Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)

Yet another poll result finding One Nation at new heights, as Labor ebbs to its lowest primary vote since the election.

The latest Roy Morgan poll, which is now reliably a monthly series with large samples accumulated from weekly surveying, has Labor’s two-party lead in from 57-43 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, though the primary vote movements are somewhat more unfavourable for Labor than this suggests: they are down two on last month to 33%, their weakest result since the election, with the Coalition steady on 27%, the Greens down half a point to 12.5% and One Nation up two to 14% (their best result from Morgan since 1998). Based on previous election flows, Labor’s lead is in from 57-43 to 55-45. Presumably to add more context to One Nation’s rise, the poll comes with breakdowns in unusual detail, including primary votes as well as two-party preferred results for all six states, together with gender and age breakdowns. The poll was conducted October 20 to November 16 from a sample of 5248.

UPDATE: Spectre Strategy, which published a poll late in the federal election that was in line with what other pollsters were showing, has emerged with a set of voting intention numbers showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, on what appear to be respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 25%, One Nation 17.5% and Greens 12.5%. The poll was conducted November 4 to 17 from a sample of 1007.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,472 thoughts on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I remember going to the Parc des Princes in 1976 to watch that capitulation.

    Les Bleus had a great side then featuring in the back row Jean-Pierre Rives, Jean-Claude Skrela and Jean-Pierre Bastiat.

    Lots of running rugby.

  2. “Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:15 pm
    MB
    Surely Richo’s faction, however called, was a continuation of the ‘Officers group’ who, in NSW, continued to exercise control of the party rather than split with the renegade groupers.

    Richo’s contribution was to assist Ducker with the Whitlam ascendency, enable the Wran ascendency (Neville having been plucked out of the soft left and elevated into the leadership by Ducker, rolling the right’s Pat Hills alone the way), ensuring that the machine was well run for another decade after leaving for the senate, thus also laying the groundwork for the Carr Labor Government). All good work until things got out of hand with the aftermath of the Terrigals and Trogs once Carr removed the leaders of both from cabinet in 2003 and the NSW right faction fractured and became dysfunctional for about 15 years or so.”

    ________

    FTFU

  3. ‘frednk says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 8:48 am
    …
    Ukraine is basically taking Russia apart brick by brick.
    https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/mapping-ukraines-drone-campaign-to-destroy-russias-oil-empire-12927‘
    ======================
    War reporting is interesting.

    IMO, it is all a bit M.A.D. ATM.

    Russia is routinely causing mass blackouts in Ukraine. In the run up to the northern winter, this hurts. There are obvious implications for economic production, for war logistics, and the like.

    Both sides have ramped up drone and missile production such that they are each now capable of launching many hundreds more or less simultaneously. Even if the majority get destroyed en route, there are enough getting through for both sides to be taking significant damage.

    Both sides are also having to spend more and more effort on point defence, on air defence in depth, and on hardening critical targets.

    IMO, one of the major lessons of the war is that it now requires a complete drone/missle ecology: attack drones/missiles of various kinds; EW apparatus – including complex command and control, defence against the above, logistics to move the stuff around, and a domestic industry which is able to produce masses of drones and which is also able to innovate in drone/missile design and in EW and ECW.

    If we look at the war effort then drones/missiles may represent something like 10% of the war effort. That is a wild guess. It is worth someone in defence doing the statistical analysis.

    I see little evidence that the ADF is reforming itself to better integrate drones into its tactical and strategic doctrines, nor of a concerted effort to build the domestic defence industry supply chain that would support this doctrinal modernization.

    Finally, I re-iterate an earlier point. Combined arms are critical. One of the reasons the Ukraine is better at attrition is that its artillery, armor and its manned air platforms are doing a great job and are well-integrated with the drone/missile weaponry.

  4. Cricket Australia should have had either the Dutch or Portuguese first eleven on standby in the event of the collapse of the England eleven.
    This has happened before!
    The Australian cricket team should be thanking Usman Khawaja for standing aside and thus allowing Travis Head to perform his heroics.

  5. The Age 23/11
    Liberal Party rising star Amelia Hamer will be endorsed as the candidate for the seat of Malvern, convincingly holding off three other contenders in the preselection vote.
    More than 200 Liberal Party members attended Caulfield Race Course on Sunday to select a new candidate following the retirement of former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien – who will step down after the November state election.
    _______________________
    No National Executive there at the Caulfield Race Course. Labor preselections giving members a vote seem to have gone the way of the dodo.
    Anyway well done. She looks to be a young woman in a hurry.

  6. Newspoll out tonight ?

    $93 million that’s the figure all over the media now, the amount for the BOM fiasco.
    Then there is the CSIRO fiasco and fed labor are peeing tens of millions of taxpayers money into the river.

  8. gollsays:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:38 pm
    The Australian cricket team should be thanking Usman Khawaja for standing aside and thus allowing Travis Head to perform his heroics.
    _______________________
    Khawaja should be donating his match fee to charity.
    Maybe to a cricket club in outback Qld to buy some new equipment.

  9. Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:46 pm
    The Age 23/11
    Liberal Party rising star Amelia Hamer will be endorsed as the candidate for the seat of Malvern, convincingly holding off three other contenders in the preselection vote.
    More than 200 Liberal Party members attended Caulfield Race Course on Sunday to select a new candidate following the retirement of former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien – who will step down after the November state election.
    _________________

    Secret side-letters of endorsement were most welcome I hear…

  10. Robert Lynchsays:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:27 pm
    I remember going to the Parc des Princes in 1976 to watch that capitulation. …
    _______________

    I remember going to the other Parc des Princes in 1981 to see Pierre Bosustow take a screamer in front of the Heatley Stand.

  11. “Taylormade says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:54 pm
    gollsays:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 2:38 pm
    The Australian cricket team should be thanking Usman Khawaja for standing aside and thus allowing Travis Head to perform his heroics.
    _______________________
    Khawaja should be donating his match fee to charity.
    Maybe to a cricket club in outback Qld to buy some new equipment.”

    ++++++

    Know thy place, Usi: the White Bwana hath spoken!

  12. ‘Truly bizarre’: Critics pounce on ‘one of the biggest foreign policy scandals in history’

    A peace plan being thrust upon Ukraine was actually written by Russia, according to reports, and Marco Rubio is taking heat for confusing messaging.

    Foreign affairs and defense correspondent Nick Schifrin reported the news on X:

    “BREAKING: After talking to @SecRubio, @SenatorRounds announces that the 28 point plan was a Russian document, not a US document,” he wrote.

    MeidasTouch also added, “Holy s—: here’s a tweet where Vance pushed the Ukraine ‘peace plan’ that Marco Rubio just admitted was written entirely by Russia. This may be one of the biggest foreign policy scandals in history.”

  13. No National Executive there at the Caulfield Race Course. Labor preselections giving members a vote seem to have gone the way of the dodo.

    @Taylormade

    The LNP has been forced to bus in volunteers from the state’s capital in order to staff pre-polling booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election after local members accused the party of overlooking them when selecting their candidate.

    The move, which has infuriated local branch members in the hotly-contested seat, is believed to have led to a shortage of volunteers on the campaign trail, forcing the LNP to bus in recruits from the state’s southeast.

    An LNP insider said local volunteers were hard to come by given Mr Chiesa had only joined the party as he was announced as a captain’s call candidate.

    “Nobody knows him,” the member said.

    It’s understood that almost every single LNP member operating at the pre-polling booth in Deeragun have travelled from Brisbane to assist the campaign, which has struggled to source volunteers after the controversial pick.

    https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/hinchinbrook-byelection-lnp-imports-volunteers-after-local-backlash/news-story/54a7b40739275edb665997264beabe6d

  14. Hamer moving to Malvern, the cold war in Kooyong turns warmer and now looks like being a Ryan Frydenberg rematch. Ryan probably prefers that than facing Hamer.

  17. Upnorth @ 11.51am
    Nothing wrong with the Romania Rugby Team.
    I and four other Rugby followers sat amongst the entire Irish Rugby supporters, in the eastern stand at Gosford Stadium, cheering, loudly for “The Mighty Oaks” during the 2007 Rugby World Cup match in Gosford.
    When questioned why, by an Irish lass, my friend Chris replied, “Because I’m English”.
    Although the rest of us, weren’t.
    The current Wallaby squad would be pushed by The Oaks, currently.

  19. Macca RB says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 3:59 pm
    Upnorth @ 11.51am
    Nothing wrong with the Romania Rugby Team.
    I and four other Rugby followers sat amongst the entire Irish Rugby supporters, in the eastern stand at Gosford Stadium, cheering, loudly for “The Mighty Oaks” during the 2007 Rugby World Cup match in Gosford.
    When questioned why, by an Irish lass, my friend Chris replied, “Because I’m English”.
    Although the rest of us, weren’t.
    The current Wallaby squad would be pushed by The Oaks, currently.
    中华人民共和国
    I agree Macca so my note was not so much in jest. Townsville’s favourite Rah Rah team are the Japanese Cherry Blossoms. Last time Australia hosted the World Cup – Townsville housed the side who trained and played at the Cowboys stadium.

  20. Poor diddums having a sook because his company got taxed. Wah wah wah let me play the world’s tiniest violin.

    Andrews, one of the greatest Premiers in Australian history, is “human filth” for changing a tax rate.

    Packer is best mates with Trump.

    Says it all about that nepo baby.

    “He splits his time between his $175m mega‑mansion in Bel‑Air, California, and his $200m superyacht, and rarely returns home stating he hadn’t ‘spent more than six weeks in Australia in the last 10 years’ largely due to his ‘bittersweet relationship with the Australian Tax Office’.”

    If he hates Australia so much he should renounce his citizenship and fuck off for good.

  21. I posted earlier about Australia’s roles and responsibilities as COP31 President. I didn’t mention our Pacific partners and the pre-COP.

    “The agreement reached between Australia and Türkiye confirms that the Pacific is a full partner in the road to COP31. One of the most important outcomes is that the pre-COP will be held in the Pacific. With the agenda set jointly by Australia and the Pacific Island countries, this is more than symbolism. It is recognition that our region must lead on issues that affect our survival.”
    POLYCARP PAEA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MINISTER FOR ENVIRONMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND METEOROLOGY

    “I would like to make a special thank you Minister Chris Bowen in this process. It has been a very difficult negotiation and we know that because we have been behind Australia for years in this bid. We know how difficult it has been but I want to thank Minister Bowen especially for the transparency and the trust which you have shown to the Pacific leaders. We have always been consulted, always had prior approval of any arrangements and that is what was- the commitment made to us and it was honoured all the way until today.”
    RALPH REGENVANU, VANUATU MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, METEOROLOGY, GEO-HAZARDS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT

    “This is a great opportunity for a small island developing state to continue to advocate for its special circumstance, its vulnerability to climate change, and its efforts to triple climate finance in order for us to survive as people, as cultures, and as countries. It is also an opportunity to highlight the very important role of the oceans in climate negotiations, which so far has not been the centre of the agenda.”
    STEVEN VICTOR, PALAU MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES, AND ENVIRONMENT

    https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop30-0

  23. Westminster Abbey
    @wabbey
    In the centre of the nave lies the Grave of the Unknown Warrior, one of the most poignant memorials in the Abbey, which honours the fallen of the two world wars and conflicts since.

    It is the only grave in the Abbey that is never stepped upon, with even royal brides walking to one side as they enter the church.

    During our service marking the 80th anniversary of VE Day here earlier this year, members of the Royal Family stood for a moment of silence at Warrior’s grave to reflect upon the bravery of those who fought.

    #Museum30 #Walk

    9:06 PM · Nov 22, 2025
    ·
    61.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/wabbey/status/1992172850078249086

  24. Watching Insiders this morning and I think the Greens would be smart to shift to Sarah Hanson-Young this term. I like Larissa Waters, and I might be a bit biased as a South Australian, but Waters has been coming across as wishy-washy, unimpressive in the media and hasn’t made much impact, while SHY remains a strong performer who actually cuts through.

  26. Mark Carney(Canada PM)
    @MarkJCarney
    Canada, Australia, and India just formed a new trilateral partnership on technology and innovation.

    We’ll work more closely together on clean energy, critical minerals, and AI to unlock new research, more opportunities, and greater prosperity.

    4:03 AM · Nov 23, 2025
    ·
    269.6K
    Views

    https://x.com/MarkJCarney/status/1992277650694697046

    BTW, where is Sir Keir?
    The reason I am asking is because this happened @G20 meet
    I know that Trump and Xi did not attend the meet. Is it the same with British PM?

  29. That Trump-Mamdami press conference has me really confused. Since when was Trump like that with Democratic party politicians?

    I was expecting something like the Zelenskyy treatment. I’ve heard it said that if anything Trump does recognise charisma.

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 12:41 pm
    Australia is a global leader in trafficking fossil fuels so I won’t be taking signed ‘statements’ of intent to cease that at all seriously until it is phased out

    Australia is doing some heavy lifting. We are endowed with some of the world’s greatest fossil fuel reserves. They are truly massive. Their exploitation brings substantial economic benefits to the country.

    And yet….Australia is tapering out its use of coal and gas domestically …replacing these fuels with renewables. Moreover, Australia has assumed a role in helping other countries shift their energy use to renewables.

    This will not be cost-free to Australia. But it is happening. China is doing the same. Off hand I can’t think of too many others fossil fuel heavyweights doing the same thing.

    There will be winners from evolution in the economy this century. They will be the economies that transition to renewables. There will also be losers. They are the economies that have prospered from fossil fuel exploitation and those that cannot achieve or refuse to undertake a transition.

    Transition is inevitably coming for most. We have to make sure we are at the leading edge of adaptation. ..that we gain as much as possible from refreshment in our domestic economy. Labor are working on that. The Reactionaries will either try to stall this change or deny it’s happening.

  31. I think SHY is one of the reasons why the Greens poll so well in South Australia, she has really grown into her role in the Senate and does a fine job. Larissa is leader though and I’m looking forward to seeing what direction she takes the party in, especially on cost of living. We’re doing great with young voters, we just need to broaden that appeal

    Speaking of South Australia, it was interesting to hear Niki Savva’s final observation on Insiders that there is a possibility that the Liberals won’t win a single seat there in March. Surely there must be one or two that are safe?

  32. Ven says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 5:26 pm
    Mark Carney(Canada PM)
    @MarkJCarney
    Canada, Australia, and India just formed a new trilateral partnership on technology and innovation.

    We’ll work more closely together on clean energy, critical minerals, and AI to unlock new research, more opportunities, and greater prosperity.

    Excellent. Australia, Canada and the Mughal Estate, rebuilt. Fabulous.

    Of course, this gets right up the nose of the worthless Reactionaries….making it even sweeter. If only India and Pakistani could forget their differences and include Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in a common market.

  33. Hard Being Green says:
    Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 5:38 pm

    Speaking of South Australia, it was interesting to hear Niki Savva’s final observation on Insiders that there is a possibility that the Liberals won’t win a single seat there in March.

    Yes. Yes. A parliament in Adelaide without any Reactionaries. Don Dunstan would rejoice. This would be something to celebrate. May they lose all their seats and then wind themselves up.

  34. Upnorth @ 4.18pm
    We had 3 matches at Gosford for the World Cup.
    My wife and I were fortunate to have tickets for each.
    Gosford Sailing Club was the meeting / eating and drinking place for local Rugby supporters.
    Namibia had their training base at Avoca Beach and were supported by the Avoca Rugby Club.
    They played Argentina and it was something like 22 000 for the Meerkats and a few for The Pumas.
    Namibia merch was the most sort out item on the Central Coast.
    We were hoping for a pre-match re-enactment across Brisbane Water prior to the USA – Japan match.
    Alas, the promo budget couldn’t go that far.
    It was 50/50 crowd support between the Eagles and the Blossoms.

  35. Hard Being Green @ #1431 Sunday, November 23rd, 2025 – 5:38 pm

    I think SHY is one of the reasons why the Greens poll so well in South Australia, she has really grown into her role in the Senate and does a fine job. Larissa is leader though and I’m looking forward to seeing what direction she takes the party in, especially on cost of living. We’re doing great with young voters, we just need to broaden that appeal

    Speaking of South Australia, it was interesting to hear Niki Savva’s final observation on Insiders that there is a possibility that the Liberals won’t win a single seat there in March. Surely there must be one or two that are safe?

    The safest seat is Barker, held by the Libs 63-37. With a primary vote of 48% I don’t think that’s going to be lost, unless a strong Independent shows up.

    Grey was a close one, Independent candidate Anita Kuss could have flipped it if she came in second place, but Labor came second instead and lost by about 45-55.

  36. Oh, whoops, you meant State politics.

    Yes, that is possible, but outside of Adelaide their safest seats are Chaffey on 67-33 and Schubert on 62-38. If they lose those then they’d pretty much be finished.

  39. Oh and there’s also MacKillop, which Liberal Nick McBride won 73-27 in 2022 but has quit the party to sit as an Independent. It’ll be telling if the Liberals fail to win that seat back.

    They probably will though, since McBride has been charged with assaulting his wife.

  41. Ummm. What is the point of a COP deal that does not even mention fossil fuels?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-23/cop30-climate-deal-sidesteps-fossil-fuels/106042660

    Brazil’s COP30 presidency pushed through a compromise climate deal on Saturday that would boost finance for poor nations coping with global warming, but that omitted any mention of the fossil fuels driving it.

    If we had known that was even possible, I’m sure we would have tried harder to host the next COP! 🙁

  43. “Progress was made on funding climate finance and adaptation to the changes already emerging. But efforts on ending reliance on fossil fuels faltered in the face of strong resistance by fossil fuel powers. Much progress in Belém happened outside the main talks.”

    …

    “For many, COP30 will be regarded as a failure on fossil fuels and addressing major gaps between national pledges to cut emissions and what’s needed to hold warming to 1.5°C.

    This is true. But another view would be that these talks made real progress on important areas despite considerable challenges.

    Negotiators from 194 countries showed up and continued to talk and work together to tackle the worsening crisis. Nearly half of those countries have shown they’re ready to begin weaning themselves off fossil fuels through their support for the phase-out roadmap. They don’t have to wait for a UN consensus to act. Fossil fuel exporters only have power while other nations buy and rely on their products.”

    https://theconversation.com/this-years-climate-talks-saw-real-progress-just-not-on-fossil-fuels-269903

  44. Mavis @ #1441 Sunday, November 23rd, 2025 – 6:10 pm

    The terms of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan:

    https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia

    I can’t see Zelenskyy agreeing to these terms. Europe should stand in America’s place where it can.

    Yeah, that plan sickened me when I heard about it in full. Essentially it’s just telling Ukraine “Give up what you lost, don’t bother seeking justice for war crimes against you, and give up your ability to fight back when Putin comes for round three in a couple of years when we give him the ability to re-arm.”

  46. @HBG Yeah, I had a look after her claim too and it definitely feels a bit dramatic. I can’t see how the Liberals lose seats like MacKillop which was over 60% first preference and 70%+ 2PP last election. Even though it’s held by an Independent right now, they’d still be favoured to win it back.

    As Kirsdarke said, you’d also probably expect Chaffey and Schubert to be safe, both sitting on 50%+ first prefs and 60%+ 2PP in 2022.

    The real wildcards are all the Independent-incumbent or Independent-leaning seats. Even some of the “safe” Lib seats are vulnerable with strong independent runs again, like Flinders, which was 70%+ 2PP for the Libs but a 53/47 contest versus the Independent vote. Conversely, current Independent seats like Narungga and Mt Gambier could become gettable for them again due to retirements or incumbents with baggage.

    In a true worst-case scenario for the Liberals, you could honestly see them drop to only 3 regional MPs, get completely wiped out in metropolitan Adelaide, and maybe cling onto Bragg to scrape together 4 seats total — with a crossbench of 5 or 6+ overtaking them in numbers.

    I’m curious to see how the Independents perform this time and whether the Greens could pick up a Liberal seat like Heysen or, less likely, Unley.

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