The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll conducted hot on the heels (possibly a little too hot) of the Liberals’ leadership change on Tuesday, with 1030 respondents surveyed between Tuesday and Thursday. The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, in line with recent results from other pollsters but a significant shift on the 53-47 Labor lead recorded at the last Victorian state Newspoll in June. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down seven), Coalition 36% (up one) and Greens 14% (up two). Jacinta Allan records diabolical personal ratings of 26% approval (down four) and 68% disapproval (up seven), while Jess Wilson debuts at 32% and 31%, and holds a 47-33 lead as preferred premier. The poll found respondents deeply concerned about housing (82% “worried”), law and order (81%), state debt (76%) and hospitals (69%). Law and order was rated most important of the four at 42%, with 23% opting for housing, 16% for state debt and 14% for hospitals.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I wonder if the ALP will consider their own leadership switch from Jacinta? Or is it too baked in at this point?
I believe they will consider it if Jacinta Allan’s numbers don’t improve in the new year.
Notahorse @ #2 Saturday, November 22nd, 2025 – 8:30 am
What’s in the best interest of the party?
They are Battin numbers we will see how libs Dei hire, whose first impressions in pressers has been terrible goes.
Massive pressure on libs now given Battin was +16 and had labor on the rack in Victoria.
Labor would be very happy as they were gone.
Lots of angry Victorian libs including rank and file who will undermine VIC lib new leader.
Still 12 months to election.
Those personal approval numbers are dire for Jacinta. I can’t see how you can overturn them. And I think even the self destructive Victorian liberals should be able to stay disciplined for eight months. Maybe.
I don’t think Jacinta can last, she’s at best 50/50 to hold her seat. There’s a reason the only federal seat to swing against Labor in the state was Bendigo. Her lack of any charisma or personality hurts her. Need someone not so tied in with the Dan era to lead the way.
Around the traps, Ben Carroll’s name keeps popping up.
Whilst I believe Jacinta Allan is a good operator, she is considered as continuing Andrews agenda.
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
A new team will make Vic labor competitive.
Would you necessarily be wanting a by election for Bendigo East eight or less months out from the election proper?
Jacinta has served 25 years in Parliament so should do pretty well financially out of a personal reasons/spend more time with family retirement, but if the machine doesn’t push her, why wouldn’t she stay to see big build & Co. come to fruition,win an election off her own bat and then retire completely on her own terms in 2027.
It’s not like the Lib/nats are going to win next year with what they have to offer.
Remember Pessuto was in front when Mr Invisible Batten took over !
Although Ben Carroll might seem like the obvious choice, he is not that well liked in the Labor Caucus. His attempt to grab the role when Andrews quit which caused a bit of chaos of a day won him few admires.
And there is a push for Gabriel Williams to take over instead by the left. She is currently Transport and Infrastructure minister. With the opening of the new metro and West Gate tunnel she is likely to be in the media a lot in coming weeks.
I struggle to understand how Jacinta Allan is so unpopular, while the poll is 49-51. Is it because she’s a woman? She hasn’t made any huge mistakes. The biggest issue for her has been law and order which she has now neutralised. Most people aren’t worried about debt these days, or at least it’s not top of mind. Other than that she just seems to get on with the job. She mightn’t be charismatic but why would that lead to disapproval?
I wonder if the ALP will consider their own leadership switch from Jacinta? Or is it too baked in at this point?
What’s in the best interest of the party?
@Grime
Agreed. It’s not in the best interest of the party to pursue changing leaders like changing underpants. The problem is when it’s the politician’s necks that’s on the line, self-interest takes over rationality, and they will try anything.
It’s one poll, and it’s a honeymoon poll that has the Liberals ahead 51-49. . So it’s too soon to be considering this, which they shouldn’t be in my opinion. Some of the Labor state governments (VIC, QLD, SA, WA) have done well to avoid the past mistakes that Labor have made federally – in terms of not treating the leadership as a plaything.
The lib/nats combined primary vote around 36% , not forming any type of government
The key question is that while Jessica Wilson is a moderate on paper, does the Conservative faction have the numbers in the Legislative Assembly to dictate policy to the extent that she is a mere figurehead like Turnbull?
If so, I will hold my nose and vote for her; if not, I will have to go with One Nation, although grudgingly, I will preference the Liberals over Labor as the lesser of two evils. After all, Ms Wilson has a record of supporting the Voice and euthanasia. At the very least, she should make a pledge NOW to cancel the Suburban Rail Link and build the East-West tollway.
Adamsays:
Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 10:03 am
The biggest issue for her has been law and order which she has now neutralised.
_______________________
Neuralised ?
Her new laws haven’t even been written yet. We want to see more than an announceable.
Also if the ban on Face Coverings Bill is any guide expect to see a very watered down version of her announceable by the time the legislation makes it to Parliament in APRIL.
Metro tunnel opening next weekend. One year early.
Westgate tunnel not long after.
The Westgate was delayed due to dispute regarding contaminated soil.
Next year public transport will be free to all under 18.
Kindergarten is already free. Families have real savings in the thousands of dollars.
This new policy re youth crime is a very good move.
I’m very pleased they saw sense and have gone down this path.
———
The Allan Labor Government will invest an initial $19.8 million to establish the Violence Reduction Unit (VRU), and a further $7.7 million for youth mentors, including the first VRU program to connect kids with reformed offenders.
Our VRU is based directly on the Violence Reduction Unit model in Glasgow and London, which successfully reduced violent crime over time by targeting the problems early. It will report directly to the Premier and:
use police intelligence and data to find and address the root causes of violent crime
coordinate all existing crime prevention programs across Government
take a different approach, and engage directly with the community and young people
develop and deliver new programs to address gaps and emerging crime trends – with the first VRU program about connecting at-risk kids with mentors who are former youth offenders now living positive lives
Jacinta Allan has two problems.
1) She doesn’t treat the press with the contempt they deserve. That was Andrews strength.
2) There is a reasonable percentage of the electorate that are misogynistic, when it comes to premier being a women.
Well the Liberals threw away advantage 2.
Contempt for the press is a problem for women. It is a lot harder for a women to dismiss their nonsense with the contempt it deserves.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jacinta Allan step down in the next week or two and move to the backbench before retiring at the election next year.
My pick to take over would clearly be Sonya Kilkenny from the SL faction. Extremely personable.
Ben Carroll will never be embraced by Victorians, much like Bill Shorten. Don’t do it Labor.
Frednk
100 percent
This is what Steve Price has to say in the Herald Scum. lol.
——-
Price: You’re kidding yourself if you think Jacinta views Jess as a threat
Fresh-faced rookie Jess Wilson is up against Jacinta Allan’s well-oiled Labor machine and its social-media juggernaut — and, trust me Jess, it’s going to get ugly.
The age is as bad as the Herald sun.
One of the Liberal spruiker mentioned the sale of the port as a source for funds to modernize the city.
That money was used to deepen the port, so Melbourne could remain a port that could be used by international shipping.
The age spent the entire build period campaigning against the works. Remember the ecological disaster nonsense they want on and on with.
The Age is supposed to be a paper supporting business, as the Liberals once were supposed to be the party hat looked after business interest. To remain an international city the port needed to be deepened. Fortunately there was as Labor government in power and they just got on with it.
The truth now is, Labor supports workers and supports business because workers need jobs. The Liberals are away with cultural war fairies. Totally irrelevant to the thing that is most important to most people. Raising a family.
Frednk
I’ve been off the Age for years now. The whole media landscape in Victoria is cooked
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 10:48 am
Ben Carroll will never be embraced by Victorians, much like Bill Shorten. Don’t do it Labor.
_______________________
He reminds me of Christopher Pyne for some reason.
Yep.Little Chipolata at The Age has had a wild week banging away on his keyboard about all the happenings in Victoria.Trouble is he is mostly fed by people supposedly in the know at Lib land HQ but they have to speak off the record to protect their arses, sorry snouts from excommunication.
The public spruikers, I would surmise have much in common with each-other and enjoy having their egos stroked by the Murdoch crew.
Then there are:
*Anti vaxers persistently mouthing off to all on social media about their discredited theories even to the extent of persuading their elderly parents not to have their yearly flu shots.Better they die than have truth serum injected into their bodies.
*Orstralians who live in Orstraylia but insist they have no duty to abide by the conventions of the country which generally lead to good order.
* Religious zealots from all over the planet.
*Spivs & Rent seekers from all persuasions.
Apart from that everyone else is more than happy to whinge and complain as true Aussies do.
But they aren’t completely stupid when it comes to knowing which side has the jam on it,and that isn’t the Libs.
The Others/Independents in the Newspoll received 22% primary vote. It is safe to assume the majority of that 22% would be a One Nation primary vote.
It would be interesting to know what was the preference flow Newspoll used for the 22% Other/Independent primary vote because the One Nation preference flows would strongly flow to the Coalition ahead of both Labor and Greens which implies the 51-49 2PP to the Coalition might be drastically understated. It could be in the range of 53/54 -47/46 in favour of the Coalition.
Why is Allan unpopular? It is a lack of charisma. Plus Allan doesn’t seem to be enjoying the role. I am sure there are parts of it that she probably enjoys but it never comes across. On the crime issue, she has failed to show enough empathy to the victims.
People only want to keep you there if you look like you want to be there.
Some people here are looking at Victoria through their personal politics, and not at what’s happening.
1) since 1979, every sitting Victorian government has suffered a swing, except 2018.
2) this is an ageing government, people say it’s doing infrastructure, okay many Victorian are seeing crumbling roads and only 18% of trams are accessible for disabled people.
3) economy is slowing and unemployment is creeping higher.
4) state finances in trouble and no clear plan for fixing it.
5) backlash against planning policies that look to be more about developers than building local communities.
6) Jacinta Allan is a one trick pony, she has fallen into the Morrison trap of playing dress ups.
7) Jacinta hasn’t done anything to put a stamp on government.
8) crime was allowed to become a big issue after softening bail laws.
Landlord of the Year @ #27 Saturday, November 22nd, 2025 – 1:32 pm
Ok,fine but tell us what the opposition has up it’s sleeve and can do better?
You can’t because they don’t have any sort of plan apart from whinging what a terrible government is running the show,and that’s been their clarion call for the best part of 10 plus years.
Of course people are looking at this through their personal politics,how else can you expect those people to weigh up both sides and make a judgement call come the election.
Simple case of doing the same thing over and over expecting a different outcome comes to mind.
@Landlordoftheyear You have some really strong points. I think the one thing people must agree on is she is a very lacklustre public performer. She comes across as having little conviction. Also Labor has been in power for 23 of 27 years, so their time is very much up from a historical perspective. Vic Liberal distancing themselves from Federal Liberal should seal the result.
Meanwhile in positive news. It’s always good to see
———-
Melbourne is back in the car business due to the opening of a new $114 million Walkinshaw Group facility in Dandenong South and a renewed interest in the sector, as seen with the return of the Melbourne Motor Show and the growing sales at precincts like Essendon Fields. The new facility expands Walkinshaw’s capacity for vehicle re-manufacturing and left-hand-drive to right-hand-drive conversions, a move that creates jobs and boosts the automotive supply chain.
It was a merger of their other operations into one location.
Victoria is an economic basketcase a failed leftie debt ridden social mess.
Highest unemployment for a long time and rating downgrades and a massive interest bill on the massive increasing debt.
Very ugly decisions that need to be taken by a mass cull of the public disservice will not happen under the public sector union dominated state labor gov rabble.
@pied piper As a Labor man it saddens me to say you’re right. The adoration of Dan for making us the most locked down city always seemed weird to me, even when his reasoning lacked reason in lockdowns 3, 4 and 5. The economy has never recovered and with crazy ideas like the Suburban rail network it never will.
Pied piper and Luke
You need to try harder. The stench of your bullshit is strong
Jacinta Allan will never cut through. Labor seriously is cooked, their is no one else at present and they are heading for a bad loss next year. They have been arrogant this term and have been making mistakes.
They need some time out of government and they need people whom are not union hacks.
“I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jacinta Allan step down in the next week or two and move to the backbench before retiring at the election next year.”
Unlike her near-namesake in New Zealand, unfortunately (for Labor) Jacinta Allan does not have the foresight to leave when the writing is plainly on the wall to everyone else.
Bring back Kennett with enhanced chest hair!
I wouldn’t write Allan off just yet, it’s just the fact that the correct reaction to 68% disapproval is more “blow the ballast tanks” than “weather the storm” when it comes to politics.
Something big needs to change or it’s curtains one way or another.
Kirsdake : People rarely vote according to policy, Labor in New Zealand got elected as soon as they changed to Jacinta Arden, in Canada change from one leader and struggling in polls to a leader with the same personality and personable looks and yep they got reelected. Allan has no personality and is not personable compared with Lib Leader…
Labor is in deep poo in Victoria with Allan and Carroll is no better.
crispy wedges @ #38 Saturday, November 22nd, 2025 – 7:05 pm
Yeah, you’re probably right. -42 approval ratings is probably below recovery depth. But we’ll have to wait and see how things go in the new year and see how Credlin’s creeps treat Jess Wilson, especially she doesn’t do everything that they want and therefore they cast her down like they’ve done with every leader that doesn’t do what they want and go full MAGA.
That still doesn’t absolve Jacinta Allan in how it got so bad for her personal ratings. I saw them in 2024 and while they were temporarily covered up by Federal Labor’s triumph in May this year, they’re just becoming more obvious now.
What’s a sign that she proactively wants to remain as Premier? And what is she doing to convey that to voters?
Honestly she’s straying further down the path of failed successors Joan Kirner and John Brumby than that of a successful one like Dick Hamer.
If the Victorian Liberals were to gain power at the end of next year, there is a serious possibility that they will produce another chaotic one term government like in 2010-14. They are unlikely to win a very wide majority. Therefore they will need every MP to behaviour themselves so they don’t end up with another Geoff Shaw.
There are too many loons already in the party and a Wilson lead government could easily become beholden to a rough MP or two.
Fairman, do not underestimate this Jess Wilson, i think she is politcally very smart.
She could get them to act like a team and their policies could be done in very co-ordinated and slow process.
Their are two policy areas which could undo them in the years ahead, climate change because Australia has been having alot of wet coolish summers of late and it is due to turn nasty and the next el nino will be a shocker far worse than previous because it is getting hotter. The Libs and Nats do not believe in it and have policies which seriously offer little.
And secondly housing, they do not have a housing policy and never will because their all about exemptons for the wealthy and making them richer. I see Wilson stumbling on these fronts and if i was Labor i would tackle her on climate change because she is in a seat vulnerable to it.
Much of her seat covers the seat of a Federal Independent and the local council just elected a pro climate council majority last year.
@ Victoria So sorry for having an opinion that is slightly different to yours. Your more than entitled to your opinion and I love seeing varying views and broadening my own, but personal attacks on people you don’t know says more about me than you.
I hate saying I’m left leaning, because people then associate me with the actions you have displayed. Hate picking fights on these threads but it’s people like you who kill discussion dead and make me regret engaging in any form of political discussion. Rant over.
Key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 4
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 0
Definitely False 6
51:49 loses them (the filthy libs) the election.
The Lib vote is parked where they don’t need it.
@Landlord of the year,
“ since 1979, every sitting Victorian government has suffered a swing, except 2018.”
That is complete utter nonsense. So Bracks in 2002 doesn’t count?
Look at the 2002 state election, cheers.
Daniel T
Forgot about Bracks.
@Daniel T The 2002 election was fascinating in that after a redistribution Liberal were nominally ‘in government’. 2018 was looking like it was going to be close too, as did the recent federal election.
My point is that when first term governments who are not overly ‘disliked’ are seen as a chance to lose an election, the public rallies behind them. When it’s perceived they’ll certainly win, people are far happier to do a ‘protest vote’.
crispy wedges – She might be smart and cleaver but her “team” is full of rouges who will go off message at the drop of a hat.
Another area where the Liberals could be derailed is the migration issue. Although it is a federal issue, any federal party policy which comes across as racialist will harm the state party’s chances in the eastern suburb seats that the Liberals have recently lost.
On housing, there is actually huge potential in the newer suburbs to offer to deliver the planned infrastructure that has never been delivered. However, that will cost money and will go against the “debt and deficit” rhetoric.
“@ Victoria So sorry for having an opinion that is slightly different to yours. Your more than entitled to your opinion and I love seeing varying views and broadening my own, but personal attacks on people you don’t know says more about me than you.”
Copped very similar treatment from some of the usual posters on a recent Vic Politics post. It’s sad to see how oblivious they are to what a lot of Victorian’s are feeling. I was told by one poster that crime isn’t really an issue in Melbourne CBD … head in the sand sort of stuff. You’re also a misogynist if you don’t like Jacinta apparently.
I’m a labor man but the arrogance of some of the posters in here is very similar to the arrogance displayed by Vic Labor recently. If Vic Libs can hold it together and not self destruct I think the arrogance will turn to panic soon enough.
Jimbass @ #49 Sunday, November 23rd, 2025 – 9:54 am
Apparently there are also a lot of Victorians who feel there is a heaven when you die, but no one seems to have proof of that.
Fact is:
“You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time”.
― John Lydgate
True or false?