Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

A collapse in Sussan Ley’s approval drives the Coalition’s worst primary vote in the history of Newspoll, as One Nation continues to surge.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks finds no abatement in the Coalition’s loss of support to One Nation, with the former down four on the primary vote since the last poll to 24% and the latter up four to 15%. This smashes records at both ends: the Coalition’s 27% in the previous poll was already their worst ever, while One Nation’s previous record was 13%. Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 36% and 11% respectively, with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 57-43. Sussan Ley’s approval rating has tumbled seven points to 25%, while her disapproval is up nine to 58%. Anthony Albanese is at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, both up one from last time, and leads 54-27 on preferred prime minister, out from 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1265.

James Campbell of News Corp also reported yesterday on a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which had gone quiet since markedly overstating Coalition support in its polling before the May federal election. It found Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31% and One Nation 10%, with no result provided in the report for the Greens. The poll also found 35% holding that the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 52% for wrong direction; that 22% now rate immigration “one of the most important issues they want the federal government to focus on”, compared with 11% in February 2024.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,477 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. ‘DPR of CBR says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 7:29 pm
    ………….
    Yep. It is not the Dems who are trying to starve people into submission by way of SNAP deprivation. It is Trump, the GOP and the MAGA maniacs.

  2. I agree with everything A_E and Upnorth have said about Singapore. And I’d note that LKY took it from a place where in the 1960s much of the population was malnourished to a situation in which their lifestyle is the envy of much of the world.

    They do have a growing problem in trying to exercise control over an influx of entitled and disruptive mainland Chinese, while simultaneously trying to maintain a good relationship with the PRC.

    But I reckon it’s a great place. A benevolent autocracy. Credit to Lee.

    And credit to Mahathir Mohamad, who is now 100 years old and still going strong, for also taking his neighbouring country a long way forward over the same period. Although he never had much of a relationship with either LKY or PJK.

    There are far less well-governed parts of the world than the Malay Peninsula. Take the USA for instance.

  3. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 7:26 pm
    Nationals leader David Littleproud and senior Liberals have held secret talks on how to harmonise the Coalition’s energy policies after the junior partner’s decision to ditch net zero triggered a week of leadership turmoil for Sussan Ley. The meeting on Wednesday evening discussed the potential mechanisms to bring down emissions and how pro-climate moderates could be placated over their concerns on climate mitigation, according to sources familiar with the meeting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sussan-ley-vows-her-leadership-will-survive-political-killing-season-20251105-p5n7tp.html
    ______________________________

    Thanks, Hh.

    That’s a bit awkward for Ms Ley. Also, this bit is amusing:

    “Senior Liberals were also briefed by 19-year-old nuclear advocate William Shackel in a meeting of the party’s energy policy working group on Wednesday.”

    > This kid says the stupidest things; they’d be better off asking pp to brief them.

  4. Herald Sun 05/11
    Police chief Mike Bush is under fire for misleading Victorians about his use of the force’s air wing amid revelations he took another undeclared flight and his wife even went up for a “joyride”.
    _______________________
    Not another dud.
    His lying is getting into Ashton territory and he’s only been in the job 6 months.

  5. Tim Ayres’ speech at yesterday’s Australian Aluminium Council’s Aluminium ‘Can’ Dinner was interesting. Here’s an extract:

    It’s worth remembering why Australia wanted a mine-to-market capability in aluminium in the first place.

    At the height of the Second World War, with supply chains disrupted by conflict in this region, government and industry realised how important this capability was for Australian military and civilian life.

    For food preparation and storage, vehicle and aircraft manufacturing, and much else.

    Australia chose to equip itself with capabilities in aluminium smelting from 1955, beginning with Bell Bay; bauxite mining from the 1960s, beginning with Alcoa’s project at Jarrahdale in 1963; alumina refining from 1963 beginning with Kwinana; and fabrication capability across the economy during the post-war years.

    A lot of what passes for debate about this sector in 2025 misses that great industrial history.

    And we’ve made choices to keep value adding onshore while so many other mineral products were shipped overseas unprocessed.

    Much of that was led by state governments using publicly owned and built generating capability to secure long term energy contracts, locking in industrial investment in aluminium smelting.

    Aluminium, alumina and bauxite have always served a national interest and economic resilience objective for Australia.

    And they still do.

    https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/timayres/speeches/speech-australian-aluminium-councils-aluminium-can-dinner

  6. “Senior Liberals were also briefed by 19-year-old nuclear advocate William Shackel in a meeting of the party’s energy policy working group on Wednesday.”
    _______________
    Yes, that is amusing. I feel sorry for the kid being exposed to so many morons at once.

  7. DPR of CBR

    I’ve been following the US Government shutdown a bit, with the Democrats refusing to compromise on Health costs (Medicare and certain “Obamacare” provisions”.

    John Oliver did a deep dive into this last week (and John Stewart had a similar but cut-down version). The headline numbers are just staggering. Noting that costs vary state to state (I don’t know by how much), but they gave examples of a couple earning $90-odd k per year having to find anywhere between $15000 and $25000 *extra* to fund their health insurance if the bill is passed. Not total, extra. Who – on middling incomes – can find a lazy $20 grand every year to keep their insurance up to date? A “cost of living” hike in the most literal sense.

    Due to the bogus conditions around pre-existing conditions some people won’t be able to get insurance even if they could fund it. A separate issue, but still infuriating.

    Part of me wonders what would have happened if the Democrats had just passed the bill and watched MAGA support in the red states implode. Wondering aside, for any party positioning itself as progressive, this is a hill they should be willing to die on. So while the situation with SNAP and so on is hurting the poor as of right now, the longer term consequences of caving now would be disastrous for them (both the people in need of health coverage and the Democrats).

    Great post. I am also wondering about the cost to so many people of continuing the government shutdown, but to let the legislation go through would cause unspeakable and irreversible hardship to so many Americans.

  8. In social media posts Tuesday, Trump claimed without evidence that there was widespread fraud surrounding California’s Proposition 50 ballot measure, a Democratic-led effort to change the state’s congressional map in response to Republican-led redistricting in Texas. He also insulted Jewish voters who supported Zohran Mamdani in New York City, and alleged that energy costs and crime would spike if Democratic gubernatorial candidates won in New Jersey and Virginia.

    Dude needs some new lines.

  10. meher b

    And credit to Mahathir Mohamad, who is now 100 years old and still going strong, for also taking his neighbouring country a long way forward over the same period. Although he never had much of a relationship with either LKY or PJK.

    There are far less well-governed parts of the world than the Malay Peninsula. Take the USA for instance.

    And a big shout out to Malaysia from me for their plans to end the death penalty. The first in South East Asia?

  11. So why don’t the American farmers, who have so much unsold stock in their silos, warehouses and rotting in their fields, organise a good old American trucking convoy and take their food to the food banks to help feed the Americans who are going hungry because their SNAP benefits are being withheld by the Rethuglicans? Two birds, one stone.

  12. Nath

    “Senior Liberals were also briefed by 19-year-old nuclear advocate William Shackel in a meeting of the party’s energy policy working group on Wednesday.”

    I have never heard of William Shackel, despite being a physicist, so I sought more information: According to the Daily Mail,, from three years ago:

    Year 11 Brisbane boy William Shackel, 16, has drawn national publicity in recent months with his Nuclear for Australia campaign group.

    Nuclear for Australia is an independent, non-registered information campaign that advocates for the ban on nuclear energy in Australia to be lifted.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12083987/Peter-FitzSimons-calls-William-Shackel-campaigns-nuclear-energy-Australia.html

    Perhaps young William Shakel has learned a lot in the last three years (between 16 and 19), but getting input on your nuclear policy from basically a high school student (perhaps 1st year university?) really seems to be scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    Has Ziggy given up on nuclear?

  13. Nath

    “ Senior Liberals were also briefed by 19-year-old nuclear advocate William Shackel in a meeting of the party’s energy policy working group on Wednesday.”
    _______________
    Yes, that is amusing. I feel sorry for the kid being exposed to so many morons at once.”
    ———————————
    +1 But also isn’t it farcical to present a first year uni undergraduate as an expert on nuclear power? The field normally takes post grad engineering or science quals to begin working in.

    Shackel must be a front for someone. Are they using him because no qualified professional would take the gig?

    At least what Greta Thunberg said about climate change was technically correct.

  14. Aaron Rupar‬
    ‪@atrupar.com‬

    LEAVITT: It’s absolutely true that there’s fraud in California’s elections

    Q: What’s the evidence of that?

    LEAVITT: It’s just a fact

    FMD!

    Didn’t I predict that this is what they’d do?

  16. “This kid says the stupidest things; they’d be better off asking pp to brief them.”
    Back in February these nuclear shills paid for by coal loving billionaires in an organisation that is directly linked to Liberal Party and coal energy operatives sent a 20 year old Miss America contestant with zero experience to lecture the country in order to support Dutton’s election campaign.

  17. ‪Barack Obama‬
    ‪@barackobama.bsky.social‬

    Congratulations to all the Democratic candidates who won tonight. It’s a reminder that when we come together around strong, forward-looking leaders who care about the issues that matter, we can win. We’ve still got plenty of work to do, but the future looks a little bit brighter.

    #Obama28

  18. Ghost Of Whitlam says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 8:38 pm
    “This kid says the stupidest things; they’d be better off asking pp to brief them.”
    Back in February these nuclear shills paid for by coal loving billionaires in an organisation that is directly linked to Liberal Party and coal energy operatives sent a 20 year old Miss America contestant with zero experience to lecture the country in order to support Dutton’s election campaign.

    Do they honestly think that some fresh-faced, enthusiastic young puppy will make people love Nuclear?

    I guess they’ve tried everything else. 🙄

  19. Art 153 of the Malaysian Constitution allows for systematic discrimination for Bumi Putras. This translates in practice into systematic discrimination against non Bumis.

  20. Will Shackel was one of the Coalition’s main nuclear cheerleaders last term. He regularly featured on Sky and other Murdoch media; 7:30 even had him on one night. He talked about how you could recycle nuclear waste in your yellow bin ….. or something.

  21. From The Guardian:

    …”‘Nationals-lite’: former Liberal president says party would be ‘rewarding standover tactics’ if net zero dumped

    Exclusive: Jason Falinski says cutting net zero would tell young Australians ‘we have given up’ and could have negative impact at next election…”
    ======================
    It is the political equivalent of a machete fight.

  23. nath @ #975 Tuesday, November 4th, 2025 – 9:11 pm

    Only if Omar is coming. I intend to strip the paint off that boy.

    Jeez I’ve really put the wind up you eh

    Anyway didn’t you organise one of these with Griff and then…not show up? So why bother the good folks at their hot pot. Meet you at the Big Prawn. That way most of the pointless CO2 emissions are on you.

  25. How long before Trump gets the DoJ to go after Zohran Mamdani to find some pretext so he can be deported – i mean an immigrant, democrat and a muslim, surprised if be hasn’t been followed by ICE during the campaign

  26. “The American was qualified to talk about nuclear energy.”
    She has zero real world experience in any industry. She is not qualified to come to Australia and lecture us about how we need to do things. Especially not with how godawfully incompetent the US Nuclear Industry has been.

    Dutton’s beloved NuScale VOYAGR SMR in Utah – CANCELLED.

    Vogtle 3 & 4 – $60 BILLION OVER BUDGET.

    Virgil C. Summer Nuclear expansion – CANCELLED. Westinghouse BANKRUPTED. $15 BILLION DOWN THE DRAIN. Consumers slugged with skyrocketing prices to pay for it because the losses were socialised by Republicans.

    And while I’m at it:
    Hinkley Point C UK – 80 BILLION DOLLARS OVER BUDGET.
    Finland Olkiluoto 3- Areva of France (who built it) bankrupted by 20 BILLION DOLLAR overrun.
    Flamanville 3 – 40 BILLION OVER BUDGET. EDF BANKRUPTED and French taxpayers forced into a bailout.

  29. Shackel is probably a well meaning young man and I think it’s important to direct any scorn at the Liberals. They are old enough to know better.

  30. Ghost of Whitlam
    You chose to dismiss someone’s qualifications, something many progressives do when they dislike someone’s opinion, only for the same progressives to love talking about how qualified their favourite people are.

  31. Glad to know that my long held dislike of Gates, from the 80s when he used to crap on non stop about software piracy, was justified.

  32. Just watched “Sovereign” on Prime. Very powerful and based on a true story. Shows the danger these Sovereign Citizens and assorted RWNJ’s can have on society. Was well worth the rental fees.

  33. So what do the Liberals do now?
    Following Republican hatred seems to be a dead end.
    Will the machete’s still be the theme for the next Victorian election.

  35. Victorian Labor are now behind on the two party preferred against a conservative Opposition.

    Battin is onto a winner next year and the Andrews-Allan years will soon be but a bad memory.

  38. Landlubber Vic libs will crash and burn like a Tesla Cybertruck attempting to go up a slight hill, tears of deploreables will fall like pieces of orc helicopter shot down by orc air defence


  39. Landlubber says:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 9:28 pm

    Victorian Labor are now behind on the two party preferred against a conservative Opposition.

    Did AUSpoll6 produce anything other than a nice graphic?
    Did AUS6news actually produce the graphic?

  41. Landlord of the Yearsays:
    Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 9:33 pm
    Jess Wilson could still be the next Victorian Liberal Party Premier.
    _______________________
    Leave her where she is for the minute.
    She has got Symes shitting bricks.

  42. Another year of vic labor until ejection day and they are cooked now and libs will do it easy in VIC.
    Join QLD,TAS and NT .
    Debt heading for $190 billion.

    The head copper is a disaster,joy flights in a police helicopter with wife looking at sheep?

    He is a kiwi!

  46. “You chose to dismiss someone’s qualifications, something many progressives do when they dislike someone’s opinion, only for the same progressives to love talking about how qualified their favourite people are.”
    I don’t dismiss her educational qualification.

    I dismiss her lack of industry experience in regards to qualifying her to talk shit about our country and lecture us, when her own country is in a state of failure.

    What “progressives” do or do not do is irrelevant to me.

    Nice attempt to deflect away from the facts on nuke plant build blowouts.

  47. Vic libs cannot escape the stench of crime, hate, and failure, they will be fumigated on election day and go down as all-time losers in another strong ALP victory that delivers hope to real Victorians.

    Libs leadership heading for IBAC.

  48. It’s a concern that the relatively new Vic Chief Police Commissioner has repeated his error of using police air assets for private use. I heard him apologise following the first occasion, saying it would never happen again. One of the problems of recruiting senior officers from other jurisdictions (in this case, from over the ditch) is that problems often arise among other officers who would normally be in line for the job, and white-anting may result. Overland & Ashton, for instance, were formerly with the AFP & left VicPol under a cloud. Surely there’s a homegrown Victorian who could do the job.

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