US state and local elections live

Live commentary on today’s US Virginia and New Jersey state elections, New York City mayoral election and a referendum in California to enable retaliatory gerrymandering.

Live Commentary

9:20am Thursday In the NJ lower house, the NYT has 53 Dems and 19 Reps with eight uncalled. Dems are leading in four of the uncalled seats. If current leads hold up, they will win by 57-23, a five-seat gain.

5:28pm In the Texas 18th federal seat “jungle primary” (this is a special election), the two leading candidates, both Democrats, will advance to a yet to be scheduled runoff. A candidate needs over 50% to win a jungle primary outright, and the top candidate currently has 30.2%. The top Rep got 6.7%.

4:53pm End of day summary In Virginia, Dems won the governorship by 15.2 points, lieutenant governor by 11.4 and attorney general by 6.6 despite a scandal regarding the Dem A-G candidate. Dems won the lower house by 64-36, a 13-seat gain. Virginia voted for Harris in 2024 by 5.8 points.

In NJ, Dems won the governor by 13 points, far exceeding polls that gave them a low single-digit lead. NJ voted for Harris by 5.9 points in 2024. Dems have a 49-19 lead in called NJ lower house races, with 12 uncalled. Dems previously had a 52-28 majority in the NJ lower house.

With 91% in for NYC, Mamdani won the mayoralty by 50.4-41.6 over Cuomo with just 7.1% for Sliwa. In California, with 66% in, Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering leads by 29.4 points. We won’t have final results from NYC or California for some time as they take weeks to count all their votes.

3:23pm Now 50% in from California, and Yes leads by 66-34.

3:09pm Only 2% counted so far in California, but it’s already been called for Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering. Yes leads by 74-26 so far.

3:02pm VPAP now showing only one undecided seat in Virginia, with Dems winning by 64-35, a gain of 13 seats for the Dems. In the NJ lower house, the NYT has Dems winning by 44-14 with 22 still undecided. Dems have retained their hold on the trifecta in NJ and gained a trifecta in Virginia by gaining the governorship. The trifecta means control over both chambers of the legislature and the governor.

2:45pm Dems will win the other NYC races easily, beating the Reps with over 70%. In Pennsylvania, Dems have retained three judges on the state supreme court to keep their 5-2 majority. In Maine, a referendum to require photo ID for voting has been rejected by 23 points with 57% in.

2:37pm It’s now 59-26 in the Virginia lower house to the Dems with 15 undecided, a gain of ten seats for the Dems. Reps lead most of the undecided seats.

2:21pm In the VPAP count of the Virginia lower house, Dems lead Reps by 55-25 with 20 undecided, a gain of eight seats for Dems.

1:51pm According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dems are winning the Virginia lower house by 40-17 with 43 uncalled. Dems have gained seven seats from the Reps so far.

1:40pm Mamdani CALLED winner of NYC mayor. With 75% in, he leads Cuomo by 50.4-41.3 with just 7.5% for Sliwa.

1:52pm The Dem has been called the winner in NJ governor, currently leading by 15 points with 63% in.

1:27pm With 52% in for NYC, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has narrowed to 49.6-41.5. But hardly any further narrowing with 60% in now.

1:15pm The Dem’s lead has narrowed to 15 points in NJ with 52% in, with the NYT expecting her to get a final 56% of the vote.

1:12pm With 38% in for NYC, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 51.2-40.0 with just 8.0% for Sliwa. These would be early votes, so election day votes may favour Cuomo.

12:36pm With 62% counted in Virginia, the Dems lead for governor by 11 points, lieutenant governor by 7 and attorney general by 2. So the scandal about Jones’ texts had an impact, but not enough for him to lose the att-gen race.

12:31pm With 27% in for NJ, the Dem leads by 23 points. If that holds up, the polls in NJ will have badly understated the Dem. But perhaps early votes are mostly counted, and election day votes will help the Rep.

12:29pm With 52% in for the Texas federal special election, the three leading candidates are all Dems, but the leader has 32%, well under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

12:15pm With 17% in for NJ, the Dem is up by more than 26 points. The NYT says the remaining vote is “fairly evenly split”, implying an easy Dem win.

12:10pm With 14% in for New Jersey, the Dem leads the governor’s race by 17 points. No NYT estimate of the final result yet.

12:01pm The Dem has been called the winner in Virginia governor.

11:55am With 29% in for Virginia, NYT gives Dem gov candidate 57% when counting complete. Dems still likely to win all three statewide offices.

11:37am With 17% now counted in Virginia governor, the NYT model thinks the Dem will win with 56% of the final vote. The other statewide races are closer, but Dems should win all three.

11:28am For the governor’s race, the Dem is winning all types of votes counted so far, early votes by 21 points, election day votes by 5.5 points and mail votes by 49 points.

11:21am With 2% reporting in Virginia, the Dems lead the governor race by 13 points. They are also 14 points up in the Attorney-General race and 10 points up for lieutenant-governor.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

US state elections occur today in Virginia and New Jersey, with the governor and lower house of the legislature up. New York City (NYC) will hold a mayoral election. California holds a referendum on enabling Democratic retaliatory gerrymandering. And there’s a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat. Polls close at 11am AEDT in Virginia, 12 noon in NJ and Texas, 1pm in NYC and 3pm in California.

Late polls in NJ have the Democrat leading by low single-digit margins. Democrats have held the NJ governorship since 2017. In Virginia, where Republicans won the governorship in 2021, the Democrat leads by high single to low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Donald Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Virginia also holds statewide contests for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general. A scandal about the Democratic AG candidate’s texts could cost him. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

In NYC, a late AtlasIntel poll gave Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani a 44-39 lead over independent Andrew Cuomo with 15% for Republican Curtis Silwa. Cuomo led Mamdani by 50-44 head to head. Other than in the two final AtlasIntel polls, Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digit margins and also led him head to head. In California, “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering is over 20 points ahead.

The special election in Texas’ 18th is being held eight months after the former Democratic member died, but it’s unlikely to be decided today. It’s a “jungle primary”, where all Democratic and Republican candidates compete and the top two go to a runoff. Unless one candidate gets over 50%, a runoff will need to be scheduled to decide this seat.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with three vacancies. A Democrat who won a special in Arizona in September has not yet been seated. A special will occur on December 2 in a safe Republican seat in Tennessee.

With the ongoing US government shutdown set to beat the record for the longest shutdown, Donald Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has slid 5.3 points since October 19 to -12.8. In Fiftyplusone’s generic ballot average, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has changed little, and is now 44.9-41.8.

Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile past and upcoming elections

The 150 Dutch MPs are elected by national proportional representation without a threshold. At the October 29 election, the socially liberal and progressive D66 won 26 seats (up 17 since the 2023 election), the far-right PVV 26 (down 11), the conservative VVD 22 (down two), the Green Left 20 (down five), the conservative CDA 18 (up 13), the far-right JA21 nine (up eight) and the far-right FvD seven (up four).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are needed. It usually takes months after an election to form a government. Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government and this election to be held over two years early. But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.

The Bolivian presidential runoff election occurred on October 19. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) had dominated Bolivia since 2005, but at this election they won just 3.2% of the August first round vote, with the runoff contested by two conservative to right-wing candidates, with the more centrist candidate winning by 55.0-45.0. Seats in both houses of the legislature were allocated by PR using the presidential vote. The MAS won just two of 130 seats in the lower house and zero of 36 in the Senate.

Chile presidential and legislative elections will occur on November 16, with a presidential runoff on December 14. Incumbent left-winger Gabriel Boric cannot run owing to term limits. Jeannette Jara is Boric’s candidate and leads right-winger José Kast in first round polls, but other candidates are mostly right-wing, so Kast may win the runoff.

187 comments on “US state and local elections live”

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  2. Dont know what to say thats nice so ill just say ha ha Dick Cheney. He was a cornerstone to my political awakening and probably to many more. He and Bush were the true precursors to Trump. They ran to exploit the US government and economy much in the way we are seeing today. They at least tried to be discrete about it, even if they were really bad at hiding it, as men who live without consequences often are.

  4. New Jersey keys used for the prediction:
    Definitely True 9
    Probably True 1
    Probably False 1
    Definitely False 3

    Virginia keys:
    Definitely True 5
    Probably True 1
    Probably False 1
    Definitely False 7

  6. “But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.”

    Not going to happen.

    It takes more than numbers to form a government.

    It would require a far larger number of parties many of them with few seats to agree to such a government and its programme and it would be unstable from the get go.

    And some of the right wing parties have no truck with Wilders and the PVV so aren’t likely to join.

    “Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government”

    The last government fell because Wilders pulled PVV members out of it so it lost its majority not because the other parties refused to work with him.

    Their decisions not to work with him again came after the fall. Why would you agree to work with a party whose leader pulled the plug?

  9. GOP panics as Mamdani nears NYC mayoral victory

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/11/4/2352032/-GOP-panics-as-Mamdani-nears-NYC-mayoral-victory?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    “President Donald Trump raised the temperature in the mayoral race Tuesday morning.

    “Any Jewish person that votes for Zohran Mamdani, a proven and self professed JEW HATER, is a stupid person!!!” he wrote on Truth Social.”

    “And GOP Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee—who previously urged the Justice Department to investigate Mamdani and even floated the idea of deporting him—came out with more racist attacks against Mamdani on Monday.

    “The 14th Amendment may allow Congress the authority to BAN Mamdani from office. I am looking into this,” he wrote on X.

    Ogles’ warning followed an effort by the New York Young Republican Club to bar Mamdani from taking office if he wins. The group pointed to the 14th Amendment, banning anyone who “engaged in insurrection or rebellion”—a claim that legal scholars widely dismissed as baseless.

    “There is a real and legitimate push to see the insurrectionist Zohran Mamdani either a) removed from the ballot or b) removed from office if he is to win,” Stefano Forte, president of the New York Young Republican Club, told the New York Post.”

  10. This has to feed into today’s election, you’d think.
    ————————————
    Ticket splitting may have declined but I dont believe that is as relevant here. If we do assume that Trumps national disapproval will effect the vote – then we should be seeing polling with the Dem well ahead in NJ (as Trump only lost it by 6pts in 2024 after losing it bigly in 2020).

    So…. what are we looking for here? Will the vote in NJ confirm it is turning red? Or that Trumps disapproval does/doesn’t translate into the ballot box? That polling has improved? What does that mean for the mid-terms?

    Soz, for me I dont think it tells us much (assuming the polling is roughly about right). I just hope the Dems win the two Gubers and Newsom gets his measure up. The speculation that will come from it is less interesting on this occasion.

  11. GOP panics as Mamdani nears NYC mayoral victory
    —————————————
    Are the Dems panicking too?

    And… where are all the PB’ers who accused Sanders of trying to wreck Clintons electoral chances? At least Sanders didnt run as an independent! F’ing Cuomo. I see Trump just endorsed him.

  12. Nutty Dems have a socialist about to give republicans a major boost if he wins.

    Vance already has it in the bag in a few years this will be the cherry on top.

    Word salad supports the socialist.

  13. pp, what’s wrong with a socialist like Mamdani? His democratic, selective socialism works in many places around the planet. Todays US has some socialist foundations and existing socialist frameworks with the minimum wage, medicare, social security etc.

    I would note the New Deal was called socialism by its detractors at the time.

    And…. Trump is transforming the US into a form of State Capitalism. That is not dissimilar to socialism and exists in places like China, Russia, Singapore….

  15. @Katich – why are you bothering trying to engage with “PP”?

    Anyway – unless GOP turnout on election day is supercharged, I don’t see the GOP doing well (even ‘OK’) anywhere.

    NJ may well end up closer than it should, but I think the Dem will win relatively easily 5%+ (the GOP nominee is the type of GOP who could win NJ in an off-year election, when turnout used to benefit the GOP) If turnout in NoVA is worth reading, it seems like Spanberger is going to win very easily, and perhaps more importantly, the Dems will do very well in the legislature race – the AGs race should be a squeaker… but we know why.

    On Prop 50 – the question is whether it’s above or below 60% and in NYC, if Mamdani cracks 50%.

  16. 20,000 positions up for election today across the US.

    As Mark Twain said, possibly thinking of the current state of US democracy “ The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

  20. @Ven – that’s pathetic.

    The people getting so excited about Ezra Klein and arguing the need to be a big tent and having candidate which suit the community in which they’re running, conveniently like to forget the tent also shifts left.

    One of the reasons the Dems are in a weird position is because they have consistently been cowards, the Leadership thinks by pivoting to the hard centre in terms of policy, they’ll win. What they need to be seen as is strong and clear and passionately advocating for their positions, not trying to passionately avoid offending people.

  21. Amazing that 15 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are not being contested by any Republican. It is years since this sort of thing happened in Australia federally or in a state (I think a few rural SA seats might have been the last for that to happen)

  22. Apparently some news sites have already called the VA-governor race for Spanberger. That’s a good sign for the Dems. Let’s see how the AG race goes, as he’s running 4-5 points behind Spanberger (53 vs 57.5% as I write this).

  23. Anyone got a link to a single page showing the counting in all 100 Virginia House seats? Only links I can find require you to check results for an individual seat at a time.

  24. Arange
    Whoops, just saw your next post, carry on.

    New Jersey keys used for the prediction:
    Definitely True 9
    Probably True 1
    Probably False 1
    Definitely False 3

    Virginia keys:
    Definitely True 5
    Probably True 1
    Probably False 1
    Definitely False 7

    I am not very familiar with the specific keys, or what the above predicts. Do these suggest a change of Governor?

  25. @Katich – why are you bothering trying to engage with “PP”?
    ———————————————-
    I had a long chat with my local possum the other night as we watched my burn pile blaze away. He sat there with me for ages.

  26. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 11:50 am

    “I am not very familiar with the specific keys, or what the above predicts. Do these suggest a change of Governor?”

    Democrat wins in both. So No for New Jersey and Yes for Virginia(by party)

    Key 1: Midterm Gains
    Key 2: No close primary contest
    Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-election
    Key 4: No major third party
    Key 5: The economy is not in recession/people don’t feel like they are in a recession
    Key 6: Real per capita gdp growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
    Key 7: Major Policy Change
    Key 8: No major, violent, widespread social unrest
    Key 9: No major scandal recognised by both sides of politics
    Key 10: No foreign or military failure
    Key 11: Major foreign or military success, like winning a war
    Key 12: The incumbent party leader is appealing to moderate voters of the challenging party
    Key 13: The leader of the challenging party is not appealing to moderate voters of the Incumbent party.
    Key 14: True if there’s something triggering a ‘Rally around the flag effect
    7 false keys for opposition popular vote win

  28. No it’s not “Likely that they will sweep all 3 offices” why is the author supporting Jay Jones and what he said/did? He will lose because voters don’t want someone accused or convicted of a crime.

    Miyares will win by 1% based on the trends. Jones is doing 10% worse than Spanberger.

  37. Meanwhile, in Canada…

    https://globalnews.ca/news/11510996/chris-dentremont-resigns-conservative-caucus/

    Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont resigns from Conservatives, joins Liberals
    By Sean Boynton Global News
    Posted November 4, 2025 6:08 pm
    Updated November 4, 2025 7:30 pm

    Longtime Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont said Tuesday he has resigned from the Conservative caucus to join the Liberals, becoming the first parliamentarian to cross the floor since April’s election.

    In a statement issued by the Liberal Party, d’Entremont said the federal budget unveiled Tuesday “hits the priorities I have heard most in my riding, to build strong community infrastructure and grow a stronger economy.”

    “That is why I am joining the Government caucus,” he added.

    D’Entremont said he informed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer and Speaker of the House of Commons Francis Scarpaleggia of his resignation after the tabling of the budget.

    Two sources in the Conservative caucus confirmed the news of d’Entremont’s resignation to Global News earlier in the day. One of the sources said the resignation was due to a “personal grievance.”

    D’Entremont served as deputy House Speaker from 2021 until the April election and did not get support from the Conservative caucus for his bid to become the Speaker this spring.

    …………………

    The move comes after d’Entremont told Politico earlier Tuesday he was considering crossing the floor to join the Liberals, and would make a decision after reading the budget.

    Poilievre declared in the House of Commons that Conservatives would not support the budget after it was presented by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

    D’Entremont’s move increases the Liberals’ seat count in the House of Commons to 170.

    However, the minority government will still need two more votes or abstentions to pass its budget amid Conservative opposition.

  38. “@Katich – why are you bothering trying to engage with “PP”? ”

    Hey, just their kink, and not hurting anyone. Probably makes PP feel more included. Word compost to feed the residen VI bot ?? 🙂

    Will be interesting the fallout from the various ballots on now in the US. I really do not think that there will be any joy in it for Trump, but he doesnt want joy, just power.

    I suspect he will use the follow up to change the Fillibuster rules (he doesnt care about ever being in minoroty, just HIS power NOW!!). Then start his drones in Congress, Senate and the Supreme Court on a rapid fire program of legislative change.

    Rapid is essential , so that any opposition to any of the measures is fragmented and continually getting bombed with the next egregious issue. Confusion and Lies, right up to the mid-terms next November ….. by which time MAGA /Trump/Repugs have gotten enough lower profile but important changes made that they can ever lose power again. 🙁

    That said, the Dems can combat that tactic by not getting bogged down on any one issue and focusing on issues they own …… Cost of Living $ / Health …… and getting back the tax cuts to the rich. 🙂

    Dangerous, interesting times.

  40. LOL

    I’m at Andrew Cuomo’s election night watch party, at the Ziegeld Ballroom in midtown Manhattan. In its own words, Ziegfeld Ballroom is a “luxury event venue built on Broadway’s golden era”. I do not know what that means.

    There are no supporters here yet – they’re due to arrive at 8.30pm. They will be greeted by two bars. I have just confirmed that the booze is free. There are circular tables dotted around the edge of the room, each clad in a long black table cloth, and each with three lit candles in the middle. It’s like they’re preparing for a mass seance.

    When I arrived the song Sending Out An SOS was playing. Is the campaign sending out secret messages through music? If it is, the messages are confusing: Blame It on the Boogie was on next.

    Guardian live.

  43. NBC News
    JD Vance’s half brother loses mayoral race
    Avatar
    Megan Lebowitz
    Democrat Aftab Pureval has won re-election as Cincinnati’s mayor, beating JD Vance’s half brother, Cory Bowman, AP projects.

    Pureval, Bowman and another candidate, Brian Frank, faced off in an initial race in May. Frank came in third and was eliminated ahead of November’s race.

  47. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 1:07 pm
    “Arange,
    Seems as though your predicted Virginia and NJ margins were way off.”

    Why do you think I focus on predicting the winner instead of the margin?

    Maybe you could make your own predictions, instead of always putting a negative spin on everyone else.

  49. Arange,
    I don’t put a ‘negative spin on everyone else’. Maybe you shouldn’t readily believe what people say about people who you don’t know?
    So it seems like your keys are working. Let’s see how they go when they have a bigger test in 2026.

  50. NBC News projects that Democrats will retain control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, as voters approved the retention of three Democratic justices.

    This maintains the Democrats’ 5-2 majority on the state’s high court.

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