got anywhere near 94 seats.

  39. GA really needs to do better.

    With the Environment Protection Reform Bills, there was no “weeks long stand off” and “risk of collapse” and all the other crap Mr Jervis Brady wrote. The negotiations were actually quite speedy given there was ~600 pages (iirc) of complex legislation presented only 2-3 weeks ago.

    With the emissions data, Mr Morton can make shit up like, “It is unlikely the drop in emissions will be enough to put Australia on track to meet its climate targets.” Or he can report what the actual figures say:

    “Australia is 50% of the way through the Paris Agreement target period and has generated emissions equivalent to 50% of the emissions budget to 2030. Cumulatively, over the 20 quarters since the start of the budget period, Australia has emitted 2,216 Mt CO2-e, leaving 2,178 Mt CO2-e remaining.”

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