With almost exactly a year to go until the next election, the Victorian Liberal Party has had its second leadership change in a little under a year, with Brad Battin deposed by Jess Wilson. Wilson came to parliament at the 2022 election as member for Kew, and was elevated to Shadow Treasurer in what proved to be a problematic reshuffle for Battin last month. The Age reports the motion to declare the leadership positions vacant was carried 19 votes to 13, after which Wilson was elected unopposed. The deputy leader, Sam Groth, retained his position against challenger David Southwick by 17 votes to 15, while Bev McArthur deposed David Davis as upper house leader by 19 votes to 13.
Too late to do Battin any good, the Herald Sun today reports a Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1217, showed Battin was a plus 15 net favourability rating compared with minus 28 for Jacinta Allan, and a 45-31 lead as preferred premier (the same poll apparently had Anthony Albanese at minus two and Sussan Ley at minus three, the latter of which would seem at odds with other recent polling). Jess Wilson was at plus seven, with an undisclosed but unsurprisingly large result for uncommitted. Voting intention nonetheless showed the Coalition with a modest 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 37% and Labor 30%. Sixty per cent felt the government was doing a bad job, with only 26% opting for good.
Daniel T @ #45 Wednesday, November 19th, 2025 – 10:23 pm
Not Labor natural territory,spare me!
Region Population at 30 June 2024 12-month increase Annual rate of growth
4 Clyde North – South 24,609 3,932 19%
8 Cranbourne South 24,578 2,725 13%
Source: ABS. Suburbs ranked by 12-month population increase.
Google:
Cranbourne South has experienced significant population growth,
increasing from 17,456 in the 2021 Census to an estimated 27,330 residents in August 2025, a rise of 56.6%. This growth is primarily driven by internal migration, fueled by new housing developments, a high rate of new homes, and strong demand from families. The suburb is a popular choice for young families and professionals due to its modern estates, parklands, and amenities.
Clyde North’s population is expected to reach approximately
58,234 in 2025. This is based on a 2025 forecast that projects continued high growth, following an 87.8% increase since the 2021 Census. The area has experienced rapid development, with a high proportion of children and working-age individuals, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years.
Recent Growth: The population saw a significant increase of 12,999 people (87.8%) between the 2021 Census and August 2025.
Driving Factors: This growth is driven by internal migration and significant new development.
@Landlord, agree. That was definitely what I envisioned as being the Liberals’ best case scenario, on a good night, if everything goes right for them.
@Bird, a pre-requisite for the Footscray / Richmond flips is an assumption that the Liberals will reverse their HTVC decision and put the Greens last, whereas in 2022 they put Labor last.
That alone will wipe a few % off the Greens’ margin in Richmond (it wouldn’t have reversed the result) but there does seem to be some GRN to ALP movement going on among the more middle class / professional demographics. So in Richmond I can imagine probably a 3% swing from GRN to ALP coupled with a reversal of Liberal preferences wiping another 3-4% off the 2CP, making it a 50/50 contest that could go either way.
The same may occur in Melbourne too, but Ellen Sandell has enough of a margin there to still hold it, and it’s also why I think Kat Theophanous will hold Northcote. In Prahran, Liberal preferences won’t matter as they’ll make the 2CP (and then lose).
That also means that in theory the Liberals changing their HTVC recommendation would increase Katie Hall’s margin in Footscray, however at the same time middle class / professional voters seem to be swinging from GRN to ALP, diverse & working class voters seem to be swinging the other way.
I consider Footscray to be a 50/50 tossup really, but if the Greens win (or come close), I actually don’t think it will be so much to do with an increase in their primary vote, but actually due to a surge in the Victorian Socialists’ vote. I think they will get double-digits in Footscray, and their preferences will flow strongly to the Greens.
At the federal election, a lot of booths within the state seat of Footscray had a combined Greens + VS primary between 55-60%! There were huge swings to both the Greens & Socialists (especially VS) and state Labor is less popular than federal Labor.
Overall with these GRN contests, I predict:
– ALP increase their margin in Northcote, Pascoe Vale & Preston
– Greens reclaim Prahran, possibly with a close 3CP vs ALP but comfortable 2CP vs LIB
– Greens hold Melbourne with the margin reduced to single digits
– Greens comfortably hold Brunswick on a double-digit margin
– Footscray & Richmond are 50/50 tossup and will both be close
I think the Greens will pick up Footscray and it won’t be especially close. Lotta people living here would have lived in Brunswick or Fitzroy in times of yore, it’s now ground zero for socialists and the professional and public service type folk aren’t too happy right now. I live there and a half decent Greens candidate should win easily.