The quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has the Liberals at 34%, down four points on the August poll and six points on the July election result; Labor on 25%, respectively up one and down one; and the Greens on 17%, respectively up four and up three. A leadership rating question that invited respondents to rate the leaders on a ten-point scale found 33% giving Jeremy Rockliff a rating of seven or more, 25% a neutral rating of four to six, and 34% an unfavourable rating of zero to three. Josh Willie scores 16% positive, 34% neutral and 20% unfavourable. Nineteen per cent had never heard of Willie, compared with 2% for Rockliff. The poll was conducted November 17 to 21 from a sample of 1000.
There was also a Tasmanian poll a month ago from DemosAU which found little change from the election result, with the Liberals on 41%, Labor on 24%, the Greens on 15%, independents on 14%, Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 2% and others on 4%. Jeremy Rockliff held a 46-34 lead over Josh Willie on preferred premier. Personal ratings had Jeremy Rockliff on 39% for positive, 27% for neutral and 34% for negative, with Josh Willie on 21%, 53% and 26% respectively. Further results for a range of state political figures, together with demographic breakdowns on voting intention, can be found in the accompanying release. The poll was conducted October 16 to 27 from a sample of 1021.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Tasmanian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Go the Greens
my articles on these:
EMRS https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/emrs-liberals-slip-but-labor-again.html
DemosAU https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/demosau-liberals-increase-lead-ahead-of.html
Used to be a time (circa mid-2010s) when Tasmanian polls getting released was a much bigger event than it is now, though I did do one media interview re this EMRS.
Highlights the disaster of labor going for a election earlier.
Trading while insolvent.
I mean what can you say. Labor shot their load. Unpopular governing party but no prospect of an election for years even with a minority government because the electorate will not vote Labor into government.
What a shemozzle. Seriously. TasLabor need to be shut down and governed from Federal Labor for a few years.
Tassie politics is fabulous. No-one can win an election so the parliamentarians may actually be forced to do what they are supposed to do – govern for all Tasmanians.
Meanwhile the AFL has bankrupted the State!
To the AFL: build the stadium yourselves, you can afford it – and then the Tassie government can build schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Go on! I dare you.
The incompetent decision to force an election is one of Labor’s biggest failures. It seems like they went into the election with no actual plan to win the election and how to govern if they did, and instead just handed over another term to the Liberals, while giving them a free pass over the state bankrupting AFL deal and the massive deficit it is creating.
The AFL is laughing all the way to the bank.
And now Tasgov has credit downgrade. And MSM biitching about Vic Labor but not a peep about insolvent Tasmania and the architect of it, Erica Betts.
All Australians will pay if Tasgov can’t pay its bills. All for a stadium that can’t possibly work.
20000 is 10% of Hobart’s population. They all have to be at the game on Saturday afternoon and pay the AFL’s gate fee. Who will do police duty? Who will staff the hospitals?
And no, you can’t fit 20000 people onto a couple of scheduled 737s which one assumes are fairly full anyway. And QF and VA aren’t going to be adding flights for a contingent possibility that a team someone wants to see play is going to be on at Hobart.
Omg when it comes to the stadium people turn the brains off. The AFL will be pumping at least $20 000 000 a year into the new team. Which will go into the Tasmanian economy. It will increase tourism, more money coming in. Tasmanian can not afford to not build the stadium. If you would rather that money go to another jurisdiction which is happy to take the money then fine, maybe the ACT could be the 19th team.
Jacabin
How you gunna get 20000 people into that stadium. Explain. Seriously it’s a disaster. How will the AFL ‘spend’ $20m a year in Tas? Fantasy and laughable.
How will there be more tourists? That laughable boat that doesn’t fit? Or the only 7 flights of around 100 seats from Melbourne to Hobart that arrive on a Saturday before the game starts? And those flights presumably already have people on them, otherwise the planes wouldn’t be flying for long.
The AFL won’t be “pumping” anything that isn’t gigantically dwarfed by the massive costs that have been imposed on the Tassie/Australian public to pay for the Liberals gift.
The AFL distribution of the money it gets from mostly from tv rights to the clubs. The poorest clubs get about 20 000 000, while the wealthy clubs like Collingwood get about half that. The Devil’s and Tasmanian cricket will also both pay rent on the stadium. The irrationally hatred of sports and money is clearly in the DNA of the Greens.
From memory the report into the stadium found the return on investment was 56 cents in the $1
Jacabin says:
Wednesday, November 26, 2025 at 6:06 pm
The AFL distribution of the money it gets from mostly from tv rights to the clubs. The poorest clubs get about 20 000 000, while the wealthy clubs like Collingwood get about half that. The Devil’s and Tasmanian cricket will also both pay rent on the stadium. The irrationally hatred of sports and money is clearly in the DNA of the Greens.
________________________
What does the last alleged sentence have to do with the rest of your comment?
Sounds like someone has “an irrationally hatred of” the Greens.
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The election result was amazing. The majority of the population are supposedly opposed to the stadium and yet Labor and Libs, both pro stadium hold the most seats. Reconciling those competing arguments is an interesting exercise.
Labor will win the next Tasmania election, The Liberals are unpopular and Rockliff is less popular than Jacinta Allan based on what I heard from some people who live in Hobart, the stadium is not wanted or needed.
Daniel T
“The Liberals are unpopular and Rockliff is less popular than Jacinta Allan based on what I heard from some people who live in Hobart. . .”
Er, you for real?
So the polls from EMRS and DemosAU in the article above are fake, then?
And the Newspoll for Victoria released earlier in the week showing Jacinta Allan on net -42% ‘favourability’ compared to Jeremy Rockcliff’s -1% and +5% in the two polls above?
Even my leftie greenie mates who volunteered on indie and Greens campaigns in Tassie think Jeremy Rockliff is a better person and leader than Dean Winter was. It’s hard to underestimate just how reviled Winter was or how badly he behaved before, during and after the election.
Labor didn’t have a plan to win, forced an election then didn’t want to take power after it even though they clearly could have had the numbers with a different attitude. Tas Labor shouldn’t exist if it doesn’t want to govern and hopefully in a few years they won’t.
Well, that’s not quite right. Hopefully in a few years they can be the minority partner in a government made up of Greens and indies – an alliance that is clearly already larger than them in seats and is larger than them in votes in at least 2 of the electorates.
Daniel Tsays:
Wednesday, November 26, 2025 at 9:21 pm
“Labor will win the next Tasmania election,”
Reminds me of the post you made predicting a Labor win this year for the same main reasons.
Daniel Tsays:
Thursday, July 3, 2025 at 11:01 am
“The Libs/Nats have not won a 5th term or more at any juristiction in this country since Joh in QLD. It won’t happen. The stadium, the Libs are unpopular.”
Daniel Tsays:
Friday, July 18, 2025 at 11:03 pm
“The keys are wrong yet again, the Tassie economy is doing poorly, inflation and lack of affordable housing.”
Pretty unbelievable that with Tasmania’s credit rating downgrade and Chalmers being asked questions about bailing the state out that there’s even the slightest possibility that the stadium will pass the upper house
Hopefully the budget reality hits and it gets voted down. It would be nice to have some honesty from Abetz on how he plans to pay for it, increased taxes on all Tasmanians? That would be a good test of how badly they really want it to go ahead
Vote it down and force the AFL’s hand, they will look terrible if they take the team away imo. Stand up to the bullies
Hard Being Greensays:
Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 7:01 am
[Pretty unbelievable]
That about sums it all up!
Joshsays:
Thursday, November 27, 2025 at 12:29 am
[Even my leftie greenie mates who volunteered on indie and Greens campaigns in Tassie think Jeremy Rockliff is a better person and leader than Dean Winter was. It’s hard to underestimate just how reviled Winter was or how badly he behaved before, during and after the election.]
You wouldn’t be a tad biased would ya ?
Eric Abetz was on RN Breakfast yesterday re the credit downgrade
Sounds like a pretty tough budget coming up in May including “right-sizing the public service” and tax increases
Defended the stadium and includes and interesting Freudian Slip
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/tasmanian-credit/106056864
@Goll, I dislike the Labor Party intensely but I know my opinion is not held by most greenie leftie types generally. I think that was different in Tasmania this year, specifically while Winter was leader and Rockliff led the Libs. It was a very specific dynamic.