The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll conducted hot on the heels (possibly a little too hot) of the Liberals’ leadership change on Tuesday, with 1030 respondents surveyed between Tuesday and Thursday. The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, in line with recent results from other pollsters but a significant shift on the 53-47 Labor lead recorded at the last Victorian state Newspoll in June. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down seven), Coalition 36% (up one) and Greens 14% (up two). Jacinta Allan records diabolical personal ratings of 26% approval (down four) and 68% disapproval (up seven), while Jess Wilson debuts at 32% and 31%, and holds a 47-33 lead as preferred premier. The poll found respondents deeply concerned about housing (82% “worried”), law and order (81%), state debt (76%) and hospitals (69%). Law and order was rated most important of the four at 42%, with 23% opting for housing, 16% for state debt and 14% for hospitals.
Sorry folks, but I cannot see the “arrogance’ of which some have asserted as being displayed by the Victorian Labor Government. It is difficult to see that a Liberal Party devoting its energy to suing each other and having had three different leaders this term could be seriously considered as being able to govern the state.
In addition the Libs are very vocal with criticism but a non-show when solutions and clear policy are required.
It would not be out of the possibility Jess Wilson also be following the trend of being the liberal party leader and losing her seat on election night.
So much hyperbolic nonsense here.
51-49 for a third term government at this stage of political cycle with same federal party in power is very normal.
Only thing very worthy of pointing out is how deeply unpopular JA is. Unusually so given the 2PP.
If her rating dont improve 2PP will start to shift as election gets closer and government is cooked.
She is done either way IMO.
@Jimbass Interesting to know I’m not alone in my experiences!!
It just kills me the lack of debate ‘allowed’, it’s like a holier than thou view that being ‘left wing ‘ makes you smarter and less parochial.
Of course this is probably isolated to the few who choose these forums to pick fights rather than discuss politics and put ideas forward like most on this thread genuinely do.
Have a good day
Will be interesting to see how Albo imprints himself on the next Vic election. I dare say a whole bunch of projects with Fed $ will be announced near election time. His popularity is still a bit “better than the other choice” rather than glowing endorsement so it will be interesting to see how present he is.
The impact of Moira Deeming also can’t be understated. She is the one person stopping me from voting Liberal for the first time and she absolutely has the ability to kill the Coalition’s chances. Such a shame about Pesutto, he was the ideal next Premier for me.
Kennett-backed Amelia Hamer has won Liberal preselection for the seat of Malvern in the first round, defeating Frydenburg-backed Jacqueline Blackwell.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/amelia-hamer-holds-off-rivals-to-win-malvern-preselection-20251123-p5nhon.html
Scottsays:
Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 3:15 pm
It would not be out of the possibility Jess Wilson also be following the trend of being the liberal party leader and losing her seat on election night.
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I would be a bit more worried about Allan if I was you if the Fed election is any guide.
If those personal ratings translate across to her own seat then she is stuffed.
Jess Wilson’s seat of Kew could definitely be a seat in contention though, especially if Teal candidate Sophie Torney runs again. If Labor’s vote goes down then she could come second and win off their preferences.
The 3CP in 2022 was 44 Lib – 23 ALP – 21 IND.
But yes, Jacinta Allan’s personal ratings indicate that she could also be in deep trouble in Bendigo East, especially with the worst results for Labor happening in the Eastern half of the federal Bendigo division in May.
Kirsdarke @ #56 Sunday, November 23rd, 2025 – 4:47 pm
Another renter er well that’s apart from the two investment properties,but who’s counting.
Jess Wilson on ABC vic.news tonight sounds like a T Abbott clone.You know stop the waste ,stop this, stop that, blah blah blah.
How will you do that?(My words because the ABC reporter doesn’t want to make it a serious discussion) Er. we will tell you when my party wins.
The Liberals in Victoria remain the despised outsiders to win next year’s election.
The swing needed to gain enough Liberal seats is too large.
The Liberals are enjoying a biased media fest, offering very little other than blah, blah against a very successful long term infrastructure Labor government.
The “blow hards” showing similar tendencies to the claims that Victoria Liberals would carry the last Federal election.
The “poms” were said to have sent their best bowling attack to Australia for the ashes!
Good on the Liberals for presenting a novice to spearhead their Victorian election campaign.
The “rule of Dan” will prevail however!
Another night on leftie crime ridden Victoria….
Battin being a an ex copper was the person effective on this issue but libs…..
https://www.9news.com.au/national/melbourne-crime-home-invasion/6d954d53-dbba-4266-b254-a251b7816015
Yeah I guess Battin can go up to NSW and help out there. You know it makes sense.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/man-shot-home-invasion-penrith-sydney/b980aaf0-519a-4d23-b605-67c804ea8560
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/11/brad-battins-booting-is-poll-history.html
Brad Battin’s Booting Is A Poll History Outlier
#Newspoll #springst
Jimbasssays:
Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 9:54 am
[I’m a labor man ]
No you’re not!
You’re a Sky devotee.
Never voted Labor in your life.
Case in point ^ … anyone who doesn’t agree with everything said in the echo chamber must be a ‘sky news devotee’.
Have always voted labor with the only exception being IND Monique Ryan in 2022 (That was a great night) …
Happily voted for Albo (Labor) earlier this year, a good labor man. In fact most of my friends did too… but those same friends are completely disillusioned with Vic Labor at the moment albeit not sold on Vic Lib’s at this stage either.
Jimbass,
Everything you utter is qualified with “but”
It’s all been said before.
“I’ve always voted Labor but”
Get over it!
Vote for who like.
Are ppl surprised Vic Labor is dragging in polls compared to federal or are they moronic?
>city is a divisive hellscape of neonazis knife crime and protests endlessly
>legacy of endless cancelled stuff with money down drain like comm games
>charisma vacuum career hack premier with no vision, policy made up as it goes along
>dandrews in a dictator parade for a fascist regime Jacinta all in on it too for a country literally Everyone knows as our fed gov is openly in a grey zone war with, is about to start a war with Taiwan, ethnic cleansing its Muslim population and is Israel’s second largest trading partner, our closest ally Japan hates it and our Chinese diaspora community is heavily divided on CCP but our premier is a moron who thinks its a monolithic voting bloc
I unironically wonder whether Vic Labor is getting their “vibe” on CCP from Tiktok (Bytedance), Reddit and Discord/western WeChat (Tencent), literally all apps governed by Chinese national intelligence and data sharing laws as opposed to local surveys which show consistent wariness
Goll,
Seems like you’re the one who needs to get over it. You appear to struggle with the concept of voters turning on a party.
Jacinta Allan’s numbers are certainly dire at the moment.
I don’t think Labor should overreact to this Newspoll, but she may be in an irreversible position to turn her personal ratings around.
The fact that these last two polls still have Labor on an election-winning (due to the pendulum) 49% 2PP despite Allan having a 68% disapproval rating shows that Labor as a party/brand still very much have the advantage over the Victorian Liberals.
As others have said, if her personal ratings remain this dire, and the Liberals manage to stay disciplined and focused, that 2PP could start shifting too.
I don’t think that Labor making a move to spill the leadership and replace her is a good idea at all. However, if it becomes clear that Allan might lose the next election or her own seat, after 25 years in parliament she would be able to gracefully step down by announcing that she will retire at the next election to spend time with family.
At this point I think any new blood as premier / Labor leader will probably be a positive, because with Jess Wilson also new and relatively unknown, it resets the contest to be simply Labor vs Liberal without the drag of a deep unpopular leader, and Labor have a brand/party advantage over the Liberals.
Labor really just need to make sure the result hovers around the 50-50 2PP range to comfortably hold onto government, and it’d be hard to see the Liberals get much more than a 50% 2PP if the Labor vote wasn’t being dragged by a -42 approval rating for their leader.
Again though, as I’ve said, I don’t understand why Jacinta Allan is so unpopular. If polled, I would be among the 26% who rate her positively. But you can’t argue with the evidence: for some reason she is deeply unpopular and a significant drag on the Labor vote.
All that said, Labor’s polling is still better in November 2025 than it was in January 2025…
But a new leader, who is relatively unknown and comes without the baggage and high disapproval rating, running a campaign that heavily features Albanese whose government is extremely popular in Victoria and ties the Victorian Liberals to their deeply unpopular federal counterparts, should help keep Labor’s 2PP above 50% at least and seal a 4th term.
Local Labor MPs defending their seats should also get their popular overlapping federal counterparts out & about with them too. Julian Hill, Mark Dreyfus, Josh Burns, Claire O’Neil and others are very popular local MPs who would be an asset to overlapping state MPs defending their seats.
Nicely put, Trent.
If Jacinta Allan doesn’t improve that approval rating by winter then it would be in the interest for Labor for her to resign gracefully.
It might be unfair but politics is at its heart a popularity contest, and she isn’t winning at the moment.
Yep. I totally understand that she’d want the opportunity to be the first woman to win an election in Victoria and win in her own right, but if things aren’t tracking in that direction and there’s more chance that she loses the election and/or her seat, then even from a personal perspective she would be better off retiring having served as premier without tainting her legacy with an election loss.
With the electoral map and pendulum as favourable as it is, it’s hard to see Labor losing the election if the leadership ratings are at least somewhat competitive or neutral, right now they’re not unfortunately.
Liberals going on about Debt in Victoria, their is an easy answer to that why is Queensland debt going up and up and Tasmania’s as well and their both Liberal Government’? That should be Labor’s fall back, other states debts are going up Ms Wilson and their Liberal Government’s, what do you think about that?
Maybe Jacinta should catch the train to work and mix it with public and start doing it much more as well.
Jane Zhu coming in with propaganda straight out of the Epoch Times. Yowza.